My NFL is ON FIRE. I have won 4 of his last 5 NFL pics overall. Today will be my best Sunday ever. I have this FREE WINNER for you as well as my NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK which are at 66% this season, BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH which are 100% this year, AFC GAME OF THE MONTH which are 2-0 this season, and the winner of the Denver/Baltimore matchup. Jump on my back and I will carry you to the winners circle today.

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The Dolphins did a solid job on nose tackle Kris Jenkins. He requires double teams on most every rushing play, but what the Dolphins did was to use zone blocking to get him going side to side. This gave the backs cut back lanes or plainly solid holes in the middle of the line. The Bills have been terrible in protecting their QB on third and long spots. No question they will see what the Dolphins did to get the running game in high gear and that will keep them out of third and long situations. This will also allow Edwards extra time by using play action and those are the spots that can get Owens in man coverage and high percentage pass chances.

The Jets are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per carry, but is not a true reflection of the running game. They had 38 yards rushing on 2 fake punts against the Dolphins and they have practiced a sizeable array of gadget and reverse plays. They are NOT a superior running team between the tackles. With injuries to the Bills LB starters, the Jets will surely try to run the ball between the tackles, but I do not see it working and the Buffalo defensive perimeter has done an excellent job remaining disciplined in pursuit.

Mix the fundamental research with an Ai Simulator grading of 3 stars and you have the potential for a very tight game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Here is a validating system that has gone 109-59 for 65% winners since 1983. That’s a 26-year track record of consistent winners broken out by a 47-27 10-year mark and a 26-15 5 year mark. Play on road teams that are bad teams being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game after a loss by 6 or less points. Yes, this is new coaching, but this is the first 2 game losing streak for coach Ryan. Note that the Jets are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo.

John Ryan has now hit 71% ATS of his college football picks over the past 52 premium releases. I am hitting 60% winners in the NHL and all of the predictions have been dogs so far this season. Plus, he won his 15* NLDS Game of the Year play. He went 15-5 in the 2008 MLB playoffs so his best chances are still yet to come.

A recent Monday Night Football game saw Brett Favre battle his old team, the Packers. Favre was the story, with a terrific performance, but young QB Aaron Rodgers put up some sizzling numbers, with 384 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive. Did they win? Or cover? No, as the Vikings won 30-23. The most apparent explanation and it’s obvious: 2 turnovers. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the spread when studying NFL football picks.

Defensive coaches have been advocating more aggressive, attacking schemes over the last 15 years. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the largest change he had observed in the college game, Spurrier talked not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped make famous, but about the other side of the ball. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and responded to what the offense would try and do.

However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears celebrated 46 defense caused mayhem around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the odds, led by a crushing, attacking defense. They shut four teams out and held 14 of 19 foes to 10 points or less.

Defensive coaches in both the pro and college levels have been instructing players to not only tackle the right way, but to aggressively peel the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their instructing talents to advance defenses. A crucial element of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. Take a look at the bottom teams in turnover margin in the NFL last season:

2008 Worst TO Margin — ATS record

Broncos (-17) — 4-11-1 ATS
49ers (-17) —–7-8-1 ATS
Cowboys (-11) — 7-9 ATS
Texans (-10) — 9-7 ATS
Lions (-9) — 7-9 ATS
Bills (-8) —- 7-9 ATS

Some of the teams on that list likely surprise you. The Broncos? A team that had a high flying offense and should have won the AFC West? Well they didn’t, going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games, blowing the division title. Dallas? The Cowboys had a chance to make the postseason on the final day, but disappointed in an embarrassing 44-6 loss at Philadelphia. Now you know an even deeper reason those teams were in such a desperate late season place — turnovers.

So none of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason. Those teams were also a combined 41-53-2 ATS, a factor to keep in mind when evaluating weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even carry over onto the sidelines.

A few year’s ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 picks against the Panthers and while St. Louis had a chance to win the game late in the final quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to go conservative and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely picked apart for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it’s clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, “I don’t want Bulger to throw another interception. I’d better play it safe.”

Last season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential — Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis — all made the postseason with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers last year, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season.

2008 Top TO Margin – ATS record

Dolphins (+17) —- 8-9 ATS
Titans (+14) ——12-5 ATS
Ravens (+13) —– 14-5 ATS
Giants (+9) ——12-5 ATS
Colt (+9) ——7-9-1 ATS

It’s not hard to acknowledge how crucial turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin made the playoffs in 2008, and two were the top teams in their conference. They were a combined 53-33-1 against the spread. The Titans had a 13-3 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a huge element in their unsatisfactory start.

Going back a step further, the cumulative spread record of the 2005 NFL top turnover teams: 70-47-5 against the number, and that doesn’t even include the champion Steelers, who had a 13-7 ATS record. The Steelers were not far off the list, either, ranking 10th in TO margin at +7. Teams good at creating turnovers not only win on the field but there is a correlation at the pay window.

Be careful taking teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when handicapping football. Chances are they don’t win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball.

The odds makers have set an intriguing line on this game making the Indianapolis Colts just 3.5 point favorites over a team in the Tennessee Titans that has struggled mightily to start the season. Monday morning the opening line had the Colts just 1 point favorites but the public quickly jumped all over Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing the number up a full two and a half points. Currently over 75% of the betting action on this game is on the Colts at the interestingly low number.

Indianapolis has looked excellent in their first four games as they have gone 4-0 straight up and also covering 3 of those 4 games. Indy failed to cover in their opener at home against Jacksonville as 7 point favorites. As usual, Peyton Manning has been superb thus far and has to be considered the favorite to win the NFL MVP if the award were handed out today. He is completing nearly 71% of his passes and has thrown for over 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. Manning will be a big key to this game as the Tennessee secondary has not been very good in the first month of the season. Their secondary is allowing 282 yards per game through the air.

Defensively the Colts will have to stop the power rushing attack of the Titans and make Kerry Collin have to throw the ball in order to beat them. Tennessee with Chris Johnson and LenDale White carrying the ball are averaging 137 yards per game rushing and a whopping 5.5 yards per carry. The Indianapolis defense has been average at stopping the run, giving up over 106 yards rushing a game. Defensive end Dwight Freeney looks to be healthy for this game and he could play a big factor not only in stopping the run but pressuring Kerry Collins into making mistakes down field.

In order to stay in this game, Tennessee will have to play a lot better than they have on the defensive side of the ball. Peyton Manning is just too good and can put points on the board in a hurry. As mentioned earlier, the secondary has been the major weakness and the Titans are giving up an average of 27 points per game. They can’t afford to get into a shootout because their offense simply isn’t near as good as the Colts. In order to relieve the secondary, expect a lot of stunts and blitzes from the defensive line and linebackers in order to try and confuse and pressure Peyton Manning. If he gets in a rhythm, it could be a long day for this defense. It also doesn’t help that Tennessee’s two starting cornerbacks, Courtland Finnegan and Nick Harper, are both listed as questionable for Sunday Night’s game.

Vernon Croy continues to crush the books with his legendary Bookie Buster plays this season so make sure you keep an eye out for them as they are 100% perfect 5-0! Also stay tuned to the rest of Vernon’s NFL game picks that he will be posting for this weekends game!

1* on Dallas Cowboys -3 – We really feel the Denver Broncos are overrated after their 3-0 start with wins over the Raiders, Browns and Bengals, teams that have combined for a 2-7 record this season. The Cowboys should be 3-0 right now if they hadn’t blown their game against the Giants a couple weeks ago. Dallas is getting back to running the football, and they are doing it better than any team in the league. Marion Barber is expected to play this week, so look for the Cowboys to build on their 194 rushing yards per game thus far. Dallas is popping a ridiculous 6.8 yards per rush, and this offense is putting up 28.7 points per game. Denver is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. This is by far the best offense the Broncos have seen, and they won’t be able to keep up with the Cowboys on the scoreboard Sunday. Denver’s miracle run stops here. Take the Cowboys and lay the points.

***WORLD’S BEST 23-4 (85%) NFL Record to Start 2009!*** We DARE you to try and find a better NFL hot streak anywhere else, because it’s safe to say you will come up empty! 21-11 L32 NFL Picks of 2008, 10-1 in the preseason in 2009 and 13-3 in the regular season in ’09 adds up to 44-15 (75%) L59 NFL Picks Since ’08! Our NFL packages are already posted with our 2009 AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR and our NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR in Packers/Vikings leading the way! Grab The Widow’s SIZZLIN’ Sunday NFL 3-Pack for $40.00 today to get in early because these lines are moving the wrong way!

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So what do we have today? Do we have a replacement that is the antithesis of what the Monday Night Football home dog was all about, only bigger, better, and smarter? It appears there is a new star, under the radar to most gamblers, but let me familiarize you to Thursday Night Favorites, Monday Night Football home dog style…but with more juice!

What the Monday Night home underdog was to bettors, the Thursday NFL Favorite has ascended above and beyond anything the Monday Night Home underdog ever dreamt of being, and this Thursday Thug has been thieving the cash going on half of a decade.

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Last year this system came out hot with the NY Giants playing host to the Washington Redskins as a -4.5 point favorite. It soon established that it was waiting for another massive year, with a 16-7 Giant win and cover. So what could this system do in 2008-09? It ended up going 7-2-1 ATS, for 78% winners! That included a 3-0 record on Turkey Day!

Looking back at 2007-08, the system did not disappoint, as it delivered an even better 7-1 ATS year, good for 88% winners!…and yes, another 3-0 Thanksgiving sweep!

The 2006-07 season found another tiptop year as the Thursday favorite was off to the cash window again, ending with a 6-2 ATS mark, good for 75%…and you guessed it, an impeccable 2-0 Turkey Day sweep!

The 2005-06 season only came across 3 Thursday games, but it made the most of them, as the system cashed all 3 for 100%! …and of course it went an impeccable 2-0 on Turkey Day!

The system’s birth year, back in 2004-05 marked another 100% season at 2-0-1 ATS, and of course a perfect 2-0 sweep on Thanksgiving Day!

So, looking back over the previous 5 years, the NFL Thursday Favorite System has gone an amazing 25-5 against the spread (83%)!

Looking at the last 5 years on Turkey Day, the favorites won all 13 games, going a perfect 13-0 ATS and really,erm…gobbling up the cash!

This Thursday we have the first test in 2009-10 with the defending Superbowl Champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, hosting the Tennessee Titans. What can also be mentioned is the Superbowl winner is now 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 opening games in the next year!!!

Does this mean the Steelers are a lock to win and cover here? Absolutely not! It requires more than 30 games to make something noteworthy enough to follow on the blind, but the formula of the last 5 years has called for deep-frying the books. The question is, can this system keep making profit for a 6th year, or is it time for it to fade, and bury it with the Monday Night Football home underdogs system?

I’m off a outstanding NFL season, as well as a great CFB season, and have been fortuitous enough to start CFB at 7-0, and I’m looking forward to the beginning of the NFL season.

I wish you the best of luck in 2009-10, and if your looking for help, hopefully you will give me a look!

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