Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+105)

The Texas Rangers are 33-19 this season with the best run differential (+123) in all of baseball.  No team has touched them in this department other than the Tampa Bay Rays (+120).  Third place is Atlanta (+62).

The Rangers have a big advantage on the mound today over the Detroit Tigers that should lead them to winning this game by multiple runs to cover the Run Line.  Nathan Eovaldi is 6-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in six road starts.  He has pitched 43 1/3 innings on the road without allowing a single homer.

Matt Boyd is 3-3 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Tigers, including 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.040 WHIP in four home starts.  Boyd is 1-6 with a 5.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Rangers.  Texas is hitting .290 and scoring 7.7 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Detroit is hitting .230 and scoring 3.8 runs per game in 2023.

The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Monday.

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20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/A's OVER 8.5

There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Oakland tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The Braves rank 5th in scoring at 5.26 runs per game this season and are capable of covering this total on their own against a A's team that ranks dead last in allowing 7.24 runs per game.

Mike Soroka will be making his first start since 2020 and will be on a pitch count, so the A's should get to him as well.  Paul Blackburn makes his first start of the season for the A's and has a 7.50 ERA in the minors this season.  That's how desperate they are to try and find starting pitching.  The A's have a 6.50 ERA as a bullpen and the Braves have a 4.04 ERA.

Oakland is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. teams that average 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Atlanta is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The OVER is 24-9-1 in Braves last 34 interleague games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rays/Cubs Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays rank 1st in average (.273) and 2nd in scoring (6.17 runs/game) this season.  The Cubs rank 12th in scoring (4.73 runs/game) this season.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon.

Both bullpens are taxed as the Rays just beat the Dodgers 11-10 on Sunday.  The Cubs went to their bullpen in the 5th inning against the Reds and lost 8-5.  The Rays have a 4.46 ERA as a bullpen and a 5.14 ERA on the road.  The Cubs have a 4.65 ERA as a bullpen.

Taj Bradley won't last long for the Rays as he has a 4.44 ERA on the season and averages 4.9 innings per start.  Marcus Stroman averages 5.8 innings per start.  He is 5-8 with a 5.04 ERA in 16 career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays over the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay is 10-1 OVER vs. good power teams averaging at least 1.25 homers per game this season.  The OVER is 9-0 in Rays last nine games following a win.  The OVER is 33-16-3 in Rays last 52 games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Cubs last seven interleague games.  The OVER is 10-1-1 in Cubs last 12 games following a loss.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Cubs last 21 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203.5

Death, taxes and Game 7 UNDERS.  They have been a cash cow in the NBA playoffs for decades.  It makes sense because with so much at stake, teams play tight and defensive intensity is at an all-time high.  That will be the case in this Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics.

We have seen the scoring really fall off a cliff in this series as it has gone on.  They went for 215 combined points in Game 4 which was a series low, 207 points in Game 5 which was a series low and then 207 points in Game 6 to tie the series low.  Expect Game 7 to stay UNDER 203.5 for a new series low here Monday night.

Boston is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine playoff games when facing elimination, which have all come over the past two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Monday.