Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Sky -5½

Chicago has a massive physical edge in the paint that Portland is not ready to handle.

The Sky frontcourt duo of Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese is elite on the offensive glass.

Portland is still trying to find its identity as an expansion franchise early in the season.

The Fire showed major gaps in their interior defense during their opening week games.

They now face a Chicago unit that lives in the paint and hunts for second-chance points.

The Sky finished last year with a top-tier defensive rating and that physical style travels well.

Portland’s young backcourt will struggle with the intense ball pressure Chicago brings for 40 minutes.

We should see a significant gap in points in the paint and free throw attempts in this matchup.

Chicago is a disciplined group that knows how to execute and take care of business on the road.

Expansion teams almost always struggle with high turnover rates and missed defensive rotations early on.

The Sky will exploit those mistakes and turn them into easy transition buckets all night long.

Portland simply does not have the size or the depth to keep Chicago's bigs off the boards.

The Sky's eFG% should be high because they will get so many high-percentage looks at the rim.

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and they match up perfectly here.

Expect the Sky to dominate the glass and wear down the Fire by the start of the fourth quarter.

This line is too short for a team with Chicago's veteran presence and massive size advantage.

I like the Sky -5.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Tigers/Royals: over 9

The Tigers and Royals are set to trade blows in a high-scoring environment tonight at Kauffman Stadium.
Temperatures are climbing in Kansas City and the ball is starting to carry much better than it did in April.

Detroit’s pitching staff is hitting a wall after a heavy workload over the last week.
The Tigers’ bullpen has logged more innings than almost any other unit in the league this month.

That fatigue is showing up in the late innings where they are hanging breaking balls and missing spots.
Kansas City’s offense matches up perfectly against right-handed pitching, which they face again today.

The Royals are currently top-five in the American League in home runs and extra-base hits since the start of May.
They have been elite at capitalizing on mistakes and turning walks into runs.

On the other side, the Royals' starters have been struggling with their command.
They are walking too many batters and putting themselves in high-stress situations early in games.

Detroit’s young hitters have been patient at the plate and are punishing mistake pitches.
The over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two clubs in Kansas City.

Kauffman Stadium’s massive gaps will lead to plenty of triples and doubles tonight.
With the wind blowing out toward the outfield fountains, any fly ball has a chance to leave the yard.

Expect both bullpens to be exposed by the sixth inning.
The bats are far ahead of the arms in this divisional matchup.

Both teams have seen their pitching ERA balloon over 5.00 during the current series.
This line is too low for two struggling pitching staffs and two hot lineups.

I like the Over 9 (-115)

1* Free Pick on Cavs -4½

Cleveland is in a massive hole down 0-2 and heads home for a true "do or die" Game 3 against the Pistons.

No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit so expect maximum urgency from the Cavs right from the jump.

Returning to Rocket Arena is the exact reset this veteran core needs after two disappointing losses in Detroit.

The Pistons are riding an impressive five-game playoff winning streak but this is their first real road test of the series.

Young teams often see their shooting percentages dip and their turnover rates climb when the atmosphere shifts to a hostile playoff environment.

Detroit will also be without sharpshooter Kevin Huerter who remains out with an adductor strain.

His absence shrinks the floor and allows Cleveland’s defense to pack the paint and focus more attention on Cade Cunningham.

Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are playing through some bumps and bruises but both stars are confirmed in the starting lineup.

Harden struggled with his shot and ball control in Detroit but he usually finds his rhythm once he gets the home whistles and the comfort of his own court.

The market is showing respect to the home team here by making them a 4.5-point favorite despite being down in the series.

That line tells you the oddsmakers expect a massive response from a Cleveland squad that has been far better at home all season.

Cleveland’s length with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley should finally start to wear down the Pistons’ interior scoring.

Desperation is a powerful motivator in the postseason and the Cavs have the veteran leadership to avoid the sweep.

Expect a much more physical defensive effort from Cleveland as they look to bully the younger Pistons on the glass.

I like the Cavs -4.5 (-105).

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5* NO BRAINER on Lakers +9

The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Thunder after two blowout wins to start this series.

Getting nine points with a LeBron James-led team in a must-win home game is a massive gift for bettors.

The Lakers are back at Crypto.com Arena down 0-2 and playing for their season tonight.

Historically, home teams in this exact position show a level of desperation that keeps games much tighter than the spread suggests.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 in these playoffs, but their young core is about to face its first real test of true road adversity.

The Thunder are still missing Jalen Williams, which strips away their most versatile wing defender and second-best playmaker.

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an elite level, the Lakers have the length to force him into a high-volume, low-efficiency night.

Deandre Ayton gives the Lakers a significant size advantage on the glass against Chet Holmgren.

Los Angeles ranks near the top of the league in defensive rebounding percentage at home, and they will limit OKC's second-chance looks.

The absence of Luka Doncic is fully priced into this line, but the market is ignoring the Lakers' ability to slow the pace and grind out a half-court game.

Expect the Lakers to get to the free-throw line early and often to stop any transition momentum the Thunder try to build.

Young teams often see their shooting percentages dip in hostile environments, and the Thunder rely heavily on the three-ball to fuel their runs.

This game should be a possession-by-possession dogfight that stays within two buckets until the final whistle.

I like the Lakers +9.