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Today’s Free Winning ATS Sports Picks from Top Vegas Handicappers
Free Play on Nebraska -3½ -110
1* on Warriors -2½ -110
1* Free Play on UNLV +10 -109
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins -1.5
I usually like going against teams who are coming off a blowout win the previous week. They are almost always overvalued the next week, and I think that’s the case here with the Dallas Cowboys. This line should be Washington -3, and instead it’s Washington -1.5. We’re getting some value here with the Redskins.
The Cowboys are coming off a 40-7 blowout victory over the Jaguars at home. They improved to 3-0 at home this season. Big deal. The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road this season, and they have been dominated for the most part, especially statistically.
The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 points per game on the road this season. They are getting outscored by 7.4 points per game and outgained by 74 yards per game. And their three losses have come to the Panthers, Seahawks and Texans, so it’s not like they are playing world beaters away from home.
The Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this season. They are 3-2 right now and sit atop the NFC East. They already head their bye week so they are fresher than most teams. And they have played very well at home this season.
Indeed, the Redskins are 2-1 at home this year. They have wins over the Packers 31-17 and the Panthers 23-17 who I believe are both better than the Cowboys. And their only loss came 9-21 to the Colts and it was very fluky. The Redskins outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. They are outgaining opponents by 18 yards per game this season, so there is nothing fluky about their 3-2 start.
I think a big key here is that Washington’s defense is better than it gets credit for, and it is certainly good at stopping the run. The Redskins give up just 90 rushing yards per game this season. And the Cowboys only average 172 passing yards per game. The Cowboys are a one-dimensional offense with their running game, and the Redskins have the players to stop it. The Cowboys will have their passing game hampered even more this week with two key receivers in Tavon Austin and Terrance Williams expected to sit out.
Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less in its previous game. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
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3* on Michigan State
1* Free Pick on Iowa/Maryland UNDER
Analysis will be posted shortly
Missouri is banged up and bruised after tussling with power house Alabama last week, losing by a 39-10 count. Now in a non conference game they may not be 100% into this tilt and not healthy enough to do so as key top WRs, Emanual Hall and Nate Hall are hobbled by nagging injuries and if they do play may seem limited time. It must be noted Missouri just is 0-7-1 ATS L/8 non conference tilts as single digit favs on the opening line. Meanwhile, Memphis is off a head scratching 31-30 loss vs undefeated UCF last time out, a game that could have easily been theirs if it were not for bad clock management and sudden defensive lapses late in the game. Needless to say the conspiracy guys were outing full force after that tilt, and I feel like the visiting Tigers need to prove themselves this week in a big way or remain under the microscope of scrutiny.
MEMPHIS is 13-3 ATS L/16 off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Memphis to cover
Play on Memphis to cover
Free Total Annihilator On Illinois vs Wisconsin over 57 -105
1* Free Play on Chargers -6½ -104
Dave’s Friday Free Play:
1* on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5
The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavs without Lebron James. I think we see some inflated numbers early and there will be some value backing the Cavs for a few weeks to open the NBA season because of it. The Cavs still have some nice chemistry with Tyronn Lue entering his 4th year, and still plenty of talent with Kevin Love now the focal point. The Cavs covered as 13-point underdogs at the Raptors in their opener. And now they’re catching 8.5 points on the road to the Timberwolves tonight. This is a Minnesota team that lacks chemistry right now thanks to the Jimmy Butler trade demand. And they lost their opener to the Spurs. I don’t think they should be laying this many points to anyone right now. Take Cleveland.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5
The Jaguars have lost back-to-back road games in blowout fashion to the Chiefs (14-30) and Cowboys (7-40). It’s safe to say they will be looking to take out their frustration this week at home against the Houston Texans. Their defense should get back to being the dominant unit it has been over the past two seasons with the exception of the last two weeks. The Jaguars have given up just 13.7 points and 238 yards per game at home this season. They have beaten the Patriots by 11 and the Jets by 19 at home this year. They did lose 6-9 to the Titans, but that was a letdown spot off the big win over the Patriots. The Texans are starting to get some respect off three straight wins following an 0-3 start to the season. But they could have lost all three of those games. They needed OT to beat the Colts and Cowboys, and they needed a pick-6 late out of Nathan Peterman to beat the Bills at home last week. I don’t expect this one-dimensional Houston offense to have much success against the Jaguars this week. Deshaun Watson will be running for his life without a running game. Doug Marrone is 7-0 ATS in his last seven games as a head coach after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in his previous game. Give me the Jaguars.
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R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Friday 10-19-18
UNDER 63 -108 Boise State/Colorado State
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Free soccer play takes place in Spain on October 20. Take the draw at +216.
Atletico Madrid 1
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #376 Ohio Bobcats over Bowling Green Falcons (2p.m., Saturday, October 20 ESPN 3) The Falcons are one of the worst teams in the country and just fired their coach after a 1-6 start (0-6 against FBS teams). They have been a little more competitive of late but playing their third straight road games in their last 4 games will doom them in today in Athens, OH. The Bobcats are 3-3 on the year and on pace to become bowl eligible but must win this game in order to achieve that. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 match-ups between Bowling Green and Ohio. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Falcons are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. 4-0 run on 10* selections after a B-L-O-W-O-U-T SEC GAME OF THE YEAR last Saturday as underdog LSU destroyed Georgia. Get in on a one week or one month package now!
DMack's Free Play for Sunday, October 21, 2018 is on the Browns/Buccaneers Over
The Buccs have been brutal on defense and that cost DC Mike Smith his job on Monday. Not sure what can be done with it at this point other than to find a better scheme to somewhat fit your current personnel. The Chargers laid the perfect blueprint out on his to attack Cleveland last week, the first game where the Brownies really weren't competitive. Still see Mayfield getting points by improvising his way down field with Famous Jameis doing the same for Tampa Bay. Put this one on closer to 60 than 50. Play the Over.
Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Cowboys and Skins Under
A classic rivalry with a very different look this year. The Cowboys are off a "perfect storm" in crushing the Jags on Sunday. Dak and Zeke will be on the road and running into the teeth of a solid defensive front seven that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this year. The Cowboy defense is their best unit but they face a generally turnover-proof Alex Smith here and rejuvenated running game with Adrian Peterson leading the way. Lost of football between the 20s with the clock running. This series has posted five straight overs but that run comes to an end here. 20-17 .... regardless.
This is a Free NCAAF play on the Washington State Cougars. The Ducks are moving up in the rankings after an upset win over the Washington Huskies on Saturday. The Huskies were in position to win the game in the fourth quarter, but Peyton Henry missed a 37 yard (chip shot) field goal in the dying seconds. That allowed Oregon to come back and win in overtime. The Ducks are flying high as they head into Pullman for a date with the Cougars, but this game has all the signs of a classic let down spot for the visitors. Washington State is coming off a bye week, and they are still undefeated at home. One of their three home wins came against a very strong Utah team. The Ducks have lost three straight to Washington State, and their last game at Pullman was a 51-33 loss in 2016. The Ducks get a lot of love from bettors, but in recent years they have proven to be overrated. That is evidenced by the fact that they have failed to cover in eight consecutive games versus these Cougars. Take WAZZU! GL,
1* Free Sharp Play on Ohio State vs Purdue over 67 -105
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: A plus .500 team off of a win as a home dog. 90-149-8 ATS 37.7% in database history. - Fade the Dolphins this week
KEY TEAM TREND OF THE WEEK: The Browns are 0-23 since Oct 25, 2015 on the road
+ The Vikings are 0-15 ATS (-11.67 ppg) on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
The Eagles are 0-14 OU (-8.46 ppg) as a favorite off a win as a favorite in which they scored 10+ points more than their season-to-date average.The Broncos are 0-14 OU (-10.12 ppg) when the line is within three of pick on grass when they are playing a team with a better record.The Broncos are 17-0 OU (+13.12 ppg) as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent that had less than 26:15 minutes of possession time in their last game.
[1%] Free Play on Bucs -3
Oregon State +7.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cal Golden Bears and the Oregon State Beavers face off Saturday and in this game the value is with the Beavers.
Cal got off to a fast start, but the wheels have fallen off and they come into this game having lost 37-7 against a bad UCLA team.
Oregon State hasn't been great but they finally got the offense going in the last game and I think that can carry them in this game.
Back the Beavers
5* FREE Cappers Club Play on Oregon State
Good Luck, Cappers Club.
My free play is on LSU at 7:00 ET.
LSU opened the season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but wasted no time making its mark, taking down then-No. 8 Miami 37-17 at Arlington, Tx, as a three-point dog. The Tigers followed two weeks later with a 22-21 win at then-No. 7 Auburn, this time as a 10-point dog. Not to be undone, LSU won 36-16 last Saturday as a seven-point home dog against then-No. 2 Georgia. However, there is 'no rest for the weary' when one plays in the SEC. LSU is back at No. 5 in the latest AP poll but faces yet another ranked team this Saturday, as No. 22 Mississippi State visits Baton Rogue. The Bulldogs began the season ranked 18th and reached No. 14 after a 3-0 start but back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Florida dropped them out of the rankings. However, Miss St is back in, after a 23-9 upset of then-No. 8 Auburn on Oct 6. This rivalry is LSU's longest and Mississippi State's second, behind the Egg Bowl against the University of Mississippi. LSU leads the series 73–35–3, after winning 16 of the last 18 meetings.
The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country, allowing an FBS-low 12.7 PPG and ranking eighth in total defense at 289.7 YPG. Defensive lineman Montez Sweat leads the nation in sacks per game (1.25) and tops the SEC in total sacks (7.5). QB Nick Fitzgerald accounted for 264 yards of total offense and two TDs, rushing for 195 and two scores against the Tigers. Fitzgerald is the top rushing QB in SEC history and his 513 yards leads a running game that is averaging an SEC-best 240.7 YPG (18th in the nation).
In contrast to Miss St's run-oriented attack, LSU arguably has the most balanced offense in the nation, rushing and passing for the exact same number of yards (1,415) through seven games. The offense is averaging 32.0 PPG, ranking 52nd. The defensive unit is no slouch, ranking 17th in points allowed (16.9 per) on 340.3 YPG (33rd). Linebacker Devin White was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week after recording a season-high 13 tackles and recovering a fumble in the win over Georgia (he ranks third in the SEC with 66 total tackles and 9.4 per game).
Yes, Mississippi State has limited five of its six opponents to 14 points or fewer but LSU is averaging 37.5 PPG at home this season. It's also very likely that LSU remembers last year's meeting against Miss State in which the Bulldogs blasted the Tigers, 37-7, in Starkville, Ms. It was the most lopsided loss for LSU since Ed Orgeron took over as head coach four games into the 2016 season plus more notably, it was Miss St's largest margin of victory in the all-time series, which dates to 1896. MSU is just 3-7 ATS on the SEC road their last 10. Lay the points with LSU.
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Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER: Penn State.
12:30 pm pst.
Indiana hasn't had any problems besting the likes of Ball State and Rutgers. But, the Hoosiers fell way short when facing the Spartans, the Buckeyes, and the Hawkeyes. Are you beginning to see a pattern here? Penn State comes in here, having not won in a month. The Nittany Lions have taken 4 in a row in this series, both SU and ATS. PSU doesn't just need a win to get back on track, they need a decisive victory to get their mojo and confidence back. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS the L6 road games, 15-5-1 ATS the L21 Conference games, and 21-6-2 ATS the L29 overall games. The Hoosiers are 3-8-1 ATS the L12 home games, 5-15-1 ATS the L21 Conference games, and 3-12-1 ATS the L16 overall games. Take Penn State. Thank you.
Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Friday 10-19-18
New Orleans -11
Mikey cashed with Columbus easily in NHL last night. Passing Friday! Back later Friday with Saturday's College Football Winners!
#MLB FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The first game of this series went way over the total when the Dodgers won 6-5 in Chavez Ravine back on October 12. We've seen four straight low-scoring contest since (three unders and a push), and I think that's a trend likely to continue in this must-win game for the Brewers with the Dodgers owning a 3-1 lead in the series.
Milwaukee hands the ball to left-hander Wade Miley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has yet to allow a run in the postseason. He'll make a second straight start but faced only one batter as a starter in Game 5 before getting replaced by right-hander Brandon Woodruff to counter the Dodgers' righty-heavy lineup. Miley dominated the Dodgers in the regular season, allowing only six hits and no earned runs through 13 innings of work. The Dodgers turn to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-0, 1.59 ERA) who tossed seven shutout innings against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS and gave up two runs in 4 1/3 frames in Game 2 of this series.
Trends supporting the under: Under is 6-1 in Ryus last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-2 in Dodgers' last seven League Championship road games.
8* play on UNDER.
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