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Baseball Busts

It’s only May, but already there have been some surprises and some busts this baseball season. Here’s a look at some of baseball’s disappointments.

Pirates: The Pirates weren’t expected to contend for the NL flag yet, but a ton of talented young pitching was supposed to help them improve. It hasn’t happened yet. Pittsburgh is third-worst in team ERA in the National League, and they’ve allowed the most runs. Pittsburgh is a miserable 3-17 on the road!

Angels: The bullpen is strong and there were questions about the starting pitching, but the pitching has been sound, with the 5th best ERA in the American League. Only the Tigers have a better save percentage. But the offense has been the problem, with the third-worst batting average in the AL and the worst on-base percentage (.301). Yes, the Royals have a better on-base percentage than the Angels!

Dodgers: LA has a lot of new faces, including a new manager, for this season. The Dodgers are second in the National League in runs scored, first in on-base percentage, and fourth in the NL in team pitching. Pretty good numbers. Yet, this team is .500 battling the Giants for last place in the NL West. What gives? How about an 0-2 record in extra inning games plus a 4-10 mark (including 0-5 on the road) in one-run games. When Grady Little, the current Dodger manager, took over the Red Sox in 2002, Boston was terrible in one-run and extra inning games, perhaps a trend that has followed him to the NL. Sports bettors take note: The Dodgers have been a strange team at 7-14 as a favorite, but 12-5 as a dog!

Nationals: Washington was 81-81 last season. They had a decent starting threesome on paper with workhorse Livan Hernandez (15-10, 246 IP in 2005), John Patterson and Tony Armas, while adding 2B Alfonso Soriano. Yet, the Nationals have fallen apart, already 10 games out and just 3-10 at home. A major problem: How about 3 saves in 10 save opportunities!

Cubs: The Cubbies were expected to be much better this season, but they’ve been a huge disappointment. The loss of 1B Derek Lee was huge as the offense fell apart after he went out. CF Juan Pierre has been a disappointment along with expected ace Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs are 13th in the NL in team ERA and lead the league in walks allowed, which is amazing when you understand they have control master Greg Maddux in the rotation. And the offense is last in the NL in runs scored. Forget about getting Kerry Wood and Mark Prior back — let’s get back Ernie Banks, Leo Durocher and the Hawk!

Baseball Betting

There are not a lot of people who participate in baseball betting and that’s mostly because it uses money lines and not spreads. It’s really simple once you understand how money lines work and soon you will realize that this is one of the best sports to make money on. So let’s get started on explaining how baseball betting works and then you can read through our extensive database of articles in order to get a better feel for how the game works.
Oddsmakers set a money line in each game, with the favored team having a minus sign in front of their number and the underdog having a plus sign. Let’s take a look:
Kansas City +150
Boston -160

This is a typical line you could possibly see any day of the summer. Here’s how the bet works, if you want to take Kansas City then for every $100 you bet, you can win $150 if KC cashes. On the other hand you are going to have to bet $160 to win $100 on Boston. There are no spreads so it’s just whoever wins the game straight up that day. The books balance the juice using money lines instead of getting equal action on each with spreads.

2006 WhiteSox Repeating

This article is going to take a look at the chances of the 2006 White Sox repeating as World Champions of baseball. Currently the Chicago Whitesox are 1.5 games back from the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central and both of these teams are already distancing themselves from the rest of the pack with the 3rd place Indians 9.5 games out of 1st. The Whitesox appear to be right on track and it has been a surprise start from the Detroit Tigers which has left the south siders playing second fiddle in the AL Central. But last week, the Whitesox took 2 of 3 from Detroit and it seems almost inevitable that they will be at the top of the division come September. It’s never as easy as it seems on paper, but barring serious injuries to their pitching staff, which is unarguably the best in the bigs, you should count on the Whitesox to make it back to the Mecca of Major League Baseball when making your 2006 baseball picks.

If you compare the Sox, with any of the other possible contenders such as the Redsox and Yankees, there is no question that Chicago has the advantage on the mound. And when it comes to being a successful major league team, the mound matters most. In the early going, all 5 of the Whitesox starters have winning records. Contreras is still undefeated and Garcia and Vasquez have already reached the 7 wins mark. When you add Jim Thome’s power to the Whitesox already potent lineup to support this staff, you’ve got yourself a winner, right?

As good as the Sox’s starters are, there are still some questions with the bull pen. Despite his 18 saves, Bobby Jenks hasn’t looked nearly as dominant as he did in last year’s postseason. In a series, with let’s say a healthy Yankees team, I would probably have to give the nod to Rivera’s experience and by that time, the constantly improving Farnsworth could be the game’s best set up man with his closer-like stuff. It’s almost cliché to say, because the Yankees have been right in the thick of things nearly every year, but the Whitesox will have to worry about this team as they have managed to keep their heads well above water, while enduring the worst injury problems in the league, with players like Andy Phillips stepping up. The Yankees first half injuries could pay dividends down the stretch as it has given them the opportunity to develop their talent. The Whitesox bench won’t be able to save them if Konerko, Thome, or Dye were to go down.

Last season we saw a dominant Whitesox team get complacent down the home stretch of the season only to be ignited by the surging Cleveland Indians. If it weren’t for Cleveland’s push, the Sox may never have gone on to win the Series. They could have ended up like the St. Louis Cardinals who won the NL Central by a landslide and couldn’t get out of their coasting mode in the postseason. So ultimately, whether the Sox can repeat will be determined by if they are playing their best ball down the stretch of the season. It’s the teams who get hot late that have the best chance to win the title and a dominant pitching staff is the largest factor in catching fire just as it was for the Astros last season who finished 11 games behind the Cards in the division, but rallied to capture the NL Wildcard and ultimately beat St. Louis in the playoffs. The Whitesox staff will keep them in nearly every game the remainder of the season (that’s how good they are), and it will give them a better chance than any recent team has had in repeating as World Series Champions.

2006 Playoff Baseball Schedules

October means post-season MLB action and we have the 2006 playoff baseball schedules to get you ready.

What do five straight defeats get you? For the Detroit Tigers, it gets you the Wild Card berth in the American League, and a date with the New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Detroit capped off their skid by losing 10-8 to the lowly Kansas City Royals in extra innings on Sunday, which gave the Minnesota Twins the AL Central title.?

Detroit will now travel to the Bronx for Game 1 of their American League Division Series on Tuesday, with Nate Robertson set to take on the Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman are set to follow Robertson in the rotation. Mike Mussina will pitch Game 2 for New York, with Randy Johnson going in Game 3 (despite a stiff back) and Jaret Wright slated for Game 4. Here’s the full schedule:

Game 1 - Tuesday, October 3 - Detroit at New York
Game 2 - Wednesday, October 4 - Detroit at New York
Game 3 - Friday, October 6 - New York at Detroit
Game 4 - Saturday, October 7 - New York at Detroit
Game 5 - Sunday, October 8 - Detroit at New York

Meanwhile, the AL Central Champion Minnesota Twins will get home-field advantage in their ALDS against the Oakland Athletics. Game 1 will feature a matchup of two former Cy Young winners in the Twins’ Johan Santana and the Athletics’ Barry Zito. Santana will be followed by Boof Bonser, Brad Radke, and Carlos Silva, while Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren, and Rich Harden will continue the set for Oakland. The full series schedule:

Game 1 - Tuesday, October 3 - Oakland at Minnesota
Game 2 - Wednesday, October 4 - Oakland at Minnesota
Game 3 - Friday, October 6 - Minnesota at Oakland
Game 4 - Saturday, October 7 - Minnesota at Oakland
Game 5 - Sunday, October 8 - Oakland at Minnesota

Over in the National League the New York Mets finished with the top mark, but they’ll be missing stud pitcher Pedro Martinez in the postseason. Martinez is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff, which leaves a big gap in their rotation for their set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Orlando Hernandez will pitch Game 1 for New York, with Tom Glavine in Game 2, and likely Steve Trachsel in Game 3. The Dodgers will have Derek Lowe on the mound in Game 1, with Greg Maddux, Brad Penny, and Hong-Chih Kuo (probably in that order) following him up. The entire Mets/Dodgers series looks like this:

Game 1 - Wednesday, October 4 - Los Angeles at New York
Game 2 - Thursday, October 5 - Los Angeles at New York
Game 3 - Saturday, October 7 - New York at Los Angeles
Game 4 - Sunday, October 8 - New York at Los Angeles
Game 5 - Monday, October 9 - Los Angeles at New York

The St. Louis Cardinals held on to win the NL Central division, but their near-collapse left them with the worst record amongst playoff teams. Cards ace Chris Carpenter will take the mound for St. Louis in Game 1, but because of the tight September races neither club has announced their full rotation for the NLDS. Here is the series schedule:

Game 1 - Tuesday, October 3 - St. Louis at San Diego
Game 2 - Thursday, October 5 - St. Louis at San Diego
Game 3 - Saturday, October 7 - San Diego at St. Louis
Game 4 - Sunday, October 8 - San Diego at St. Louis
Game 5 - Monday, October 9 - St. Louis at San Diego

The American League Championship Series will begin on Tuesday, October 10, while the National League Championship Series is set to get underway on Wednesday, October 11. Game 1 of the World Series is scheduled for Saturday, October 21 in the home stadium of the AL club, with the ’06 postseason ending no later than October 29.

2006 Early Baseball Betting

There were some surprising numbers during the first week of the baseball season with respect to totals. The first week saw more overs than unders on several days. Speculation popped up that perhaps this was going to be a year for hitters, or perhaps the baseball was juiced (because the PLAYERS aren’t going to be juiced anymore, right?) Regardless of any kernels of truths in the speculation, the important point to get from this is that IT’S ONLY ONE WEEK of ACTION!

Let’s not draw too much on one week of play. Most pitchers have only had one start. Some teams haven’t even played a single home game. It’s far too early to be drawing comparisons and conclusions. Baseball, more than any other sport, is a game of patience. One has to approach it that way, not only as a fan but as a handicapper. In football, there are only 16 regular season games, so if a team starts 0-2, that is one-eighth of the season, so you can begin to draw some conclusions about a team’s offense or defense, for instance.

But the baseball season is 162 games long. You can’t look for the Brewers or Tigers to be the dominant teams in the divisions just because of their 5-0 starts, or that the Colorado Rockies are going to have a winning season. Despite an abundance of overs, notice what happened Sunday: The unders dominated 10-6, including 6-2 in the American League. It could, in fact, be a lively ball year with plenty of offense, but it’s far too early to draw these conclusions.

It’s more important to be patient and look carefully at what is going on with each team, such as lineup changes, bullpen strength, defense, injuries and home/road play. For example, Atlanta third baseman Chipper Jones just went on the 15-day disabled list Monday because of a sprained right knee and ankle. The injury wasn`t as severe as the Braves feared, which is good news, but sports bettors need to be focused on injuries and lineup changes with all teams, especially with star players. If the Braves’ offense struggles over the next few weeks, the loss of team leader Chipper could be a factor.

Boston just lost its center fielder Coco Crisp with a finger injury. He will be out at least two weeks, and if it’s fractured it could be a few months. His loss could be important, because he’s been very good as the team’s leadoff hitter, plus he’s been stellar defensively. The loss of a two-way threat like that could alter a team’s production. It was two years ago that the Red Sox had very poor infield defense in the first half of the 2004 season, until they made a trade for SS Orlando Cabrera. As soon as he came aboard, the pitching and defense got so much better, leading a surge that ended with the World Series.

In an earlier article I wrote about how it’s not wise to put too much into last year’s stats, because this is a brand new season, and players don’t always perform the same from year to year, especially pitchers. One example I gave was Chicago White Sox pitcher Jon Garland. Garland blossomed as an ace in 2005, but notice what he did in his first start of 2006: 5.1 innings pitched, 10 hits and 9 earned runs! That’s certainly not an ace, is it? He won’t end this season with an ERA of 15.19, of course, but that’s where it stands now. Looking at last year’s stats are a good GUIDE and starting point, but don’t read too much into it. Building up and examining this season’s stats is far more important.

2006 Baseball Betting Trends

It`s only April, but it`s always a good time to ask: Why? That`s a basic element of professional handicapping. If a sports team is playing good defense, or winning, or hitting the heck out of the baseball, ask why? More important, see if you can find out the reasons why certain things are occurring. Let`s ask why for several surprises early in the baseball season.

Why are the Tigers 5-4? Detroit started 5-0 then lost 4 straight, so they are roughly a .500 team. That doesn`t seem so unusual as it`s been years since the Tigers even approached the playoffs, but this team and some of their stats are very interesting. The Tigers are third in the AL in hitting (a robust .313 average), and leading the AL in home runs and slugging. How about defense? Detroit is No. 1 in fielding with only one error in the first 9 games! Perhaps they have lousy pitching? The Tigers are second in the AL in team ERA. The stats suggest this is a decent team, so perhaps they should be better than .500. The schedule hasn`t been easy, with 6 straight road games to open the season, playing at Texas and then 3 straight losses at home to the defending champion White Sox. Keep an eye on the Tigers, they might be very improved under first-year manager Jim Leyland.

Why are the Rockies 5-1 on the road? For years, Colorado has been a very good team at home in Coors Field, but terrible on the road. The opposite has been true this April. The stats show that the Rockies are 6th in the NL in pitching, third in batting, but fifth-worst in fielding. The pitching staff also has the second fewest strikeouts in the NL. All in all, the stats suggest this Colorado team isn`t that good, which is in line to most preseason prognostications. Don`t look for them to keep playing this well on the road, as it is probably a statistical anomaly more than any dramatic turnaround.

Why are the NY Yankees 6-3 over the total? This one has correlating answers. The offense is outstanding, with newcomer Johnny Damon at leadoff to a gazillion dollar lineup. The pitching staff is, well, old and questionable. Their No. 3 and 4 starters have ERAs of 5.91 and 7.59! The offense leads the AL in runs scored. Don`t be surprised to see a lot more high scoring games with the Yanks this season.

Are the Phillies Really This Bad? Probably not. Philadelphia has had a tough start, but remember this team has come close to the playoffs the last two seasons, winning 84 and 88 games. The schedule hasn`t been kind thus far, facing the Cardinals, the healthy Dodgers and the Braves.

Are the Royals Really This Bad? Ummmm, Yes. Kansas City is already second to last in batting average in the AL, and last in pitching. With Scott Elarton, Denny Bautista and Joe Mays as your one-through-three starters, 100 losses are likely again.

2006 AL Playoff Rotations

We know what the 2006 AL playoff rotations are because the teams could set them up after locking their berths up early. While the race for postseason berths in the National League is going down to the final weekend, the four American League playoff teams have been decided. That means the AL teams can shift their focus to resting starting pitchers and setting up their respective postseason rotations. Here’s a look at the expected starters for each of the four squads.

New York Yankees

Chien-Ming Wang - Has arguably emerged as the team’s ace this season, with several more wins than Mussina and a much better ERA than Johnson (despite the lack of strikeouts). He’ll take to the mound for the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS next week.

Mike Mussina - Mussina looked like he’d get to the 20-win mark two months ago, but a string of hard-luck losses and no-decisions killed his chances. However, his ERA and strikeout/walk ratio are still solid. He’ll get the ball for New York in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Randy Johnson - The Big Unit will pitch for Joe Torre’s squad in Game 3 of the ALDS, and the team is hoping that his bad back can hold up in the month of October. Has seen his ERA rise up to the 5.00 level over the past month, but he can still strike out batters.

Jaret Wright/Cory Lidle - Either Wright or Lidle will go for the Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS, with neither yet announced as the starter. Both have similarly underwhelming records and ERAs this season, although Wright does have an edge in both categories.

Oakland Athletics

Barry Zito - The A’s are expected to send their ace to the mound in Game 1 of the ALDS next week, although they’re hoping that his sub-par month of September doesn’t carry over into October. Zito has an ERA under 4.00 this season, but his walks are up.

Esteban Loaiza - Loaiza’s ERA is close to 5.00 this season, but nevertheless the veteran starter is likely going to pitch in Game 2 of the ALDS. The righthander has had a couple of rough outings lately, but has been pretty solid since the beginning of August.

Rich Harden - Harden has had limited work since returning from the disabled list last week, but the A’s have liked what they’ve seen. Harden should get the ball for Game 3.

Dan Haren - Haren seems to have beaten fellow starter Joe Blanton for the fourth spot in Oakland’s postseason rotation, despite a couple of poor performances last week. Haren leads the Athletics’ staff in strikeouts this year, and has an ERA of just over 4.00.

Detroit Tigers

Kenny Rogers - The veteran Rogers doesn’t strike out as many batters as his fellow Tigers starters, but he’s been as effective as any of them this season. While no announcement has been made by the team, expect him to start in Game 1 of the ALDS.

Jeremy Bonderman - Having reached the 200-strikeout mark this season Bonderman has emerged as a dominant pitcher. Was knocked around by Minnesota a couple of weeks ago (six runs, 5 2-3 innings), but otherwise has been solid over the past month.

Justin Verlander - The rookie righthander has been inconsistent over the past month, with three good outings and three bad ones in his past six starts. Manager Jim Leyland has even admitted that Verlander is tired, and is giving him some rest this weekend.

Nate Robertson - Robertson has been one of the league’s best pitchers over the past month (minus a poor outing against Toronto last week), which is good news for Detroit.

Minnesota Twins

Johan Santana - The Twins would start Santana every game in the playoffs if they could - especially with Francisco Liriano lost for the season. The lefthander is the most dominant starting pitcher in all of baseball, and he’s on his way to another Cy Young.

Boof Bonser - Bonser is expected to get the job of following up Santana in the rotation in Game 2 of the ALDS. The young righthander earned the spot with a good September.

Brad Radke/Matt Garza - Minnesota would prefer to have Radke start in Game 3 of the ALDS, but Garza could get the call if the veteran’s shoulder isn’t up to the playoff task.

Carlos Silva - Radke’s health could determine whether Silva gets a start as well. The righthander has been up-and-down all season, and the Twins can’t have much confidence in him right now (he was knocked around by the O’s and Royals last week).

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