Ben Burns

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Getting an extra +1.5 runs, for this price, with Fried on the mound is a bargain. Fried is a beast and he's in outstanding current form. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.41 ERA. The Braves won all three of those. Dating back to late July, the Braves are 11-2 in Fried's last 13 starts. Both the two losses were by a single run, one of those coming against LA. In other words, one would be a perfect 13-0, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each of Fried's last 13 starts. The Braves won 4-2 in Fried's lone 2021 home start against the Dodgers. Playing at home and with extra rest, expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover" once again. 

I'm playing on CHELSEA. Brentford has enjoyed a rather remarkable start to life in the EPL. The Bees are outclassed in this one though. Chelsea has won six straight away "London Derby" games. In fact, a win here will make them the first team to ever win seven straight. While its been many years since these teams met in the EPL, the last two meetings in the FA Cup have both resulted in 4-0 wins for Chelsea. Brentford will be without midfielder Shandon Baptiste, which is a big blow. Wth Liverpool already blowing out Watford in early action, the Blues need to keep pace. They will. 

I'm playing DETROIT on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) We're seeing a lot of 1-goal games to start the season; the significance of an extra +1.5 goals can't be understated. Last night, all three games were decided by a single goal. The previous night, five of nine games were decided by a single goal. Two of the five Wednesday games and one of two, on opening night, were also decided by a single goal. The Canucks have done their part to contribute to those numbers. Both Vancouver games have gone past regulation, each decided in a shootout. Here, the Canucks are playing their second game in two nights and their third road game in four nights. That's asking a lot of them, this early in the season. Detroit's lone game was also decided by a single goal, a 7-6 loss to the defending champs. Three of the past five meetings were decided by one goal. Expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover" from the rested home team. 

I'm playing BOISE on the ML. The Falcons are playing well. However, this is a very tough place to play. Also, Air Force's schedule has been soft. Off a win at BYU, the Broncos are coming in full of confidence. The Broncos are 17-4 SU the past 21 times that they were listed as favorites. They're far more "battle-tested" than the Falcons and that will serve them well today. Boise won last year's meeting by a score of 49-30. That's four straight double-digit wins in the series. This one may be closer but the result, a Boise "W," will be the same. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. (ML) While I respect the Bruins, I believe that the Huskies are better than many realize and I really like how this game sets up for them. While the season hasn't started the way that the Huskies had hoped, this is an experienced and talented Washington team. Last week's bye has given them a chance to regroup. The season isn't lost yet. Remember, the Huskies have won their last two at home. They beat Cal here last game and they hammered Arkansas State (52-3) in their previous game here. While the Huskies have had extra rest and preparation, the Bruins are playing their second straight road game. Washington, 4-1 the past five times it was off a conf. loss, has won the past two meetings with UCLA. I expect another victory this evening. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet.