Daily Free Guaranteed Sports Picks Against the Spread for Betting

*2 Star Play Under* The Winnipeg defense has gotten healthier and they have really been at their best of late. Winnipeg gave up just 14 points against the Elks a couple weeks ago. They gave up just 10 points to the Tiger Cats last week. The last time Toronto met Winnipeg it went into overtime and it finished 16-14. Toronto doesn't play all that fast and I think this game lends itself to a low scoring tight game. Take the under.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: New Mexico -6.5

I like the spot for the New Mexico Lobos Saturday as they host the Air Force Falcons.  The Lobos are coming off their bye week and have two full weeks to prepare for the triple-option.  The Falcons won't have the element of surprise here, plus New Mexico head coach Bronco Mendenhall has plenty of experience defending the triple-option.

The Lobos have been better than expected this season despite their 1-4 record.  They covered as 14-point dogs and nearly upset Montana State, which is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  They held their own against Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.  They needed the bye week after that gauntlet, and they should come back refreshed and ready to go this week.

Air Force is one of the most overrated teams in college football this season.  The Falcons are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS, and oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for this being one of the worst teams in program history.  Their lone win came against FCS Merrimack 21-6 as 30-point favorites.  Merrimack went on to lose 63-17 to UConn the next week.  Their four losses all came by double-digits, including a 31-19 road loss at Wyoming, which is also one of the worst teams in college football.

This Air Force offense is the main culprit for their struggles.  The Falcons are scoring just 11.4 points per game, averaging 249 yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry.  I don't believe they can keep up with this underrated New Mexico offense, which averages 32.0 points per game, 461.2 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite the tough schedule this season.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arkansas State/Texas State OVER 65.5

The Key: Two offensive-minded head coaches square off in this Sun Belt showdown between Texas State and Arkansas State Saturday.  Last year, Arkansas State turned their season around with a 77-31 win over Texas State that saw 108 combined points.  The Red Wolves kicked an onside kick up 28 and you can bet GJ Kinne and the Bobcats have not forgotten.  If they get the chance to run up the score in this one they will continue piling on the points.  Texas State is scoring 37.6 PPG and averaging 454 YPG this season and will be up against an Arkansas State defense that yields 30.2 PPG, 437 YPG and 6.7 YPP.  Texas State has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses and even gave up 40 points to Sam Houston State and 31 to Arizona State.  Arkansas State has faced a tough schedule of opposing defenses including Iowa State and Michigan.  They should find some traction offensively this week against Texas State.  Take the OVER.

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[1%] Free Play on Winnipeg

Browns vs Eagles 
1 ET | Citizens Bank Park | FOX 
5-Unit Bet on the Browns priced as 9.5-point underdogs. 

The Eagles are a team in flux, and it all starts at the top of the coaching staff and then trickles down to the players, who really do not know which coach is steering the ship. They will get back their two top wide receivers in AJ Brown and Davonte Smith, who both will have a significant impact on the performance of the offense. However, they need to execute no matter who is on the field of play and that has been largely absent since week 1. 

Currently, both WR are expected to start this Sunday, but they are listed as questionable Monday morning. The market has priced them as starting so getting 50% of your bet placed now is a wise strategy because if either does not start this line is going to move toward 7.5 points ahead of the kickoff. 

Offensive multi-All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson is expected to start but is listed as questionable, His level of play has hurt the offensive line’s pass protection, and the result has been that QB Hurts gets flushed out of the pocket early and he then holds on to the ball too long searching for an open receiver.  

The Eagles rank 7th in the NFL gaining an average of 366 YPG but rank 17th averaging 5.5 yard per play and 31st averaging two turnovers per game. The Eagles ground attack led by Barkley has been their saving grace and as a unit rank 4th averaging 154 yards per game and they will need to pound the rock successfully against the Browns defense and control the clock as a game-winning plan. 

The Eagles have had their BYE week and expect them to come in with a offensive game plan to attack the middle of the field with vertical crossing routes. Currently, the Eagles have not stretched defenses with vertical routes as they have averaged just 6.29 adjusted yards per pass attempt. The formula for this ratio is: 

(Passing yards + 20*passing TDs – 45* interceptions)/(pass attempts) 

930 passing yards + 20*4 passing TDs- 4*45 interceptions)/(132 pass attempts) 
(930+80-180)/(132) 

830/132 = 6.29 adjust passing yards per attempt. 

By comparison, the Broncos are last with a 3.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt and the 5-0 Vikings are tops with an impressive 9.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt. So, the Eagles must improve on this passing metric not just this coming week but over the remainder of the season if they are going to make any deep run in the playoffs.  

The Cleveland Defense 

The largest problem for the Eagles offensive line to navigate is the fact that the Browns defense ranks 6th with a 32% blitz percentage, 7th with a 12.4% quarterback knockdown, and have pressured the quarterback on 25% of their defensive plays. The Browns will blitz even more in this game looking to prevent Hurts from looking downfield to complete large chunk gain passes.  

The Philadelphia Defense 

To sum up the Eagles defense with just one meaningful metric is that they rank 26th with a –31.2 expected points contributed by the defense and that compares poorly to the NFL league average of –10.5 this season. Before the season started, the Eagles were expected to score a ton of points and simply outscore their opponents to earn wins. However, the offense is scoring just 21 PPG and the defense allowing even more. My experience tells me that the problems on the sidelines between the coaches and the offensive issues with executing plays to move the chains is not going to improve simply with the return of three players. 

The Analytics in 2024 

The larger underdogs have performed extremely well from a straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) in the first five weeks of the season. Teams priced as the underdog, including pick-em have produced a 29-48 SU and 40-36-1 ATS record (53%) so far. Underdogs of 6 or more points have produced a highly profitable 9-10 SU and 16-3 ATS record (84%) and marks the highest ATS win percentage through five weeks ever since 1989 and the highest since the 1999 season where these pups went 9-22 SU and 20-8-3 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. If these dogs were on the road, they have gone 8-8 SU and 14-2 ATS (88%) this season and the highest win percentage sice 1999 when they went 8-18 SU and 18-6-2 ATS (75%). 

The NFL Betting Algorithm for Week 6 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 40-55 SU and 62-33 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

That dog has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games. 

They are facing a favorite, whose defense forced zero turnovers in their previous game. 

If the favorite is coming off the BYE week our underdogs have barked fiercely going 5-6 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

1* Best Bet on Wolves

No analysis provided.

1* FREE INFO PLAY

Friday NHL Free play. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday.

Tough spot for the 2-0 Blues as they play their third road game in four nights, fresh off a wild, come-from-behind victory in San Jose last night. St. Louis trailed San Jose 4-1 in the third period but rallied for a 5-4 overtime victory. Remember, it also rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Seattle 3-2 in its season debut. The Knights are coming off an 8-4 rout of the Avalanche two nights ago. They'll have the benefit of staying home for their second game. I like their chances of handing the Blues their first loss of the season. While the price is fairly steep, I believe it could be even higher. Take Vegas.

1* on Wizards

1* NCAAF - Ga Tech/N Carolina FREE PICK on North Carolina +4

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Toronto

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Eastern Michigan +2.5

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are getting a lot of respect early in the season after winning the MAC last year.  But this team is a far cry from that one, and that has played out with the Redhawks going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through five games.  The only win came 23-20 at home over UMass.  That's the same UMass team that Eastern Michigan beat 28-14 on the road to give them a common opponent.  The Eagles have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and have been an undervalued commodity.  Their lone loss came on the road at Washington by 21 as 24.5-point dogs.  Their win over Jacksonville State has aged pretty well, and they blew out their other three opponents.  The Eagles had a bye last week so they will be the fresher team.  The Redhawks will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after losing to Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Toledo.  They have been through a tough stretch and I'm not quite sure how much they'll have left for EMU this week.  Wrong team favored.  Give me Eastern Michigan.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Blackhawks

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #128 Pittsburgh Panthers over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 12 ESPN) Cal is still in shellshock after blowing a big lead to Miami in the fourth quarter with some very questionable calls going against them. Now they must fly cross country to Pittsburgh to take on a 5-0 Panther squad. Pittsburgh is coming off a double-digit conference road win last time out and I see them winning this game by double digits as well. Lay the points with the home team on Saturday. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring a top play in college football.

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Friday 10-11-24

OVER 66 1/2 Utah State/UNLV

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ASA NHL Free Play ON Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 (-125) at Winnipeg Jets @ 8:07 ET - Great set up here for a closer game than most would expect. Winnipeg off that fantastic 6-0 win over the Oilers at Edmonton even though they were outshot 30 to 20 in the game. Hellebuyck was fantastic between the pipes and now this is their home opener. A Blackhawks team that is coming off a miserable season plus lost their first game of the new season at Utah Tuesday is in town. Chicago lost that game 5 to 3 and will be underestimated here. The Hawks do have an extra day of rest compared to Winnipeg plus the Jets have another tough game with Minnesota on deck. Facing the Blackhawks right between facing the Oilers and Wild absolutely could have Winnipeg underestimating here. They may still gut out a win but it won't be easy the way we see it and we are grabbing the value with the puck line here. FREE PLAY Chicago +1.5 goals

 The upcoming Mountain West Conference matchup between UNLV and Utah State on Friday showcases two teams in very different positions this season. UNLV, currently 4-1, is having an impressive season with a potent offense averaging 44.4 points per game. Their recent loss to Syracuse was a high-scoring affair (44-41), but they are heavily favored against a struggling Utah State team that sits at 1-4 and has been inconsistent both offensively and defensively. UNLV's offense is led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has been a dual-threat with both his passing and rushing abilities. He leads the team with 260 rushing yards in addition to his passing contributions, making him the focal point of their offensive attack. Wide receiver Ricky White has also been a key player, with six touchdowns this season. Defensively, UNLV has been solid, allowing just 19.8 points per game, and their pass rush and secondary have combined for 10 interceptions, showing their ability to disrupt opposing offenses. Utah State, on the other hand, has struggled on both sides of the ball. Their defense ranks near the bottom of the FBS, giving up 41.4 points per game, which could be a major problem against a high-powered UNLV offense. Offensively, quarterback Spencer Petras has shown flashes but has been inconsistent, and his availability for this game is in question due to a leg injury. Wide receiver Jalen Royals has been a bright spot for the Aggies, leading the team in receiving yards, but Utah State will need a near-perfect performance to keep up with UNLV. With UNLV favored by 18.5 points, the Rebs should be able to use their high octane offense to cover this spread. Utah State could stay close if they cut down on turnovers though. I'll take the OVER as my free play in this game.

1* Free Play on Hurricanes

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Tennessee -14

I'm betting the Volunteers as a 14-point favorite against the Gators. The only thing that's keeping this from being a premium selection, is the lookahead spot with a home game against Alabama on deck. I just think it will be hard for them to lookahead coming off that upset loss at Arkansas. There's more wiggle room with the 12-team playoff, but a loss here and a loss at home to Alabama or at Georgia and they probably don't have a shot. My money is on them to show up against what I think is a very mediocre Florida team. The Gators come in off back-to-back wins and covers at Miss St and home vs UCF. I don't think either of those teams are any good. They were lucky to only lose by 13 at home to Texas A&M (gave up 488 total yards) and lost 17-41 at home to Miami (gave up 529 yards). I don't think Florida's offense will be able to enough here to keep this one close. Give me Tennessee -14! 

Free Total Annihilator On Blues vs Golden Knights over