Jim Feist

Kentucky will cover the +10.5 on Saturday home against Alabama for several reasons, starting with location as the home crowd in Lexington to give the Wildcats a boost here. Kentucky played much better on offense during their opener compared to Alabama. Quarterback Kenny Minchey tossed four touchdowns and didn’t throw an interception while totaling 301 yards through the air. That should allow Kentucky to move the ball and keep Alabama’s defense from loading up against the run.

Then there is the matter of Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell starting his first SEC road game. Kentucky will have a lot of noise behind it and Russell was just 18-Of-30 passing last week. If Kentucky can pressure him while disguising coverages and getting Alabama into longer third downs they can keep this one within reach. Ideally, keep the Tide offense off the field as much as possible.

Alabama also has some depth concerns along the offensive line and at receiver. Starting offensive lineman Michael Carroll is doubtful while receiver Noah Rogers is out. Kentucky appears to be healthy at several key positions, which could allow them to win at the line of scrimmage and limit Alabama’s running game.

By laying more than a touchdown and a field goal at Kentucky, you’re getting a home underdog that can score points and should have enough offense to hang around. Alabama has the superior roster overall and would still be my pick to win outright, but this lines up more like a competitive SEC road game than an outright blowout.

Jim’s Play: 358. Kentucky

Boise State has a good case to win and cover against Memphis on Saturday, particularly if you can get the Broncos around -8 to -8.5. The market is generally sitting between Boise State -8 and -9.5, so the exact number matters. 

The biggest reason to like Boise State is what the Broncos showed in their opener at Oregon. Boise went into Autzen Stadium against the No. 2 Ducks and stayed in the game until the end, losing just 34-27. Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw three touchdown passes without an interception, and Boise showed it can execute offensively against a much more talented defense than the one it will see from Memphis. 

Memphis comes in 2-0 and has an excellent pass rush, but its secondary has been more vulnerable. That gives Boise a chance to create explosive plays if the offensive line can keep Madsen clean. Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes has also been prone to mistakes, and this will be his toughest defensive environment of the season. If Boise can stop Memphis from generating big plays on the ground and force Stokes into obvious passing situations, the Broncos should have opportunities to create turnovers and short fields. 

The location is another important advantage. Memphis now has to travel to Albertsons Stadium, where Boise has traditionally been much more difficult to handle. The travel and elevation also slightly favor the Broncos.  After going toe-to-toe with Oregon on the road, this is a major drop in opponent strength while Boise also gets the benefit of playing at home.

I expect Boise State to control the game more as it progresses, with Madsen attacking a Memphis secondary that can be beaten and the Broncos defense forcing Memphis into a couple of critical mistakes.

Jim’s Play: 366. Boise State

I like Georgia Tech +12.5 against Tennessee on Saturday. Tennessee certainly looked like a team that could score at will against Furman, putting up 56 points in their opener. However, this will be Tennessee’s first game away from home, and it’s against a Georgia Tech defense that showed some promise against Colorado in their opener.

Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS at home against ranked opponents under Brent Key, which has me liking nearly two touchdowns here.

Georgia Tech’s defense kept Colorado to just 14 points and 307 yards in Week 1. The Jackets lost 14-13, but it wasn’t like Colorado was lighting up Georgia Tech all game long. Their defense is the reason I think this game will stay close.

Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza had a nice opener, throwing for 237 yards against Colorado and several big plays. If Justice Haynes can step up and Georgia Tech’s run game can have success, this offense can move the ball against Tennessee.

I have multiple projection models that make this game considerably closer than what the line is indicating, including one that projects Tennessee by only three and another that comes out to Tennessee -8.7. I’ll take the double digits here on Saturday and look for a much closer game than expected. 

Jim’s Play: 378. Georgia Tech  (Game of the week)

I really like Air Force’s chances to pull the outright upset Saturday at home against North Dakota State, even though the Falcons are currently getting bet down.

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Air Force makes opponents play a certain style of football. The Falcons dominated Duquesne in Week 1, winning 34-0 while rushing for 431 yards on 75 attempts. Air Force had a time of possession of 40:50, ran 35 more plays than Duquesne and never let the Dukes get into any kind of rhythm. Rocco Conti exploded for 74 yards on the ground, but quarterback Liam Szarka is a running threat as well.

North Dakota State’s defense has been phenomenal through two games, so Saturday certainly will be a step up in competition for Air Force. The Bison jumped out to a 2-0 start by posting a 33-7 win at Jacksonville State and then crushing Fordham 38-0 in Week 2. They’ve allowed only 3.5 points and 52 rushing yards per game. But the Air Force option is wildly different than Jacksonville State’s and Fordham’s power and spread games. Every defender must have a responsibility on every play with the dive, quarterback and pitch responsibilities. It only takes one player getting a step slow to turn into a play for 20 or 30 yards.

North Dakota State played at home in Fargo for its first two games, so the Bison are traveling to Colorado for its first road game as an FBS school. The Bison also have to go on the road to Falcon Stadium, which is never easy as Air Force is 82-32 under Troy Calhoun.

Air Force’s defense could play a big role in the game as well. The Falcons stifled Duquesne in Week 1, allowing only 107 yards of total offense, eight first downs and zero points. They also intercepted two Jake Verkoski passes. North Dakota State likes to establish the run and keep its quarterbacks out of bad spots. If Air Force can win the battle on first down and force Nathan Hayes into obvious passing situations, the Falcons could keep NDSU away from the balanced offense it used to dominate its first two opponents.

This game has all the makings of a low-possession contest, which is what you want when rooting for the home underdog. Air Force can easily run six or seven minutes off the clock on one possession. If the Falcons take care of the football and tack on touchdowns instead of field goals at the end of those drives, North Dakota State might not get enough possessions to pull away.

Look for  Air Force to control the football with their option attack, exploit the home field atmosphere and put NDSU in a position where they must play from behind on the road for the first time. Air Force is also a play on the spread for me, but I can definitely see Air Force winning this game outright.

Jim’s Play: 402. Air Force

To start, I like North Texas to win outright here. This team is a very live home dog in my opinion. Right now, the market has UNLV as roughly 3.5 point favorites. However, this line has already come down from an opening around 6.5, making this game much closer to a toss-up than it was initially.

North Texas’ final score in their 52-16 loss to Indiana last weekend was extremely deceiving. They actually outgained the defending national champions 367-365 and held the ball for just over 37 minutes. The Mean Green were within 31-16 late in the third quarter before Indiana outscored them 21-0 in the fourth. North Texas has definitely shown that they can put up points against elite competition, as they proved they can move the football against one of the best defenses in the country.

On top of that, North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson is a serious reason why I like them in this spot. He went 22-of-28 for 192 yards and completed 79% of his passes in his debut as the starter for North Texas. Running back Jahiem White added another 97 yards from scrimmage and gives new North Texas coach Neal Brown the type of dual-threat back he loves to utilize in both the run and pass game. That North Texas offense should have an easier time this week against UNLV than what it did against Indiana.

UNLV gets some props for knocking off Hawaii 21-6, but their offense was far from impressive. They only had 116 yards through the air, managed just 18 first downs, and had to rely on 248 yards on the ground to secure the victory. If North Texas is able to contain quarterback Jackson Arnold and not allow any big runs, the Rebels could struggle mightily to keep up if this game reaches the upper 20s.

Lastly, there’s always a slight advantage to the home team in week two. North Texas’ game in Indiana was essentially their home opener with fans back in Denton. UNLV, on the other hand, just came back from a road game in Hawaii and will have to travel to Texas to play North Texas. Expect the Mean Green to come out with a lot of fight after playing their hearts out in Week 1.

All things considered, I view this game as much closer than what the Week 1 final score may indicate for North Texas. They showed they could generate offense and keep drives alive, they have the clear advantage through the air in this matchup and they get to welcome UNLV back to the warm weather after a road trip of their own.

Jim’s Play: 362. North Texas