Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Twins/Red Sox UNDER 8

It's going to be cold with temps in the 50's at Fenway Park Friday night.  We get two struggling, banged up lineups up against two impressive left-handers tonight.  Runs will be at a premium in this one.

Payton Tolle is 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in five starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed just 9 earned runs and 25 base runners in 30 2/3 innings with 30 K's.  He is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with Boston having a 2.98 ERA this season.

Connor Prielipp is 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in five starts for the Twins this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 24 base runners in 25 innings with 29 K's.  He faces an extremely banged up Boston lineup that has produced 4 runs or fewer in 12 of its last 13 games overall, and 3 runs or fewer in nine of its last 11 games.

The Twins are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with 5 or fewer combined runs in four of them.  The Red Sox are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall with 8 or fewer combined runs in 10 of those 11 games, and 7 runs or fewer in nine of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

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15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Marlins OVER 7.5

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 110-75 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons. They are scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game this season.  The Marlins are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine games.

The Mets are 7-2-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those games.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in six of those 10 games.  They are averaging 6.5 runs per game in those 10 games.

Tobias Myers will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Brewers as they make this a bullpen game.  He is 0-1 with a 3.41 ERA allowing 5 homers in 29 innings.

Eury Perez is 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 10 starts for the Marlins, allowing 31 earned runs and 10 homers in 52 1/3 innings.  Perez has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio ML -125

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  You have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season.

The Spurs have owned the Thunder this season going 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their seven meetings.  They won both meetings in San Antonio by 20 and 10 points.  After dominating throughout Game 1, the Spurs were within 5 points of the Thunder in the final minutes of Game 2 but lost by 9.  It was actually a very impressive effort that they didn't fold the tent after taking Game 1.

Now it will be the most raucous San Antonio crowd this season in a Friday night home game in the Western Conference Finals.  The Spurs have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, and the Thunder have really struggled on the road in the playoffs over the last two seasons.

The injury situation favors the Spurs.  The Spurs lost Dylan Harper last game, and De'Aaron Fox sat out the first two games with an ankle injury.  There's a good chance Fox was just kept out as a precaution in Game 2 after they stole Game 1, and he will return tonight.  I've also heard Harper's injury is minor and he could play tonight, too.

The injuries are more concerning for the Thunder.  Jalen Williams (17.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.2 APG) suffered yet another hamstring injury in Game 2 and was ruled out.  He will almost certainly be out again.  And one of their playoff heroes thus far has been Ajay Mitchell (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG), and got banged up in Game 2 as well.  The Thunder got 12 of their 13 3-pointers from their bench in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again in San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs on the Money Line Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Nationals/Braves OVER 9

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 32-16-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in eight of their last 10 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury last series.  Atlanta is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all five.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Miles Mikolas and this awful Washington bullpen that has a 4.99 ERA this season.  Mikolas is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 32 earned runs and 11 homers in 41 2/3 innings.

Bryce Elder has been much better this season than last season, but he is due some regression as these numbers with a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 10 starts are unsustainable for him.  Elder has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Washington.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in four meetings between the Braves and Nationals this season with 9 or more combined runs in all four, and 13 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.