Ben Burns

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Lamet has a 3.37 ERA his past three starts, striking out 21 while walking five. On the season, he's got a 3.19 ERA through six road starts. Lamet, who won't have to deal with Yelich, has made one career start vs. the Brewers. He struck out 12 without walking a batter, en route to a 7-5 win. He gave up just four hits, three runs. Houser has gone four innings or less in each of his past three starts, compiling an ugly 6.35 ERA and 1.677 WHIP. He lost 10-0 last time out. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the visitors. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While they may have lost yesterday, the Cubs are still 51-25 (+13.8) at home. They're also 29-13 (+9.4) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. The Reds, meanwhile, are 31-46 on the road. Mahle is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA since returning from Triple-A. On the season, he's 2-11 with an ugly 5.11 ERA. While Lester hasn't been great, he's still 8-4 with a relatively respectable 4.37 ERA through 15 home starts. Mahle gave up three HR's in five innings when he last faced the Cubs. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 5-1 the last six times that Lester started against Cincy. Cubs roll. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While the Braves blew yesterday's game, I expect them to bounce back today. Teheran has a 2.89 ERA through 15 home starts. Eflin, on the other hand, has a 4.39 ERA through 13 road starts. Eflin has made three 2019 starts against Atlanta and none have gone well. The Braves won all three games, the combined score was 30-14. Eflin gave up 20 combined runs (12 earned) in just 9 1/3 innings. The Braves are 6-1 when off a division loss where they were favored by -150 or more. Overall, they're 29-10 after having lost two of their previous three. They'll improve on those stats here. 

 I'm playing on BOSTON. The Giants outlasted the Sox yesterday but I expect a different result this evening. Samardzija is 1-2 with a poor 6.75 ERA in four appearances (3 starts) vs. Boston. Chacin has yet to allow a run in 5 2/3 innings with the Sox. While Samardzija has a 6.63 ERA his last three starts, the Giants are also an ugly 30-53 (-20) the past 2+ seasons, when off a 1-run win. Look for the Sox to bounce back, moving to 13-3 the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge a loss from a game in which they were favored by -200 or greater. They're 64-25 (+25.2) in that situation over the years. Sox roll. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. In my opinion, Bundy is a better pitcher than his numbers suggest. At least, thats certainly the case when he faces the Jays. Toronto fans know what I'm talking about. While averaging just over six innings, Bundy has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his past three starts against the Jays. In those three starts, he had 19 K's against just four walks. The Orioles are 2-0 in his 2019 starts against the Jays. Going back further finds that Bundy has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine starts against Toronto. Buchholz has a 6.31 ERA through five road starts. I expect the O's to bounce back, the Jays falling to 6-14 the past 20 times that they were off b2b wins and 23-41 after scoring eight or more runs in their previous game.