Pitching

As of Tuesday morning the starting pitchers have still not been declared but it looks like Cole Hamels will make the start for the Phillies.

Overall the Dodgers have the edge as they led the Big Leagues not only in overall ERA, but in bullpen ERA. On the other hand the Phillies were ranked 7th overall and 13th out of their bullpen. The weaknesses are obvious in the bullpen as the Phillies had a lot of doubts on who would be closing out games, but those questions have all been resolved if you trust Lidges 2 saves were the real thing against Colorado.

We will likely see Wolf, Padilla, and Kershaw, and possibly Garland or Billingsley if the Dodgers decide to go to a 4 man rotation which is what squads commonly do at this point. While Philadelphia will go with Hamels, Lee, Happ, Martinez, and possibly Blanton. So we have 5 possible pitchers on each team.

Dodgers SP who might struggle:

Randy Wolf – who will be the ace of the Dodgers again gave up 6 ER in Dodgers Stadium in June to the Phillies on 6.1 innings and 8 hits. However, the Phillies are hitting just .261 off Wolf and Wolf owns LH hitters which the Phillies have plenty of.

Jon Garland – Phillies are hitting .309 off him and in two starts this year one, at home and once on the road, he went 11.1 IP allowing 8 ER on 16 hits.

Phillies SP who might struggle:

Joe Blanton -  Dodgers sluggers have a .295 average off Blanton in 129 AB. However, Blanton threw well in his 1 start vs. the Dodgers as he went 6.1 innings and gave up just 1 ER.

Edge: Dodgers

Hitting

Both of these squads have first ballot hall of famers in the middle of their lineups in Manny Ramirez and Ryan Howard. It can be contended that Utley is also a Hall of Famer. Their are two strong deviations between these teams and that is power vs. average. The Phillies are ranked #21 in average while the Dodgers are in the top 5 at #4 in the league. Does that mean the Dodgers are the sounder offensive team? No, not necessarily.  Sometimes in these big games what counts is clutch hitting and a home run late in a game.

The Phillies have the advantage in the power category as they have 224 HR equated to the Dodgers 145. I think the Dodgers have more power than many believe, but it will come into play in this series. While the Dodgers play small ball the Phillies can smash a 3 run HR for a quick offensive explosion. Small ball in my opinion does not always transform into big clutch hitting. If we are talking exclusive clutch hitting you have to give it to the Phillies who came from behind with 2 outs and trailing 4-2 in Game 4 to win 5-4. It was the middle of the lineup that got it done in Howard and Werth.

Edge: Even

Bench

Whenever you have two respectable players coming off your pine like Jim Thome or Juan Pierre you have the two components of a bench player that you desire. Juan Pierre is a guy that can get on base and maybe steal a base. Jim Thome is a guy who can come in a key match up and hit a HR to tie the game or get your team the lead. Philadelphia on the other hand have Miguel Cairo, Ben Francisco and Matt Stairs none of which should frighten the superior Dodgers bullpen.

Edge: Dodgers

Pick: Dodgers in 6 games – Anticipate for the Dodgers to take advantage of this series when they are at home. The Phillies bullpen will really damage them in this match up. The Phillies exposed the Rockies weakness vs. left-handed pitching and this won’t be the case versus the Dodgers as LA hit .270 vs. both lefties and righties, but score +.59 more runs per 9 innings vs. lefties than RHP. Bottom line pitching wins championships and the Dodgers with their pen have the major advantage!

Pitching Match Up (Rick Porcello vs. Scott Baker) Rick Porcello has not been the same pitcher on the road that he has been at home. It’s not a drastic difference with a 3.87 home ERA and an ERA of 4.20 on the road, but he has pitched significantly worse at Minnesota than he has at home against the Twins. In two road starts he is 0-3 giving up 7 ER in 10 IP while allowing 15 hits and 3 BB’s. Twins collectively own a .290 average against Porcello led by Jason Kubel who is 8-11 in his career. Kubel was a major reason why the Twins won on Sunday as he hit two home runs, both three run home runs and went 3-4 with 6 RBI’s! Porcello who is 6-6 on the road and the team was 7-8 in his road starts. Pitching on the turf was not good for Ricky as he had a 6.60 ERA in 3 starts this year on turf. It will be Porcello’s most challenging spot as a rookie in the biggest game of his life facing a Twins team that is 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. right handed starter.

Scott Baker will go for the Twins on Tuesday for the 5th time this year. The 28 year old veteran will go up against the Tigers who he has a 6.75 ERA. I do not believe that the Twins deserve to be at -163, but that’s the odds we roll with on Tuesday. Baker who is 6-5 at home with a 4.55 ERA pitches better on the road despite his team being 10-6 in his home starts. He will have to duplicate what he did against the Tigers in his last outings which was go 5 innings and give up 0 ER on 5 hits and 3 BB’s. Tigers collectively have a .289 average led by Magglio Ordonez who is 18-39 against the RHP. Baker has identical numbers to what Porcello has on the road against the Twins as he has at home. He’s gone 10.2 IP giving up 9 ER on 15 hits.

You might think there is an advantage in the bullpen? However, looking at the match up both bullpens are pitching strong with the Twins having a 2.34 ERA in their last 10 and the Tigers having a 3.58 ERA in their last 10 games. This game is going to come down to one player stepping up and coming up with a big hit. I think both of these pitchers will come out like they did last week, and will pitch quality innings in the biggest game of the year for them. Will the Twins finally over come the Tigers for the division or will the Tigers jump on the plane again to face the New York Yankees?

Check out the free sports picks offered by our expert handicappers to see who they are taking with this game.  If you want a better chance of winning, then Freddy Wills has obviously covered this matchup from every angle.  You can get his premium MLB picks right here at our site.

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Of course, bullpen capabilities are not everything. How else to explain the surprising starts in the National League Central of the Astros and Reds? Houston is without Roger Clemens, yet they are in first place despite a miserable bullpen ERA of 6.30 and 3 blown saves. Cincinnati has been a huge surprise, and relief pitching has not been one of their strengths, with a 4.93 ERA as opponents hit .299 off the pen. If those weaknesses aren’t fixed, it could be detrimental to their winning.

Still, relievers are important to examine from a betting perspective. Ideally, a team should have one or two reliable set up men, preferably at least one a lefty or one who can get out lefty batters, and a reliable closer. For instance, Florida cleaned house in the offseason and their relief staff currently has a poor 4.61 ERA, which is not surprising. San Francisco is hovering around the .500 mark and notice they have a miserable 7.04 ERA and 4 blown saves.

I enjoyed the Indians smacking the Red Sox around this week. Cleveland has a terrific young offense that can smack any pitching staff around. However, in the offseason they cut some of their best relief pitchers, a great strength last season, and the Indians bullpen has a 5.71 team ERA. That partly explains why the Indians are 14-7 over the total: Great offense, suspect relief staff.

A couple of surprises in the National League have been the Rockies and Mets. The Mets bullpen was bad last season, but bringing in Billy Wager has already paid dividends: The Mets relief staff has a 2.44 ERA. They are also the only team in the NL East with a winning record. The Rockies have been surprisingly competitive, with a lot of young players. Notice the Colorado bullpen has a 3.30 team ERA. Colorado is also 11-6 as an underdog!

A starting pitcher may leave the game in the seventh with a 3-1 lead, but what good is that if the bullpen is not reliable? We see this all the time with ace pitchers, who are often laying a big price. They can give the team a strong 7 innings, but in order to collect on a betting ticket, the team has to have that lead when the game is officially over. The Dodgers already miss ace closer Eric Gagne, with 6 saves and 3 blown saves.

Several NL teams are struggling a bit, and two were expected to be better. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of 4.99, The Phillies have a 4.25 relief ERA and the Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.40. Letting go of Wagner has taken a big bite out of the Philadelphia pen.

Which leads me to one of the surprise teams of the American League: The Detroit Tigers. The Tigers relief staff has been very successful, with a 3.13 team ERA, 7 saves, and no blown saves for first-year manager Jim Leyland. Sports bettors take note: The Tigers are 15-6 under the total! Examining starting pitchers and everyday line-ups are essential in betting baseball, but don’t overlook whether the team has reliable set-up men and rested relievers, either. We are living in the age of specialization in baseball, so brush up on your pens!