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|Nuggets vs Lakers||Nuggets +5 -103||Top Premium||107-117||Loss||-103||Show|
|Florida State vs Miami-FL||Florida State +11 -110||Top Premium||10-52||Loss||-110||Show|
|Texas vs Texas Tech||Texas -17½ -105||Top Premium||63-56||Loss||-105||Show|
|Army vs Cincinnati||Cincinnati -12 -104||Top Premium||10-24||Win||100||Show|
|Kentucky vs Auburn||Auburn -6½ -110||Top Premium||13-29||Win||100||Show|
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Detroit vs Arizona
4:25 PM EST, September 27, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet on the Detroit Lions
This betting system is incredible and has produced a 25-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. So, it is a very rare one, but when this system is activated, it is for very strong reasons. The system requires us to bet on road dogs that are facing a host that allowed 24 or more points on defense last season and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.
The machine learning tools project that the Lions will score 24 or more points and average a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play. In past games when they met or exceeded these measures as an underdog they have gone to a solid 27-12 ATS record for 69% winning bets.Take the Detroit Lions as a 7-Star Best Bet.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Upset Alert on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points
The Philadelphia Eagles season is on the line having lost their first two games in horrific fashion when they host another 0-2 team in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles roster has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball and many new names will now be starters and expected to contribute significantly to this matchup.In each of the last two seasons the Eagles have had poor starts and then had to get out the magic wand to make the playoffs since their 2017 Super Bowl Championship season. HC Pederson is annoyed with the Philadelphia press and has answered some questions in a “Belichick” short-tempered fashion. Earlier this week he stated at a press conference that "Those guys in that locker room are mad…. they are upset that we are 0-2 and in this position. But nobody's going to feel sorry for the Philadelphia Eagles or feel sorry for me. I'm going to come here every day and take your questions. You may not like the answers, but I don't care, quite frankly, and what I care about is our team, right, and getting our team prepared to play the Bengals this Sunday."
Those statements do not address the monumental problem the Eagles must solve with so many holes in the dam. Starting with the offensive line, LG Seumalo will miss several weeks with a knee injury. Pro Bowl RG Pederson is out for the year after tearing his achilleas in preseason drills. The Eagles are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball. The run defense is awful, too many drives stall and end up not scoring, no discipline defending play action pass plays. The Rams, who defeated the Eagles last week, led the NFL with the most play action pass plays run in 2019. So, for the Eagle defense to not be prepared for that scheme is bizarre indeed.This NFL betting system has earned a solid 109-68 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last 30 seasons, 12-6 ATS over the last three season, and 19-8 ATS over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they allowed 30 or more points in their previous game and is facing an opponent that is coming off a double-digit loss.
So, we know the Bengals are road underdogs of 6-points and lost 35-30 on the road at the Cleveland Browns, but managed to get an against-the-spread (ATS) win as 6-point dogs. The Eagles were throttled 37-19 by the Rams and never led in the game.
Having massive databases at my fingertips is a luxury when working on matchup and situational analyses. So, I bet you wanted to know how 0-2 SU and ATS teams that were favored in both games in Week 1 and 2 have done in Week 3. Ewell, these slow starters are 9-7 SU for 56% wins and 9-6-1 ATS for 60% winning bets since 1990. If the team lost at home in Week 2 are 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS for 69% winners if playing at home in Week 3. Lastly, if these 0-2 SU and ATS teams were a playoff team from the previous season they are 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets.
For his career Wentz is 32-27 SU, 28-31 ATS, and the ‘Over’ is 29-28 with two pushes. In last week’s loss to the Rams Wentz had no touchdown passes and marked the 8th time in his career that he recorded zero TD passes. That horrific performance level accounts for 14% of the 59 games he has played and must improve if he is to keep his starting QB job at the NFL level.
The good news, though, is that Wentz has thrown a single TD pass in five of the seven games following a game getting shutout from the scoring endzone. In 2016 in a home game against the Falcons he had a second consecutive game with zero TD passes and only once in a road game at Seattle in 2016 did he throw more than 1 TD pass getting two of them in that game. In not one of those 7 games did he have more TD passes than interceptions. Not Once!Take the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert
Raiders vs Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Las Vegas Raiders
It has been 19 years since Jon Gruden was head coach of the Raiders and lost 16-13 in a highly scrutinized playoff game in Foxborough. Late in the fourth quarter it appeared that Tom Brady, who at the time few people knew his name, had fumbled the ball. Upon further review the official reversed the decision and scored it as an incomplete pass under the obscure “luck rule”. For Jon Gruden that single play has never faded in his memory since his Raiders had control of the game and were winning.Are the Raiders Contenders?
The Raiders have the personnel on both sides of the ball to be contenders for a playoff berth. They are coming off a home win installed as an underdog against a perennial playoff team in the New Orleans Saints. However, the Raiders are a money-burning 3-16 against-the-spread following a home win as an underdog since 2010. This trend by itself is not very meaningful if the present Raiders are a winning record team. That trend evolved over a period of losing seasons. So, always be careful when looking at specific team trends.
The good news is that the Raiders are a solid 19-8 ATS for 70% winning bets coming off a dominating win that featured 34 or more minutes in time-of-possession and 24 or more first downs. Further, head coach Jon Gruden is an outstanding 22-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points in all games he has coached.
In 2019, the Raiders scored 85 points in the first quarter and 110 points in the second for a total of 195 first-half points. Then the second half became a challenge and in some games a disaster scoring just 27 points in the third and 76 in the fourth for a total of 103 second-half points. Their second-half output was less than what they scored in the second quarter alone last season. So far in 2020, the scoring is vastly improved averaging 34 points-per-game and have scored 34 points in each half.Raider 2019 Passing vs 2020 Passing
The 2019 season saw far too many check down passes by QB Derek Carr. There were 156 short right, 140 short middle, and 120 short left pass attempts for a combined total of 416 pass attempts. Carr attempted 513 passes and completed 361 for a 64% completing percentage. However, only 19% of his passes thrown were beyond 20 yards and that allowed defenses to bring safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and blitz Carr.
In 2020, the Raiders have not looked for the deep ball and have an offensive scheme designed to minimize mistakes and move the chains in a physical style of play. This will open more play action pass plays because the Raiders ground attack must be respected by opposing defensive units.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Tell Us?
The machine learning models project that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points. The Raiders when on the road are 36-44 straight-up (SU) and 55-23-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 70.5% winning bets since 1990 and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2016 when both teams score 20 or more points.Take the Raiders plus the points as a Best Bet