Bryan Power

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have some work to do this weekend as for the first time all year, they’ve lost three in a row. They’re still in first place in the NL East, but Mets’ fans don’t want to be reminded about last season when the same thing was the case and they then ceded control of the division to the Braves, who would go on to win the World Series. Fortunately for the Metropolitans, they are at home this weekend, facing the Rangers and have what looks to be a big edge on the mound Friday. It should be a happy “Bobby Bonilla Day” in Queens. 

The Mets are 24-12 at Citi Field, which is the best home record in the National League. Now they did just drop two here to the Astros, but that’s a much better team than Rangers, who will be sending Greg Otto to the mound. Otto gave up six runs in just two innings his last start, continuing a poor year which has seen him post a 6.51 xERA and 5.51 xFIP. He also walks a lot of batters. This Mets’ lineup, which could only manage one run against the Astros and was shutout for just the second time all season on Wednesday, should bounce back here. They are tied for third in all of baseball in runs scored per game.

This also looks to be an excellent matchup for Chris Bassitt, who is already coming off three straight quality starts (with a 0.797 WHIP) and should have an even better ERA than 3.91 this season. Three of the Rangers’ last four series have been against teams rated in the bottom five in my power ratings. So this is a big step up in class and I just cannot see the Mets losing a third straight time at home for the first time all year, given the pitching matchup. Bassitt has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of 15 starts. 6* NY Mets

8* Washington (6:05 ET): In the past, I’ve stated that the Marlins are better than their record, but this is a spot for the Fish. While they did win their last game, before that it was four losses in five games and none of those saw the team score more than three runs. They are likely to struggle again here facing Nationals’ righty Josiah Gray, who is long overdue to get back in the win column. The Nats have lost each of Gray’s last three starts, but he hasn’t factored into any of the decisions. In fact, he has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during that stretch, allowing two runs and 11 hits in 18 innings of work.

I fully expect Gray to handle the Marlins’ lineup on Friday as they are hitting just .228 on the road this season. Now we turn to the Washington offense, which did score seven runs in a loss Wednesday. That result ended a three-game win streak, but the team is still 6-3 its last nine games. They’ll see southpaw Trevor Rogers today. Rogers has been ineffective, posting a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-0 vs. Washington this season, but his TSR is 2-10 against everyone else, so I think the “third time should be the charm” for the Nationals tonight, in terms of facing Rogers.

This is also a revenge game for the home team, who was swept down in Miami last month. They are just 1-8 vs. the Marlins in ‘22, but three of the losses have been by one run and Miami has topped five runs in only three of those games. If Washington can bring the offense tonight, and I believe they will, then this should be an easy win for the home team. Gray did not allow a run in five innings the last time he faced the Marlins. 8* Washington

10* Tampa Bay (3:07 ET): The Rays lost yesterday, 4-1, but that was with a pretty significant disadvantage on the mound as they sent out an “opener” (Matt Wisler) while the Blue Jays had Yusei Kikuchi going. This afternoon, the script has been flipped as Corey Kluber will toe the rubber for the Rays opposite Jose Berrios. The latter has struggled mightily with a 6.43 xERA, second highest among all qualifiers. Meanwhile, Kluber has been pretty solid of late, giving up 3 ER or less in eight straight starts. This is a great value on TB we’re getting here.

The Rays have lost 10 of 15, but nine of those losses have come by one run. Speaking of one-run games, Toronto has a MLB-best 18 one-run victories, which is part of the reason they currently find themselves in second in the loaded AL East. But there’s really not a ton of difference between these two teams, only that the Blue Jays have been able to win a few more close ones. 

Berrios has a 6-0 team start record at home, but that’s pretty much the lone positive about his season. His ERA should be even higher and sure enough regression has begun to set in, as the L3 starts from Berrios have seen him post an 11.19 ERA. He’s allowed 14 runs in his L2 starts, which have seen him last just 6 ⅔ innings. Berrios is also giving up plenty of home runs, seven over his last three starts. Kluber has allowed only nine homers all season. In five career starts vs. Tampa Bay, Berrios is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA. Kluber is better and the Rays also have the edge in the bullpen. 10* Tampa Bay