Ben Burns

I'm playing LA on the money-line. We've seen the Nuggets come back from being down 3-1. Twice. So have the Lakers. This talented and veteran team is too good and too smart to let it happen to them. Expect them to end the Nuggets season. Tonight. As Dwight Howard noted: "The job is not finished." Fourteen times, Lebron James has been up 3-1 in a playoff series. His teams have won all 14 of those series. No team has come back against him, down 3-1. In 11 of those 14 cases, the series ended in Game 5. The Lakers already closed out Portland AND Houston in Game 5. Coach Vogel had this to say: "Our group's demeanor in all of these playoff games has been to treat every one like a must-win. I would say that same mindset has applied to the close-out games we had against Houston and Portland ... and we expect this to be no different." So long Denver. 

I'm playing on NY. Off yesterday's loss, their third straight, expect the Yankees to be all business this afternoon. Three of Garcia's five starts, including his lone home start, have been of the quality variety. He went seven innings in that one and has a 3.86 ERA and 1.143 WHIP to show for it. That's more than Rogers has done all season. Only one of his six starts, none of his past three, have been quality - and he went six innings in that one. Since that lone quality start, Rogers has really struggled. Over his past three starts, he's got a horrible 12.60 ERA and 2.40 WHIP. Needless to say, the Yanks are licking their chops. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Yankees have fared well as home favorites in this range. I say they bounce back. Big. 

I'm playing on MAN. U. Clearly, Manchester United has an edge in talent. Looking for their first points of the season and off a disappointing result, I also expect them to be extremely motivated. As Ole Gunnar Solskjaer noted: "They’re getting better and fitter and sharper We will get better and better, and fitter and fitter. But we can’t wait and say ‘well, we’ll get fit in 3 weeks’ time’. We need to get going straight away." The Seagulls won 3-0 at Newcastle United on Sunday, an impressive win for them. However, they haven't recorded back-to-back league wins since November 2019. Also, the victory was costly as they will now be without midfielder Yves Bissouma. He's serving the second part of a three-match suspension after being sent off in the Newcastle game. Remember, there was a lot of optimism surrounding this United team, after they went on a 14-game undefeated streak to close last season. Don't write the Red Devils off due to one sub-par performance. They'll bounce back here. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. While there are still some questions about the OSU QB (Gundy noted this Monday: “We’ve got three guys available and we’ll have to make that decision based on practice reps.”) situation, there's no question about their ground game. Expect Chuba Howard (2093 yards, 21 TDs LY) to do his thing. Meanwhile, the Cowboy defense also comes in on a high. Last time out, they allowed just 278 yards on 59 plays and limited Tulsa to 0-for-12 on third down conversions.  As Gundy mentioned: "The defense was fabulous. Zero-for-12 on third down and one-for-four on fourth down is really the story of the game.” Expect that defense to give the WVU offense trouble on Saturday afternoon. Remember, WVU had the worst offense in the Big-12 last year. While they failed to cover in the win over Tulsa, Gundy's Cowboy's typically thrive in September. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win.