Bryan Power

10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. 

Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. 

Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers

8* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Cubs and Dodgers probably feel like they should be leading their respective divisions right now, but both have struggled of late. The Cubs had dropped six of eight before winning 7-1 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Dodgers were just swept in San Diego. But I still like the future outlook for both teams. The Cubs are the only team in the NL Central with a positive YTD run differential. The Dodgers YTD run differential, while taking a hit in recent days, is still among the best in baseball. 

These teams have met before in 2021. The Cubs swept a three-game series where every game went Over the total. Rather than play the revenge angle here (odds are too steep), I’m looking for the Over trend to continue as the Dodgers should rediscover their offense now that they’re back in Chavez Ravine. They scored only seven runs the entire series vs. San Diego, but this is a team that averages 5.2 runs per game at home. I like the matchup against Cubs starter Zack Davies, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.767 WHIP on the road this year. Last time out, Davies allowed eight runs and that was at home. 

Davies will be opposed here by Walker Buehler. It would seem “fashionable” to expect Buehler not to give up many runs. After all, he’s been pretty “lights out” in June, especially the L3 starts. But when he started against the Cubs on 5/5, it ended up being a 6-5 game even with Buehler turning in a quality start. He figures to get plenty of run support this time, so as long as the Cubs score a few, this one should easily surpass the O/U line. 8* Over Cubs/Dodgers

10* Miami (7:10 ET): This is the other “revenge” spot in the three-pack. Miami was swept by Washington back in early May. It has been a very frustrating season for the Marlins when you consider they are in last place in the NL East despite having the division’s second best run differential. They’ve allowed just 13 runs in the L7 games, yet are somehow 2-5! They just dropped a couple home games vs. Toronto, by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, but armed with revenge against a division foe they should break through tonight. 

Washington has the best record in the National League over the L10 games at 9-1. They just won a couple games at Philadelphia, including 13-12 yesterday. Again, that’s almost the same number of runs that Miami pitching has allowed over the L7 games! Both wins in Philly were by one run and the Nationals now have four of those in the last nine games. So they’ve been far from dominant. This is a team that’s been outscored this season and is just 14-18 on the road. Starter Joe Ross has a 2-6 TSR on the road. 

Cody Poteet will look to keep the string of strong Miami pitching performances going on Thursday. He’s pitched only one time at home so far and he didn’t allow any runs. It was seven shutout innings of three hit ball vs. the Mets on 5/23. What the Nats did at the plate yday is not indicative of what you should expect from them. In their previous eight games, they were held to three runs or less five times. The only question mark here is the Marlins offense, but it shouldn’t take much to win this game. 10* Miami

6* Houston (7:10 ET): This is the first of two “revenge” plays that I’ve got in this three-game report. Back in mid-April, one of the more shocking results of this entire MLB season took place as the Tigers swept the Astros in Houston. Given where the two teams are at now, that result makes little sense. Houston comes into tonight as the hottest team in all of baseball. They’ve won 10 in a row and have now outscored their opponents by 135 runs (#1 in MLB) this season. Detroit has won three in a row, but they are 10 games below .500 and have a -62 YTD run differential. The road team should win big today. 

Houston has outscored opponents 81-21 during their 10-game win streak. Four times they’ve scored 10 or more runs. One of those was last night, a 13-0 win in Baltimore. This is the highest scoring team in all of baseball and not only are they averaging 8.1 runs over the L10 games, but also 6.0 rpg on the road for the season. Certainly, the Astros have to be excited to face Jose Urena tonight. Urena has a 13.91 ERA and 2.364 WHIP his last three starts. The last two times Urena has started, the Tigers have lost 15-2 and 11-3. Urena was responsible for 15 of those 26 runs being scored despite pitching only six innings. 

As hot as Houston is at the plate right now, their pitching has been equally impressive. They’ve allowed just 2.1 rpg during the win streak and only one time have they allowed more than three runs. It will be Luis Garcia on the bump tonight and he has a 2.80 ERA. In his last start, Garcia faced the White Sox (a very good team) and held them to just one run in seven innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Over the L7 starts, you’re looking at a 2.01 ERA and 1.041 WHIP and Garcia has 1 ER or less five times. 6* Houston

8* Under Royals/Yankees (1:05 ET): These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are heavily favored to take today’s rubber match after prevailing 6-5 last night. It was 6-5 Kansas City in the opener. One thing that is quite interesting when looking at the Royals’ scoring in this series is that seven of their 11 runs have come in the eighth inning or later. For a Yankees bullpen that’s usually pretty good, it’s uncharacteristic for them to be giving up so many runs. Look for that to stop in this early afternoon start as this will be the lowest scoring game of the three in this series. Take the Under. 

Kansas City will hand the ball to Brad Keller, who admittedly has been struggling of late. He’s 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA/1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. But before that, he had gone 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over a five-start stretch. So there’s definitely some inconsistency here, but I think we’ll be getting the “good Keller” today. The Yankees are only averaging 3.8 runs per game at home this season with a .224 team batting average. In day games, they are averaging only 3.0 rpg while hitting .208 and the Under is 19-10. 

Jameson Taillon, like Keller, is coming off a rough last few starts. But here he’ll be facing a lineup that produces an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road. Again, the Royals have produced a total of four runs in the first seven innings of the two games here in the Bronx. Taillon has been much better this season when pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. 8* Under Royals/Yankees

8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. 

This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. 

Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers