Art Aronson

This is an 8* on the CUBS

From June 25th until July 6th, the Cubs lost 11 straight games. That losing streak really took them out of the NL Central race. They are now looking at a nine game deficit to make up in the division and it’s just as large if they want to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. Too bad that they can’t play Arizona every day then. Since ending that 11-game losing streak, the Cubs have won six times. Three of those wins were versus the Diamondbacks. Last night they won 8-3, a game they homered three times and led 7-0 when starter Zach Davies exited. In case you needed to be reminded, Arizona is a horrible baseball team. At 30-69, they have the worst overall record. They’ve also been outscored by 150 runs. The road has seen them go 11-39 and lose 31 of their last 33 games! We’ve got to play against them at this price. Especially with it being a day game, a situation that Arizona is 10-23 this year. The Cubs are used to day games. Starting today will be Alec Mills, who has a solid 3.45 ERA in six starts since becoming a regular part of the rotation. For Arizona, Merrill Kelly is probably their best starter. But even he has a 3-7 TSR away from home and a 5.33 ERA as well. The Cubs are 29-17 at home. How can we not? Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 6* on ARCE

Julio Arce is dropping down to bantamweight for this fight against Andre Ewell. While Arce did lose two of his previous three fights, both losses were by split decision. He’s 8-2 in his last 10 fights with five wins coming by submission or KO. Arce is an exciting fighter with a far more diverse skill set than tonight’s opposition. Ewell is 3-3 in his last six fights and has been stopped twice. He was also beaten by decision against Chris Guttierez earlier in 2021. Arce coming off a 20-month layoff is a bit of a concern, however he also is going to have the edge in size and strength based on him dropping down a weight class. We’re taking Arce. Play on ARCE

This is a 10* on UNDER

If you haven’t been paying close attention, the Rockies’ record against the Dodgers this year is as poor as you’d expect it to be. It’s 3-8 and that’s after a 9-6 win yesterday, a game that went 10 innings. The Dodgers’ bullpen has seemingly become a bit of an issue as it gave up six runs in the last three innings yesterday, three of them in the 10th. The Dodgers are now 1-10 in extra innings this year. That means 58-30 if they wrap things up in the usual nine. They probably will do that today. It is a three-game losing streak with blown save opportunities in every game. But Colorado is just not a good road team. Yesterday was only the 10th road win of the season. They are 2-14 at +175 or higher. No, we aren’t playing the money line though. Take the Under in this one as Tony Gonsolin (2.80 ERA in seven starts) should have no problem taking care of a Colorado lineup that is averaging 3.0 runs on the road. The Dodgers are facing Kyle Freeland whose last five starts have all gone Under. The last one was vs. the Dodgers and he only gave up three runs in six innings. Those last five starts have seen him allow only seven runs in 28 innings. Expect a low-scoring affair tonight at Chavez Ravine. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Red Sox season-long domination of the Yankees continued Friday night with a 6-2 win at Fenway Park. Boston is now 9-2 overall vs. their hated rival in 2021, 5-0 at home. This after going 6-23 against them the previous two years. This afternoon they will face Jameson Taillon for the third time. The last one did not go well as Taillon held them to just four hits in 5.3 innings and did not give up a run. Taillon has been much better recently with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. But he’s still averaging fewer than five innings per outing this season. He has a 7.20 ERA on the road where all seven starts have gone Over the total. The Red Sox offense has been one of the big surprises in baseball this season, averaging 5.1 runs/game and 5.4 at Fenway. We look for them to have a lot more success facing Taillon today than they did last weekend. Nathan Eovaldi is starting for Boston on Saturday. This will be the fourth time he’s faced New York in 2021, all of the starts coming since June 4th. So the Yankees definitely know him well. They’ve had very little success vs. Eovaldi mind you, but we think they’ll score enough to help get this one Over the number. The Over is 13-6-1 the past 20 times NY has been a dog. Play on OVER

AAA