Bryan Power

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): No surprise here; I'm sticking w/ the Halos here as I believe they're the superior team in this AL West rivalry. Now, normally, I might make a case for Texas due to their YTD run differential of +28, which is the best among the eight teams currently competing for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. But as I've noted many times before, regression (in terms of wins and losses) was set to take hold on the Rangers from the start of 2017 and their season has played out exactly as I had anticipated. Remember, LY's team that led the AL in wins (95) only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! Simply put, they were "due" to win fewer games this year and barring a 36-1 finish to the season (ain't happening!), that will happen. As for the Angels, right now, I believe they are going to be the team that gets that last playoff spot. 

I've been on the home team in both games thus far and so has the smart money. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps fading Cole Hamels on Monday was not the best idea. But a 10-1 win last night was "more like it" as the Angels scored runs in all of the final four innings they came up to bat. They've now won 10 of their previous 13 games and yday's 16 hits were a season-high. Something I included in yday's analysis still rings true today and that's the Rangers are the worst hitting team in baseball on the road. It's not even close as their .220 batting average is 14 points lower than the next worst team! To put that gap in its proper perspective, note that it's larger than the one that exists between the 18th and 29th place teams! 

So with Texas' woes at the plate persisting, expect things to be fairly easy on Angels' starter Andrew Heaney tonight. While his 1st start of 2017 (coming off Tommy John surgery) didn't go so well, it did come at Baltimore, a team that can score in bunches at home. Heaney allowed FOUR home runs last Friday, which isn't a great sign, but I feel he's still worth backing here. The Rangers' counter with an Andrew of their own, Cashner, and he lost as a -210 money line favorite his last time out! That was against the White Sox as he walked four batters and gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP. He has a 3-7 TSR on the road, so that combined with his offense's issues means another loss is very likely for tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals were embarrassed last night by the Padres, losing 12-4. While it was their third loss in a row, I fully anticipate the Redbirds bouncing back tonight here at home. As stated many times before, San Diego - records aside - is the worst team in baseball. They have the worst run differential (-145) in either league and have been particularly brutal on the road, getting outscored by a whopping 1.6 runs per game. No team has a worse run differential away from home. There have been only FIVE times all season where they have beaten the same opponent, consecutive days, on the road. Three of those came at the expense of the Giants (twice) and Phillies. The Cardinals are in a pennant race (currently trail Cubs by 4.5 gms) and don't dare drop another one to such an inferior opponent.

What happened last night was a very rare power surge from the Padres. While not as rare as the solar eclipse we all saw Monday, you simply aren't going to find San Diego scoring 12 runs very often. Not only did that match their season-high (set previously twice, both time against the Giants), but it was more runs scored than their previous five games - combined. Eight of the 12 runs came late, breaking open what had been a 4-4 tie entering the seventh inning. You have to remember that the Padres still rank dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. Thus, I look for Cards starter Luke Weaver to be the beneficiary of some good ol' "Padres regression" here. Weaver has started only twice previously this season (last time was 8.2), but did throw two shutout innings in relief last Thursday, helping his team overcome a five-run deficit and beat Pittsburgh 11-7. 

Mirroring his team's awful play on the road, San Diego starter Jhoulys Chacin does not have good numbers outside of Petco Park this season. While his TSR might be 5-7, his ERA and WHIP are 7.05 and 1.650 respectively. Arguably the Padres' best starter, Chacin has had literally zero success vs. the Cards as he's 0-4 w/ a 5.81 ERA against them in five previous tries. While it's been St. Louis giving up plenty of runs lately, for the year, they only allow an average of 4.0 per game here at home. They are also 22-9 the L3 seasons after three or more consecutive losses. This is a tailor-made spot for the vastly superior team to bounce back Wednesday night. 10* St. Louis

6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): On paper, the Indians appeared to have what looked like a pretty significant edge in starting pitching yday vs. Boston. It was Carlos Carrasco facing off w/ Doug Fister, but it was Fister that came up big w/ a one-hitter in a surprise 9-1 victory for the Red Sox. While it's unusual to find the AL East leaders in this price range (closed at +165 last night), I'll jump in against them tonight as they must deal w/ Corey Kluber and I just can't see the Tribe losing B2B games as big favorites here at Progressive Field. This could very well be the first time all year that the Red Sox close at +175 or higher on the ML and it's more than justified considering Kluber has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts. Last night's final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the Red Sox scored six run late, most of that off the Cleveland bullpen. 

You probably don't need me to tell you that Kluber is having himself another downright filthy season. He is 8-1 w/ a 2.09 ERA and 0.860 WHIP at home. Last time out, he saw his streak of 14 consecutive starts w/ at least 8 K's end, but only due to having to exit early due to a mild ankle sprain. The Indians won anyway, 10-1, as Kluber gave up a solo home run in 5 1/3 IP and little else. That streak of 14 games w/ 8+ K's was one shy of Randy Johnson's MLB record, by the way. Since the start of June, Kluber has an other-worldly 155-18 KW ratio. Even after exiting that last start early, he remains 3rd among all American League starters in strikeouts. He is second in both ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.924) and the numbers only seem to getting better as the season wears on. Opponents are batting just .174 against him his L15 starts! His 14 complete games and five shutouts over the L4 seasons are both AL-bests. Boston knows all too well about how domninant Kluber can be as the last time they faced him (LY's ALDS), they were shutout for seven innings and held to three hits. 

Can Boston's Drew Pomeranz repeat the performance we saw from Fister last night? Unlikely. While he didn't give up any runs in his last start, Pomeranz lasted only 3 1/3 innings as he too was battling an injury (back spasms). He may be unbeaten (6-0) in 12 starts dating back to June 11th, but all things considered, I'll take Kluber over Pomeranz every time, especially if the latter is less than 100 percent. Cleveland's bullpen issues (Andrew Miller injured) don't matter as much here due to Kluber's ability to consistently pitch deep into games. The most significant injury heading into this matchup is on the Boston side as Jackie Bradley Jr is out after injuring his thumb on a slide in yday's game. 6* Cleveland