Bryan Power

THIS PLAY IS NOW NO ACTION DUE TO DODGERS PITCHING CHANGE! 

8* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brew Crew are inching closer to a probable Wild Card berth, but would certainly like to host that game, if not win the NL Central outright. To do so, they'll need to perform better against the Pirates. Milwaukee's record against this division rival is just 5-11 this season and they dropped two of three at home to them last week. You might therefore deem it risky to take them here, on the road, with a pitcher who is 0-3 against the Bucs in 2018. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is fresh off a sweep of Kansas City and has won five in a row. However, that sweep of the Royals was not all that impressive considering all three games were decided by one run. I believe the Brewers are set to turn the tables on the Bucs Friday night. 

That 5-11 record for Milwaukee against Pittsburgh includes a 1-4 mark when Jhoulys Chacin is on the mound. But the kicker is that Chacin has actually pitched well in those starts, posting a more than respectable 2.51 ERA. This will be his second straight time facing them as Sunday saw him allow only two runs over five innings. While there's been some concern over the Brewers' offense of late, the Pirates have scored four runs or fewer in six of the last seven games. As I said earlier, that sweep of KC wasn't all that impressive when you consider every game was decided by a run, two of them by scores of 2-1. Remember the Royals are a terrible team too; they are one of the lowest scoring teams in the American League and had to play the series w/o a DH. 

Evaluating Chacin's recent record (0-3 TSR L3 starts) comes w/ the same caveat as his YTD record vs. the Pirates. He's actually pitched well. He's posted a 1.091 WHIP and has given up only four hits total in his last two starts (10 IP). Against Pittsburgh, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his starts. Milwaukee is off a shutout win here (beat Cincinnati 7-0 Wednesday) and is 8-4 this season after blanking their previous opponent. I look for Chacin to outduel Ivan Nova tonight as Nova might be off B2B wins, but he's never won three straight starts all season. Chacin is 9-3 on the road this year and w/ the Brewers being the better team here, this price is justified. 8* Milwaukee

10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points.

So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium.

Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC