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North Carolina Rutgers Free Picks

Many reasons to like North Carolina over Rutgers on Thursday Night.

A quick glance at Butch Davis debut year, 4-8 (3-5 ACC), leaves one pretty underwhelmed - esp. with paltry offensive punch, and middle of the pack defensive numbers from last years’ squad.

It’d be easy to assume that 18 Starters returning from a 4-8 team would not necessarily result in a higher win total this year - until a deeper look into these players and improvement as year progressed, and analysis of the depth and continuity of the team.
UNC was the 4th youngest team in D-I last year - Florida was youngest, but 18 players return - every player on offense, save SR LG Bishop - whom started 6 games in 06 - one game shy of being labeled as a ‘Returning Starter”.

QB Yates had a misleading poor finish to his RFr year - after he began year with a bang - with top 5 in NCAA after 1st 4 games in passing efficiency - then lost a great deal of velocity and played with bum arm the rest of the year.

Successful off-season surgery has revived Yates - who reportedly had great Fall camp, with as much velocity and touch as ever - and recaptured starting job again after brief QB battle with Cameron Sexton (JR). Yates has underrated receiver corps to throw to, esp. RAC specialist, Brandon Tate - who Davis’ just cannot find enough ways to get ball to - return, tailback, fly sweep, ect….

CLOSE GAMES: NINE OF 11 (D-1) GMS UNC PLAYED WERE DECIDED BY 7 OR <.

Two losses by 37-10 scores were at So Fla and at Wake - both 9-4 teams on road

With the avg team, going 3-6 in close games might be a negative - but -

Davis’ team has shown resiliency after tough defeats and in difficult circumstances:

In 2nd of BTB Roadies, UNC nearly upset VT as +19 dog in Blacksburg after a 37-10 loss at S Fla

UNC beat MD 16-13 (07 Bowl Team), after 37-10 loss at Wake.

UNC’s secondary is very good and underrated -

Great Safety’s:

NFL Prospect Goodard (SR), and

Freshman Def POY, Williams.

UNC also inserts game-ready TOP RANKED JUCO DB, Mel Williams - and

Davis’ trademark shuffling of the deck to maximize his great athletes from middle of the o-depth chart - little pt, to getting them on the filed to play DB, SS, FS has continued with typical instant results -

Davis UNC vastly under-rated and lightening quick Secondary is a who’s who of former Offensive Players:
Left Corner, Converted WR speedster Charles Brown - startered and played in 9 games as TRUE FR ly - is great tackling Corner (had 59 tackles last year - 5 for losses - and a dozen break-ups) and

FS Jolly SO - is former RB

SO Merlett is Jolly’s back-up - but plays on Nickle / Dime - great cover guy (another former RB),

Even the platooning SS, Sarcy (SO) was once a LB!

The long and short of it is that UNC’s re-built secondary has been labeled by many as the fastest most underrated group in NCAA

Phil Steele:

UNC DB’s “….this figures to be the most improved & talented secondaries in the NCAA”.

UNC MATCH-UPS VS RUTGERS:

In Wk 1, Rutgers Rush yards were EVEN MORE lacking than we’d thought they may be with absence of do-it-all Ray Rice’s departure for NFL -

RB - Gaping hole with Rice’s departure a year earlier than planned -

106 yds rushing by Rutgers - regardless of the opp., a dramatic deficiency for any Schiano team….

UNC SECONDARY - VS RUTGER’S SUDDENLY ONE-DIMENSIONAL ATTACK OF QB TEEL | KNIGHTS PASSING GAME is a very significant statistical, match-up advantage for North Carolina

Perhaps a similar problematic aspect for UNC’s offense may be Rutgers’ Secondary - which really is in top 2 or 3 in Big East

The difference is that UNC has an outstanding group of receivers -

TOP NINE RECEIVERS IN UNC STAT BOOK ALL RETURN -

WITH UNC QB YATES 100% RECOVERED -

VERY GOOD BACK-UP QB IN WAIT - Sexton.

1. TWO SUPERB RECRUITING CLASSES IN CHAPPEL HILL FOR DAVIS
2. A ONE YEAR BACK-STEP FOR SCHIANO’S KNIGHTS
3. IT LEADS ME TO STRONGLY LEAN TOWARD HEELS HERE….

WITH A FEW MORE FACTS TO CONSIDER:

1. UNC HAS NOT WON A GAME OUTSIDE OF STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SIX PLUS YEARS!
2. RUTGERS LOPSIDED HOME LOSS TO FRESNO STATE HAS THIS LINE UNDER A TD -

3. IF AND WHEN THIS GETS UP TO UNC +7, I LIKE THE HEELS A WHOLE HELL OF A LOT MORE - BUT

RUTGERS RUNNING GAME INEPTITUDE AND

THE STRENGTHS OF BOTH SECONDARIES LEAVES A MUCH STRONGER WAGER POSSIBILITY of:

-110 TO -130 TEASER, INVOLVING:

1. UNC PLUS DOUBLE DIGITS WITH
2. UNDER HIGH-50′S (NUMBER IS FORTHCOMING, BUT OUGHTA BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 48 -53, YOU’D THINK)

FIRST SELECTION:

NORTH CAROLINA +5 | 0.5 UNIT

(IT’LL NUDGE TO 1 UNIT AT 6.5, GLADLY BUY HALF POINT ON ROAD, AND 1.5 UNIT AT +7 - WISHFUL)

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