Bryan Power

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The mistake here is that the public sees the line an automatically gravitates towards the Sixers, who are third in the East and a "name team." But while Charlotte is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference, they're a much better team than the record shows. This has actually been the case for some time now w/ the Hornets. But the problem has been an incredibly frustrating 5-24 SU record in games decided by three points or less the L3 seasons. Their 10 such losses this year are easily the most in the league. But tonight, I've got them picking up a much needed win! 

Sunday saw the Hornets turn in an absolutely dreadful showing at Miami. They put up only 75 points, which was fine by me as I had the Under (and it was a 46-point winner!) But from Charlotte's perspective, it was a very bad loss. It put them 2.5 games behind the Heat for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. It was also their 8th loss in the past 11 games. But despite this, a return home should do the team some good. They're 21-14 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents by about 4.0 PPG. This is a stark contrast to the team's poor performance on the road. 

The Hornets basically have their "backs against the wall" going into this one. If they don't turn things around quickly, then it's time to kiss the playoffs goodbye. The upcoming schedule is challenging. But for as poor as Sunday's performance looks on paper, note it was a close game going into the 4th quarter. But they missed 13 of their final 16 shots, including all eight three-point attempt, and finished the game w/ a season-low 31.3 FG%. They'll be much better tonight, trust me. Philly is coming off a 130-125 win over Milwaukee (in spite of 52 pts from Giannis Antetokounmpo), but prone for a letdown on the road where they're just a game over .500 for the season (and -2.1 PPG). The fact that the Sixers are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Hornets in 2018-19 is misleading when you consider all three games were decided by three points or less and all were played before Thanksgiving. Two were overtime games. This is Charlotte's chance to make a statement and I believe they will deliver big-time. 10* Charlotte

10* Temple (9:10 ET): Belmont is the rare at-large NCAA Tournament entrant. The Bruins tied for the regular season title in the OVC (w/ Murray State), but fell to the Racers (who are led by the sensational Ja Morant) in the Tourney Final. I think it's nice that the Bruins got into the field of 68 (they were deserving!), but this is a much tougher draw than most realize. I reckon that Belmont will be the popular play b/c of the story here, but it's a little surprising they are favored considering Temple is the better defensive team and played a far tougher schedule in the American. I'm taking the points here. 

Temple had an early exit in the American Tourney, losing to a lower seed (Wichita State) in the quarterfinals, 80-74 as 1.5-pt chalk. They limited the Shockers to 39.1% from the field, but the problem was the Owls had their own "off-shooting night." The Owls finished 3rd in the American, behind only Houston and Cincinnati. They were one of only two American teams to beat Houston in the regular season. While an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games this year, the Owls were rarely blown out. Their largest loss (18 pts) was to Tulsa of all teams. The only other DD loss came to Villanova. They went 6-3-1 ATS as underdogs.

It's not that Temple is that great defensively; it's also that Belmont is pretty bad at that end of the floor. The Bruins rank an ugly 127th in defensive efficiency, which is a key metric I lean heavily on this time of year. Belmont does shoot the three extremely well (37.4%), but Temple has fared well against such teams, going 8-0 ATS the L2 years vs. teams that shoot at least 37% from behind the arc. I don't think we'll see the usual three-point sharpshooting here from Belmont. They were just 7 of 32 (21.8%) vs. Murray State in the OVC Tourney Final, a potentially bad sign. Temple has an experienced backcourt, led by the AAC's top scorer Shizz Alston Jr. They get the cash. 10* Temple

8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M (6:40 ET): With the exception of North Carolina Central (who plays tomorrow), these are the two worst teams in the entire field of 68. Because of what UMBC did to Virginia LY, we can no longer automatically "write off" a 16 seed's chances, however, odds are that whomever wins here won't be celebrating for long. That's because the winner draws Gonzaga. Neither team here is noted for its defense, but playing in the "big time" figures to have a somewhat drastic impact on the respective offenses. I'll take the Under. 

Farleigh Dickinson is the champion of the NEC (North Eastern Conference). They tied (w/ St. Francis PA) for the regular season title, then beat St. Francis in the NEC Tournament Final. So that's how they got here. But they are 0-5 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of 14 PPG. The Knights do shoot the ball very well from three-point range, 40.3% in fact, which ranks 5th in the entire country! But they also play at a very slow tempo and typically don't throw it up early on in the shot clock. If their perimeter shooting is off here, then it figures to be quite the long night offensively for FDU. 

Conversely, Prairie View A&M will want to speed this game up. The regular season and tournament champs of the SWAC enter the Big Dance on an amazing run, having won 21 of their last 22 games. The Aggies put up some real "eye-popping" numbers in the SWAC Tournament, including dropping 92 on TX Southern in the Final. They've scored at least 81 pts in five of their last six games. But this game is a whole different story against an unfamiliar foe. A&M is actually one of the WORST three-point shooting teams in the entire field, if not country, at 30.8%. But the good news is they do guard the three-point line well, which will come in handy against the jump shooters of FDU. The Aggies rank 31st in the country in 3PT FG% defense and also do a great job at forcing turnovers. My read is that this will not be a typical game - for either side - as it figures to be pretty slow by Prairie View A&M standards while FDU will not be getting off the usual number of three pointers. 8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M