Bryan Power

10* Over Giants/Marlins (6:10 ET): Miami kicked off this series with a 4-1 win Friday. That’s far fewer total runs than what we saw in their previous series (against Atlanta) where the four games averaged 13.5 rpg. The Marlins won three of them, including two in extra innings. The offense has been far less spectacular at home this season, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they begin to “break out.” Same for the Giants, who are now 10-1 Under their L11 games. Nine of those 11 games have seen five or fewer totals runs scored. Seems unsustainable? 

Starting today for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. The Under is 3-0 in his 2021 starts and 7-1 his last eight starts going back to the end of last season. So again, I’m really “bucking” the trends here. But let it be known that Alcantara has allowed three runs each of his last two starts and he had a season-high three walks his last time out. He’s also long overdue for some run support after the Marlins have scored just seven total runs in his three starts this year. 

The Giants’ offense is near the bottom of the league right now with just 3.4 runs per game. They had even less than that last night as there were only three hits outside of Mike Yastrzemski’sdouble and triple. But I think they’ll get going tonight. As for starter Aaron Sanchez, it’s been a long road back to relevancy. After missing all of 2020 and a 5.89 ERA in ‘19, I’m not sold on his start to this season, which has seen him give up just three runs in 10 IP. These teams are DUE for an Over. This is a low number. It’s that simple. 10* Over Giants/Marlins

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): When the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic last month, it was supposed to lead to a charge up the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the team is now 3-9 SU since that trade and on a five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) following last night’s defeat at the hands of Memphis. Obviously, leading scorer Zach LaVine being in COVID protocol doesn’t help. But recent losses to the likes of Orlando and Minnesota are downright inexcusable when in the stretch run. As ugly as things have gotten here in the Windy City, I just can’t see the Bulls losing at home tonight to lowly Cleveland. 

The Cavaliers are actually just two games back of the Bulls, which should be a major wake-up call for the home team tonight. The Cavs are very much a bottom five team in the league, despite their “closeness” to the Bulls in the standings right now. I make that statement based on their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating. Cleveland is the worst offensive team in the NBA on a per game and per possession basis. If Chicago can’t win this one, they really ought to be ashamed of themselves.

The last time these teams met was last month and the Cavs did win here in Chicago, 103-94 as 7.5-point underdogs. But as you can see, we’re getting a MUCH shorter line with the home team in this one. The Bulls were just 28.6% from three-point range in that last meeting, a number I expect them to improve upon tonight. Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since beating the Bulls, so they’re in no better shape. I can’t see the Bulls’ defense being as bad as it was in the 2H last night. This is a classic “buy low” spot. 10* Chicago

8* Wolverhampton (3:00 ET): The Wolves are having a pretty disappointing Premier League campaign. They currently sit 12th in the table. But a late goal enabled them to take the full three from Fulham last week and now they’ve got a golden opportunity to make it back to back wins for just the third time in 2020-21.This one is especially important to them as they’ve lost two in a row here at home. One would have to go all the way back to 2018 to find the last time the Wolves dropped three straight at Molineux.

The opposition this week is last place Sheffield United, so I don’t think Wolves’ fans need to worry about matching that dubious mark. United, whose relegation is all but confirmed at this point, has turned in an absolutely dreadful campaign. At one point, it seemed as if they might set the Premier League record for fewest points in a season. That’s not going to happen, but they still have 10 fewer points than 19th place West Brom and are 18 adrift from where they’d need to be to avoid relegation. Making up that gap isn’t going to happen. 

Over the previous four fixtures, all losses, United has produced a goal differential of -11 as they’ve conceded 12 times while scoring only one goal of their own. On their travels this season, they have incredibly picked up just four points (out of a possible 45!) while scoring only seven goals in the process! So things are rather dire here. For the Wolves, the 1-0 win over Fulham snapped a five-match winless run. But the previous two home defeats came against Liverpool and West Ham, both of whom are top six sides right now. United is obviously at the opposite end of the spectrum and they are also winless in their last seven trips to Molineux. The reverse fixture was 2-0 back in September and I’m looking for a similar result Saturday. 8* Wolverhampton

8* Freiburg (9:30 AM ET): Something happened last week that had occurred only one other time during this entire Bundesliga campaign. Schalke actually won a match. Now the club’s second win of the season isn’t about to save them from relegation. The last place team in the table has only 13 points (10 fewer than the next worst team) and a -53 goal differential. To put that GD in perspective, the second worst (GD) in the Bundesliga is Arminia Bielefeld’s -24. There is a good chance that Schalke’s impending relegation fate will be officially sealed by this weekend (to be determined by results elsewhere). 

I think being off a win sets Schalke up as a clear fade on Saturday as they visit Freiburg. Given how poorly Schalke’s season has gone, it seems downright shocking that the price is so cheap here to go against them on the road. Now Freiburg is dealing with some injuries, but this middle of the table side still has more than enough to get the full three points here. Now I know they’ve lost four of five overall. But that should only serve to have them extra motivated for this very winnable match, especially on the heels of a BRUTAL 1-0 loss to Bielefeld where an own-goal was the difference maker. 

Despite the recent poor form, Freiburg is very much a “middle of the table” side and should remain there by season’s end. A win here could actually move them up into a 7th place tie, depending what else happens on Saturday. The idea that Schalke would win two in a row seems almost ludicrous seeing as they’ve haven’t gone two straight w/o losing at least one time since November! The reverse fixture, played back in December, was 2-0 Freiburg.  8* Freiburg