Alex Smart

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

I was not going to touch this one, but when the line got down to a FG I had to bite on what Im betting is the better team playing at home.  

First off Murray does not look 100% , and while Stafford is probably also not in great shape overall, because of the some of the punishment he took hes in a better portion to succeed tonight as he does not need to consistently scramble to make plays. 

The Rams have won and covered 5 of the L/6 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. ( Rams are also 8-1-1 ATS L/10 in this series) Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Kingsbury is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

LA RAMS are 25-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFLUnderdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.4 which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

WYOMING is 19-35 ATS  L/54 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

NEVADA is 15-4 ATS   versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better  over the last 2 seasons.

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Oklahoma City may not inspire many pundits with their W/L record but what  is impressive is their ability to consistently beat the line, as they have only failed to cover 3 of their L/16 overall games. I know Dallas has been playing a strong brand of hoops lately, but with this being their 9th game in 17 days they may be a little bit lethargic vs a younger very well conditioned side. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-4 ATS  versus poor offensive teams - scoring 108 or less points/game this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-4 ATS  versus poor offensive teams - scoring 108 or less  points/game this season.

DALLAS is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

 NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 95 points or less are 4-28 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate for bettors.

 NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 44-18 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

 Brooklyn has been playing inconsistent hoops  of late and are just 4-6 SU L/10 2-8 ATS L/10  and have not won back to back games since late December. If their recent history mimics their inadequacies lately the Nets after a victory last time out will come out with a down effort vs a side that has is in strong form of late as is evident by winning 4 of their L/5 overall. Note: Nets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

BROOKLYN is 1-9 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.

CLEVELAND is 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Cavaliers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home game

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (104 or less PPG), after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game are 16-47  ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Philadelphia has been playing some strong ball of late but with this being their 6th game in 9 days are on tired legs. Also if Bradly Beal comes out of Quarantine today for Washington I wont be surprised if the Wizards take this game SU. Advantage Wizards taking points. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 143-89 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 10-37 L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover 

Memphis had a 11 game win streak end last time out, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here tonight vs a Chicago side that is struggling as is evident by a current 3 game losing skein and losses in 4 of their L/5 with their only win coming against Detroit. 

MEMPHIS is 14-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. MEMPHIS is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 4-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 which qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-62 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis Grizzlies 

Indiana is really struggling having lost 9 of their L/10 and  are just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. I know that the Clippers have not played much better, and have their two top players out ( Leonard, George) but here at home have enough edges to get us a win and cover. Note: Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

INDIANA is 9-19 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

A CLIPPERS are 21-9 ATS  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 195 points or less are 28-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 . 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.