Jack Jones Jack Jones
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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Baylor
-8½-106
  at  PINNACLE
started

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Baylor -8.5

I believe that Baylor is way undervalued right now because it has opened the season by going 0-3 ATS. However, the Bears have barely favored to cover the spread in all three games.

They beat Northwestern State 55-7 as 50-point favorites (2-point loss), SMU 40-13 as 34.5-point favorites (7.5-point loss) and Rice 38-10 as 33.5-point favorites (5.5-point loss). They easily could have covered against both Northwestern State and Rice had they kept their foot on the gas.

Now the Bears are only laying 8.5-points here against an Oklahoma State team that clearly has its issues this season. And Baylor really hasn’t missed a beat with Jim Grobe as the offense is averaging 44.3 points and 557.3 yards per game, while the defense is only giving up 10.0 points and 249.3 yards per game. The Bears are outscoring opponents by 34.3 points per game and outgaining them by 308 yards per game.

Sure, Oklahoma State got screwed against Central Michigan, but the fact that it was even a game is concerning. The Cowboys really deserved to lose because they were outgained 338 to 418, or by 80 total yards. They went 1-for-11 on 3rd downs, and only gaining 338 yards against Central Michigan is not very good.

The Bears have had the Cowboys’ number in recent years, winning three of the last four meetings. The last two really haven’t even been close. Baylor won 49-28 at home in 2014 while outgaining Oklahoma State 579 to 397 for the game. Then Baylor led by double-digits the entire second half on the road last year and won 45-35. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bears outgained the Cowboys 700 to 441, or by 259 total yards.

McLane Stadium has been a very tough place for Big 12 opponents. Indeed, the Bears are 17-3 in their last 20 conference home games. They lost their final two home games last year, but they were battling injuries and missing starting QB Seth Russell in losses to both Oklahoma and Texas.

Russell certainly looks like his old self this season as he has thrown for 761 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. KD Cannon is a beast, catching 24 balls for 352 yards and four scores. Plus, the Bears have three different running backs with at least 200 yards rushing in JaMycal Hasty (237 yards, 2 TD), Terrence Williams (232, 3 TD) and Shock Linwood (213).

Oklahoma State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. Baylor is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 525 or more total yards in its previous game. Plays on a home team (BAYLOR) – after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games, with five defensive starters returning are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games overall.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 23, 2016
Red Sox vs Rays
Red Sox
-110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Boston Red Sox -110

The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won eight straight games while scoring at least 5 runs in all eight to grab a stranglehold on the AL East.  Now we are getting them at a great price of only -110 in Game 1 against the Rays Friday.

Drew Pomeranz is having a great year, going 10-12 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 29 starts, including 6-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Pomeranz is also 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in three career starts against Tampa Bay.

Chris Archer probably can't wait for this season to be over.  He is 8-18 with a 4.06 ERA in 31 starts this season.  Archer has never fared well against the Red Sox, going 1-10 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.

The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 10-25 in Archer's last 35 starts.  Tampa Bay is 5-21 in Archer's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rays are 2-9 in Archer's last 11 home starts.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 23, 2016
Giants vs Padres
Giants
-142 at betonline
Lost
$142.0
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants -142

The Giants picked up a big win last night to pull into a tie with the Mets for the two wild card spots in the National League.  They lead the Cardinals by one-half game now, and they need every win they can get.

I've been impressed with Albert Suarez, who is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  One of those starts came against San Diego on September 13 as Suaraz gave up just one earned run in 5 innings.

Edwin Jackson remains one of the worst starters in baseball, going 4-5 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He gave up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Colorado.  Jackson is 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in nine career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  San Diego is 1-5 in Jackson's last six starts.  The Padres are 1-6 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Giants Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 23, 2016
USC vs Utah
Utah
-2½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* USC/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes almost always seem to have some magic at home, and this is a very small number for them to have to cover Friday night against a USC team that is in shambles right now.

The Utes have opened 3-0 and have been pretty dominant in the process. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.0 points per game and outgaining them by 154 yards per game.

The key for the Utes has been the defense, which has been a staple since Kyle Whittingham took over. The Utes are only allowing 12.0 points and 263.7 yards per game this season. They have played both BYU and San Jose State, which are two capable offenses, too.

Utah has gotten some nice quarterback play from first-year starter Troy Williams. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 723 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The rushing attack is solid once again, averaging 169 yards per game thus far.

USC just isn’t responding to Clay Helton for whatever reason. The Trojans have now lost four of their last five games overall dating back to last season. They haven’t even been competitive in their two losses this season.

The Trojans were pummeled 52-6 by Alabama in the opener, getting held to just 194 total yards in the loss. Last week they were overmatched in a 10-27 road loss to Stanford as well, letting Christian McCaffrey do whatever he wanted to them.

The USC front seven defensively is the biggest issue. They only brought one starter back among the front seven this season. And the Trojans gave up 242 rushing yards to Alabama and 295 to Stanford. Now they are dealing with some injuries up front as DT Noah Jefferson, DT Khaliel Rodgers and LB Quinton Powell are all questionable, while DE Osa Masina has left the team.

The Trojans are also pushing the panic button offensively and moving on from junior QB Max Browne already. They are expected to start freshman Sam Darnold in his place this week, and I can guarantee you that Salt Lake City is not the place you want to make your first start as a freshman.

The difference in this game is going to be Utah's defensive line dominating USC's offensive line.  The Utes have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that was on display last week as they recorded a whopping 10 sacks against San Jose State.  Eight different players accounted for sacks in that game.  Darnold is going to be under duress all game.

The home team has won three straight meetings. Utah is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game. Whittingham is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game as the coach of Utah. The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Bet Utah Friday.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 24, 2016
Giants vs Padres
Giants
-1½ -125 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-125)

I'm back on the Giants today after a bad loss to the Padres last night.  This team simply has to get wins to make the playoffs, and I trust them to turn it around here at the end of the season, especially with their ace on the mound tonight.

Madison Bumgarner is 14-9 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  He is coming off a tremendous start where he allowed only one hit in seven shutout innings while striking out 10 against the Dodgers.  Bumgarner is 10-7 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 26 career starts against the Padres as well.

Jarred Cosart is still in search of his first victory for the Padres.  He is 0-4 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last three.  Cosart has never beaten the Giants, going 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.761 WHIP in two career starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 23 base runners over 8 1/3 innings.

Bumgarner is 20-4 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Giants are winning these games by 3.0 runs/game.  Roll with the Giants on the Run Line Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Penn State vs Michigan
Penn State
+19 -106 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

15* Penn State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +19

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued here in my opinion due to three straight blowouts against very weak competition. They are also the No. 4 team in the country. These blowouts and that ranking have the betting public way too high on them right now.

But when you dig deeper into the numbers, you will find that Michigan hasn’t been as dominant as it appears. It is outscoring Hawaii, UCF and Colorado by 38.0 points per game, but only outgaining them by 156.0 yards per game. That doesn’t really add up as you would expect to see a bigger yardage differential with that point differential.

Colorado played Michigan to a tougher game than the 45-28 final would suggest. There’s no way the Wolverines should have scored 45 points with just 397 yards of total offense, but they got two special teams touchdowns. Colorado was actually leading this game 28-24 in the 3rd quarter, but then its starting QB Sefo Liufau got knocked out of the game, and the Wolverines scored 21 straight points to finish and pull away.

I really like what I’ve seen from Penn State thus far and know that it is vastly improved from a year ago, especially offensively. The offense held the Nittany Lions back last year with Christian Hackenberg, but that’s no longer the case now that Trace McSorley is running the show.

Indeed, McSorley has led the Penn State offense to an average of 35.3 points per game this season against a much tougher schedule than Michigan has faced. They put up 33 against Kent State, 39 against Pitt and 34 against Temple. McSorley is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 828 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 38 yards and a score.

And that Temple game was a bigger blowout than the 34-27 final last week.  The Nittany Lions controlled the game with a 21-13 edge in first downs.  They fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the 2nd quarter.  Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown drive after an interception.  A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple eventually scored.  The Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point as 8-point favorites after Temple got a late 34-yard field goal.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time Michigan beat Penn State by more than 19 points. That was a 20-point win and 11 meetings ago.

Michigan is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. The Wolverines are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. James Franklin is 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached. His teams are winning in this spot by 22.3 points per game on average.  Take Penn State Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Kent State vs Alabama
Kent State
+44 -105 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +44

It's well documented that Alabama struggles to cover against Group of 5 teams when stepping out of conference.  The Crimson Tide are always such huge favorites, but they aren't a team that likes to run up the scoreboard, making it difficult to cover these big numbers.

Alabama went 0-2 ATS against Group of 5 teams last year, winning by 27 over Middle Tennessee as 35-point favorites and by 34 over ULM as 38-point favorites.  They went 0-1 ATS against them in 2014, winning by 40 over Southern Miss as 45-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2013, winning by 42 over Georgia State as 54-point favorites and by 25 over Colorado State as 39-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2012, winning by 35 over WKU as 38-point favorites and by 33 over FAU as 40-point favorites.

If you count the non-cover against WKU this season in a 28-point win as 28.5-point favorites, depending when you bet it, then Alabama is now 0-8 ATS against Group of 5 teams over the past five seasons.  I look for that trend to continue this week as Alabama fails to cover as a 44-point favorite against Kent State.

Alabama is in a tough mental spot here.  It is coming off the huge 48-43 win against Ole Miss last week, getting revenge on the Rebels after losing the previous two meetings.  I look for the Crimson Tide to come out flat this week.  Plus, Kent State is head coach Nick Saban's alma mater, so he won't be looking to embarrass the Golden Flashes.

Kent State is a team that should be improved this season with 18 returning starters.  It is off to just a 1-2 start this season, but I came away from the 13-33 road loss to Penn State knowing that this team is improved.  Kent State was only outgained by 75 yards on the road by the Nittany Lions in a game that was closer than the final score showed.

Quarterback Mylik Mitchell has actually played pretty well thus far for the Golden Flashes.  He is completing 59.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception.  He has also rushed for 113 yards as a solid dual-threat guy.

The Golden Flashes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Nebraska vs Northwestern
Northwestern
+7½ -105 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern +7.5

The Northwestern Wildcats are undervalued right now after starting 0-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State.  While those were upsets, they were only 3-point favorites and 12.5-point favorites respectively, so they weren't out of the realm of possibility.

But the Wildcats bounced back nicely last week by beating Duke 24-13.  Clayton Thorsen threw for a career-high 320 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The defense stepped up again and is playing well, limiting opponents to 14.7 points per game on the season.

Now the Wildcats enter conference play and realize that those losses don't matter now.  You'd love to have those games back, but you are your record -- and you have to work to get better," said Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. "I think it just shows if you have perseverance and grit and you stay the course that you can do whatever you set your mind to."  That's what he had to say after the Duke victory.

Nebraska is overvalued due to its 3-0 start.  The Huskers needed a late touchdown to cover against Fresno State 43-10 as 29-point favorites, they were in a 24-17 game against Wyoming in the 4th quarter, but exploded for 28 points in the final period thanks to six turnovers from the Cowboys in a 52-17 win as 26.5-point favorites.

Then with under three minutes left last week, the Huskers put together a game-winning drive to beat Oregon 35-32 on a 34-yard run from QB Tommy Armstrong.  Players were calling that a 'statement win' after the game, and now I believe they are in a letdown spot here this week, not to mention overvalued as stated before.

Nebraska is just 1-4 in road openers since joining the Big Ten.  Its only win came against hapless Purdue in 2013 as 13-point favorites.  The Huskers lost their road opener last year at Illinois.  They will likely lose again this week to Northwestern, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by 3 points or fewer.  That includes a 30-28 road win last year for Northwestern as 7-point dogs.  The only exception was in 2014 when Northwestern blew a 17-14 halftime lead and was shut out after intermission.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less either way.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Mike Riley is 5-15 ATS in road games in the first month of the season in all games he has coached.  The Wildcats are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Louisville vs Marshall
Marshall
+27 -106 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall +27

This is the perfect spot to fade Louisville, which could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after its 3-0 start.  The Cardinals are coming off a 63-20 win over Florida State last week that has the betting public in awe.

So they're in a letdown spot after beating FSU, plus they are in a lookahead spot with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cardinals, and I'm very confident that they will be flat against Marshall this week because of it.

At the same time, Marshall could not be more undervalued after an ugly 38-65 loss to Akron at home last week.  That was after a 62-0 home win over Morgan State to open the season, and now this will be just their 3rd game of the year.

But that loss to Akron was far from as bad as it looks from the score.  The Thundering Herd actually outgained by 36 yards in the game and racked up 560 yards of offense.  Marshall committed four turnovers in that game, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.  Akron also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, scoring three non-offensive touchdowns, which is hard to do.

The Thundering Herd will regroup this week at home as this is their Super Bowl against Louisville.  Huntington, West Virginia is a place where teams have gone to die in recent years.  Indeed, Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the last four seasons.  That loss to Akron was simply an aberration.

Plays against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) - excellent rushing team (230-plus yards/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or fewer yards/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1992.

The Thundering Herd are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Florida vs Tennessee
Tennessee
-6½ -106 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -6.5

The Volunteers were getting a ton of hype coming into the season, and they clearly haven’t handled it very well mentally. They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in their opener, and they only beat Ohio 28-19 last week as 27.5-point favorites.

However, when the Volunteers were on a huge stage at Bristol Motor Speedway against Virginia Tech, they lived up to their potential in a 45-24 victory. That’s the same VA Tech team that beat Boston College 49-0 last week.

I can guarantee you that Tennessee will put its best foot forward this week as this is the game that it has been looking forward to all offseason. I actually went against Tennessee last week and won on Ohio, stating that it would be looking ahead to Florida, and that was exactly what happened.

Now the Volunteers will be foaming at the mouth and licking their chops at another shot at the Gators this week. They have lost 11 straight meetings int his series, but they shouldn’t have lost last year. They blew a 27-14 lead in the final four minutes and lost 28-27.  They also lost 10-9 in 2014 at home.

This is the first time in a while that Tennessee clearly has a talent edge over Florida, and I expect that talent to shine inside a rowdy Neyland Stadium this time around. Getting this superior Tennessee team at under a touchdown on the spread is a gift from oddsmakers.

Not to mention, Florida finally thought it found its starting QB for the next few years Luke Del Rio, but he was injured last game and will miss a couple weeks with a knee injury. That’s a huge loss because Del Rio was playing well, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 762 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now they’ll likely go with Austin Appleby, a former Purdue transfer, and I don’t expect him to handle this tough road environment very well. Appleby only completed 55% of his passes with a 19-to-19 TD/INT ratio at Purdue. Plus, he could be without leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13, 201, TD), who missed last week with a quad injury and is doubtful to return this week. Callaway scored the game-winning TD against the Vols last year.

It’s not like Florida has been tested, either. I would argue that its three opponents thus far are all worse than any of the three opponents Tennessee has faced. Florida has played three home games against UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. It only beat UMass 24-7 in the opener in what was a 10-7 game going into the 4th. It also failed to cover against North Texas last week.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

SERVICE BIO

Jack Jones has long been a private consultant who has provided his selections to some of the bigger players in the handicapping industry. He has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success and just recently decided to take his selections public. Now you can take advantage of one of the most prestigious handicappers on the planet right here at Sports Capping. Jack won't shy away from comparing his selections with some of the other well known handicappers in the world, and is fully confident clients will find his name at the top of the leader boards across all of the sports that he handicaps: pro and college football, basketball, and the MLB. While being a football junkie who thrives against the books each fall, you will see documented winners across the board all year long. If you want a service that you can trust to win and win consistently, then Jack Jones is your guy.