Alex Smart

Mets will be aggressive here offensively as they need a win to not be be eliminated from post season play. 

Nats starter Sánchez allowed five runs and exited after 2 2/3 innings against the Mets on Aug. 12 and according to my power rankings does not matchup well vs here vs the Mets batting order.

The Mets are 8-0 OVER L/8 when Jacob deGrom starts after he had a WHIP of less than 1 in his last start.

Play OVER 

The Stars gave it everything they had in game 4 of this series and still lost in OT. Its been obvious since game 2 of this series who the far superior side is , and now Im betting the Bolts put this series to sleep and claim the Stanley Cup they deserve here tongiht.Lightning are 41-11 in their last 52 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation.

Play on TB Lightning to win 

The undefeated No. 14 Bearcats host the 22nd-ranked Black Knights on Saturday. Cincinnati has lost 15 of its last 16 games against ranked teams and today Im betting if they get a win, it wont come so easily. 

ARMY is 5-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1992.

CFB  road team vs. the money line (ARMY) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 20-7 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Cubs starter Jon Lester(LHP)---3-2, 4.40 ERA, 39 SO-- spun six shutout innings in a win over the Pirates on Monday. The veteran lefty struck out one and walked one. He has turned in a 1.06 ERA in 17 innings in his last three turns for Chicago. Meanwhile, Pale Hose Dane Dunning(RHP)---2-0, 3.19 ERA, 33 SO goes for the  White Sox who are 5-1 in games started by Dunning this season, although the right-hander finished with a no-decision in a loss at Cleveland on Monday. He has struck out 33 and walked 10 over 31 innings and is in top form. Today Im betting on these two starters to go long and strong and to get enough bullpen support to keep this combined score on the low side of the total here on the Southside today. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 16-5-1 in Cubs last 22 overall.

 Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 7-1-1 in White Sox last 9 games as a favorite.Under is 10-4-1 in White Sox last 15 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 9-4 in White Sox last 13 interleague home games.

Play on the UNDER

There is blood in the water and the Lakers are the  proverbial sharks . The Lakers very much respect this hard nosed never say die Denver team, and they know they need to step up here and finish them off. Im betting we see the core of this LAL side at their very best and for exhaustion to finally hamper the Nuggets as this will be their 19th play off game this season. Note: Reports on Anthony Davis ankle seem to be positive at this point and he is expected to be good to go. 

DENVER is 4-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are 39-3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8 ppg which qualifies under a spread situation as well. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Liberty has just 9 returning starters and lost their  leading rusher from last season , as well as their quarterback and top receiver in addition to its 3 top tacklers on D. I know Florida International also lost some experience from last season, but their defense now bolstered by the return of  of twin Dames brothers make them a tough group to move the ball against. In my opinion we have value with the underdog to cover. 

CFB road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 32-8 ATS L/28 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Florida Int to cover 

Gamecocks are just  2-9 ATS   in the last eleven series meetings at home, and Im betting against them here today, as Tennessee according to my numbers should be closer to -6 favs. Yes even here on the road. Note: The Vols won their final 6 games of last season, and 17 starters back look like a viable bet vs a downtrending S.Carolina side that is 3-12 SU L/15 as a home dog. 

TENNESSEE is 18-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB team (S CAROLINA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Duke brought in Trevor Lawrences backup from Clemson (Chase Brice) in the offseason, and the offense has sputtered accumulating just  19 points and two ugly losses. The duke D, ha also been horrendous allowing 825 yards in the two defeats, and Im betting things wont get much better today vs Virginia.  

The Cavaliers have owned this series of late winning 5 straight SU/ATS and considering Dukes 1-7 SU record in their L/8 ACC battles, it wont be a hard decision to bet against them here this Saturday. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

Auburn has owned this overall series but have not played each other  since 2015 . Dating back to  2009 these teams have played 3 times.  Kentucky's last victory in this series in 2009 ended  a 15-game winning streak in the series for the Tigers. Both games played since that game were decided by a field goal and Im betting on another close affair here. I know Auburn is a top tier SEC team, but Bob Stoops group is ascending quickly and after looking at their recruiting class could be on the verge of something big. 

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Play on Kentucky to cover

Georgia Tech as road favs did not sit well with me  knowing the school is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine away  trips when favored.  GTech is up-trending but laying wood with them on the road is not a recipe for success this early in their development. I know Syracuse is a side that no one loves these days, but now in desperation mode Dino Babers Orange Im betting come out here and leave everything on the field and get us the cover. 

Syracuse has covered 3 of their L/4 at home as 7 or more point dogs. 

CFB team (GEORGIA TECH) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 10+ PPG, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 4-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

BYU started fast this season against a Navy team that was not prepared to play. The final 55-3 score was indicative of a side with more practice vs one that did not even take part in full contact drills. So Im not going to take alot from the Mormons game 1 win and crown them a top tier side just yet. Now after more than two weeks rest, BYU may also exhibit some rust, vs a well coached Troy team. Note: BYU is just 2-9 ATS L/11 with rest. It must be noted that Troys HC was the offensive coordinator  at Auburn and   a former quarterback coach at Troy and knows how to push a offense into warp speed.

BYU is 23-41 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

The Trojans, are 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-conference win which was the case in the DD victory vs Midd Tenn State last time out. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Pittsburgh is 2-0 so far with wins vs Austin Peay and Syracuse. Meanwhile, Louisville was beaten by Miami Fl,last time out  but proved that they can score and are more than capable of hanging with the Panthers here today. Note: Pittsburgh as home favs , are less than a consistent bet as they sport a lowly  8-15-1 ATS L/24 record. Also Cardinal HC  Scott Satterfield is 17-4 SU when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS when off a double-digit ATS loss.

Play on the Louisville Cards to cover 

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