Art Aronson

10* Jays runline (ASSASSIN)

After getting blown out in yesterday's series opener by a score of 12-2, we're expecting Toronto to be much more competitive here on Saturday. It was the Jays' fourth straight loss. It was LA's fifth straight win. Tyler Glasnow is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Dodgers, while Yusei Kikuchi is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA for the Jays. We expect Kikuchi to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that it's the undervalued home dog that does indeed become the savvy wager in our estimation; while the outright is clearly possible, our official call is Toronton the runline option!

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10* Lightning (PLAYOFF PAY-OFF)

Florida is no longer the red-headed step-child in this in-state rivarly, as the Lightning are now on the ropes down 0-3. The hardest game to in a seven games series is the fourth one though, and in our opinion, the Panthers are finally poised for a letdown here. Note that Tampa is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Tampa is still 25-12-4-1 at home this year. We say there's no way the Bolts get swept in this series. Florida packs up the tents early we're expecting, and then wraps this one up at home in Game 5; the play is Tampa!

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10* OVER Nuggets/Lakers (BEST OF BEST)

The first three games of this series have fallen below the number, as the Lakers have fallen apart in the second half of each contest so far. At this point, even if LA does win Game 4, the Lakers would then just clearly be delaying the inevitable. That said, after the first three games all going "under," we're finally expecting this Game 4 to go "over!" Note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA's bench has been shutdown, but with the home side fighting tooth and nail like we suspect to avoid the sweep, this faster-paced affair will indeed fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN)

We feel that home floor advantage will prove to be just that for the 0-2 Pelicans finally here on Saturday afternoon. An 0-3 hole would be too big to climb out of obviously, so this is the biggest game of the year for New Orleans. OKC was 24-17 on the road this year, while New Orleans was 22-20 at home. Regardless, it's significant to note that the Pelicans are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Yes, Zion Williamson is out for this series, but CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are going to respond in our opinion. There's no way the Pels are getting swept, as really the Thunder have been anything but impressive to us over these first two games. We just expected more. The Pels shoot over 37 percent from range at home, and we expect that to come into play here as well; grab as many points as you can here in Game 3, the play is on New Orleans!

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10* FC Cincinnati (MLS GOW)

Home field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. FC Cincinnati is 4-2 and in our estimation, it could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot. It just snapped a three-game winless streak with a convincing 2-1 win at Atlanta and we say that momentum gets carried over here at home. Colorado is also 4-2, but after two straight victories, a predictable letdown seems imminent here to us in this difficult road venue. And with a game at NYCFC up next, it's also a "look ahead" for the visitors; lay the price with confidence, the play is FC Cincinnati!

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