Dave Price

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:

1* on Temple +13.5

The Key: This is a bad situation to back the Memphis Tigers.  They just ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF with a dramatic 50-49 comeback victory in which they never led until the final two minutes of that game.  I have to expect them to be pretty flat this week here against the Temple Owls.  It’s also a sandwich spot for the Tigers as they have a huge road game with Cincinnati on deck next week.  Temple is better than it has shown thus far with only 2 games under their belts.  They lost by 2 to Navy and only beat South Florida by 2.  But their stats were better than the scores in both games.  They outgained both those teams by 100 YPG and 0.9 YPP.  They can hang with Memphis, which failed to cover against Arkansas State in a 13-point win and lost on the road to SMU prior to beating UCF.  And it’s clear UCF is down a couple notches this season after their earlier loss to Tulsa as a big favorite, so that win by Memphis isn’t as good as they are getting credit for.  Temple beat a very good Memphis team last year 30-28 as a 4-point dog.  This game will be decided by 10 points or less.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 525 or more total yards in consecutive games.  Take Temple.

**2X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #6 NCAAF Capper in 2011 and the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2008 as well! He is on a 33-12 NCAAF Run overall while also being ranked as the #1 NCAAF Capper in 2020! He is also the #1 Ranked Overall Capper in 2020 and riding a HOT 271-187 All Sports Run since December 28th! He went 6-0 last Saturday that included a 5-0 day in college football! Hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 5-Pack for $49.95 and give your man the beating he deserves on the college gridiron once again this weekend! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Mountain West Game of the Month along with four 6* plays! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's NFL picks for FREE!

6* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *BAILOUT* on SMU -2.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 5-0 this season and a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference.  Sonny Dykes is doing great things here, and the Mustangs have the numbers to back up their 5-0 record.  They have an explosive offense that averages 42.6 PPG and 563.2 YPG and a solid defense that yields 25.4 PPG.  Cincinnati is 3-0 but against a much easier schedule than SMU has faced.  Their 3 wins all came at home over Austin Peay, Army and South Florida.  They only managed 396 YPG and gave up 306.7 YPG against those 3 poor teams.  Now they will be going on the road for the first time this year.  I don’t think they have the firepower offensively to match SMU in this one.  Bets on home favorites who outgain their opponents by 100 YPG or more against a good team outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG, after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  SMU was much more dominant than the final score against Tulane last week as they needed OT despite outgaining the Green Wave by 194 yards.  They remain underrated despite being 5-0.  Take SMU.

6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -11

The Key: Hugh Freeze is working his magic with this Liberty program.  The Flames are 4-0 this season and there has been nothing fraudulent about this start.  They just went on the road and beat Syracuse 38-21 handily as 3-point favorites to knock off a Power 5 team.  Their stats are so impressive.  They are gaining 484 YPG and giving up just 275 YPG on defense, outgaining foes by 209 YPG on the season.  Southern Miss has been hit hard by Covid-19.  They will now have their 3rd different head coach for Saturday.  They fired Jay Hopson after a season-opening loss to South Alabama.  Scotty Walden was named interim coach, but now he is out this week with Covid-19.  And that leaves Tim Billings will be in line to coach the team.  The Eagles are 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a terrible North Texas team.  They lost by 11 to South Alabama at home, by 1 to a bad LA Tech team that was missing several players due to Covid, and by 42 to a Tulane team that has shown they aren’t very good either.  Liberty will be the best team they have faced yet, and it’s really not even close.  They give up 40 PPG and 490.5 YPG on the season, so the Flames should be able to name their score and run away with this one.  Bets against any team that is outscored by 7 or more PPG, after 2 straight games where 70 or more points were scored are 50-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Oddsmakers haven’t caught on to how good this Flames team is just yet, so we’ll keep capitalizing.  Take Liberty.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Indiana +6.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers finished with a winning record in the Big Ten and overall for the first since since 1993 last year.  Head coach Tom Allen has this team on the rise and this is his best team yet as he enters his 4th season in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers return 17 starters and want revenge from narrow losses to Penn State each of the last 2 seasons. They lost 28-33 to Penn State as 14-point home dogs in 2018 and outgained the Nittany Lions 554 to 417 in that game.  Last year they lost 27-34 despite once again having the 462 to 371 yardage edge.  They really should have won both those games, and they have not forgotten.  Now they right another wrong in their opener and pull the upset here at home.  Take Indiana.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +7

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have shown me enough against a brutal schedule to know they can compete with Oklahoma.  They are 1-2, but they only lost by 3 to Iowa Stat and by 7 to Kansas State, who are both 3-0 in Big 12 play.  They also upset Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Oklahoma needed triple-OT to beat Texas and also lost by 7 to Iowa State.  Oklahoma also lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorite.  The Sooners are way overvalued early in the season, and based on those results, these are pretty even teams.  TCU actually has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan, who is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA this year.  And TCU certainly has the better defense in giving up 366.7 YPG compared to 40 PPG and 415 YPG for Oklahoma in conference play.  And the Sooners have a laundry list of injuries right now, while the Horned Frogs are very healthy.  Gary Patterson is 14-4 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.