Ben Burns

With the Astros favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers for roughly a pick'em price. With Gibson on the mound, I feel that's providing us with fair value. Gibson struggled against Detroit his last two outings. However, those starts against the Tigers notwithstanding, he's been consistently getting it done all season. In three starts against Houston, he's allowed 1, 1 and 2 runs while going six, six and seven innings. So, four runs in 19 innings. Prior to the games against Detroit, the Rangers were 5-2 in Gibson's previous seven starts, one of the two losses coming by a single run. The Astros lost Valdez's last start, as he gave up two HR's. His previous start was a 1-run win. His last two starts vs Texas were also 1-run games. Consider Texas on the run-line. 

I'm playing on LA. With the Dodgers missing some key players, this line has come down from its opening number. While the Dodgers are still fairly heavy favorites, they're now far more "reasonable" than they originally were. Enough so, that I'm ready to jump on them. Off a painful loss Thursay, the champs stumbled again last night. This is a team which is too good - even short-handed - to keep losing though. Not to the likes of the Rockies, who are still just 10-34 on the road. Gonsolin has a 2.80 ERA in seven starts overall and a 2.84 mark in his last three. Freeland, on the other hand, is 0-2 with a 6.26 ERA (1.696 WHIP) in five road starts, the Rockies going 1-4. Making matters worse for Freeland is that the Dodgers just saw him a week ago. That's not the case for the Rockies with Gonsolin. Freeland's last two starts vs. LA have resulted in 9-2 and 9-3 losses. Gonsolin struck out 10 Colorado hitters in five innings last time he faced the Rockies and his last home start against the Rockies saw him allow only three hits and one earned run (8 K's) through six complete. Dodgers bounce back. 

I'm backing ADRIAN YANEZ on Saturday. Like the main event, this one should be exciting. When Costa wins, he does so by KO. He's going to come out firing right from the opening bell. Yanez is favored for good reason though. He knows what Costa is all about and he's going to be ready. An excellent counter-striker, the composed Yanez will weather the early storm and take advantage of his opportunities. Yanez, in fact, is excited by the fact that Costa will be aggressive. He noted: "He's going to go out there and try and be in your face the whole entire time. I want that type of a style fight. I know I can thrive in that situation. My last two fights in the UFC, I'm not going to say they were easy, but I wasn't really posed too many big problems.....I feel very confident, because I know he’s going to bring that dog out of me, and I know I can really dig deep." It's going to be wild but ultimately I believe Yanez is the slicker and more complete fighter and I see him scoring the KO. 

I'm backing COREY SANDHAGEN in Saturday's main event. This should be an exciting fight. Dillishaw is a former champ, one who is coming off a 2-year suspension. Sandhagen is an up-and-coming fighter, off b2b impressive KO's. These two know each other as they used to spar regularly in Colorado. While Dillishaw was the star back then, he even acknowledges that Sandhagen often got the better of him. Note that Sandhagen, 29, is the much taller fighter with a considerable reach advantage. Needless to say, Dillishaw has something to prove. If he wins, many will forgive and forget his previous scandal. However, if he loses, many will credit his previous success to cheating. While Dillishaw has done a lot of talking, this will not be an easy return. In his 2-year layoff, Sandhagen has fought five times. Dillishaw, now 35, would have indeed benefitted from his previous drug use. Otherwise, why risk it? I say age, inactivty and a tough hungry younger opponent, determined to get his title shot, will prove to be too much for Dillishaw. 

I'm playing NY on the run-line (+1.5 runs) As you may be aware, the Yankees are somewhat short-handed right now. That's a big part of the reason why Boston is a mid-sized favorite on the moneyline. I feel the Yankees' situation has helped to create value for us on the run-line though. With Boston favored on the ML, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Yanks for a very reasonable price. While we very may well not need them, those extra +1.5 runs could also prove invaluable. Keep in mind that Taillon is in excellent current form. He blanked these same Red Sox for 5 1/3 innings last time out and is 2-0 with a dominant 1.47 ERA and 0.847 WHIP his past three. The Yankees have registered lopsided wins (8-1, 11-5, 12-1 and 9-1) in four of his past five starts and the other game was a 1-run loss. The Sox, on the other hand, are 0-2 in Eovaldi's last two starts. The Yankees, who were off b2b 1-run games before yesterday, had been playing well before this series. They know they need this one. Grab the extra +1.5 runs with the visitors and expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Angels jumped all over them in the first inning yesterday but I expect the Twins to have the advantage Saturday. Over the past two months, Berrios has made five home starts. In that 33 inning span, he allowed a total of just nine earned runs, while striking out 43. Note that he hasn't allowed a HR in any of his past three starts here, either. On the other hand, Sandoval gave up two HR's (and 6 overall runs) in his last start alone. The Twins won Berrios' lone start against the Angels this season. Berrios had no trouble with Ohtani. That was a game with Rendon batting third for the Angels. He's out now, of course, as is Trout. Note that they had hoped to have Rendon back by now but that his injury is taking longer than expected. I see the Twins taking this one. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Better late than never. Castillo was terrible to begin the season, one of the most disappointing starters in the majors. However, he's absolutely found his form of late. Over his past three starts, he's got an outstanding 0.98 ERA. He's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight starts, one or less in six of those. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings. While Castillo has now been getting it done for weeks, Woodford has only made one start this season and it came at home. Note that he's got a poor 4.76 ERA on the road (in relief) this season. Seventeen of his 18 appearances this season have come out of the bullpen. He's got a 4.67 career ERA. I see the Reds rolling in this one. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Cubs yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again Saturday afternoon. Here's how I started yesterday's writeup: "After a tough series at St. Louis, the Cubs will be happy to return to Wrigley, where they'll step down in class to face Arizona. While the Diamondbacks are off some recent wins, those came at home. Keep in mind that the Cubs are 28-17 at home and that the Diamondbacks are 11-38 on the road. No other team has as many road losses. While the Cubs are a modest 22-20 in day games, the Dbax are an ugly 10-22 when playing during the day." With the 8-3 loss, the Dbax are now 11-39 on the road. Kelly has done his part. He's 2-5 (team is 3-7) in 10 road starts, posting an ugly 5.33 ERA. On the other hand, Mills has a 2.53 ERA in this season's starts at Wrigley. While the Dbax haven't seen Mills this season, the Cubs just saw Kelly less than a week ago. That should favor the Chicago hitters. Cubs win.