Alex Smart

Washington St has won 2 straight conference tilts the last time as an underdog which sets up well for a win here vs a inconsistent Stanford allowing 60 more yards than they gain and that has lost 2 of their L/3 games. 
WASHINGTON ST is 13-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog.  WASHINGTON ST is 15-1 ATS   off an upset win as a home underdog 

Washington State has won the last four meetings in this series  including 3 as underdogs. 

WASHINGTON ST is 22-9 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75  or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (STANFORD) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 21-50 for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington St to cover 

Winnipeg struggled in their first game out against Anaheim, but this is a solid team and a bounce back effort is a high probability according to my projections . Meanwhile, San Jose is in full rebuild mode and are fade material against teams like this at least in the immediate future. 

WINNIPEG is 20-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. 

SAN JOSE is 0-7 ATS  in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.Sharks are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. Central.

Play on the Winnipeg Jets to win 

The Stars took a 3-2 win vs the Rangers in the first game of the season, and continued to show a disciplined defensive style of play that attacks usually only out of transition. With my projections expecting a lower scoring affair because of the Bruins  expected style of play and under wager here is a viable money making opportunity for under bettors. 

Under is 6-1-1 in Bruins last 8 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Under is 12-4-5 in Stars last 21 games as a road underdog.

DALLAS is 22-9 UNDER on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Blackhawks lost 4-3 in OT last night, but the Blackhawks have proved themselves to resilient after an extended time loss going  37-14 in their last 51 games following OT on the previous day. The Penguins are off a loss to the Florida Panthers and did not look as cohesive in game 2 of their season as they did in game 1 vs the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay. 

Blackhawks are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Blackhawks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh. 

Play on the Chicago Blackhawks to win 

The Islanders looked asleep at the wheel in game 1 of their season on Thursday losing to the Carolina Canes by a 6-3 count. That was not their usual way of doing things, especially from a defensive standpoint. Here today Im betting on the team bouncing back vs a Panthers side that they have dominated in recent meetings winning 7 of the 8 confrontations. 

Islanders are 5-1 in their last 6 Saturday games.Islanders are 9-4 in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. 

Panthers are 4-9 in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.

Panthers are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. Metropolitan.

Play on the NY Islanders to win 

Im betting on Wyoming pounding away on the ground and for the home town crowd and thin air of Larime to make life difficult for visiting Fresno this Saturday. 

Bohl is 18-9 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of WYOMING

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 28-62 ATS L/5 seasons for 29 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

The rested  Braves will go against a Dodgers team off an a hard fought emotional victory vs the SF giants in game of their play off series. Now the Dodgers are  in a classic emotional letdown situation after using a big portion of their pitching staff in that game ,  and now Im betting they are at a disadvantage in game 1 of this series vs the Braves

The Braves will go with Fried  who is 1-0 this postseason, pitching six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the Brewers on Oct. 9. FRIED is 18-3 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 32-10  against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League West.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 33-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

 IOWA is 15-3 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.8 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PURDUE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 24-2 with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Iowa State plays a  grinding type of football and in 3 diff games allowed 10-7-3 points. the last two meetings in this series have stayed under the total. rinse and repeat. 

IOWA ST is 6-0 UNDER  off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. 

IOWA ST is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in road games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return with a combined average of 41.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

CFB  team against the total (KANSAS ST) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-2 UNDER  for a 93% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored. 

CFBeam against the total (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 48.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Gophers  are. being under rated and if they had not taken a week off vs Bowling Green would be 4-1 right now instead of 3-2.  The Gophers have owned  Nebraska  in the last two here at home  spanking the Huskers  34-7 and 54-21 and today Im betting they get the job done again in the underdog role. 

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

Fleck is 35-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached . 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

 Michigan  State is having a great season so far. But their record is based on beating . sub .500 teams so I wont get to carried away with singing their praises.  Indiana head coach Tom Allen is officially on the hot seat and QB Michael Penix, Jr., needs to stand up and show some moxxy and get  some how get some redemption for an ugly start vs a over rated team with a D that allows 420 plus ypg .” Indiana is well rested and if there was ever a time they make a run its today here and now . Indiana is 4-0 ATS L/4 after a bye week. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Wow. Big win for Iowa last week, as they came back to win 23-20 after knocking the Penn State Lions starting QB out of the game. This is a huge letdown spot for Iowa and a competitive  Purdue team   will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Iowa HC Ferentz  as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated side , is 0-4-1 ATS  L/5 at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS vs an above .500 opponent like Purdue .

Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Boilermakers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Iowa.

Play on Purdue Boilermakers to cover 

 Tennessee is starting fast this season and  have outscored their opposition by a  101-13 count  in the first quarter , including scoring s on 11 straight drives over the past two  tilts in the first half of the game. Im betting on another fast start vs a suspect Ole Miss D, and a subsequent underdog cover. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is off a back forth 52-51 win vs Arkansas last week, and will now be in a huge emotional letdown spot. 

OLE MISS is 4-13 ATS   after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Tennessee is 13-2 L/15 meetings in this series.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OLE MISS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 7-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

CFB home team (TENNESSEE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Mississippi State is off a bye week and well prepared to take on the Tide. I know there is a perception that Saban and company will be pissed after getting upset last time out and be ready to breath fire, but Im betting it wont be that easy. Note:  Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS with the Tide  during the regular season in his career when coming off his first loss of the campaign  and going against an above .500 side like Mississippi State. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a win against a conference rival, after the first month of the season are 44-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

With Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson back in the lineup,Im betting the wildcats get their mojo back and really give Iowa State all they can handle here at home. This is also a big revenge tilt for the Wildcats who were crushed last season by Iowa State by a 45-0 count. Note: KANSAS ST is 4-0 ATS as a home dog with revenge. 

KANSAS ST is 26-12 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) . KANSAS ST is 22-7 ATS  after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Note:  ISU QB Brock Purdy only has 5 TDs so far this season, and its obvious his WRs and him are not on the same page. Thats not a good look going against a D with hate in their eyes. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 73-33 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

KANSAS ST is 13-1 straight up against IOWA ST since 1992 at home. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 

. The Oklahoma Sooners  have made any successes they have had torturous for their fan base and  no victories  vs FBS teams by more than  7 points. This week . Sooners QB Caleb Williams may start again after entering their game last week and rallying his team to a OT victory vs Texas. That was a hugely emotional game for the Sooners and now they may find it difficult to get up for this one, making them vulnerable to cover this matchup. 

OKLAHOMA is 8-22 ATS L/30 vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. Riley is 0-6 ATS  after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of OKLAHOMA.

Patterson is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of TCU.  

CFB  road team (TCU) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 48-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Despite of starting their season at 0-5 the  UNLV Rebels  have been competitive of late as was evident in their L/2 road games against Fresno State losing by a 38-30 count and a 24-17 defeat to UTSA. Now here in their home opener vs. Utah State Im betting UNLV has the weapons to cover here vs a Aggies side that can score in bunches, but can also allow a boatload full of points. 

Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Play on UNLV to cover

 The Miners are playing some very good football as is evident by their 5-1 record  and ranked  in the nation’s Top 20 in both Total Defense and Tackles for Loss.  Recently they have had the advantage from a ATS perspective vs the 2-3 Bulldogs cashing 4 of the L/6 meetings and today Im betting they grab the cheese again. Note: HC Skip Holtz has failed to cover 16 of 26 road games as single digit chalk in his career. So from that data  this is not a role his teams excel in. 

UTEP is 16-5 ATS L/1 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - off a road loss against opponent off a double digit road win are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UTEP to cover 

The Golden Flashes have to be respected in their current form as this sit at the top of the  MAC East Division . They have taken on big 12   Texas A&M and  a couple of Big Ten sides ie  (Iowa and Maryland), and are battle tested .   Last week they smashed a pretty good  Buffalo program  accumulating a whopping  633 yards of offence and are capable of really making  a strong Western Michigan ise feel the heat here this week. Im betting  KSU QB Dustin Crum  be the difference maker with his arm and legs.

Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Golden Flashes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Golden Flashes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games.

Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Play on Kent State to cover