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Today’s Free Winning ATS Sports Picks from Top Vegas Handicappers
Free Pick on Warriors/Spurs OVER
I'm recommending a play on the OVER in Sunday's showdown between the Warriors and Spurs. I just think it's really hard for teams to bring the defensive intensity in this situation, where you have a team up 3-0 with the series all but over. We played and cashed the OVER with yesterday's free pick in a similar spot with the Pelicans up 3-0 on the Blazers. That game saw a combined 254 points in a 131-123 New Orleans win. It was the highest scoring game in that series by more than 30 points.
While I don't think the Spurs and Warriors are going to be combining for 250+, I do think we could see these two eclipse the mark for this contest by quite a bit. The total here is in the low 200's and each of the first 3 games in the series have seen at least 205 points scored. Keep in mind that in last year's playoffs these two teams met and the Warriors swept with Game 4 in that contest seeing a combined 244 points (total of just 218.5). Take the OVER!
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Free Total Annihilator On Cavs vs Pacers under 205 -110
1* on Giants +109
My 1* Free Play is on the LA Angels.
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Off yesterday’s 4-3 victory, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done in the finale of this inter league series on Sunday afternoon as well.
The Giants hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (1-0, 0.45 ERA), who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up two hits over seven innings, while striking out 11 and walking none. So far Cueto has given up just one run over his first 20 innings this season.
I’m not fully convinced though that Cueto has turned the corner quite yet after a disappointing 2017 season which saw him post an elevated 4.52 ERA.
The home side counters with Jaime Barria (1-0, 1.80), who has been called up again to make another start after giving up one earned run off three hits while also striking out three over five innings in a victory over the Rangers on April 11th. In between Barria is coming off a stellar Triple-A start on Tuesday.
I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 2-4 (-2. 1 units) this year against right-handed starters, while LA is 10-5 (+4.5 units in the same position.
I like Barria to match pace with Cueto and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side in my opinion. Consider the Angels on Sunday afternoon.
1* Free Play on Pacers +1 +102
JOHN RYAN SPORTS RESEARCH REPORT
BOSTON (17 - 2) at OAKLAND (9 - 11)
Sunday, 4/21/2018 4:05 PM
4 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 4-star wager on Oakland using the money line, which currently has Oakland istalled as a +125 home dog.
Game Intelligence Analytics
Play against any team (BOSTON) with an excellent SLG percentage of at least 450 and is now facing an AL starting pitcher with excellent control posting a WHIP of 1.300 or lower and has been a hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 15 games.
(29-12 over the last 5 seasons for 70.7%, $2300 per $100 wagered)
The hottest team this season and one that was off to one of the best starts to a season in MLB history was hot-hit Saturday by a starter in only his third year of play at the MLB level. How can you not be romantic about baseball. ‘Money Ball’
So, teams that were no-hitted in the previous game and have a win percentage greater than the current opponent are 8-9 losing 3.54 units and averaging a 139 favorite. This play against situation has produced a favorable 15.7% Return on investment (ROI). With the same criteria in play and using the Run Line has produced a 5-10 record using 5.12 units for an impressive 22% ROI.
SIM Matching Game Situations
Oakland is a solid 10-1 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games facing a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons.
Oakland is a perfect 7-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons.
Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports.
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for the Top-Rated 10 Star College Hardwood Titans.
NBA since March 1 20-10 ATS for 67%.
NBA Playoffs 8-2 ATS 80%.
NBA 10-Star plays 7-3 ATS for 70%.
MLB 10-Star plays 3-0 making 3.55 units
Free Play on Cubs -115
1 Unit FREE PLAY on San Antonio Spurs +7
The Spurs will show some pride here in Game 4. Of course this series is probably over down 0-3, but the Spurs aren’t the type of team to just pack it in. They will want to win one for Greg Popovich. And the best part about that is that they don’t even have to win the game for us to win, they just need to stay within 7 points. This will likely be the most competitive game of the series. I look for the Warriors to relax in Game 4 given the situation. The Spurs are 33-9 SU & 26-15-1 ATS at home this season. San Antonio is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Warriors are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. Golden State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of its home games. Give me the Spurs.
The NHL Comp Play is on Nashville at 7:05 eastern. Nashville should end the series here tonight as they are 7-1 in Colorado and have won 10 of 13 on the road if the total is 6 or more. The Predators are 8-2 vs a team that allowed 2 or less goals and 41-19 if they allowed 2 or less goals. Colorado stole one on the road with a comeback win but they are 0-5 off a win and 1-5 after allowing 2 or less goals. Play on the Predators tonight. On Sunday the First Round Game of the Year headlines the NBA Playoff card along with a 5* Total and a Solid MLB Card that includes the Sunday nighter on ESPN. For the NHL Free Play. Go with Nashville. RV- GC Sports
R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Sunday 4-22-18
OVER 8 1/2 -142 Boston/Oakland
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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Sunday Free Pick San Antonio Spurs (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - With the Spurs losing each of the first two games at Golden State (and failing to cover) a long impressive ATS stretch was extended. It was temporarily halted with San Antonio's home loss (and failure to cover in Game 3) but it is still quite impressive. Even after Thursday's loss, the home team is now 18-2 ATS in San Antonio's last 20 games! That's right, starting with a March 10th ATS loss at Oklahoma City, the Spurs have seen the home team get the money in 90% of their games the past six weeks! Look for that trend to continue here as San Antonio bounces back on their home floor as they are desperate to avoid the sweep. The Spurs, prior to the Game 3 loss, had won 11 in a row SU at home but I am recommending grabbing the generous points here in case they again fall short in this one. They have played well in stretches but just haven't been able to sustain it long enough for an ATS victory but that is precisely what I am expecting the Spurs to do Sunday. Maybe they do get swept here but, if they do, it won't be without going down fighting and I expect that to result in a loss by no more than two possessions! Free Pick SAN ANTONIO
#MLB FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies have split the first two games of this series with the Cubs posting a 16-5 victory in the opener on Friday and the Rockies winning 5-2 yesterday.
I like the Cubs here in the rubber match with left-hander Jose Quintana (1-1, 8.16 ERA) on the hill. Quintana has been lit up in two of his three starts this season, but he is 1-0 with a solid 3.65 ERA in two career starts against the Rockies, who counter with German Marquez (1-1, 4.34). The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA in four starts on the season and 1-0, 0.82 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs, but he has been tagged with seven runs on eight hits and six walks in 7 2/3 frames here at Coors Field.
The Rockies are dead last in the National League with a .218 batting average while the Cubs have the potential to score plenty of run if things go their way; note that they've averaged 9.4 runs in their nine wins on the season.
Cubs are 29-7 in their last 36 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Free pick on Chicago Cubs.
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10* FREE MLB PICK (Braves -115)
I'll take my chances here with Atlanta as a short home favorite against the Mets. The Braves are coming off an emotional win on Saturday. After giving up 3 runs in the top of the 8th in scoreless game, Atlanta scored twice in the bottom of the 8th and two more in the bottom of the 9th for a dramatic 4-3 win over New York. That's the kind of win that gets you excited to come to the park and the kind of loss that is really tough to bounce back from. The pitching matchup looks pretty even on paper with Zack Wheeler of the Mets going up against Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves, but I give the edge slight edge to Atlanta there. NY is just 1-7 in Wheeler's last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-6 in his last 7 starts after a loss. Give me the Braves -115!
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Take the draw at +203 in this soccer match that takes place on Monday at noon eastern.
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NBA SYSTEM OF THE DAY: In database history, road favorites between -4 and -11 off of 3+ straight games where they put up 105 points or more are 197-117-8 ATS (62.7%) (Warriors)