Jack Jones

Jack Jones Jack Jones

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20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH! (54-36 Run)

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15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK! (47-29 & 7-1 NFL Runs)

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15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout! (100% System Since 2002)

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15* NFL Sunday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT! (7-1 NFL HEATER)

No. 5 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones is riding a 7-1 NFL HEATER to add to his 16-3 Football Run since last Thursday! He is also on a 47-29 NFL Run Overall! Jack spots a team in Week 3 that is sure to bounce back from a loss last week! He brings it to you with his 15* NFL Sunday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT for just $29.95! You'll agree with his assumption once you witness the 100% & 89% Systems in his analysis upon purchase! His selection is GUARANTEED to get the money or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

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No. 5 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones is riding a HOT 7-1 NFL Run since last Thursday to add to his 47-29 NFL Run Overall! He has also put together a 198-162 NFL Sides Run over the long haul! Crush your book in Week 3 with Jack's Sunday NFL 5-Play Power Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge is a pair of top plays in his 20* Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch and his 20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH! It would cost you roughly $160.00 to buy all five picks separately, so YOU SAVE $100.00 with this 5-Pack! You are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

*This package includes 5 NFL picks

20* Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch! (54-36 Run)

No. 5 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones is riding a 16-3 Football TEAR into Sunday's action! He has put together 47-29 & 7-1 NFL Runs as well as a 54-36 Run on pro football top plays rated 20* or higher! Cash in a late-afternoon winner Sunday by signing up for his 20* Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch! Will it be another blowout by Seattle, or does Denver keep it close, possibly pulling off the upset? Find out for just $34.95! GUARANTEED or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

*This package includes 1 NFL pick

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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
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Jack Jones enters the 2014-15 football season riding some tremendous runs! He is in the midst of a 191-156 NFL Sides Run after closing last season on 38-23 & 18-9 NFL Runs! He was also the No. 3 Ranked College Football Handicapper from 2012-13 and he has put together a 145-117 CFB Run heading into this year! Sign up here for Jack's 2014-15 Football Season Pass for $599.95! It would cost you roughly $900 to buy his CFB ($449.95) and NFL ($449.95) passes separately, so you receive a $300.00 DISCOUNT by signing up for this combo package! You'll receive all of his pro and college football releases through the 2015 Super Bowl!

*This subscription includes 5 NFL picks

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Jack Jones enters the 2014-15 season riding a MASSIVE 191-156 NFL Sides Run! He had a big finish to 2013-14 as well with 38-23 & 18-9 NFL Runs for his premium clients! Sign up here for Jack's 2014-15 NFL Season Pass for $449.95 and get your hands on these huge profits! With this package, you will receive every NFL play Jack releases through the 2015 Super Bowl!

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
+6½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 10h

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins +6.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) have had two huge comebacks for victories. They came from 17 down to beat Jacksonville 34-17, and 14 down to defeat Indianapolis 30-27. The Washington Redskins (1-1) did not play well in a 6-17 loss to the Texans on the road in their opener, but bounced back with a 41-10 win over the Jaguars last week.

The Redskins are vastly improved over a year ago. I actually believe that the Robert Griffin III injury is a blessing in disguise because Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback. He had the second-best passer rating in the league last week in the win over Jacksonville. Cousins went 22 of 33 passing for 250 yards and two touchdowns without any picks to lead the team once Griffin III went down.

What I’ve been most impressed about the Redskins thus far is their improvement on defense. They are only giving up 13.5 points and 232.0 yards per game on the season. They registered a whopping 10 sacks against the Jaguars last week and lead the league in that department. It’s amazing what this stop unit can do when healthy, which wasn’t the case last season.

Indeed, the Redskins went just 3-13 last season, yet they hung tough in both of their losses to the Eagles. They lost 27-33 at home and 16-24 on the road. They put up an average of over 400 yards per game of total offense in the two losses as well.

They should have no problem moving the football on an Eagles defense that is really banged up right now. Mychal Kendricks went out against the Colts last week with an injury and probably won’t be back this week. Najee Goode is on the IR with a torn pectoral muscle. These two linebackers are irreplaceable.

The Eagles have certainly looked vulnerable in their first two games. They trailed 17-0 to the Jaguars before rallying in the second half for a victory. They were also behind 20-6 against the Colts before rallying for a 30-27 win.

They used a ton of energy in trying to make that comeback on Monday Night Football. Now, they will be on a short week against a Redskins team that only had to go through the motions in the second half against the Jaguars and will be plenty rested because of it.

Plays against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) – team with a poor scoring defense last season – allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1983. The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

No. 5 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones is riding a HOT 7-1 NFL Run since last Thursday to add to his 47-29 NFL Run Overall! He has also put together a 198-162 NFL Sides Run over the long haul! Crush your book in Week 3 with Jack's Sunday NFL 5-Play Power Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge is a pair of top plays in his 20* Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch and his 20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH! It would cost you roughly $160.00 to buy all five picks separately, so YOU SAVE $100.00 with this 5-Pack! You are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 20, 2014
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
-102
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -102

The Seattle Mariners (83-70) trail the Kansas City Royals (83-69) by just a half-game for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also just one game back of the Oakland A's (84-69) for the first wild card spot.  This team obviously had plenty of motivation tonight to beat the Houston Astros (67-87).

Chris Young has proven that he still has plenty left in the tank this season.  The veteran right-hander has gone 12-8 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.198 WHIP over 28 starts and one relief appearance in 2014.

Young is 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in five career starts against Houston.  His teams are a perfect 5-0 in those games as he has never lost.  In two starts against the Astros this season, Young is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA while allowing just five earned runs and 12 base runners over 14 innings with 14 strikeouts.

The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Mariners are 8-0 in Young's last 8 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous games.  Seattle is 6-0 in Young's last 6 Saturday starts.  The Astros are 0-4 in their last four games overall  These four trends combine for a 24-0 system backing Seattle.  Also, the Astros are 4-18 in Dallas Keuchel's last 22 starts when working on 5 days of rest.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Miami (Fla) vs. Nebraska
Miami (Fla)
+8-105
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Free

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Miami +8

Nebraska (3-0) has had a scare already this season with a 31-24 win over FCS foe McNeese State. However, it has taken care of business in its other two games, beating Florida Atlantic 55-7 in its opener and Fresno State 55-19 on the road last week.

Miami (2-1) got off to a shaky start to the season with a 13-31 road loss at Louisville. It has since rebounded with back-to-back blowout home victories over Florida A&M (41-7) and Arkansas State (41-20).

Both of these teams have had one poor performance this season apiece. I am a lot more worried about Nebraska’s last-minute home win over McNeese State than I am about Miami’s 18-point road loss to Louisville. Obviously, the Big Ten is down this season, and I don’t believe the Huskers are even close to the class of that conference.

We already saw one ACC team go on the road and upset what was supposed to be the best team in the Big Ten. Virginia Tech went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory despite being a 10-point underdog. I believe Miami is fully capable of going into Nebraska and pulling off the upset, but it just needs to stay within 8 points to cover the spread, which I expect it to do.

Miami hasn’t even lived up to its potential yet because it has shot itself in the foot with turnovers over the first three games. Indeed, it has already committed eight turnovers to this point. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya has now been able to get his feet wet and bounce back from a tough outing at Louisville. He is completing 60.0% of his passes for 693 yards with seven touchdowns and five picks. He should not be intimidated now that we are four weeks into the season.

Duke Johnson has rushed for 277 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. This guy was on pace for nearly 2,000 yards last year before getting hurt after seven starts. I believe this Nebraska defense is susceptible to the run. After all, the Huskers gave up 178 rushing yards to McNeese State, so Johnson should have his way all game.

Nebraska is a team that relies heavily on its rushing attack.  It is rushing for 324 yards per game, but keep in mind that it has faced three awful defenses.  Miami's biggest strength is its run defense, which is only allowing 83 yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  I just really believe this is a great match-up for the Hurricanes because of their ability to stop the run.

Miami is 8-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 25-54-2 ATS in its last 81 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Huskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Miami Saturday.

No. 3 Ranked College Football Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack Jones is riding a recent 9-2 CFB Run to add to his 16-3 Football TEAR since last Thursday! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 7-Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge is a TRIO of 20* Top Plays as well as four 15* winners! He brings you winning picks in Florida/Alabama & Oklahoma/WVU as well! It would cost you roughly $225.00 to buy all seven picks separately, so YOU SAVE $165.00 with this 7-Pack! You are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Sunday NFL is ON JACK!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Florida vs. Alabama
Total
51 un-110
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* Florida/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high in this rivalry between Florida (2-0) and Alabama (3-0) Saturday.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle similar to the games these teams have played in recent years.  The books are giving us an absolute gift here, so let's take advantage.

I believe the reason this number is inflated is because these teams have combined to go 4-1 to the over so far this season.  Last week, both played in high-scoring games.  Florida beat Kentucky 36-30, and Alabama beat Southern Miss 52-12.  However, that Florida game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation, and it went to three overtimes to reach that 66-point total.  They only had 40 combined points at the end of regulation.

Without question, these are two of the best defenses in the country.  I believe the perception of Alabama's defense is that it is not as good as in year's past because it gave up 23 points to West Virginia.  Well, after seeing the Mountaineers put up nearly 700 yards of offense and 40 points on a very good Maryland defense last week, it's clearly that the WVU offense is better than it gets credit for.  So holding them to 23 points is not bad.

Florida has been nothing short of dominant defensively each of the last six years.  It has held teams to an average of 314 or fewer yards per game in all six seasons.  This is an elite stop unit once again with seven starters back from last year.  Alabama has allowed 287 or fewer total yards per game in each of the past six seasons.  It has also allowed 14.3 or fewer points per game in all six years.

While these are all important facts as to why I like the UNDER, none is as important as how these teams have fared against one another in recent years.  Alabama & Florida have combined for 48, 37, 45, 51, 41, 38 & 41 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That makes for a perfect 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1999 pertaining to today's total set of 51 points, which is way too high.  They have combined to average 43 points per game in their last seven meetings.

Alabama is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  The Crimson Tide are 30-10 to the UNDER in their last 40 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Gators last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
West Virginia
+8-110
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* Oklahoma/WVU Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +8

Oklahoma (3-0) has lived up to the hype so far this season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 at home in its opener, went on the road and topped Tulsa 52-7, and then thumped Tennessee 34-10 last week as Bob Stoops had his way with another SEC opponent.

West Virginia (2-1) has played a very tough schedule in the early going and has done well for itself. It gave Alabama a run for its money in a 23-33 loss in the opener. It then shut out Towson 54-0 at home before earning a last-second road victory at Maryland (40-37) last weekend.

Without question, the Mountaineers are a completely different team than they were a year ago. They were atrocious to say the least last year, but they did beat then-No. 11 Oklahoma State at home 30-21 as a 19-point underdog. They also gave Oklahoma a run for their money in a 7-16 road loss as a 21-point underdog. After having just eight starters back last year, the Mountaineers have 13 back this season and are vastly improved.

The loss to Alabama was very impressive. They were a 22-point underdog and gave the Crimson Tide all they wanted in a 23-33 road loss. The 54-0 win over Towson was nice, but last week’s 40-37 win at Maryland was even better. This was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Mountaineers outgained the Terrapins 694-447 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to keep it close. Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards and four touchdowns in the win.

I believe Oklahoma is a bit overvalued here as more than a touchdown road favorite against WVU. The Sooners have been better than I expected to this point, but they also have played an extremely soft schedule. Their win over Tennessee last week wasn’t the 34-10 blowout it appeared to be as they took advantage of three Tennessee turnovers, including an interception that was returned 100 yards for a score as the Vols were going in to score in the fourth quarter.

Last year, as stated before, the Sooners only beat the Mountaineers 16-7 at home. The Sooners went on to win a BCS bowl game over Alabama, while the Mountaineers went 4-8 last year. Oklahoma only outgained WVU 435-387 for the game. Trevor Knight was awful in the win, completing just 10 of 20 passes for 119 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  Sure, Oklahoma is 2-0 against WVU as Big 12 opponents, but both have been by single-digits with their 50-49 road win in 2012 being the other.

Trickett did not play in that game for WVU last year, either. Trickett is a new QB this year, completing 75.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games.  The Mountaineers rank 13th in the country in total offense at 564.3 yards per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that they have played two great defenses thus far in Alabama and Maryland.

Oklahoma is 19-42 ATS in its last 61 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's revenge time in 2014 after back-to-back narrow losses in this series.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Georgia State vs. Washington
Georgia State
+35-110
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday Big Dog Special on Georgia State +35

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have survived a couple of scares up to this point.  They beat Hawaii (17-16) on the road as a 17.5-point favorite, Eastern Washington (59-52) at home as a 17-point favorite, and Illinois (44-19) at home as a 13-point favorite.

Georgia State (1-2) could easily be 3-0 right now.  It beat Abilene Christian 38-37 as a 4-point home favorite, lost to New Mexico State (31-34) as a 3-point home favorite, and lost to Air Force (38-48) as a 12-point home dog.

I simply believe that Washington is overvalued right now.  This is a team that lost a ton of talent from last year's squad and is in rebuilding mode despite the 3-0 start.  Only beating Hawaii by a single point and Eastern Washington by a touchdown just goes to show how much work this team has to do to get better in Chris Petersen's first year on the job.

In fact, Washington was actually outgained by 88 total yards in that 17-16 win at Hawaii.  It was also outgained by 37 yards in its 59-52 win over Eastern Washington.  It only outgained Illinois by 113 total yards despite winning by 25 last week.  So, despite being 3-0, this team is actually being outgained 445-449 on average through three games, which isn't the sign of a good team.

Georgia State, meanwhile, has outgained all three of its opponents.  That's why it easily could be 3-0 right now.  It outgained Abiline Christian by 67 yards, NMSU by 21 yards, and Air Force by 10 yards.  That effort against a quality Air Force team really shows that this squad is capable of.  The Panthers are outgaining teams 524-491 on average for the season. Clearly, they have a potent offensive attack that is capable of putting up points on Washington and easily staying within this 35-point spread. 

Quarterback Nick Arbuckle has passed for 1,121 yards and seven touchdowns in three games.  He has three solid targets in tight end Joel Ruiz (15 receptions, 223 yards, two touchdowns) and wideouts Robert Davis (16-202) and LynQuez Blair (15-212-3).   Inside linebacker Joseph Peterson (39 tackles) and outside linebacker Jarrell Robinson (five tackles for loss, two sacks) are Georgia State’s most productive defenders.

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington, which has its Pac-12 opener on deck.  Not only is it their opener, but the Huskies will be playing Stanford, which is a game they will be looking ahead to.  They won't be motivated enough against Georgia State to win this game by more than five touchdowns.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia State give Washington a scare here.

The Panthers have turned the ball over eight times already, while the Huskies have turned it over only once.  The Panthers at least have an excuse for not opening 3-0 like they easily could have due to those turnovers.  The Huskies have no excuse for their close wins over Hawaii & Eastern Washington because they have committed just one turnover.  Meanwhile, a whopping 56 of their 120 points have come off of opponent's turnovers.

Georgia State is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 3-14 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Indiana vs. Missouri
Indiana
+14-105
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +14

Missouri (3-0) has picked up right where it left off last year as SEC East champs. It beat South Dakota State 38-18 at home before playing a couple of tougher opponents. It thumped Toledo 49-24 on the road in Week 2 and then beat UCF 38-10 at home last week.

Indiana (1-1) beat Indiana State 28-10 at home in its opener. It then had a bye week before falling on the road to Bowling Green 42-45 last weekend.

This line opened at Missouri -16 and has been bet down to -13.5 as of this writing for good reason. I look for the Hoosiers to give the Tigers a run for their money Saturday afternoon and to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset. Indiana is a team that should be improved this year with 17 returning starters, while Missouri should be in rebuilding mode with only eight starters back.

I realize that doesn’t appear to be the case so far, but Missouri’s wins have been much closer than the final scores would indicate. It has yet to outgain a team by more than 100 yards, yet it has three victories of 20 or more points. It only outgained South Dakota State by 28 yards in the opener, which is absolutely terrible. It also only outgained Toledo by 94 yards in its 25-point win, and then UCF by 23 yards in its 28-point win. This team is living off of turnovers, which is a dangerous way to live.

Indiana's 18-point win over Indiana State was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It actually outgained the Sycamores by 396 total yards for the game. It also outgained Bowling Green by 11 yards last week in a losing effort. That’s the same Bowling Green team that won the MAC last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hoosiers were looking ahead to this game against Missouri as well knowing that they want payback after losing by 17 at home last year.

Indiana boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Indeed, it ranks 9th in the FBS in total offense at 574.0 yards per game. Nate Sudfeld is completing 71.2 percent of his passes, and Tevin Coleman is a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy. He has already rushed for 437 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.3 yards per carry through two games.

This is a huge letdown spot for Missouri, which has a game at South Carolina on deck, which will be its SEC opener. The Tigers cannot wait for a shot at revenge on the Gamecocks after losing to them in double-overtime at home last year. That lost nearly cost them the SEC East Title.  It's only human nature for them to let down here, and that's a big reason why the Hoosiers will cover.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+3-110
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina +3

The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) have certainly been impressive to this point.  They beat NC Central at home before giving South Carolina a run for its money on the road in a 23-33 loss.  They bounced back with one of the biggest upsets last week, topping Virginia Tech on the road 28-21.

North Carolina (2-0) has only played two games thus far, beating Liberty 56-29 and San Diego State 31-27 at home.  It has had a bye week to prepare for East Carolina heading into this one, which is a huge advantage.

I simply believe that the Pirates are overvalued here as the favorites because of their win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, VA Tech was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Ohio State the previous week.  Now, ECU is in a letdown spot off its win over the Hokies.  That's just the nature of college football folks.  ECU will not bring the same effort it had against VA Tech.

UNC, meanwhile, will be highly motivated for a win here after getting embarrassed by ECU at home by a final of 55-31 last year.  However, QB Marquise Williams did not play in that game against ECU.  All Williams did after being named the starter for the second half of the season was lead the Tar Heels to wins in six of their final seven games with the only loss coming by two points to Duke.

Williams is now 8-1 in his last nine starts for UNC.  He passed for 1,698 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions last year, while also leading the team in rushing (536 yards, 6 TD).  Williams is among 15 returning starters for a Tar Heels team that is expected to compete for an ACC Title.  He is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 424 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores thus far in 2014.

UNC is 12-3-1 all-time against ECU having NEVER lost two straight in this series.  East Carolina is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games.  The Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  ECU is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Virginia vs. BYU
Virginia
+15-110
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +15

BYU (3-0) has taken care of business so far. It went on the road in its opener and beat UConn 35-10 before traveling to Austin and coming away with a 41-7 win over Texas. It also beat Houston by a final of 33-25 last week.

Virginia (2-1) gave UCLA a run for its money at home, but fell short by a final of 20-28. It then topped Richmond 45-13 at home before knocking off previously ranked Louisville 23-21 at home last week.

Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this year. You don’t nearly upset UCLA and then upset Louisville without being a quality team. The signs were there for a turnaround this year as Mike London has been one of the most underrated recruiters in his time at Virginia, but it just hasn’t led to results yet. It is clearly leading to results in 2014 as this is his best team yet with 17 returning starters from last year.

Without question, the Cavaliers have one of the elite defenses in the country, which is going to allow them to keep this game close against BYU. They held a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards and nearly won that game despite the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns. They also held a Bobby Petrino-coached Louisville offense to 282 total yards while forcing four turnovers last week.

The area of the Virginia defense that is going to pay off in this game is its front seven. The Cavaliers are only giving up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. That’s huge because BYU is primarily a running team that averages 259 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. They have a great running QB in Taysom Hill, but he’ll be forced to try and use his arm more in this one, which is his biggest weakness.

Virginia beat BYU 19-16 at home last year behind a great defensive effort. It allowed just 362 total yards in the game, forced three fumbles that were all recovered by BYU, and intercepted Hill once. Hill finished that game 13 of 40 passing for 175 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while rushing for just 42 yards on 11 carries. The Cavaliers are simply built to stop teams like BYU who rely heavily on the run just as they did last year. The scary thing is that their defense is five times better in 2014.

While the Cavaliers had plenty to celebrate with their win over Louisville, they quickly turned their attention to BYU with a players-only meeting.  "We just gotta stay hungry," receiver Canaan Severin told the school's official website. "Henry (Coley) just wanted to get that point across: You can't be satisfied just by getting that big win. We want more wins than that. We can talk about the win for a whole week, or we can prepare for BYU, and that's what we did."

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BYU is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I simply believe the Cougars are being overvalued here because they are in the national spotlight due to their 3-0 start, which has earned them the No. 21 ranking in the country.  Take Virginia Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa
+7-107
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa Hawkeyes +7

Pittsburgh (3-0) has taken care of business thus far with a perfect start to the season. It beat Delaware 62-0 at home before going on the road to take down Boston College (30-20) and Florida International (42-25) each of the past two weeks.

Iowa (2-1) has gotten off to a shaky start to say the least. It escaped with a 28-20 home win over Northern Iowa before a 17-13 triumph at home against Ball State. Its luck ran out last week with a 17-20 home loss to Iowa State.

This line opened right around a pick ‘em before the season. I understand that everyone should adjust their power rankings based on what they see on the field, but I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here. They have swung the line a full seven points in Pittsburgh’s favor based on what’s happened so far. I still believe the Hawkeyes are the better team, and that will show on the field Saturday.

The betting public is way down on Iowa right now because it has survived a couple scares from Northern Iowa and Ball State, while losing to Iowa State. The thing is that this team has almost always played up and down to its competition ever since Kirk Ferentz has been there. The Hawkeyes will be hungry for a win after blowing a 14-3 lead to the Cyclones last week. They tend to respond well following a loss to Iowa State, going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in this situation.

Pittsburgh is getting way too much respect following its 3-0 start against very weak competition. Indeed, Delaware, Boston College and Florida International are all terrible teams. Sure, BC beat USC last week, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Trojans, who were coming off a win over Stanford the previous week and should have lost that game. The Panthers only beat FIU, which went 1-11 last season, by 17 as a 24.5-point favorite.

Both Iowa and Pittsburgh play very similar styles, which is why I believe this game will go right down to the wire, thus the value is with the 7-point underdog.  That has been the case the past two times that these teams have played each other, both of which have come since 2008.  The two meetings were decided by a combined five points with a 31-27 home win by Iowa (2011) and a 21-20 home win by Pitt (2008).

Iowa leans heavily on the run, averaging 36 carries per game. Pittsburgh relies even more heavily on it, averaging 53 per game. The Panthers only throw the ball 18 times per game thus far. Iowa’s biggest strength is its run defense, which is giving up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry.

Iowa is 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry. The Hawkeyes are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. great offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game. Iowa is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

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2011

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2008

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