Ben Burns

I'm playing on OREGON. This is rarely a good role for the Trojans. Indeed, they're just 5-12 ATS as road underdogs the past 2+ seasons. That includes an 0-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. During the same span, the Ducks were 8-3 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. The home team won big in both last season's meetings. USC hammered Oregon by a 66-49 score when the teams met in California. However, the Ducks took care of business by a 81-60 score when the teams played here. I say the gap between the teams is bigger now, too. The Ducks are going to put up a big number. Ultimately, I don't think the Trojans will be able to keep up. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Back-to-back hard fought losses are going to catch up to the Huskies tonight. I say they're ripe for a blowout. Note that UConn is 0-3 ATS in recent seasons when off b2b ATS wins but SU losses. Overall, the Huskies are just 7-13 ATS (5-15 SU) the past 20 times that they were off a road loss. The Cougars just won by double-digits at Wichita State. Those same Shockers recently handed the Huskies a home loss, the first of the two "hard fought losses" previously mentioned. Now, the Cougars return home where they're outscoring teams by an average score of 79.3 to 60.9. Houston won by 39 the last time that these teams met. Expect another double-digit margin. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. While the Buckeyes haven't been covering of late, they're still 7-3 ATS their last 10 as a home favorite. I feel tonight's matchup is a favorable one and I expect them to break out with a big win. The Gophers won by 13 when these teams met last season. That was at Minnesota though. The last meeting here saw the Buckeyes win by 20. Given the Gophers' problems away from home, this one figures to also get ugly. When playing away from Minnesota, the Gophers have gone 1-6 while getting outscored by an average score of 70.9 to 65. They're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) in true road games, going 4-24 SU the past 2+ seasons. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, outscore visiting teams by a dominant 79.2 to 56.4 average score. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE / INDIANA OVER the total. These teams are both solid offensively and both are going to put up a decent number tonight. The Spartans average 78.3 ppg, while connecting on 46.3% of their field goals. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, average 75.1. At home, that number climbs to 81.4 ppg on the strength of a 48.5 field goal percentage. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that Indiana played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that includes a 3-1 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. I say this one proves higher scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Cougars are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes haven't played since getting blown out 75-54 on 1/18, at Arizona. The last time that they were off a loss? Laying -8.5 points, they won by 39! The Colorado/Utah trip is always tough and the front-end of it, in this case, is the most difficult. While the points may seem attractive, consider that the Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 point range. During the same span, the Buffaloes were 7-3 ATS when off a double-digit conference loss. Don't be surprised if tonight's game brings back some memories of last year's game here, when the (+11.5) Cougars lost by 32. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Cavs have the schedule working for them here. They come in well-rested while their guests played last night. Not all back-to-back spots are created equally. The Wizards could have easily gone through the motions last night. If they'd suffered a blowout loss, they'd probably be ready to come out strong tonight. However, that didn't happen. Instead, to their credit, the Wizards left it all on the floor. Playing at one of this season's toughest venues (the Heat are now 20-1 at home!) the Wizards took their hosts to OT. Ultimately, Miami won by a 134-129 score. That type of hard-fought loss will take a toll, mentally and physically, on the Wizards tonight. It'll be tougher for them to get up for a game against a Cleveland team playing out the string than it was for last night's game. Beal logged 38 minutes last night, one of four Washington players which was on the floor for 32 or more. The O/U line for this game is in the low 230s, as of this writing. That suits the Cavs just fine. They're 5-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater and 3-0 ATS when that line climbs to 230 or more. Winnable games don't come around often in Cleveland these days. Look for the Cavs to take advantage of tonight's opportunity.