2006 NFL Favorites Covering

May 23, 2008

Once again 2006 is seeing NFL favorites covering the spread. Alex Smart of the Vegas Experts takes a further look. Last year, the NFL saw a significant change favoring for the bettor. The public was happy, the books not so. Last season, NFL favorites covered at a 57.2% clip, well above recent years.

What can we expect this year? More of the same? Or the bias towards underdogs in the NFL returning? Going back through my records before 2005, I note that NFL dogs had beaten the pointspread about 52%-53% of the time.

Could the fate of the favorites and their up-surging fortunes have been predicted going into last season? From a near 10 year high when the underdogs covered 55.8% of the time in 2002, a small drop-off followed the next two seasons. In 2003 underdogs covered 53.2%, a drop off of 2.6%. Then in 2004, the underdog dropped off by a further 3.2%, so covering the season at an even 50%.

Was parity eventually taking effect? The answer to that is surely yes. But not just last season. It started several seasons ago as the chalk started to win at a higher rate than previously. Now there has become a divide in the NFL where the successful teams attract the better players and the less successful have what’s left. This has started to see a widening gap each and every season for the last three years. See it all stems from players wanting to win. Salary is so high, what’s a few million dollars less at the end of a career if you have a ring to prove your success and re-live later in life telling the grandchildren.

So how did the favorites start out this 2006 season? We’ve only seen action for one week and there’s still another 16 weeks till the regular season ends, but overall favorites went 7-9 ATS. Home chalk was a disappointing 1-7 ATS while the road favs enjoyed a prosperous 6-2 ATS weekend.

How have those figures from the opening week compared with overall figures for week one since 1999? During this eight-year span (2006 included), favorites are now 53-67-8 ATS with mid-range favorites priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points going 18-27 ATS. Splitting this into home and road stats I can tell you that home favorites are now 34-50-4 ATS, so leaving road favs at 19-17-4 ATS. Looking at those chalk numbers that are in the mid-range line bracket of -3.5 and -6.5, home favs are 12-20 ATS and road favs are 6-7 ATS.

The figures are pretty in-conclusive to assume what will follow over the coming weeks. One thing that is for sure, this will not be the only time this subject will be covered this NFL season.

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2006 Falcons Saints

May 23, 2008

This Monday night will be the Falcons v. Saints, but the real story will be the return to the Super Dome. Hopefully this article will help you with your football betting on this game, and you’ll come out on the winning side. However if you do not want to do your own work, check out the NFL picks produced by the handicappers on this site.

Football returns to Louisiana on Monday night as the New Orleans Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons in the first game at the Super Dome since Hurricane Katrina nearly blew it off the map.

The Super Dome will be rocking on Monday night, literally rocking with U2 and Green Day scheduled to perform before kickoff. What should really be rocking though is the sold-out stadium which will be filled to capacity all season long, as every ticket to every Saints game has already been sold.

The Saints made this game even more hyped by starting the season 2-0. In fact the Saints started the season with two road wins for the first time ever in team history. The Saints’ opponents, the Falcons, are also undefeated at 2-0 which means this game is an unlikely battle for first place in the NFC South.

The Saints may be 2-0 but they have posted that record against Cleveland and Green Bay, who are both winless so far this season. The Falcons on the other hand have actually beaten teams that made the playoffs last season, Carolina and Tampa Bay.

The Saints’ offensive attack so far has been comprised mostly of new QB Drew Brees and running back Deuce McAllister. Brees has passed for 523 yards with three touchdowns. (Again, it was against the Browns and the Packers.) McAllister has remained New Orleans’ feature back with 137 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, the player most Saints’ fans will be out to see on Monday night will be Reggie Bush. The second overall draft pick has only racked up 72 rushing yards on 21 carries this season but anticipation will be high on Monday night. One also has to wonder how the recent allegations being thrown at Bush and his family will affect Reggie on the field.

The Falcons picked up where they left off last season with one of the best rushing attacks in the league. Warrick Dunn may not have found the end zone yet this season, but he’s still been spectacular while rushing for 266 yards on 50 carries. Falcons’ QB Michael Vick is off to a fast start, with the rest of the league waiting for him to either get injured or start throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. In the Falcons’ two games Vick has passed for 232 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown. The versatility of Vick makes him a defense’s worst nightmare, but he still needs to prove he can be more than a great running quarterback over a full season.

As long as Atlanta’s defense continues to dominate, it may not matter what Vick does. The Falcons’ defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet this season and that was without defensive leader John Abraham in Week 2.

Everyone seems to be cheering for the Saints in this game, except for Falcons’ fans and perhaps the oddsmakers. The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this game and an upset win would not only do a lot for Saints fans and dog bettors, but also the people of New Orleans who have already been uplifted by the Saints’ feel-good start to the season.

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