Michael Alexander

Rating: 5 Units

MLB Total of the Month

Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Cahill (0-1, 8.00 ERA) is scheduled to face Milwaukee left-hander Brett Anderson (1-1, 4.50 ERA).  Consider that the over is 21-8-2 in Pirates last 31 during game 2 of a series, 34-15-2 in Pirates last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 36-17-1 in Pirates last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating; 4 Units

The Bulls lost the most recent meeting with the Cavs 103-94 on March 24. Without Zach Lavine on the floor for the Bulls, the Cavaliers, whose 111.1 ppg allowed ranks #11 in scoring defense, have an easier time of it on that end of the floor. Last night, Chicago overcompensated in attempting to protect the paint and were deficient about getting out on Memphis’ three-point shooters. Live and learn, practice makes perfect, and these games are often practices. In Cleveland, Chicago faces an opponent that takes and makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. You don’t even have to get out after them much on the perimeter. They’re not going there often and when they do, their 33.8% make rate is #29 in a 30-team league.

Rating: 2 Units

Second of back-to-backs, third game in four days for the Jazz, whose leading scorer Donovan Mitchell was helped off the floor during yesterday’s win/no-cover vs. Indiana with an ankle sprain. But if Mitchell is out, then the Lakers will still be spotting the Jazz one 20+ ppg scorer with the Lebron/Lebrow double-injury dose. L.A. is just a 6-9 SU team since Lebron made it two guys down, and the Jazz have proven that they can win and cover games without Mitchell during the regular season. Also, the Lakers are a mere 3-11 SU as the underdog, losing the games they are supposed to lose -- usually by more than the spread

Rating: 2 Units

Kelly Oubre is iffy here with a sore right wrist. He has been averaging 15 a game for the Warriors this season. Both of these teams have been playing well. Golden State has won 4 in a row but only one of the wins could be considered a quality victory. The quality win was against Denver, who lost Jamal Murray for the season late in the game. The three wins during this span came against teams that were at least 15 games below .500. Boston is seeking their fourth win in a row. During this span they won a pair of close games and also blew out Denver by 18 points. When the Celts beat the Warriors early in the season they controlled the glass and after losing the first quarter by 11 points, Boston swept the other 3 stanzas.

Rating: 2 Units

After a strong start the Astros have hit the skids, losing their last six in a row (-$525 overall). The Mariners are top the AL West having won 7 of their last 10 (+$650) and they'll catch a generous underdog price vs. Zack Greinke, who's been average at best in  three starts so far (4.08 ERA). Seattle is averaging close to 5.0 runs per game at the plate, so look for them to stay hot when they square off against Houston tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Shortly after signing his first oversized contract, Jose Quintana became a less than ordinary pitcher but Joe Maddon wanted his ex-Cub on the Angels. Whatever. Quintana has a 16.20 ERA in his two starts for the Angels, whose own loyalties to the guy who set their ‘rookie record for wins!’ (another bull stat and ‘record’, because who has the record for most wins by second- or third-year pitchers? Hmm?) finally ended in 2020 when they non-tendered Matt Shoemaker and he signed with the Blue Jays, who’ve been desperate for pitching but didn’t re-sign him. The Twins did, and Shoemaker has proven nothing other than he can still own Detroit, his hometown team. Mike Trout and his Angels teammates — averaging 6.1 runs per game at home — should be happy to see the guy who couldn’t win many games for them after his rookie season. ‘Hey, let’s make this guy with the ridiculous beard pay for stinking it up for us!’ Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons is a great fielder, but only when he’s on the field. He hasn’t been, sentenced to isolation by the virus police. We’ll take a few unearned runs if that’s what it comes down to.

Rating: 2 Units

Big Game Darvish, he is not. Yu Darvish spent a half season with the Dodgers and couldn’t cut it in the clutch. The Dodgers who’ve faced him since are only
2-for-27, a terrible .042 Batting Average, but the sample is small and he’s in a match-up against Clayton Kershaw. The Padres are coming off a loss in the first game of this series in which they used 9 relief pitchers. Hello? They fancy themselves as worthy challengers to the Dodgers in the NL West, and for the eventual National League pennant. But they’ve lost 10 of the last 14 games against L.A. and put too much pressure on themselves. Kershaw won’t be available for as small a lay as this very often. Hardly ever. Gotta get him now, before he goes on the injury list because of his shoulder, elbow, forearm, back, blister, neck, finger, or…

Rating: 2 Units

The run sequence for the Indians in their last five games is now: 3, 2, 0, 4, 3 after last night’s 10-3 defeat. The Reds’ run sequence in their home ballpark is 6, 9, 12, 5, 14, 11, 10. They’ve scored more runs in every single home game than the Indians have in any of their last five games. The Reds continue to be the top-hitting home team in MLB, with a .321 batting average at — what’s it called this year? — oh, still Great American Ball Park. That’s nice. The Indians haven’t faced Sonny Gray since he was struggling for the Yankees in 2018, and he beat them 5-2. Tristan McKenzie has made it to the fourth inning in his two starts for the Indians, in 4-3 and 3-0 losses to the Royals and White Sox. Like Logan Allen last night, they’re asking him to retire a bunch of the hottest hitting home team hitters in the game right now, backed by what stacks up as less than average run support.

Rating: 2 Units

The Philadelphia Flyers' chances of earning a playoff spot have been reduced significantly this week, but thanks to a shootout victory in Pittsburgh on Thursday they retain a glimmer of hope heading into this afternoons game against the visiting Washington Capitals. The Flyers have gained only two of a possible six points in their past three games and sit comfortably behind the Boston Bruins for the final spot in the East with 13 games remaining. Goaltender Carter Hart, who has struggled immensely over the past few weeks, made 31 saves -- 13 in the third period and overtime in the 2-1 shootout triumph over the Penguins. It was Hart's first win eight starts. Washington is 4-1-0 against Philadelphia this season.