Handicapper Alex Smart's Sports Picks & Predictions

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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Basketball Totals (+11360) 1638-1389 L3027 54%

NBA Picks (+9068) 2202-1938 L4140 53%

NCAA-B Totals (+3668) 528-446 L974 54%

NHL Money Lines (+3561) 160-114 L274 58%

All Sports Totals (+2244) 976-864 L1840 53%

MLB Money Lines (+2006) 1215-1141 L2356 52%

NCAA-F Totals (+855) 171-148 L319 54%

NFLX Sides (+716) 18-10 L28 64%

Soccer Picks (+439) 21-14 L35 60%

Fighting Picks (+276) 8-7 L15 53%

NFL Sides (+267) 7-4 L11 64%

Football Sides (+240) 10-7 L17 59%

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Diamondbacks vs Pirates	Diamondbacks +123	Premium	3-0	Win	123	Show
Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline is the play that actually makes sense on Wednesday’s card, and I’ve been staring at this one long enough to feel pretty good about it. Eduardo Rodriguez walks in at 9-3 with a 2.64 ERA over 122.2 innings. That’s not some small-sample mirage. He’s been limiting hard contact, keeping the ball in the yard better than most lefties manage, and missing enough bats to make the win total look earned. Jared Jones lines up for Pittsburgh at 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in fewer innings. He’s been better of late, posting a tidy 1.02 WHIP and punching out hitters at a solid clip in July, but the overall body of work still trails Rodriguez by a full run in ERA and a noticeable margin in reliability. Both clubs sit at 55-52. Dead even. That alone strips away half the noise that usually inflates or tanks a price. When two teams with identical records meet and the road starter owns a clear edge in run prevention, underdog moneylines in those spots have treated patient bettors pretty well over the last few seasons. Arizona is still sitting in plus-money territory that feels soft once you actually weigh the arms. Rodriguez has held teams to two earned runs or fewer in the bulk of his starts since early June. That kind of consistency matters more than any single flashy outing. Jones has shown improvement, no question, but he’s still working with a smaller sample and a higher seasonal ERA. Stack the innings pitched, the strikeout rates, and the ability to keep runs off the board, and the gap is obvious. Arizona’s road offense hasn’t been world-beating, but it has been competent enough that three or four runs behind a guy throwing like this is often plenty. Pittsburgh’s home park helps a little, sure. It does not erase a nearly full-run ERA difference. And neither team is in pure desperation mode in late July, so the bullpens are less likely to get overworked or hyper-managed. That leaves more of the game in the starters’ hands, which is exactly where you want it when your guy is the better one. Most of Wednesday’s slate is either loaded with elite arms that force you into heavy favorites or mismatched teams that create the kind of dogs that look tempting until you dig in. This one sits in the rare middle. The price still has some air in it, the records are even, and the starter edge is real. Watching a 3.72 ERA pitcher try to outduel a 2.64 ERA lefty who already has nine wins feels a little like bringing a water pistol to a bar fight. You can do it, but the odds aren’t great. I’ve taken worse prices on thinner edges. This one just feels cleaner. Take the Diamondbacks moneyline and let Rodriguez do what he’s been doing all year.

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