Alex Smart

This totals projection to the over is based on head to head matchup stats as compared to current defensive postures and the systems and form being implemented by both sides. Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games. Over is 6-0 in Suns last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Suns last 7 games as a home favorite.

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 OVER  in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.3 ppg going on the board.

The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11 going over by more than 15 ppg with rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 242 ppg. PHOENIX is 11-3 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less are 32-10 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

These two teams according to my projections will take part in a fairly physical affair that will see the combined score stay under this total. 

Golden State ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA while Boston is 10th in ppg allowed and 21st in pace. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-10 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Under is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Under is 12-4 in Warriors last 16 road games.

Warriors: 0-10 UNDER L/10 vs the Celtics .

Celtics: 1-8 UNDER at home in 1/1 rest. 

NBA  Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 33-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

The Grizzlies according to my power rankings are one of the most under rated teams in the NBA and deserve respect here vs a Bucks side that is 0-9 ATS L/9 vs Southwest division sides. I know Memphis played yesterday and may not be ready to run and gun in this spot, they do have the weapons needed to be competitive. Note: The Grizzlies are 6-1 L/7 ATS with no rest vs non conference opposition. 

MILWAUKEE is 7-16 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS   versus  teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.MEMPHIS is 16-7 ATS  in non-conference games this season.

Play on Memphis to cover

The Capitals have allowed 1 goal or less in 4 of their L/7 games, while the Flyers are a hot or miss type side when it comes to puck stopping. The Caps have looked explosive offensively of late, but that will make the Flyers even more aware of their defensive play especially after being humiliated 6-1 the last time these teams met.  I now have this game   pegged to remain on the low side of the total because of the countervailing view of how this afternoon game plays out. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 UNDER   in home games against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 4 goals or more, off a road win by 1 goal are  22-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Erick Fedde(RHP0-1, 8.53 ERA, 6 SO)  continues to step up in the starting rotation while Jon Lester ramps up. This will be his third start of the season. On Monday, Fedde held the Cardinals to one run on two hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile,Luke Weaver(RHP ,1-0, 2.13 ERA, 11 SO) had one of his finest outings since early in the 2019 season last time out against the Reds. He carried a perfect game into the sixth and a no-hitter into the seventh before settling for seven one-hit shutout innings and enters this game in top form.ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER  on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.LOVULLO is 33-18 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of ARIZONA.Under is 8-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4 in Nationals last 13 vs. National League West.

Play UNDER 

Dane Dunning(RHP1-0, 1.00 ERA, 11 SO)The rookie looks to continue his early season dominance. After giving up a home run in his first inning of 2021, Dunning has pitched eight scoreless innings and garners support here in his current form.TEXAS is 6-1 against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons.Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series. 

Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.

Rangers are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win 

Yu Darvish(RHP1-0, 3.06 ERA, 19 SO), who was catch partners with Clayton Kershaw during their 2017 stint together in L.A., faces off against his former teammate. He's been excellent in his past two outings, allowing one run on three hits in each of those starts and gets my support here on a value line at home.  Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.. ROBERTS is 49-62  against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 as the manager of LA DODGERS.Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

When these teams played back on March 4th they combined to put 223 points on the board in a Bucks 112 -111 win vs the Grizzlies. My projections in rematch estimate a combined score that is in the 233 range which gives us a more than 1 possession advantage. After playing last night the Grizzlies will not have the legs to run with the explosive Bucks, so instead I look for a concerted effort in transition that will slow this game down enough for a more muted score than many might expect. 

It must be noted that the Bucks rank 7th in defensive rating and the Grizzlies 8th.: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.

MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average fo 217 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 209.1 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 23-11 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored in those 34 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 60-21 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER