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Today’s Free Winning ATS Sports Picks from Top Vegas Handicappers
The free soccer play takes place in Scotland on Saturday. I think we see a 1-1 score.
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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Dallas Mavericks +2.5
It's definitely scary to step in front of the Utah Jazz with the way they are playing right now. They are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. But this feels like the perfect spot to do it.
The Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Knicks 108-94 last night. The game wasn't as lopsided as the final score would indicate. In fact, the Jazz had to erase a 13-point halftime deficit, and they were still trailing entering the 4th quarter. So they were forced to play their starters extended minutes.
Now the Jazz have to face a rested Dallas Mavericks team that had yesterday off. It's also the healthiest the Mavericks have been all season. They are expected to get Powell, Richardson and Finney-Smith back in the lineup today. The only key player they may still be missing is Maxi Klieber.
The Mavericks are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 road games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games this season. Dallas is 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
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Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Utah State -6.5
The Key: The Utah State Aggies had gone 11-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in its previous 11 games overall prior to losing each of its last 2 games to Colorado State and UNLV. Now the Aggies should give a big effort tonight to get back in the win column and avenge their 56-59 loss to UNLV on Monday. Utah State gets to play the Rebels again today to make things right. This is a UNLV team that is down this season at 6-6 and getting too much credit for its 5-game winning streak that has featured victories over New Mexico twice, Benedictine and St. Katherine. The Aggies are 9-2 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. Take Utah State.
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Free Play on Jazz -1 -109
The Warriors clobbered the Wolves by a 130-108 count the night before last in the first of back to back games in this series. Note: Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite and are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and are a bank roll depleting 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. I know the recency bias of the last game between these teams might cause some hestinecy on taking points, however on closer inspection of the results its obvious to me Minnesota has the ability to hang around and get uis the cover. ( The Warriors outshot the Timberwolves 49.4 percent to 41.5 percent from the field and outscored them 42-24 on 3-pointers. I don't see that sceanrio repeating itself again, and Warriors now ready for regression to the mean)
According to SRS Home data the line should be closer to -8 thus there is slight value here taking 9 or more points. ( Minn SRS-8.38 vs GS SRS- -0.85) (Divergence for home court to be equated at -1.5 instead of usual -3 because of lack of true home court advantage because of attendence.
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. GOLDEN STATE is 15-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons
NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 17-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Minnesota to cover