Sean Murphy

SEC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Florida at 12:45 pm et on Saturday.

Bettors have been burned by South Carolina in four straight games with three of those coming in high-profile SEC affairs. The Gamecocks were only non-competitive in one of those games, however, that coming in a 49-18 dismantling at red hot Alabama two weeks ago. I think this is the spot where most bettors jump off the Gamecocks or even fade them but I feel it's the wrong spot to do so. Florida had its perfect 4-0 start ruined in a 45-17 loss at Missouri last week. I do wonder if the Gators 'emptied their tank' during that season-opening run, scoring a ridiculous 214 points over that stretch. Most will see this as a slam dunk for the Gators against a Gamecocks team that has lost eight straight games in-conference going back to last season. The books don't generally offer many gifts, however, and I believe South Carolina will find a way to stay inside this double-digit pointspread and perhaps even challenge for the outright win. Take South Carolina.

My selection is on Toledo minus the points over Buffalo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo easily covered the pointspread in a 20-17 home loss to Western Michigan last week but that marked just its first ATS victory of the campaign to date. I still don't think the Bulls are very good - their two wins this season came against FCS opponents in Albany and Robert Morris. Toledo couldn't cover the spread in last week's 39-24 win at Ball State. That was the Rockets fourth straight victory, however, and they've yet to lose consecutive games ATS this season. I don't think Toledo will have any trouble putting away Buffalo in this game, noting it has averaged over 7.0 yards per play at the Glass Bowl this season. In stark contrast, the Bulls have yet to average 5.0 yards per play in any game this season. Take Toledo.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford has been a complete no-show in its two previous ACC road games, scoring a grand total of 10 points in losses at Duke and most recently Wake Forest. I do think it catches Notre Dame at the right time on Saturday as the Irish return home after going all-out in consecutive double-digit road wins over Purdue and North Carolina (scoring a whopping 86 points). This is a spot where I would anticipate Notre Dame taking a bit of a breather in a very winnable game ahead of next week's tough road tilt at BYU. The straight-up winner has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Cardinal's five games to date this season but I look for that streak to end here as they bounce back with a better effort after last Saturday's embarrassing loss. Take Stanford.

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off their worst defensive performances of the season to date. Syracuse gave up 41 points and 6.7 yards per play in an eventual one-point overtime win at Connecticut. Meanwhile, Virginia allowed 38 points on 7.1 yards per play in a 31-point beatdown at Florida State. I think both defenses are a lot better than they showed in their respective games last week. However, I believe the jury is still out as to how good the two offenses are, Syracuse in particular. Keep in mind, the Orange have been held to fewer than 20 points against the likes of California and Pittsburgh this season - two good but not great defensive teams. Virginia has had some big performances offensively but the two biggest came against an FCS squad Norfolk State and an overmatched non-conference foe in Delaware. I think it's a little difficult for oddsmakers to set an accurate total here when you consider these two ACC teams haven't met in a number of years. I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under.

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and Northern Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

To say that the Northern Illinois offense is punchless would be an understatement. You'd be hard-pressed to find a weaker FBS team than the Huskies this year, a bit of a stunning development as this successful program makes the transition in its first year in the Mountain West Conference. The good news is, NIU does come off a much-needed bye week and I think it can turn things around defensively as the schedule lightens up after playing three of its first four games on the road against tough opposition. Keep in mind, this is a team that lost the bulk of its defense from a year ago and had to essentially start from scratch to open the season. I do think a week off can help on that side of the football. The Huskies catch a break here as Air Force lost quarterback Liam Szarka to a season-ending injury in last Saturday's low-scoring victory over Navy. The Falcons had gotten off to a hot start to the season offensively before being held to just 14 points against the Midshipmen. Szarka was certainly a big part of the offense as he had run for just shy of 700 yards and seven touchdowns through the first three-plus games. When he went down to a late season injury last year, the Falcons offense struggled to regain its footing. Take the under.

West Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I'm comfortable betting on the fact that we were a week early fading the Stampeders last time out. On Saturday, they'll be looking to wrap up a 3-0 road stretch and notch their fourth win in a row overall, not to mention their third straight ATS victory. We'll bet against that happening as they travel to Winnipeg to face a Blue Bombers squad that is sure to be in a foul mood off a 37-10 loss in Montreal last week - its second straight defeat both SU and ATS. All is not lost for the Bombers. They're 7-8 on the season, just a half-game behind the Stampeders in the West Division standings. This is undoubtedly a critical spot, however, as they'll wrap up the regular season with a pair of difficult road games at Edmonton and B.C. For Calgary, it will glance ahead at its regular season finale which comes next Saturday at home against B.C. There's been little to choose between the Stamps and Bombers this season with each team winning on its opponent's field in two previous matchups. Noting that Calgary is into uncharted territory riding a season-high three-game winning streak while Winnipeg will aim to avoid what would be a season-high third straight loss, we'll back the home side here. Take Winnipeg.

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This total has already been bet up considerably as most bettors are expecting plenty of fireworks in this matchup of high-powered offensive teams. We'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring game than expected. Arizona has scored 34+ points in four of its five games so far this season but it hasn't exactly faced an elite slate of defensive opponents. Those four offensive outbursts came against Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, Washington State and Cincinnati. Given the relatively weak slate of opponents, it's tough to get a true gauge on the Wildcats but I will point to their toughest matchup to date which came back in Week 2 at BYU - a game that totalled just 45 points as the Cougars prevailed 28-17. West Virginia has actually faced an even weaker strength of schedule than Arizona by most metrics. The Mountaineers offense has feasted on its share of overmatched defensive opponents. After a wild, high-scoring 45-42 defeat at Iowa State last week (their second straight loss), I look for the Mountaineers to settle things down a bit here. I have West Virginia rated as a weaker offensive but stronger defensive team than the stats have shown to this point of the season which is a perfect recipe for an 'under' result on Saturday. Take the under.

My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We were a week early backing the Broncos as they won but never sniffed an ATS cover in Buffalo last week. Western Michigan was though to be a possible CFP contender this year but it hasn't necessarily played out that way even though it gave Michigan a real scare at the Big House back in Week 1. The loss to Boise State two weeks ago was tough but the Broncos still have everything to play for in the MAC and they'll get a chance to take their frustrations out on Kent State on Saturday. Note that the Golden Flashes are coming off back-to-back ATS victories in conference play. With that being said they could only muster 10 points in last week's defeat against Ohio. I expect Kent State to have a very difficult time keeping Western Michigan at arm's length on Saturday. Take Western Michigan.

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Tar Heels as they look to give the undefeated Panthers all they can handle at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday. Pittsburgh is 5-0 on the season after last week's primetime 'upset' win over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. I do think the jury is still out as to how good the Panthers actually are. Last week's game marked their first road contest of the season. North Carolina is coming off back-to-back losses but those were difficult matchups on the road against a desperate Clemson team and at home against a national title contender in Notre Dame. While Pitt owns the better overall record in this matchup this season, North Carolina has faced a significantly more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take North Carolina.