Bryan Power

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Wings finished in last place in the Atlantic Division last season (79 points) and really, it could have been a lot uglier if not for an almost unfathomable 9-0 record in shootouts! But coming off their first non-playoff season in a quarter century, you had to figure they'd improve some and they've started out 4-1 w/ three of the wins coming on the road. But it's not exactly been the most daunting schedule thus far as the last three opponents were all non-playoff teams from a year ago and that included visits to Arizona and Vegas. Though they've had the last two days off, I think their could be a residual effect coming off that long road trip (which took them from Ottawa to Dallas to the desert) and it's a significant step up in class tonight.

Tampa Bay is also 4-1, though most of their games have been at home. That being said, they already own victories against Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Saturday's win over the Blues might have been the first time this high-scoring outfit failed to reach four goals in a game this year, but beating a team that had started 4-0 is nice any way you can get it. Remember that the Lightning are also due for a bounce back up in the Atlantic Division standings after they failed to make the playoffs last season. But that was due to injury as opposed to lack of talent. I would not be surprised - at all - to see the Lightning win the division this year. Meanwhile, the Red Wings would be lucky to even make the playoffs. TB has dominated Detroit the previous two seasons, winning 11 of 14 matchups.

Nikita Kucherov is the player to watch right now for the Lightning as he's scored in all five games. No player has started a season like that since the Sharks' Patrick Marleau five years ago. Andrei Vasilevskiy is firmly entrenched as the starting goalie here (started all five games) and has a solid .911 save percentage. As for Detroit, they've bounced back between Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek. The latter isn't very good and as for the former, I just don't think he'll be able to maintain his current .955 save percentage for much longer. It's interesting that BOTH teams are giving up plenty of shots in the early going. A wide-open game would certainly favor the Lightning, in my estimation. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Houston (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Astros at +1.5. Even at "juiced up" odds, the RL feels like a "safe" value here w/ what is - clearly - the better of the two teams. I say that with all the respect in the world for what the Yankees have done this year as they actually underachieved in the regular season (had 2nd best run differential) and rallied back from a similar 0-2 deficit in the LDS against Cleveland. But, to me, the Astros just seem better in all facets of the game. Behind Dallas Keuchel, they dominated Game 1 (even though the final score was only 2-1) and then won Game 2 by the same score in walkoff fashion. Off B2B one-run wins, Houston will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the +1.5.

Houston is now 7-2 this year vs. the Yankees this season, although the number of runs scored are basically even at 47-43 (Houston's favor). Tonight is obviously a "must win" for the team wearing pinstripes, but as we all know, that doesn't mean they "will" win. Returning to the Bronx would normally be a big advantage for the Yankees as they happen to own baseball's best home run differential at +1.8 rpg. But, unfortunately for them, Houston happens to own the best road run differential in the sport and it's not even close at +1.4 rpg. (only one other team, Cleveland, was above 1.0). The Astros offense even averages more rpg on the road (6.1) than the Yankees do here at home (5.8). As has been been given much attention, the Yankees are striking out A LOT this postseason, including 27x already in this series. Rookie phenom Aaron Judge continues to be the biggest offender w/ 19 in 31 AB's! Meanwhile, Houston's top hitter (the likely MVP Jose Altuve) is batting .565 so far in the postseason. 

CC Sabathia pitched pretty well in both of his LDS starts, but he also can't go deep into games anymore. Just once since the All-Star Break has he made it past the sixth. His 9-0 KW rate in Game 5 vs. Cleveland was tremendous, but it's something that I don't feel is repeatable, especially here against MLB's top lineup. Remember Houston finished the reg season ranked #1 in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Sabathia should feel fortunate to have a 10-3 TSR this year at Yankee Stadium as his ERA/WHIP are 4.20/1.227. The Astros counter w/ Charlie Morton, who may share Sabathia's penchant for abbreviated starts, but he also has a 3.11 ERA his L7 starts, never once allowing more than 3 ER in any start during that span. Sorry Yankees fans, I just don't see any significant edge your team has over the Astros that would justify taking them in this spot. 8* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This AFC South has been incredibly one-sided dating back to when Peyton Manning still played for the Colts. The Titans have lost 11 in a row to Indy, the last win coming back in 2011, which was the year before the Colts drafted Andrew Luck (Manning injured). Going back further, Tennessee is just 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings! They are only 2-9 ATS during the 11-game losing streak. But, 2017 just "feels" like the time for the Titans to start turning this division rivalry around. As we know, it won't be Manning or Luck under center Monday night for the Colts, rather it will be Jacoby Brissett. As for Tennessee, they thankfully get Marcus Mariota back after basically a two-game absence (inj early in Houston game) that went very poorly for the team to say the least. While both teams come in at 2-3 SU, the Titans' scoring differential is much better and that's with the 57-14 loss to the Texans two weeks ago! Lay the points. 

The Colts went out and acquired Brissett immediately after a disastrous 46-9 loss to the Rams in Week 1. He's led them to a 2-2 SU record, but let's put that record in its proper perspective. The wins came against Cleveland and San Francisco, who are a combined 0-12 SU and both came by just a field goal (49ers win required OT) at home. So this team is a lot closer to being winless than they are a viable contender in the division. They're being outgained by a NFL-worst 95.4 yards per game w/ their two previous road games being absolutely atrocious as they were outscored by a combined 92-27. The offensive line struggles to protect Brissett (sacked 14x) and the defense just isn't very good. Really, we're learning just how valuable Andrew Luck has been to this team the last few years as this is a really poor roster overall. 

Tennessee came into this season thinking playoffs, but the Mariota injury has really dampened things. Remember though, with him in the lineup, this team did whip an improved Jacksonville team on the road and beat the Seahawks here at home. Note that if Mariota is unable to go, this play still stands as you'll be able to get a significantly better number. The Titans' defense allowed only 178 yards last week (yet the team still lost!) and I don't see them giving up much here to a Brissett-led offense. The last two games w/ Mariota in at QB, the Titans topped 30 pts both times. This game is a really huge deal for Tennessee as it's not only a rare MNF appearance, but also a very opportune time to snap their long losing streak against a hated divisional foe. 10* Tennessee