Bryan Leonard

524 LA Lakers at Milwaukee

These two teams have played the weakest defensive strength of schedules in the league. So their offensive numbers are a bit inflated coming into this matchup. The Bucks defensive possession length is 14.8 seconds, which is the highest in the league. 

Neither team draws a lot of fouls and these are the two top teams in defensive free throw rate. So scoring with the clock stopped won’t be much of a factor. The Lakers lead the NBA in defensive points per possession, and both squads are off a rare loss. Look for this game to have extra intensity as it stays well below the posted total.

PLAY UNDER

528 New Orleans at Utah

Used the prior meeting as a play for our clients, and see no reason to change our mind here. New Orleans does one thing very well. Pound the offensive boards and keep opponents off their offensive glass. The problem is the Jazz do much of the same. The main difference is Utah is an excellent team shooting from distance, and they are doing more and more of that every game. New Orleans on the other hand allows more three pointers than anyone else in the league. Big matchup advantage here once again for the Jazz.

PLAY UTAH

757 Portland at BYU

The Pilots are not a good team and are 0-4 in conference. They enter play having dropped five straight games. But the spot screams Portland here.

BYU just played San Francisco, St Mary’s and Gonzaga, with a home and home with Pepperdine on deck. They have won 6 of 7 with the only loss at Gonzaga. After facing the top of the conference we can’t see the Cougars getting excited to play the Pilots here, with its next game coming up on Saturday. BYU is clearly the better team, but this line is a high threshold to overcome.

PLAY PORTLAND

11 Montreal at Vancouver

The Habs outplayed the Canucks last night and still walked away with a shootout loss. We look for Montreal to even the score here. They rank 12th in the league in 5 vs 5 xGF% compared to the host at 26th. 

The Vancouver victory yesterday was the first of the season. A main reason was the penalty situation. The Habs had 12 penally minutes while the Canucks had just two. Montreal is the better team and primed after what they feel was a game it should have won.

PLAY MONTREAL

2 Winnipeg at Ottawa

Thursday the Jets beat Ottawa 4-3 in overtime. The Senators dominated play in that contest with a 71.7% winning expectancy, along with a 2.96-1.80 goal expectancy. Murray was terrible in the net with a .857 save percentage. In xGF% the Jets rank 28th in the league while the Senators are a surprising 5th. Look for the host to get its revenge here as Ottawa continues its good start to the season.

PLAY OTTAWA