Alex Smart

Buy in games with a total of 130 or over have gone under 72% of the time in th history of the NCAA tournament. Its a do or die-situation so teams have a tendency of being  conservative  and this one sets up for a closely contested lower scoring affair. 

BELMONT is 13-4 UNDER  in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.8 ppg scored.BELMONT is 9-1 UNDER  after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 146.3 ppg scored. 

TEMPLE is 8-1 UNDER  after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 127.5 ppg scored. ( They lost their reg season finale  74-80)

Play on the  UNDER 

NIT - First Round

 Campbell has seen 4 of their L/5 games entering the NIT go over the total, with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at 149.2 ppg. UNC Greensboro has been explosive offensively at home this season averaging 78.6 ppg and from a matchup systems power rankings system I use for totals  projections  should be ready to pour down points again, with Campbell capably chasing which Im betting results in a higher scoring game then the lines makers are expecting. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CAMPBELL) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 69-34 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

OVER 

Atlanta is one of the few teams that has had some  success in "slowing" Houston's James Harden. With Harden a little banged up after straining his neck again in last trip to the hardwood, the young Hawks could find a way to slow him again, which will give them a strong chance at covering as home dogs in this spot.The Hawks explosive offence has averaged 123.1 points in their first 12 games since the All-Star Game, but only 91 on Sunday, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 8-20 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and is 4-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.HOUSTON is 6-14 ATS  as a road favorite this season. Atlanta has covered 14 of the L/20 meetings between these franchises. 

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 31-10 ATS L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Sixers took out the Milwaukee Bucks in a 130-125 offensive slugfest yesterday , and will now be in a natural letdown spot, and less than ready to run and gun vs a Charlotte side that is off a   93-75 loss at Miami on Sunday .The Hornets are 7-28 L/35  UNDER with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had more turnovers than assists wth a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored.

Im now expecting the Sixers a team that HC Brown has said needs to pay more attention to the defensive end as the play offs come closer to practice stringent defence in transition .  It must also be noted that the 76ers are 8-1 UNDER  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average 218 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the combined average score of 205.3 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average of 205.5 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 41-14 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Isles and the Bruins are two solid defensive teams. NYI has allowed 2 goals or less in 5 of their L/6, while, Boston has allowed 2 goals or less in 7 of their L/12. The Bruins rank 3rd in the NHL in GAA and the Islanders are ranked No.1 in GAA. Im betting on Defence and more defence  in a game I project to stay under the set total.

NY ISLANDERS are 15-3 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season this season.NY ISLANDERS are 21-7 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

BOSTON is 18-7 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.BOSTON is 15-4 UNDER  after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.

These teams have gone under in 6 of the L/7 meetings. 

Play UNDER 

The 1st place Islanders under Barry Trotz are a fine team that deserves my respect, but at least for tonight Im betting they end up on the short end of the score vs a long time nemesis the Boston Bruins.New York has lost six in a row overall to Boston, including both meetings this season, and seven consecutive matchups at home versus the Bruins and Im betting nothin will change tonight as the Bruins play the type of disciplined hockey that rivals that of the Islanders . With the  Bruins top line expected to be reunited as Pastrnak returns from injury for this tilt. 

Bruins are 23-6 in their last 29 games playing on 2 days rest.

Bruins are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Favorite is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

NHL Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (BOSTON) - poor defensive team- 29 or more shots against,17% or less power play killing rate in the 2nd half of the season, hot offensive team - 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal are 58-19 L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate and are a perfect 9-0 L/9 this season! 

Play on the Boston Bruins to win on the moneyline 

Robert Morris fell in the semifinals of the 2019 Northeast Conference Tournament with a 66-62 setback @ Fairleigh Dickinson and will be primed for bounce back here to start the CIT. This game is being lined a essentially a pickem, which gives an edge to Robert Morris as Head coach Andrew Toole owns the highest winning percentage (.615) in games decided by five points or less (minimum 50 games) during the KenPom era (2002 to present). In nine seasons under Toole, the Colonials have posted a record of 59-37 in games decided by five points or less.

ROBERT MORRIS is 11-3 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.ROBERT MORRIS is 6-0 ATS off a road loss this season. 

Play on Robert Morris to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH

Temple is highly under rated as was evident when, beating Houston and had only one loss in the third-fourth quadrant (15-1 record). They barley got to the elimination game for the tournament but are highly dangerous in a game that is being lined as close and according to my rankings are dead even with Belmont thus giving us value on the line. Note: Temple is 9-2  SU in games decided by five points or fewer and are a perfect  4-0  in overtime games.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Neutral court teams (BELMONT) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season are 54-95 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

672 Temple  to cover

No. 2 seed in the NIT Texas goes head to head with  No. 7 seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits.

South Dakota State won the Summit League regular season championship with a 14-2 record and  are strong and under rated  mid-major program coming off of three NCAA Tournament appearances, behind  6"9 " senior forward Nick Daum, the three-time reigning Summit League Player of the Year. The versatile all around hoops player is  averaging 25.3 points and 11.7 rebounds this season and could easily end up being a huge headache for HC Smart and company. 

Overall this is not a good matchup for Texas as they have had problems  playing fast paced offences like  this season like TCU where they recently struggled in transition .  Thats not a good omen against a high octane run and gun hoops group like South Dakota State that ranks No. 36 nationally in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, Texas will also have to deal with a tenacious and disciplined group  ranking  (No. 7 nationally) in offensive rebounds and in allowing charity stripe chances ranking  (No. 3 nationally).

With that said, Im betting the Jackrabbits force the Longhorns out of their comfort zone and  will make sure that their  moving consistently and attacking immediately out of transition. Texas is a public team , and the line is bloated thanks to their popularity and we now have an opportunity to fade them on what is an advantage line.

Take the points 

675 South Dakota State  to cover