NFL Handicapping & Turnovers

October 14, 2009

Jim Feist is one of the best sports handicappers around and wants to help you win more games even if you don’t sign up for his sports picks service. Read this article on how he uses turnovers with his NFL handicapping and win a few more of your bets.

A recent Monday Night Football game saw Brett Favre battle his old team, the Packers. Favre was the story, with a terrific performance, but young QB Aaron Rodgers put up some sizzling numbers, with 384 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive. Did they win? Or cover? No, as the Vikings won 30-23. The most apparent explanation and it’s obvious: 2 turnovers. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the spread when studying NFL football picks.

Defensive coaches have been advocating more aggressive, attacking schemes over the last 15 years. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the largest change he had observed in the college game, Spurrier talked not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped make famous, but about the other side of the ball. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and responded to what the offense would try and do.

However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears celebrated 46 defense caused mayhem around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the odds, led by a crushing, attacking defense. They shut four teams out and held 14 of 19 foes to 10 points or less.

Defensive coaches in both the pro and college levels have been instructing players to not only tackle the right way, but to aggressively peel the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their instructing talents to advance defenses. A crucial element of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. Take a look at the bottom teams in turnover margin in the NFL last season:

2008 Worst TO Margin — ATS record

Broncos (-17) — 4-11-1 ATS
49ers (-17) —–7-8-1 ATS
Cowboys (-11) — 7-9 ATS
Texans (-10) — 9-7 ATS
Lions (-9) — 7-9 ATS
Bills (-8) —- 7-9 ATS

Some of the teams on that list likely surprise you. The Broncos? A team that had a high flying offense and should have won the AFC West? Well they didn’t, going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games, blowing the division title. Dallas? The Cowboys had a chance to make the postseason on the final day, but disappointed in an embarrassing 44-6 loss at Philadelphia. Now you know an even deeper reason those teams were in such a desperate late season place — turnovers.

So none of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason. Those teams were also a combined 41-53-2 ATS, a factor to keep in mind when evaluating weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even carry over onto the sidelines.

A few year’s ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 picks against the Panthers and while St. Louis had a chance to win the game late in the final quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to go conservative and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely picked apart for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it’s clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, “I don’t want Bulger to throw another interception. I’d better play it safe.”

Last season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential — Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis — all made the postseason with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers last year, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season.

2008 Top TO Margin – ATS record

Dolphins (+17) —- 8-9 ATS
Titans (+14) ——12-5 ATS
Ravens (+13) —– 14-5 ATS
Giants (+9) ——12-5 ATS
Colt (+9) ——7-9-1 ATS

It’s not hard to acknowledge how crucial turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin made the playoffs in 2008, and two were the top teams in their conference. They were a combined 53-33-1 against the spread. The Titans had a 13-3 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a huge element in their unsatisfactory start.

Going back a step further, the cumulative spread record of the 2005 NFL top turnover teams: 70-47-5 against the number, and that doesn’t even include the champion Steelers, who had a 13-7 ATS record. The Steelers were not far off the list, either, ranking 10th in TO margin at +7. Teams good at creating turnovers not only win on the field but there is a correlation at the pay window.

Be careful taking teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when handicapping football. Chances are they don’t win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball.

Written by Jack Jones · Filed Under NFL

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