Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Rays/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays are heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in four consecutive games and 4 runs or more in nine of their last 11 games with a low of 3 runs during this stretch.  The OVER is 8-0 in Blue Jays last eight games overall with 8 or more combined runs in nine consecutive games coming in.

The Blue Jays should stay hot at the plate today against Shane Baz, who has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in for a 13.00 ERA.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.

But the Rays should get their bats going against Jose Berrios, who is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has allowed 8 homers and 21 walks in 46 2/3 innings this season.  Berrios is 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Yankees -135

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 56 runs in their last six games for an average of 9.3 runs per game.  They are absolutely hitting the cover off the ball right now.

The Yankees should hang a big number on Bryan Woo, who allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings to the A's in his last start.  Woo allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees, which also came at home.

New York has a big advantage on the mound behind Max Fried, who has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  Fried is 6-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in eight starts for the Yankees, allowing just 6 earned runs in 51 2/3 innings.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake o San Francisco Giants -102

The San Francisco Giants have a big advantage on the mound over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.  They will be extra motivated after losing Game 1 of this series to the Diamondbacks by a final of 2-1, which was their 4th consecutive defeat after getting swept by the Twins last series.

Robbie Ray is 5-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight starts for the Giants this season with 46 K's in 44 1/3 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts coming in.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 16 base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Pfaadt allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-0 loss to the Giants in his last start against them.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Giants tonight.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight.  These teams combined for 17 hits yesterday but got nothing out of it in a 2-1 final.  That misleading result has provided us with some line value to back the OVER.

The Diamondbacks rank 5th in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game while the Giants rank 13th scoring 4.6 runs per game with a much improved offense this season.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 16 base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Pfaadt allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-0 loss to the Giants in his last start against them.

Robbie Ray has been solid for the Giants this season, but the Diamondbacks should get to him enough to cash this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Mariners OVER 7

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 56 runs in their last six games for an average of 9.3 runs per game.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.  But the Mariners are improved offensively this season scoring 4.9 runs per game which ranks 6th in baseball.

The Yankees should hang a big number on Bryan Woo, who allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings to the A's in his last start.  Woo allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees, which also came at home.

The Yankees are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 12 or more combined runs in five of those six games.  The Mariners are 17-3 OVER in their last 20 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 20 games, including 9 or more combined runs in 16 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Cubs OVER 8

The Chicago Cubs have one of the most improved offenses in baseball this season.  They rank 2nd in the majors scoring 5.7 runs per game trailing only the Yankees in that department.  The Marlins are scoring 4.2 runs per game but rank 29th in the majors allowing 6.0 runs per game.  These teams are a combined 48-30 OVER in all games this season.

The OVER is 19-9 in Marlins last 28 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 28 games.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Marlins and Cubs right now, especially facing these two sub-par starting pitchers.

Valente Bellozo is 0-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in four starts for the Marlins this season while averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  That means the Cubs will get into this Miami bullpen early.  Miami has the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.05 ERA this season.

Ben Brown is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs this season.  Brown has allowed 20 earned runs and 60 base runners in 36 1/3 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Dodgers are 11-4 in their last 15 games while scoring a total of 112 runs in those 15 games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.6 runs per game, the A's are scoring 4.4 runs per game which ranks in the top half of baseball.  The problem is the A's allow 5.3 runs per game this season.

Jeffrey Sprins is 4-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts for the A's this season.  He'll be opposed by Landon Knack, who is only getting the start due to injuries to Los Angeles' rotation.  Knack is 2-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three starts and one relief appearance this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his three starts.  

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -9.5

The Denver Nuggets are running on fumes.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and they haven't had consecutive days off since.  That hurts when they are the most starter-heavy team left in the playoffs putting a ton of minutes on their starters with Russell Westbrook the only reliable option off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and are the deepest team left in the playoffs.  They have plenty left in the tank here and the advantage goes to them as this series goes on.

The Thunder grinded out a 92-87 road win in Game 4 to even this series, which was big for this young team to overcome that hurdle of winning basically a must-win game on the road.  They did so despite shooting just 36% from the field and 10-of-41 (24%) from 3-point range.  They relied on their #1 defense to get it done.

Now the Thunder are back home where they blew a double-digit lead late in Game 1 before crushing the Nuggets 149-106 in Game 2.  I think we get something more similar to that Game 2 performance here.  Their role players will play better, and they will certainly get more production from Shai and Jalen Williams who went a combined 10-of-32 from the field in Game 4 on the road.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.