Bryan Power

10* Seattle (4:10 ET): Surprise, surprise. I have been intensly critical of Seattle over the last month and feel I was "early" on the bandwagon pointing out that a massive decline was due to set in. The Mariners won 13 of their first 15 games, but since that time are just 9-24. They massively overachieved last year in getting to just 89 wins, so for me, a sub-.500 finish this year was all but assured. They're now well on their way to that, but I feel we can now grab them at a great "buy low" spot as yesterday may have been their nadir of the season. Look for the M's to avoid the four-game sweep at home.

This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Twins outscoring the Mariners 36-11. They've won every game by at least five runs and yesterday was a beatdown of epic proportions as the final score was 18-4. Minnesota homered six times in the game, the fifth time they've hit 5+ HR in a game this year, which is the first time a team has ever done that before June. Having homered in 13 straight games, the Twins are now tied for the MLB lead in home runs, ironically w/ Seattle. I'm 2-0 in this series by the way, having cashed the Over Thursday and the Under Friday.

But as bad as things have gone the L3 days for Seattle, I think they're a great value today. Rarely do home teams get swept in a four-game series.  They send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound this afternoon and he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing three solo home runs in his last time out. I still have my suspicions about Twins starter Kyle Gibson, despite a good start to the season, record-wise. Gibson may have a 6-2 TSR, but he has an ERA north of 4.00.  10* Seattle

10* Over Blues/Sharks (3:05 ET): I'm 2-1 in this series and quite frankly should be 3-0. Were it not for the Blues getting jobbed in overtime in Game 3, the record would be perfect. I came back w/ the Blues in Game 4 and they delivered a 2-1 win to tie the series up at 2-2. Of course, the easier winner was Game 1 where I had the Over and that was a winner midway through the second period as San Jose was able to take advantage of numerous defensive lapses by St. Louis and wound up winning 6-3. Game 4 is the only game in this series not to go Over so far. 

The first three games of the series saw 9, 6 and 9 total goals scored. I can't say that I'm surprised that the first two games went Over as San Jose home games have a habit of doing that. They are 31-18-2 Over this season, including 13-3 the L16. A big key in that is that the Sharks' scoring goes up dramatically at home to 3.7 goals per game. That's something we've noted numerous times throughout the playoffs whether playing on them or the Over here at home. 

Maybe Blues goalie Jordan Binnington has hit a rookie wall as his save percentage has dropped to .884 in this series. San Jose's Martin Jones is right around that number as well at .882. Jones had a sub-.900 save percentage in the regular season anyway. San Jose is going to be tough to stop here at home, but I also feel St. Louis is going to score a few goals as well. The Over is 4-0-1 the Blues' last five games as an underdog. 10* Over Blues/Sharks

8* Under Pirates/Padres (4:10 ET):  Pittsburgh, like Detroit, is a team that has a troubling run differential. They've been outscored by 41 runs this season. While not nearly as bad as Detroit's run differential, what's perhaps more strange about the Bucs' is they actually have a winning record in spite of that negative run differential! This is a team I'll probably look to fade in the coming weeks, but for now let's look at the Under as they wrap up a four-game set w/ San Diego Sunday afternoon. The Padres are looking to earn a split here after losing each of the L2 days.

The last two games, again both Pirates' wins, have gone Over. Pittsburgh put seven on the board last night, but I wouldn't go looking for a repeat of that as they are second to last in the National League in runs scored (Miami). There's a pretty sizable gap between them and most of the other teams in the division. Note every other team in the Central, besides Pittsburgh, has a positive run differential this season. One thing that is keeping them afloat is that they are a respectable 6th in the NL in runs allowed. Today's starter Joe Musgrove was able to shake off a couple bad starts to throw seven innings of one-hit ball his last time out. That was in Arizona. Opponents are hitting just .209 off him for the season. 

One of the teams ahead of Pittsburgh in the National League, in terms of fewest runs allowed, is San Diego. But they too have an issue scoring runs as they are third from the bottom in the Senior Circuit. So, as you can see, this is a matchup tailor-made for an Under. The Padres go w/ Cal Quantrill in this spot as he's looking to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. He's allowed just four runs in 10 IP so far as a starter. The Pirates homered four times yesterday, but Quantrill has yet to give up any. The Padres are hotting just .223 at home this year. 8* Under Pirates/Padres

8* Over A's/Tigers (1:10 ET): Oakland has continued its complete emasculation of the Tigers by taking the first three games of this series by a combined score of 28-6. They've now taken 15 straight from Detroit going back to 2017. The horizon doesn't exactly look bright for Detroit right now as they've lost six in a row and send the struggling Gregory Soto the bump on Sunday. In two previous starts, Soto has a 13.50 ERA and 2.667 WHIP, which are obviously just dreadful numbers. The Tigers have been giving up a ton of runs lately and I'm afraid that trend will continue today. 

I'd be more apt to take Oakland to finish the sweep here were it not for Michael Fiers starting. This may seem odd considering Fiers' recent numbers, which include a no-hitter on May 7th against Cincinnati. But I feel those recent numbers (1.89 ERA, 0.684 WHIP L3 starts) are a little misleading when you look at "the big picture."  For the season, Fiers has a 5.12 ERA and 1.216 WHP, which is below par. He really tends to struggle on the road with a 7.76 ERA and 1.575 WHIP.

I had the A's Thursday when they won 17-3. In my analysis for that game, I noted the Tigers' terrible YTD run differential, which has obviously only gotten worse. They've now surpassed Baltimore for the worst run differential in the American League and are "hot on the heels" of Miami for the worst in the sport. In 44 games, the Tigers have now been outscored by 89 runs. At home, they are giving up 6.1 runs per game for the year and during the six-game losing streak (all at home), they've allowed a total of 52 runs (8.5 per game). Oakland road games average 11 runs per contest. 8* Over A's/Tigers

8* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): These teams failed to go Over for me yesterday, but I'll try again today, noting recent form for both starters isn't exactly inspiring stuff. Kyle Freeland of Colorado has a 7.41 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over. He's also been tagged for at least five runs in four of nine starts this year. He'll be opposed by Jerad Eickhoff, who has seen all five starts this year stay Under, but the last one saw him give up five runs in only four innings. Take the Over. 

Colorado now has lost three straight one-run games. They haven't managed much at the plate in this series, scoring only five runs on 14 hits in the two games. Prior to this visit to the City of Brotherly Love, the Rockies had seen the Over go 11-1 their L12 games. Now that comes w/ a bit of a caveat as all 12 games were either played w/ a DH or in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Still, they managed to score 10+ runs five times. They are more than capable of producing a big day at the plate on Sunday. 

The Phillies haven't had much offense in this series, but they haven't needed it either. I think they're in for a big day today against Freeland, who has had major problems with the long ball recently. He allowed three solo HR's in his last outing, upping the total # of HR's allowed to nine over the previous four starts. Eickhoff had been pitching well previous to the last outing, but he also has a 7.50 ERA in five previous games against the Rockies. 8* Over Rockies/Phillies