Bryan Power

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): If you don't defend home ice, then there's a strong likelihood you're not going to move up the standings. That's the dilemma facing the Oilers right now as Connor McDavid and company have dropped B2B games as well as 8 out of their L10 games at Rogers Place. I just played against them here, Sunday, as they lost 7-4 to Carolina. As noted in the analysis, that was a terrible spot for Edmonton as they were coming off a loss the night prior to rival Calgary in the Battle of Alberta. Somehow, despite the struggles at home, the Oilers have been able to stay in the playoff race. But they desperately need to win this final game before the All-Star Break. 

It'll be a far more favorable matchup tonight for Edmonton as they welcome in one of the worst teams in the league. Detroit has just four wins in its previous 19 games and is at the end of a three-game trip through Western Canada. The schedule makers did them no favors by having them go from Calgary to Vancouver and back to Edmonton. The Red Wings lost both games, 6-4 at Calgary and 3-2 at Vancouver, to fall to 8-13-3 on the road and into last place in the Atlantic Division. There's just not much this club does well right now, and they already lost to the Oilers (at home) back in November. 

The power play could prove to the difference maker in this one as Edmonton is 9th in the league w/ the man advantage, converting at a 21.5% rate. Detroit's PP has been brutal of late, including an 0 for 3 showing in Vancouver. You have to think the Oilers are due to start winning some home games. They enter the day just three points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, so getting two points here is a must. Detroit's playoff chances are all but dead at this point as they're facing a 15-point deficit in the standings and clearly looking to rebuild. 8* Edmonton

10* Wichita State (8:00 ET): What a difference a year makes. Last year, right around this time, Wichita State hosted USF and was a 29-point favorite at Koch Arena. They wound up covering that lofty spread in a 95-60 blowout win. Now, a year later, they are getting points from the Bulls in Tampa. While we know it's been a down year for the Shockers, this is a bad line in my opinion. Wichita State is coming off a tough run of games, losing to the top two teams in the American (Houston, Cincinnati) plus an OT defeat at the hands of Temple. Their one win in the last four games came as a short dog, at home though, against UCF last Wednesday. I'm taking the points here. 

South Florida is 12-6 SU overall, but only 2-4 SU in conference play. They are a definite "drop in class" in terms of opponent for Wichita State, who just played the four top teams in the American all in a row. With five losses in its last six games (including one out of conference to VCU), the Shockers will be a desperate team tonight. Then again, four of USF's six losses have come in the last five games. They too had a tough time against the top teams from the American as they've just lost three in a row to Temple, Cincy and Houston. Only one team can get on track here though and I think it's going to be Wichita State.

South Florida shot very poorly Saturday against Houston, leading to a seven-game home win streak coming to an end. As for Wichita State's loss to Cincinnati, that was a close game (five points) before HC Gregg Marshall and freshman Erik Stevenson were both whistled for technical fouls for complaining about the officiating. Given that the Bearcats attempted 35 free throws to the Shockers' seven, maybe they had a right to complain. I thought USF was a bit lucky defensively against Houston as the Cougars didn't shoot the ball particularly well either. That came after the Bulls allowed B2B 82-point games to their two previous opponents. I'm on Wichita State here. 10* Wichita State 

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): Maybe I should have called this as an "oddsmakers trap" as opposed to an "error." Because I think most would be surprised to see a team w/ an unbeaten conference record (Bowling Green) getting points from a team w/ a losing record (like 8-10 Eastern Michigan). But the bottom line is that BG is a pretty fraudulent group, despite being 5-0 SU in MAC play. Granted, I tried fading them over the weekend and that certainly didn't work out as the Falcons blew out Western Michigan. But that game was also at home where they're now 10-0 SU on the year. The road has been a different story and tonight's game in Ypsilanti will be their 1st conference loss of the year.

Eastern Michigan can claim a similar home vs. road dichotomy. They're a solid 7-3 SU at home this year, but just 1-7 on the road. They just lost at Buffalo over the weekend by 12, but covered the spread. As you probably know, the Bulls are the MAC's other unbeaten, but certainly far stronger than Bowling Green. Though they've lost twice to Buffalo this month, Eastern Michigan should hold its head high knowing they were 2-0 ATS vs. the #14 team in the country. The MAC slate will only get much easier from here and it should be noted that four of the Eagles' 10 losses this year have come against teams currently ranked in the top 15. Two others were to Power 5 schools. 

Bowling Green has lost five of the seven "true" road games it has played this year. They might be a perfect 5-0 ATS in January and 8-0 ATS since December 8th, but Eastern Michigan happens to be riding its own 4-game ATS win streak. The Falcons have played an incredibly easy schedule to this point and might already be looking ahead to a showdown (at home) vs. Buffalo that takes place next week. I am simply not a believer in this team and Eastern Michigan isn't going to shoot only 28% from the field in this game like Western Michigan did vs. BG on Saturday. Lay the short number. 8* Eastern Michigan 

10* Over Kings/Raptors (7:05 ET): Sacramento is a team that I remain highly skeptical of, moving forward. The fact that they are over .500 has to be considered a major shocker at this point as coming into the year, it was expected to be them and Phoenix at the bottom of the Western Conference. But although the Kings are 24-23 SU on the year, they do happen to own the West's third worst overall point differential, a sign that regression could be forthcoming. Last night was certainly a step in the WRONG direction as they were blown out in Brooklyn, 123-94.

Things certainly don't get any easier for the Kings tonight as they must head north of the border to play Toronto. The Raptors are battling the Bucks for the top spot in the Eastern Conference right now w/ the two teams tied for first (Milwaukee technically percentage points ahead). Toronto has been a dominant team on its home floor, going 20-4 straight up while averaging 115.4 PPG. This team has been doing plenty of scoring lately, although some of that is tied to a 140-138 win over Washington that went to double overtime. They are top 7 in offensive efficiency, for the year, however. They'll also be getting Kawhi Leonard back (missed L2 games) tonight.

I've been through this before, but the fact Sacramento gives up so many points will ultimately be their undoing. They are bottom five in the league in PPG allowed (115.2) and that number gets even worse on the road. Last night, they allowed 123 points to a Nets team that is nowhere near what Toronto is offensively. However, it was still the eighth straight Kings game that stayed Under the total as they shot just 41.9% from the field. They should improve on that number tonight and while the number is high, I expect this game to go Over the total. (The total was even higher when these teams met in Sacramento earlier in the season). The Kings are 23-12 Over as underdogs this season, including 13-4 when on the road. Such a streak of Unders is a bit perplexing when you consider how bad Sacramento is defensively. 10* Over Kings/Raptors