ASA Wins

#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener.  That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level.  Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years.  Tyler hardly has any big league experience.  The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here.  He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings!  There is also a great disparity between these two lineups!  Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season!  Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs!  Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs!  Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season.  Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record!  Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run.  Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses.  Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins.  6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season.  That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well.  Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves.  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.