Bryan Power

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:45 ET): This is the one game in this report where I expect plenty of runs to be scored. It's hardly a strong matchup of a starting pitchers as the Cubs go w/ the relatively untested Alec Mills and the Giants go w/ the ineffective Shaun Anderson. The Cubs' last six games have all stayed Under the total, but we look for them to break out tonight as they actually average more runs per game outside of Wrigley. Admittedly, the Giants' offense has been pretty putrid here at home, but they'll have their chances today against Mills. Take the Over. 

The Cubs had won five in a row before losing 5-1 to the Padres Sunday. They are still 7-2 since the Break w/ all of those games played at home. Chalk yday up to being "one of those days," but we think the offense should fare well against Anderson as he has an 8.78 ERA and 2.101 WHIP his L3 starts. Those L3 starts all went Over w/ Anderson allowing 13 runs in 13 1/3 IP. They were all on the road, but Anderson's numbers at home this year aren't much better. Cubs' road games have been averaging more than 10.5 rpg this year. 

Anderson actually has a 3-0 TSR those L3 starts as well, thanks to the Giants scoring 28 runs, including 21 in the last two. Overall, his L4 starts have all gone Over. The Giants needed all of 11 runs to take three of four from the Mets over the weekend and what's interesting is that series went 47 innings as all three Giants' wins were in extra innings. I don't like their chances nearly as much in this series, but they've got a shot here as they're up against an unproven starter (only 1 start in 2019) and the Cubs' bullpen has generally been BAD on the road (5.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). The Giants are 9-2 since the All-Star Break. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

8* Under Marlins/White Sox (8:10 ET): What a miserable matchup this is for Monday. You've got two of the three lowest scoring teams in baseball here, so I don't think calling for an Under would be unreasonable. For awhile, Miami was looking like they might produce the fewest runs scored in a season since the "Dead Ball Era." Now they're just battling w/ Detroit for fewest runs scored this year. They're still producing only 3.6 rpg and were shutout yday (by the Dodgers). Not too far ahead of them are the White Sox, averaging 4.2 rpg and losers of 8 of 10 games since the Break. Take the Under in this one, folks.

Miami's last two games both went Over as they allowed 19 total runs. But that was against the Dodgers. The White Sox seem incapable of that kind of offensive production as they've topped five runs only once in their last 12 games. I'd issued a "warning" to the Southside as this team is far worse than it's 44-52 record. They've been outscored by 98 runs. That's the same differential as the 36-61 Marlins, who by the way have topped four runs just three times in the L10 games. Yesterday's shutout was the 15th instance of that happening to them this year. 

On paper, this doesn't look like a great starting pitching battle for Monday. But Ivan Nova has strong career numbers vs. Miami. He's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.98 ERA in four career starts against them. Also, the last time Nova started here at home, he shut out the Cubs for 5+ innings in a 3-1 win. Meanwhile, the White Sox have never seen Miami starter Trevor Richards, who has done an adequate job pitching for a bad team this season. The Under is 4-1 in Richards' last five road starts and 12-4-1 in the Marlins' L17 road games overall. 8* Under Marlins/White Sox

8* Under A's/Astros (8:10 ET): Oakland comes into this very important series having won 8 of 10. But they lost yday in crushing fashion up in Minnesota Sunday and would seem to be on the wrong end of a pretty severe pitching mismatch in Monday's opener. Furthermore, the Astros just swept the Rangers over the weekend, holding them to all of all of five runs. The last run through the Houston rotation saw the five starters all allow three runs or fewer. Now tonight it'll be (arguably) the best of the lot going, Gerrit Cole, who leads all of MLB in strikeouts w/ 194. But I also don't project Houston to score much in this game, so Under is the call here. 

At first, I was a little leery of believing in Oakland starter Homer Bailey in this spot. After all, Bailey has a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. But that's skewed by one bad one (at Toronto on 6.29) when he was still w/ Kansas City. He's actually allowed 3 ER in six of his last seven starts overall, posting a 2.85 ERA during that time. Bailey also has good career marks vs. Houston as he's 3-0 lifetime against them w/ a 1.46 ERA in eight career efforts. As a member of the Royals, Bailey tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings vs. the Astros back on 6.18.

So Bailey should do just fine here. But the rest of the Oakland lineup should struggled against Cole, who has looked great of late while posting huge strikeout totals. Cole has given up 2 ER or less in 9 of his previous 10 outings, one of those coming against the A's (back on 6.2). In his L2 starts, Cole has 24 K's. He's got a 0.924 WHIP at home this year where his TSR is 9-2. The A's have really struggled to beat the Astros this season as they are 1-7 in eight head to head meetings, plus they've scored two runs or less in six of those games. 8* Under A's/Astros