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North Carolina Rutgers Free Picks

Many reasons to like North Carolina over Rutgers on Thursday Night.

A quick glance at Butch Davis debut year, 4-8 (3-5 ACC), leaves one pretty underwhelmed - esp. with paltry offensive punch, and middle of the pack defensive numbers from last years’ squad.

It’d be easy to assume that 18 Starters returning from a 4-8 team would not necessarily result in a higher win total this year - until a deeper look into these players and improvement as year progressed, and analysis of the depth and continuity of the team.
UNC was the 4th youngest team in D-I last year - Florida was youngest, but 18 players return - every player on offense, save SR LG Bishop - whom started 6 games in 06 - one game shy of being labeled as a ‘Returning Starter”.

QB Yates had a misleading poor finish to his RFr year - after he began year with a bang - with top 5 in NCAA after 1st 4 games in passing efficiency - then lost a great deal of velocity and played with bum arm the rest of the year.

Successful off-season surgery has revived Yates - who reportedly had great Fall camp, with as much velocity and touch as ever - and recaptured starting job again after brief QB battle with Cameron Sexton (JR). Yates has underrated receiver corps to throw to, esp. RAC specialist, Brandon Tate - who Davis’ just cannot find enough ways to get ball to - return, tailback, fly sweep, ect….

CLOSE GAMES: NINE OF 11 (D-1) GMS UNC PLAYED WERE DECIDED BY 7 OR <.

Two losses by 37-10 scores were at So Fla and at Wake - both 9-4 teams on road

With the avg team, going 3-6 in close games might be a negative - but -

Davis’ team has shown resiliency after tough defeats and in difficult circumstances:

In 2nd of BTB Roadies, UNC nearly upset VT as +19 dog in Blacksburg after a 37-10 loss at S Fla

UNC beat MD 16-13 (07 Bowl Team), after 37-10 loss at Wake.

UNC’s secondary is very good and underrated -

Great Safety’s:

NFL Prospect Goodard (SR), and

Freshman Def POY, Williams.

UNC also inserts game-ready TOP RANKED JUCO DB, Mel Williams - and

Davis’ trademark shuffling of the deck to maximize his great athletes from middle of the o-depth chart - little pt, to getting them on the filed to play DB, SS, FS has continued with typical instant results -

Davis UNC vastly under-rated and lightening quick Secondary is a who’s who of former Offensive Players:
Left Corner, Converted WR speedster Charles Brown - startered and played in 9 games as TRUE FR ly - is great tackling Corner (had 59 tackles last year - 5 for losses - and a dozen break-ups) and

FS Jolly SO - is former RB

SO Merlett is Jolly’s back-up - but plays on Nickle / Dime - great cover guy (another former RB),

Even the platooning SS, Sarcy (SO) was once a LB!

The long and short of it is that UNC’s re-built secondary has been labeled by many as the fastest most underrated group in NCAA

Phil Steele:

UNC DB’s “….this figures to be the most improved & talented secondaries in the NCAA”.

UNC MATCH-UPS VS RUTGERS:

In Wk 1, Rutgers Rush yards were EVEN MORE lacking than we’d thought they may be with absence of do-it-all Ray Rice’s departure for NFL -

RB - Gaping hole with Rice’s departure a year earlier than planned -

106 yds rushing by Rutgers - regardless of the opp., a dramatic deficiency for any Schiano team….

UNC SECONDARY - VS RUTGER’S SUDDENLY ONE-DIMENSIONAL ATTACK OF QB TEEL | KNIGHTS PASSING GAME is a very significant statistical, match-up advantage for North Carolina

Perhaps a similar problematic aspect for UNC’s offense may be Rutgers’ Secondary - which really is in top 2 or 3 in Big East

The difference is that UNC has an outstanding group of receivers -

TOP NINE RECEIVERS IN UNC STAT BOOK ALL RETURN -

WITH UNC QB YATES 100% RECOVERED -

VERY GOOD BACK-UP QB IN WAIT - Sexton.

1. TWO SUPERB RECRUITING CLASSES IN CHAPPEL HILL FOR DAVIS
2. A ONE YEAR BACK-STEP FOR SCHIANO’S KNIGHTS
3. IT LEADS ME TO STRONGLY LEAN TOWARD HEELS HERE….

WITH A FEW MORE FACTS TO CONSIDER:

1. UNC HAS NOT WON A GAME OUTSIDE OF STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SIX PLUS YEARS!
2. RUTGERS LOPSIDED HOME LOSS TO FRESNO STATE HAS THIS LINE UNDER A TD -

3. IF AND WHEN THIS GETS UP TO UNC +7, I LIKE THE HEELS A WHOLE HELL OF A LOT MORE - BUT

RUTGERS RUNNING GAME INEPTITUDE AND

THE STRENGTHS OF BOTH SECONDARIES LEAVES A MUCH STRONGER WAGER POSSIBILITY of:

-110 TO -130 TEASER, INVOLVING:

1. UNC PLUS DOUBLE DIGITS WITH
2. UNDER HIGH-50′S (NUMBER IS FORTHCOMING, BUT OUGHTA BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 48 -53, YOU’D THINK)

FIRST SELECTION:

NORTH CAROLINA +5 | 0.5 UNIT

(IT’LL NUDGE TO 1 UNIT AT 6.5, GLADLY BUY HALF POINT ON ROAD, AND 1.5 UNIT AT +7 - WISHFUL)

New Mexico State Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#116 – New Mexico St. Aggies 0-12 SU; 2-10 ATS

Fargo’s Take A high-flying passing attack was supposed to happen for the Aggies in 2005 but it never got off the ground. This was a triple option team the year prior so trying to completely revamp the offense in one year was a stretch. Things should be better in the second year of the Hal Mumme experiment but it’s the defense that is the bigger concern. The Aggies were next to last in total defense and 116th in scoring defense, giving up 38.8 ppg. The stop unit should improve with six starters coming back, five of which are seniors but in order for this team to be successful, it will have to improve immensely. This will be New Mexico St.’s second year in the WAC where anything is possible so if the offense can find a groove, this could be a fun team to watch with a fair share of shootouts taking place. It is almost assured that this team will not be winless again since two 1-AA teams are on the schedule but a couple other wins within the conference must be attained or Mumme could be in trouble only after two years.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The Mumme aerial show never happened in 2005 as the offense tallied more than 30 points on only one occasion, which ended up being a one-point loss to Idaho. The best athlete on the offense, Paul Dombrowski, is gone but the rest of the receiving corps remains intact for new quarterback Chase Holbrook, who has the tools and the size to be a star. He sat out last year because of transfer regulations but he played under Mumme at Southeastern Louisiana so even though he is a sophomore, he has been in this system for three seasons. The running game gets everyone back and will be led by Justine Buries, who rushed for 779 yards and five touchdowns in the limited running attack offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is where the Aggies need to get better quickly and the going might be tough despite the return of six very experienced starters, a key thing to remember when making your sports picks. Replacing NCAA leading tackler Jimmy Cottrell will be impossible and his leadership will be sorely missed. Even though the defense lost three starting linebackers in total, the depth and experience at that position is still fairly strong. It needs to be as this team allowed 216.3 ypg on the ground last year, 6th worst in the country. The secondary is another concern with Matt Griebel needing to be replaced at free safety. Playing in the WAC means facing a lot of excellent passing teams so getting into too many shootouts will not be beneficial.

Schedule The schedule last year did the Aggies no favors as non-conference games against UTEP, Colorado, New Mexico and Cal started them out 0-4 and left them barely breathing. Colorado and Cal are out and SE Louisiana and Texas Southern are in so New Mexico St. should be 2-1 heading into its bye. The two best chances for WAC victories are against Idaho and Utah St. but both of those come on the road. This is the first time in the history of the school that the Aggies will have seven home games so there could be some surprises in the mix especially when the schedule has only four teams that made it to a bowl game in 2005.

You can bet on… Two wins. If the Aggies cannot grab both of those wins against the 1-AA teams, they have no right playing in 1-A. With the easy slate and seven home contests, New Mexico St. has a legitimate shot at four or five wins but the preseason ranking is still near the bottom because they haven’t proved anything yet. It could very well turn into another catastrophe if Holbrook can’t get the job done. New Mexico St. was one of the worst teams against the spread last season, covering only twice and losing money in its last eight games. As bad as this team was, they were getting single digits in their last three contests but don’t expect to see that this year.

NorthTexas College Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#111 – North Texas Mean Green 2-9 SU; 4-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take Last year was a tough pill to swallow for the Mean Green faithful as it went from being the four-time defending Sun Belt champion to finishing in last place in the conference with a 2-5 record. Total offense and total defense were equally as bad but things should definitely be better in 2006. The running game is healthy and a defensive switch to the 3-4 will improve its horrid rushing defense from last season. Everything will depend however on the play of the quarterback and the bad news is that there is no set starter in place yet. Of its five conference losses in 2005, three were by a field goal, another by four points and the last by a touchdown. It shows that while competitive, it didn’t have what it takes to win those close games and that comes back to the quarterback. Things can only get better for North Texas as it should use last season as a learning experience and go from there.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The running game was a huge disappointment last season as the offense had not only one but two former national rushing champions with Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas. Cobbs is gone but Thomas is back and he is back healthy as hamstring problems limited him to only 361 yards last season. In order for the offense to prosper, the running game needs to regain its 2004 form because the quarterback situation is not getting any better. Daniel Meager started all 11 games last season but threw for only 941 yards and four touchdowns. Another sophomore, Matt Phillips, will be pushing him for the starting nod. The receivers are some of the best in the conference but it won’t matter much if no one can get them the ball, this of course factors into our handicappers sports picks.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 While the offense couldn’t run last year, the defense couldn’t stop the run as it allowed 220.9 ypg which ranked 114th in the nation. The linebackers are the strength of the defense this season so those rushing numbers should decrease as long as a formidable defensive line is put into place. The new scheme alone should knock a good chunk of those yards off. In the defensive backfield, things could be a little dicey. Teams didn’t need to throw much on the Mean Green last season for obvious reasons but that could change this year and with an unproven and extremely young secondary, we could see a reversal of what occurred last year. Overall, the defense isn’t going to improve that much.

Schedule The three top teams in the Sun Belt from last season all host North Texas and that is discouraging news for the Mean Green. They do however get Middle Tennessee, Florida International and Florida Atlantic at home to make up for it. This team never shies away from a tough non-conference slate and that is the case again this season with games at Texas, Tulsa and Akron. The last two might not look intimidating but both should win their respective divisions within their conferences. Home games against SMU and Louisiana Tech round out the non-conference schedule.

You can bet on… North Texas will try and re-establish itself as one of the best running teams in the country simply because it has no other choice. Run and you win, if you don’t you lose plain and simple. If the young quarterback(s) can take a big step this year, North Texas can win the SBC but that is a big if and that is why this is still a middle of the conference team. Fouts Field used to be an intimidating place but a 0-5 SU record and 1-4 ATS mark last year took away a lot of luster. Thus, we could see some small numbers in home games once again but possibly see the results reversed this season if they can rediscover the formula for winning.

Sports Predictions

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Temple College Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview in order for you to improve your sports betting picks this season.

#119 – Temple Owls 0-11 SU; 5-6 ATS

Fargo’s Take Temple was easily the worst team in football last season but if there is any good news from that, it is that the Owls have no where to go but up. Temple finished 114th in the country in total defense and dead last in total offense, getting outscored by an average of 35.5 ppg. Seven touchdowns per game is impossible to make up and that will certainly make first year coach Al Golden’s job that much more difficult. Getting rid of Bobby Wallace was the best move it could have done but he put the program so deep into a hole that it could take years for it to recover. After spending last season as an Independent, Temple will compete in the MAC this season and that could be good for a couple wins at some point. One very encouraging sign is that the Owls incoming class was rated the best in the conference by numerous sources. Unfortunately, it won’t make a huge impact this year.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 This offense was the worst in the nation last year as it was the only team in all of I-A that averaged single digits in points. The Owls failed to top 17 points in any game and they scored a touchdown or less six times. The offense will be under the direction of George DeLeone who has 35 years of coaching experience so his leadership should benefit right away. The running game will be important since there is little experience at quarterback with three sophomores competing for the starting position. Expect a slight improvement but nothing off the charts.

Returning Starters on Defense – 3 Similar to the offense, the defense was horrible in 2005, allowing fewer than 34 points only once while giving up at least 450 total yards of offense in eight of its 11 games. With just three players returning on the unit, it could actually be beneficial starting from scratch. There is some decent experience returning in the secondary and at linebacker but the entire defensive front needs to be replaced. Under new defensive coordinator Mark D’Onofrio, the Owls will be switching to a new 3-4 defense with multiple coverage formations and fronts.

Schedule A switch to a MAC slate is a definite plus for Temple who faced seven bowl teams on its 2005 schedule. Six MAC contests are on the schedule starting right off with a game at Buffalo in the opener. The Owls get three home games against Bowling Green, Kent and Central Michigan, the latter two being winnable contests. The non-conference schedule is a bear as they face five bowl teams along with an improved Vanderbilt squad. Louisville and Clemson are the two home games from the non-conference portion, neither of which should even be close.

You can bet on… The first game is usually the most important game for most teams but it is even more so for the Owls. The game at Buffalo is the surest thing to a win so if they lose that contest, it could easily send the team in yet another downward spiral. A win, which would be the first in 12 games, could give this team enough confidence to pound out a three-win season. Since 2003, Temple is 1-26 against 1-A teams with Syracuse being the only victim two years ago. That is not a good track record for success but the Owls have gone 18-13-2 against the number over the last three years so while they are not a good team on the scoreboard, they have put money in the pockets of their backers thanks to getting an inordinate number of points. Another profitable year in 2006 is a definite possibility.

MiddleTenn College Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#112 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-7 SU; 5-6 ATS

Fargo’s Take The Blue Raiders will have a lot of new looks in 2006 – a new head coach, a new playing surface, new uniforms and hopefully a whole new attitude. Winning has not been a theme in Murfreesboro for the last four seasons and that led to the departure of head coach Andy McCollum and the hiring of Rick Stockstill to take his place. Stockstill has been around a long time and has worked under some of the best head coaches around so he does bring in a winning philosophy. Middle Tennessee brings back a lot on offense and should be improved in that area. Defensively, it was one of the best in the country last season but there are a lot of holes to fill this year due to graduation and injuries. The Blue Raiders have been huge underachievers over the past few years as they were talked about as being one of the best but never got it done. It will take some overachieving this year to make it work. Academic penalties have hurt the incoming class so depth could be a big concern.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Middle Tennessee averaged only 19.1 ppg last season as it was held to 10 or fewer points on five different occasions. Senior quarterback Clint Marks returns and he has the game to be the best quarterback in the conference but has yet to prove it. He threw only eight touchdown passes a season ago and with numerous question marks at the receiver position, he will have to step it up to be more productive. The running game looks good with Eugene Gross leading the way behind a very experienced line. Stockstill is considered an offensive-minded coach but he has served as high as offensive coordinator only once and that was with the 2003 East Carolina Pirates who ended up being one of the worst offenses around. The difference is that there is talent here.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 A repeat performance from last year’s defense is not likely as there are simply too many losses to deal with. The defensive line took the biggest hit as there is not a senior around on the two-deep chart. The secondary is also without a senior as well but it has one of the best cover corners in the conference with Bradley Robinson. Experience is also prevalent at the safety spots. Similar to what Idaho is implementing on defense this year, the Blue Raiders are also going with speed to make up for some of the shortcomings. While the defense won’t be nearly as good, don’t expect a huge drop-off either as there is still enough around to remain competitive.

Schedule Don’t expect too much success with the schedule that is on the plate of this team as it is brutal. Non-conference games at Maryland, Oklahoma and South Carolina are next to impossible as is a neutral site game with Louisville. It will come down to the Sun Belt slate and while it certainly is not a power conference, it doesn’t set up very well for the Blue Raiders. The four toughest games in the conference schedule are on the road but this team went 3-3 away from home last season (2-1 SBC) so winning on the road might not be a problem after all.

You can bet on… A lot of our handicappers will be putting out sports picks with the moneyline win over Tennessee Tech is a guarantee unless Middle Tennessee decides to look ahead to its game at Oklahoma the following week. The Blue Raiders have not had a winning season in five years but they have won four or more games every season showing how close they were to being a very good team. They finished with a losing mark against the number and that was due to the difficulty of getting it done at home where they went 1-4 both SU and ATS. The four losses were by a combined 23 points, so reverse those and the Blue Raiders could be defending a conference title this season. They aren’t however and it won’t happen this year either.

Lower College Football Betting Totals

The college football season is just a week away and some new rule changes are being implemented this year which may have a dramatic impact on lowering college football betting totals. It is believed that these changes will shorten games up to 15 plays, which could drastically change where totals are set and how bettors should play them.

The idea behind these new rule changes is to speed up the game, as five of the six major conferences average game times of over 3.5 hours. I feel this is a needed step and hope that they will continue to adopt more NFL-style rules pertaining to clock stoppage. This will make the game more enjoyable for fans, television viewers, and even network executives.

Here’s a look at the major rule changes:

Rule Change #1: The clock will start on kickoffs when the ball is kicked instead of when the receiving team touches the ball. This is not a big change and should have very little impact on the outcome of the game. But coaches will have to adjust and this could shave around three or four plays off each contest.

Rule Change #2: On changes of possession, the clock will start when the referee starts the 25-second play clock. This will have more of an impact on the games since 25 seconds will be able to run off the clock and teams will have to utilize their timeouts in a different fashion. Essentially, a team will be able to run the time off the clock four times during a set of downs instead of three. With teams being given only three timeouts each half, there will be one occasion where they will not be able to stop the clock.

Since there will be less plays, one may be smart to take a look at totals early in the season, before the oddsmakers have a chance to properly adjust them to the aforementioned rules. Often, traditional passing conferences such as the MAC or PAC-10 see totals near 70 points. I have to wonder if there will be enough plays for them to approach this number. Only time will tell, but my guess is no.

These rule changes had some coaches, such as Oregon’s Mike Bellotti, up in arms. I still believe he is overreacting the way only coaches can. They may have to implement some new strategies - such as taking five-yard penalties to save timeouts - but I feel this is a start of better things to come in the future.

If I had my way, I wish college football would adopt all of the NFL rules, which would shorten game times to a respectable three-plus hours. This includes shorting halftime to 15 minutes and not stopping the clock on first downs, which is too much of an advantage for the offensive team and allows them numerous built-in timeouts. The structure needs to be set so that offenses need to utilize the sidelines more, and also it needs to be set up so that keeping your timeouts takes priority over moving the ball haphazardly downfield.

I hope this is a start of many changes to come in the college football landscape. After watching numerous bowl games go four-plus hours, I feel something needed to be done. I hope you enjoy the 2006 season and together let’s have a great year!

Kent State College Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#114 – Kent State Golden Flashes 1-10 SU; 3-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take Last year was not pleasant for the Golden Flashes and things aren’t expected to be too much better in 2006. In order to win, teams must be able to run the football and that is something Kent St. was not able to do. It finished dead last in 1-A in rushing offense as it averaged only 45.9 ypg which was close to 30 yards less per game than the next closest team. The good news is that Michigan St. transfer Tony Howard is eligible so an improvement is likely. Consistency at quarterback is a must, another thing that was not on the field a season ago. Defensively, the Golden Flashes were near the bottom of the rankings in both scoring defense and rushing defense. A lack of experienced linebackers will certainly not help the latter. Last season, Kent St. won just one game and that came against 1-AA SE Missouri St. but if there was any good out of the 10 losses, it was that four of those came by a touchdown or less. Five winnable games dot the schedule but four of those are on the road.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 While the running game was a disaster last season, it is not the biggest concern coming into 2006. Injuries to the top five backs did not help things and new talent is coming in this year to move things forward. The offensive line is going to improve thanks to a vigorous offseason program so it all comes down to quarterback Michael Machen. He was inconsistent last season with two 300-yard passing games but his 18 interceptions killed the offense. After scoring 30 or more points three times in its first six games, Kent St. managed only 40 points in its final five games combined. A lot of experience returns so improvement should be anticipated, a key thing to remember when making college football picks.

Returning Starters on Defense – 9 Because of the inconsistent play of the offense, the defense had it back against the wall much too often. Not only do nine starters return, but Pittsburgh transfer Damian Matuschek will be a big addition to the defensive line. The secondary allowed the 24th fewest amount of passing yards in the country last season but a lot of that can be attributed to teams not needing to throw the ball. Only seven seniors are part of the two-deep rotation showing just how young this team is so more growing pains are inevitable. Turning the ball over was a regular occurrence but taking the ball away was not as the Golden Flashes finished 109th in turnover margin.

Schedule The schedule does not get any easier this season even though the MAC slate is one of the easiest you could ask for. The problem is that the three easiest conference games are on the road along with non-conference games at Army and at Temple. Minnesota is the first Big Ten team ever to invade Dix Stadium and that happens to be the first game of the season. A trip to Virginia Tech is also on the schedule which is sandwiched between three games at the end of the season that can all be won. The problem is that Kent St. could be 1-7 heading into that stretch, meaning the fight will be gone.

You can bet on… No win is guaranteed this season like it was last year when SE Missouri St. was on the schedule. The Golden Flashes play five games that they have a chance of taking but the schedule sets up where four of those contests are on the road. However, those are the games to look for some value since they will likely be getting a fair amount of points yet will matching up well. Kent St. covered only three times last season so we should see some progress against the number even though it may not be reflected in the overall win-loss record.

Florida International College Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#115 – Florida International Golden Panthers 5-6 SU; 5-4 ATS

Fargo’s Take The Golden Panthers seemed to have a successful season last year but the five victories to their credit were nothing to brag about. Two of those wins came against 1-AA teams Florida A&M and Western Kentucky while two other Sun Belt wins were by a combined six points. The five wins can certainly give the team some confidence but the schedule is much more difficult and matching those five wins just isn’t going to happen. The offense should be slightly better in 2006 as it caught fire near the end of the season and Florida International returns 2nd Team SBC quarterback Josh Padrick, who led the conference in passing yards per game. The big question mark is the defense, where six players are returning but it could not make a difference. Reason being is that the secondary will likely not be improved and it was a horrible unit last year. With any other Sun Belt team, there is a reason for optimism because any improvement could mean a conference title and a bowl game but this team is only in its fifth year of 1-A so there are still plenty of depth issues.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Padrick is the heart and soul of this offense and the team will only go as far as he can take them. His numbers were excellent last season and they improved as the season went along meaning he will be coming into 2006 with a ton of confidence. He gets his leading catchman back along with tight end Samuel Smith, another 2nd team SBC player. The running game is adequate meaning that the offense has the chance to be a real solid unit and put up plenty of points. They will likely need to win a lot of games via shootout since the defense is not going to be holding many teams to a few number of points remember that when going with totals for your NCAA football picks.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 If somehow the secondary does a 180 and turns into a good unit, the Golden Panthers could very well win the conference. The problem is that it isn’t going to happen. Two starters return in the defensive backfield which based on last season’s 67 percent completion rate allowed, that isn’t a good thing. The defensive line and linebackers are stocked with returnees and some decent depth but it isn’t good enough to make up for the secondary. The defense allowed 29.4 ppg last season and that was with two games against teams from a lower class. With a much more difficult schedule, that average is sure to rise this year.

Schedule The Golden Panthers went the route a lot of smaller conference teams do and that is to play the big boys, get crushed but collect a huge paycheck from it. Florida International got rid of the patsies and signed on Miami (Fla.), Alabama, South Florida, Maryland and Bowling Green. The game against the Falcons is the only one not on the road and it’s a likely guarantee that it walks away 0-5 from that non-conference slate. Four of the Golden Panthers seven conference games are at home including frontrunners UL-Lafayette and Troy. A road win here or there could mean possible contention late in the season.

You can bet on… As promising as some aspects look on this team, this is still a young team that does not have the overall talent to compete for a conference title. The non-conference slate is extremely difficult and those losses could do some serious damage because they will be so large. The Golden Panthers did finish with a positive record against the number last year but that will be tough to match given the much more difficult schedule. They will be getting a ton of points and while the offense can keep the back door cover a possibility, the defense can just as easily keep the front door open for the opposition as well.

Florida Atlantic Football 06

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on handicapping the 2006 sports picks this season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#118 – Florida Atlantic Owls 2-9 SU; 3-8 ATS

Fargo’s Take Another Owl team rounds out the bottom two in college football and this one is from the south. Florida Atlantic hung around in a few games and actually won two of them in its first full season in the SBC. The problem last season was that the offense was stagnant and likely won’t be better with the loss of the Owls best player and leader, quarterback Danny Embick. This team averaged just 13.5 ppg last season and the biggest question is where the points will come from. The defense wasn’t much better, allowing 30.8 ppg but it did improve once conference action got under way. The most optimistic aspect is that Florida Atlantic is part of the Sun Belt and with it being the quirkiest and most unpredictable conference in the nation, anything can happen. How this team reacts when conference action begins will be the thing to watch since this team is going to start out 0-4 and a very bad 0-4 for that matter.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The loss of Embick means there is hardly any experience at quarterback to control the offense. The Owls were one of only 13 teams that averaged fewer than 300 yards of total offense and finished 116th in scoring average. Even with Embick at quarterback, Florida Atlantic finished 95th in passing offense so the inexperience might not be a huge problem after all. The running game is where the most experience returns as the Owls lost no one and will count on Charles Pierre and the versatile D’Ivory Edgecomb to carry the load until the new signal caller gets familiar with the offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was extremely inconsistent last season and that needs to change for this team to improve. The Owls held Oklahoma St. to 23 points and Sun Belt champion Arkansas St. to 10 points but also allowed 52 points to fellow basement dweller Florida International. Florida Atlantic yielded just under 400 ypg which was rather respectable but considering it was part of the worst conference in the country, it was pretty below average. The unit returns seven starters from last season so there is definitely a chance for improvement. It all revolves around stopping the run where they allowed 218.1 ypg and 4.9 ypc, 116th and 111th respectively.

Schedule Playing in the SBC means a relatively easy slate however the non-conference schedule for the Owls is impossible. They start out with four straight road games and they are not against average teams. Clemson, Kansas St., Oklahoma St. and South Carolina are four sure losses and while these tough games can prepare them for conference play, it could totally deflate the confidence early on. The fifth game is also on the road in their SBC opener at ULM. Four of the final six games are at home and that could mean a couple wins to close out the season.

You can bet on… The brutal start to the season can work for or against the Owls and I’m guessing it will do good. The team didn’t quit last season after a tough non-conference schedule and won’t do so again and that is due to the experienced coaching staff led by legend Howard Schnellenberger. The pivotal game is the fifth road game against ULM since it is the first game against an equal foe and the first of the second season. The Owls have covered only six of their 17 lined games in their history of 1-A and the going will be tough starting out once again this season. Expect to see some huge lines in the first four games and some possible covers.

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