Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Philadelphia Phillies -106

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games and 7 or more in four straight.

The Phillies have the advantage on the mound over the Reds today.  Ranger Suarez is one of the more underrated starters in baseball dating back to last season.  He is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs and 20 base runners in 26 innings with 27 K's.

Suarez is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.  He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts this season, and the Reds are 0-4 in his four starts.  Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Phillies last year in his lone career start against them.

The Phillies are 39-23 (+14.3 Units) in all Suarez starts over the last two seasons.  The Phillies are 11-2 (+10.5 Units) in Suarez's last 13 road starts in the first half of the season.  The Reds are 15-35 (-20.6 Units) in all Greene starts over the last three seasons, including 2-9 (-9.1 Units) in his last 11 home starts.  Bet the Phillies Monday.

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20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Blue Jays and Royals tonight.  There are expected to be 23 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Kauffman Stadium with temps approaching 70.  This should be a home run fest.

The Royals are scoring 5.9 runs per game at home this season.  The Blue Jays are finally getting their bats going scoring at least 3 runs in nine consecutive games coming in.  Both starting pitchers have been solid this season, but their numbers are about to get inflated tonight given the weather conditions working against them.

Kansas City is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games off a loss by 4 runs or more.  Brady Singer is 17-6 OVER in his last 23 starts as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Braves OVER 9.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Marlins and Braves tonight.  There are expected to be light winds blowing out to left-center in Atlanta tonight with temps in the 60's.

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .285 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  They should feast on Ryan Weathers, who is 7-16 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his career in the big leagues across 176 innings.

The Marlins have gotten their bats going of late scoring at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.  They should keep them going against Bryce Elder, who will be making his first start of the season for the Braves.  Elder posted an 8.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in spring training this season.

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 17 meetings.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 1 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Reds OVER 8.5

The forecast looks good for a slug fest tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.  Temps will be in the 60t's with very light winds blowing across the diamond from the right field foul pole to the left field foul pole.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games and 7 or more in four straight.

The Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game at home.  They should get to Ranger Suarez, who is getting too much respect for the great numbers he has posted against a very soft schedule of the Rockies, Pirates, Nationals and Braves.  Not surprisingly, his worst start came against the Braves.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Hunter Grenee, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts for the Reds this season.  Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Philadelphia last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.