Ben Burns

I'm playing on GSW/Minnesota OVER the total. With Curry out, we're working with a much lower O/U line than we would have been otherwise. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Even without Curry and Green, the Warriors are still going to be able to score. The Wolves have given up at least 116 points in three straight games. Minnesota will also put up a big number though. While they managed only 108 last game, the Wolves had scored 135, 141 and 125 in their previous three. These teams combined for 240 points last meeting here. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair, the OVER moving to 5-2 the past seven times that Minnesota played with two day's rest in between games.

I'm playing VANCOUVER on the puck-line (+1.5 goals). With the Capitals favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the Canucks for a very reasonable price. While we may not need them, those extra +1.5 goals could improve invaluable. Note that the last three meetings between these teams were all decided by a single goal. The last two were so close that they both went to a S/O. I successfully played against the Canucks at Carolina yesterday. However, I like how this game sets up a lot better. Having lost all three games since returning from their break, the Canucks are going to be highly motivated. While the Caps managed a 2-0 win yesterday, they'd lost their previous three games. They're also 0-4 the past four times that they allowed two goals or less in their previous game. Expect a big effort from the Canucks to lead to AT LEAST the "puck-line cover." 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/TB UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Eagles run the ball more times per game (32.4) than any team in football. Those frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Of course, they're unlikely to find things easy against a Tampa run defense which ranked third, in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. When these teams met earlier, Antonio Brown was targeted 13 times. He had nine receptions for 93 yards and a TD. Godwin was only targeted five times. However, he caught all five of those balls. As you're probably aware, neither of those receivers will be available this afternoon. Fournette also put up big numbers (2 TDs) in that game. He's out, too though. The Eagles have seen their past four Wildcard games finish below the total. I say this one does the same. 

I'm playing on PSU/OSU UNDER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 130. That was at Penn State, where the Nittany Lions were able to put up 64 points. The Lions figure to have trouble matching that number on the road. The Lions are playing their best defense in recent memory of late though. Last time out, they allowed just 49 points. They've allowed 74 or fewer points in every game in 2022. The only team to score more than 70 against them was Purdue, which got 74. Penn State has a player (Seth Lundy) who is doing a great job of guarding the opposing team's top player and he'll be charged with slowing down OSU's E.J. Liddell. PSU coach Shrewsberry said this of Lundy: "At the start of the year, there probably wasn't anybody in here that was waving the Seth Lundy all-defensive team flag. Seth Lundy has guarded the best player, or one of the best players, on every single team this year. He's making it tough on people. His athleticism, length, attention to detail -- that attention to detail has really improved." The UNDER is 14-7 the past 21 times that the Lions were off a victory. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. 

I'm playing on IONA. This is a mismatch. The Gaels are much stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They'll finish at, or near, the top of the MAAC. The Purple Eagles, on the other hand, are likely destined to finish in the middle of the pack, or near the bottom. The Gaels knocked the Eagles out of the (conference) tournament last year, winning by six at a neutral site. This year's Iona team is arguably even stronger. Prior to the season, Rick Pitino acknowledged as much: "... it's a much better team than last year's team." I like that the Gaels have been winning, but not covering, as that has helped in keeping this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. Note that they're 15-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. Consider that Iona was just laying -15.5 against Manhattan, a team arguably more talented than Niagara. I also like that Pitino has been unhappy with his team and demanding more. Afte the 8-point win over Manhattan, he was quoted saying: "I don't think we're playing great basketball right now and that bothers me. Where am I at in the season right now? I'm not pleased. It's up to us to do something about it. We're certainly happy with winning any game. But we're not happy with the way we played against Marist. We're not happy with the way we played against Saint Louis. And we're certainly not happy with the way we shot free throws tonight." With a tough game at Monmouth on deck, I say Pitino keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. He'll recognize that a blowout win would be great for morale/momentum and that's what I expect his team to deliver this afternoon.

I'm playing on WEST HAM. These teams are on a different level. The Hammers are surging. They sit in fourth place in the EPL and the two teams behind them are facing each other this weekend. Picking up maximum points against lowly Leeds is imperative. West Ham has scored 39 goals in league play, Leeds has scored 21, while conceding 37. Even if Leeds was healthy, this was going to be a mismatch. However, the Whites are dealing with some serious injury issues and will be without numerous players. This game should go only one way, a convincing victory for the superior squad. 

I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on SF/Dallas UNDER the total. Cowboys/49'ers facing each other in the playoffs. Feels like old times. While the 49'ers got down and were forced to throw for a lot of yards in their Week 18 game vs. the Rams, this is a SF team which likes to establish the run. Arguably, the 49'ers' season turned around in a game (31-10 win over LA) where they ran the ball, over and over. In fact, both teams are in the top half of the NFL, when it comes to how often they like to run the ball. The 49'ers rank fifth in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Cowboys rank #12th. They're #7 and #9, respectively, in terms of rushing yards per game. So, we've got a pair of teams which are going to run the ball regularly. That will help to keep this clock moving. As for the Rams game, it finished with 48 points in regulation; the winning field goal came in OT. Also, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that SF had accumulated 250 or more passing yards, in its previous game. Prior to the LA game, the 49'ers had been involved in four straight games which stayed below the total. Scores were 30, 37, 44 and 49. (The 49-point game saw nine points scored in OT.) The Cowboys defense is better than advertised. Even after last week's game got crazy, they've still held six of their last nine opponents to 20 or fewer points. Two of those teams got less than seven. Not surprisingly, six of the Cowboys' past 10 games have stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same.