Ben Burns

I'm playing on the OVER in Game 1 of the Mets/Rockies Double-Header. I realize that its a cold day and I obviously have a lot of respect for de Grom. Still, this is a very low O/U number, for a game at Coors. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. As good as de Grom is, his last start here at Colorado saw 14 combined runs scored. Note the de Grom has the support of a NY bullpen which has a poor 6.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP on the road. His last three starts against the Rockies, overall, have produced an average of 12 combined runs. de Grom figures to get some solid run support, once again. Gonzalez has a 1.50 WHIP this season and he's 7-16 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP for his career. In this season's lone start, he had just one strikeout against three walks. He's supported by a Colorado bullpen which has a 5.66 ERA. Look for this one to find its way over the low number.

I'm playing on Detroit/Washington OVER the total. These teams both saw their games yesterday stay below the total. However, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. While the Pistons have seen the OVER go 7-5 when playing the second of b2b games, the OVER is also 9-4 when the Wizards played the second of b2b games. Going back further finds the OVER at 25-13 the past 38 times that Washington was in a b2b situation. While the Wizards last two games have finished below the total, that's been because of extremely high O/U lines, much higher than this one. Those games still finished with 232 and 234 combined points, respectively. Prior to that, the Wizards' previous two games produced 240 and 246. The last time that Detroit played the second of b2b games, the final combined score was 255, finishing above the number by roughly 40 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pirates took yesterday's game but the Brewers should bounce right back today. Anderson has a 4.50 ERA and a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Cahill, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP. Anderson will be happy to see the Pirates. His teams are 3-0 against them the past three times he started against them, winning by a combined score of 35-10. Overall, the Pirates are an ugly 19-39 their last 58 against southpaw starters. Cahill's lone road start was a disaster and the Pirate bullpen has a combined 6.52 ERA on the road. Brewers respond. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. In today's all southpaw affair, the Jays should have the advantage. Thursday, Toronto fell into an early hole and was unable to dig itself all the way out. Today, after yesterday's game was postponed, the Jays need to take advantage of the fact that Matz is on the mound. In two starts, Matz is already 2-0 with a stellar 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He's striking out more than a batter per inning. Matz will face a KC team which is 22-34 against left-handers the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Royals are also just 32-56, when off a win. While Matz is going six or more innings each time out, Minor (4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) went just four innings last time out. Keep in mind that he was 1-6 with a 5.56 ERA in 2020. The Toronto bullpen has a combined 2.09 ERA thus far and that number dips to 1.63 on the road. KC relievers have a combined 4.18 ERA. Even though they're missing some key players, the Jays still have some dangerous hitters in their lineup. Look for them to provide Matz with the support he needs for his third straight win. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the puckline (+1.5 goals) The Flyers have a score to settle in this one. Not only have the Capitals beaten them four straight times, but the Caps also embarrassed them by a 6-1 score in the most recent meeting. Since that 4/13 beating, the Flyers responded with a 2-1 shootout win over Pittsburgh, the type of win they can build some momentum from. The Caps, on the other hand, check in off an upset loss to lowly Buffalo. While that 5-2 loss marked their third staight "lopsided" result, the Caps had seen four of their previous five decided by a single goal. The Flyers have seen five of their last eight decided by a single goal. I'm expecting another tight one, the revenge minded Flyers bringing their best effort and earning AT LEAST a "puck-line cover." 

I'm playing NJ on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) With the Rangers heavy favorites on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the Devils for a very reasonable price. In a game that should be tight, that extra +1.5 goals could well prove invaluable. These rivals will meet for the third straight time. Having dropped the first two of those games, the Devils should be motivated to avoid getting "swept." Note that the Devils are actually 3-1 here at MSG, since March of 2020. The Rangers are just 21-33 (-9.5 vs. ml) the past 2+ seasons, off a win by two or more goals. During that span, the Devils were a profitable 21-19 (+10.6 vs. ml) when off three or more consec. losses. Look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a "puck-line cover." 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The O's took yesterday's game but with Dunning on the mound, I fully expect the Rangers to bounce back. I won with the 'under' in Dunning's last start, stating the following:"...I was really impressed with Dunning's first start. He allowed a single run through five innings. He struck out six without walking a batter, giving up just three hits in total. Unfortunately for Dunning, he isn't likely to get much run support here ..." That game would finish with a 1-0 final. For his part, Dunning allowed just two hits through four shutout innings, striking out five. He's now got a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP. While I stated that I didn't expect Dunning to receive much support (he got none) last time out, the opposite should be true today. Kremer will be pitching on three day's rest and he's got a 10.50 ERA and 2.33 WHIP, thus far. In six career starts, his ERA is above six. Despite going just three innings in each start this season, he still allowed a home run in each of them. He struggled in the spring, (6.32 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) too. Dunning, on the other hand, had a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the spring. Even off yesterday's win, the O's are still 56-100 against right-handers, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-4 in Kremer's last four starts as an underdog. Prior to scoring just two yesterday, the Rangers had scored six, five and eight runs in their previous three games. Pitching matchup and venue in their favor, I say the Rangers bounce right back. 

I'm backing LUIS PENA on Saturday night. When Luis "Violent Bob Ross" Pena burst on the scene, he did so with a lot of hype. He had the big hair, the nickname and he got off to a hot start. He may not have been quite ready for it though and needed some time to grow. He's had that time now though and is no longer over-hyped and over-valued. In fact, many seem quite down on him. Thats created excellent value for what should be a favorable matchup for him. No question that Munoz is an excellent wrestler. However, Pena is the far more well-rounded fighter and he's got a big edge in striking ability. Pena had this to say: "I'm feeling amazing actually. I can't lie, I've had some ups and downs in this camp because I have a tendency to almost overwork myself. But after taking a little bit of time to rest and recover during camp. I came back and my coaches were just blown away by how much that really helped me grow..." Expect him to have his arm raised.

I'm playing on WOLVERHAMPTON. The line on Wolverhampton came down from its opener, providing us with some extra line value on the superior squad. Given the gap between these teams, I feel that it easily could have gone the other way. The Wolves have indeed been disappointed with their campaign. They sit 12th in the standings and had absolutely hoped for better. They're off an exciting 1-0 win last time out though and while that win cost them Neto due to injury, I expect them to carry the momentum into this game. I like the fact that they scored late, kept fighting and found a way to win. Sheffield sits last in the standings with relegation a certainty. United has scored just 17 goals (Wolverhamption has 31) while allowing 55. Sheffiled continues to deal with several important injuries including captain Billy Sharp. Highlights have been few and far between for Sheffield but Sharp has provided them with a few. He'll be missed here. Off the late win against Fulham, Wolverhampton boss Nuno Espirito Santo noted: "The win was very important. This is what we want for the rest of the season, there are a lot of games to be played ... " Having been outscored 10-1 its last three league matches, Sheffield has essentially packed it in. Wolverhampton won the last meeting 2-0 and won't be denied another victory here.