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#261 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON LA Chargers +2.5 at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big home wins – Chargers beat Browns 47-42, Ravens MNF comeback over the Colts. Much is made of Lamar Jackson and his play this season – but Justin Herbert has the 4th best QBR in the NFL (ahead of Tom Brady) 13 TD’s to 3 INT’s. The Chargers strength offensively is throwing the football with the 3rd best passing offense in the league at 303PYPG. The Ravens pass defense is 29th in the NFL allowing 296PYPG. Two solid offenses but the key difference between these two teams though comes down to defense. Defensively the Chargers have an edge. Overall, the Chargers rank 19th in yards allowed per game at 371 whereas the Ravens give up 390YPG which ranks 24th. On paper those defensive numbers look fairly close however the Chargers have faced three offenses in the top 6 in terms of DVOA or efficiency while Baltimore on the other hand has faced 4 offenses that rank 18th or worse in DVOA and yet they have worse defensive numbers. The Chargers have covered 8 of their last 9 games with 4 straight covers on the road, 3 of which they won outright. Digging deeper the Chargers are 37-17 ATS their last 54 as a road dog. Bet LA Chargers
Two teams off of losses. But according to my power rankings and projections the superior advantage resides with Andy Reid and company.
WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 or more points.
KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-7 ATS L/38 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, with a losing record.are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 31-1 L/10 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 which qualify on a ATS line.
Play on Kansas City -
Projected score: KC 34 Washington 20
Play - Detroit Lions (Game 264).
Edges - Lions: 4-0 ATS when coming off a division away game … Bengals: 2-20-1 SU in last twenty-three away games, and 4-9-1 ATS as road favorites versus winless foes … We recommend a 1* play on Detroit. Thank you and good luck as always.
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NFL Free Pick - LA Chargers at Baltimore
Baltimore's edge in this contest is on the ground, as they rush the ball for 149 yards per game, while the Chargers allow a league worst 158 rushing yards per game. Herbert and the rest of L.A.'s potent offense will have its hands full against what is normally one of the top defenses in the NFL in Baltimore. The Ravens (4-1) are holding opponents to 23.4 points per contest, with wins this season over AFC West opponents Kansas City and Denver. The only loss this season for Baltimore was a season-opening setback on the road in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders. Offensively, do-everything quarterback Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to a 19-point comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts this past Monday. Jackson finished with a career-high 442 passing yards and four touchdowns, completing 37 of 43 attempts and earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for his effort. Consider that L.A. is just 1-7 ATS in games before its bye week.
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Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 10-17-21
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO (1 PM EST)
Play On: GREEN BAY -6
The Green Bay Packers travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on Sunday afternoon. Green Bay comes in with a 4-1 record while Chicago is 3-2 on the season. Green Bay is averaging 247 yards per game passing and 347.6 total yards per game this year. Chicago is averaging only 113.2 passing yards per game and 240 total yards per game this season. After a season opening embarrassing loss to New Orleans, Green Bay is 3-0 their last 3 games overall scoring 27.3 points per game. They are scoring 35 points per game in division play so far this season. Some more trends to look at are Green Bay is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after a SU win. Green Bay is 6-2 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Chicago is 5-11 ATS last 16 games against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 4-9 ATS last 13 games after an ATS win. Chicago is 3-7 ATS last 10 games against the NFC North. The favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings overall in this series. Green Bay is 24-6 SU and 22-8 ATS last 30 meetings at Chicago including 2-0 SU and ATS the past 3 years. Green Bay is 20-7 ATS last 27 meetings overall in this series. Aaron Rodgers is 20-5 SU lifetime vs the Bears where he has 55 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a nice 107.2 passer rating. Chicago offense will be shut down here and Rodgers will have another big day leading the Packers to the win in this one. We'll recommend a small play on Green Bay today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Rocky Atkinson has a TOP RATED 10* NFL MONSTER for Sunday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 339-255 57% OVERALL run over his last 615 picks! Join the same handicapper that has made $1,000/game bettors $61,580 since December 07, 2018! Rocketman is documented hitting 70% with all NFL picks this year!
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R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 10-17-21
OVER 45 Minnesota/Carolina
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Sunday card loaded with Executive Level Tier Side, NFC Total of the Year, Sunday night Football, Game 2 LCS and Soccer. Comp Play below
The NFL Comp play for Sunday is on Chicago plus the points at 1:00 eastern. The Bears have covered 14 of 20 as a home dog. The Packers are in a play against System pertaining to teams who have won 4 or more straight and lost on the road prior to that streak. The Packers have failed to cover the last 6 in week 6 of the season. The Bears defense should keep this game close and Fields can get out of the pocket here and make some plays. This should be a good game here. On Sunday we have the NFC Total of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the Sunday night NFL, Game 2 N.L.C.S and Soccer. Jump on and end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Look for the Bears to get the cover. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
My free play is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET.
Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!).
QB David Carr got off to an excellent start but had his worst effort of the season at home vs the Bears, throwing for just 206 yards without a TD and one INT. RB Jacobs, off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, has not been healthy and last week had just 48 yards on 15 carries. The Raiders are averaging only 78.6 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th. Carr had been playing VERY well before last Sunday, averaging around 350 YPG with eight TDs and three INTs. TE Waller is tied for the team lead (28 catches) with WR Renfro, while WRs Ruggs 17 catches / 20.5 YPC) and Edwards (13 catches / 18.2 YPC) can 'stretch' the field. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 24.0 PPG.
Denver has found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who is completing 68.8% for 1,180 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 106.1). Gordon (282 yards / 4.7 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (247 yards / 4.2 YPC / one TD) give Denver a decent running game (118.6 YPG ranks 12th), while WRs Sutton (25 catches / 15.1 YPC) and Patrick (22 catches / 13.7 YPC) are solid at WR. TE Fant adds 21 receptions and two TDs The Denver defense is much improved, holding opponents to 15.2 PPG (2nd) on 292.4 YPG (3rd0.
Of course, 'the elephant in the room' is the resignation of Jon Gruden (you just MAY have heard!). The Raiders are having to deal with the fall out of that fiasco and I think the organization will rally on the field this weekend. These types of situations either go one of two ways, as the team will rally, or fall flat on its face. I believe Derek Carr will step up here, off not just one, but two subpar performances. He has passed for a total of 402 yards in the last two weeks, 33 yards fewer than he had in the season opener. The Broncos are on a similar slide after starting the year with three wins. They, too, have struggled to find consistency on offense, particularly on third downs where they have gone 5-for-26 over the past two games.
I like betting on motivated teams, and there's no question in my mind that the Raiders will be HIGHLY motivated here. "Just win, baby!'
Mikey Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 10-17-21
LA Rams -8
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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Rams -10.5
I don't normally lay double-digits in the NFL. But I'm willing to Sunday with the Los Angeles Rams over the New York Giants for a number of reasons. For starters, the Rams come in on extra rest after beating the Seahawks 26-17 Thursday. They will be the fresher, more prepared team.
That's especially the case with all the injuries the Giants are dealing with right now. RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golloday are out. QB Daniel Jones, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton, WR Kedarius Toney and S Jabril Peppers are all questionable. In all, they have 18 players out and another 6 questionable. They are a mash unit right now.
The Giants are coming off a 20-44 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys in which they gave up 515 total yards. They are now giving up 409 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. The Rams can pretty much name the score behind an offense that is averaging 28.2 points per game, 408.2 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.
The Rams are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 27 or more points per game. Los Angeles is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. NFC opponents. New York is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Giants are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as home underdogs. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Rams Sunday.
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Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Green Bay Packers -4
The Key: The Green Bay Packers have owned the Chicago Bears. They have gone 9-1 SU in the last 10 matchups and have won each of the last 4 matchups by 7 points or more, including blowout wins by 16 and 21 points in their 2 matchups last year. The Packers are going to get their points, and I just don't think Justin Fields and the Bears can keep up. The Bears are averaging just 224 YPG in their last 3 games with Fields as their starter and it's not like it has come against good defenses as they have faced the Browns, Lions and Raiders. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Green Bay is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 matchups. The Packers are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 matchups in Chicago. Take Green Bay.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Baltimore Ravens -3
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off three straight huge wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. It's going to be hard for them to keep it going against the Baltimore Ravens this weekend. This is a very bad matchup for the Chargers. They are the worst team in the NFL at defending the run, giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. The Ravens are a run-heavy team that averages 149 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Chargers gave up 230 rushing yards to the Browns last week and have allowed 186 or more three times. Los Angeles is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points last game. Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Give me the Ravens.
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Chiefs vs Football Team Free Pick October 17, 2021
The Chiefs have burned their against the spread backers on the regular for quite some time (3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall), but now they've also dropped three of their last four straight up. They have the worst scoring defense in the NFL and are coming into the week 31st in total defense allowing 437 yards per game. Washington is also going through a rough patch, but I expect to see a reaction after taking a 33-22 home loss to New Orleans last week. Football Team are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
Free pick on Washington.
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Kansas City is coming off a blowout loss against the Bills Monday night to fall to 2-3 on the season and this could already be a make or break game for the Chiefs. They scored only 20 points which was a season low but that came against the top ranked defense in the NFL. Still, they are ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 5 in scoring offense and have a great opportunity to get back on track here. Patrick Mahomes has not been the same quarterback we have come accustomed to the last few years and while he has had some spectacular games, he has two games where his passer rating was 70.9 and 81.6. The Washington defense was supposed to carry the team this season but it has been dreadful so far this season as it is ranked No. 27 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. It is 2-3 with the two wins coming against the Giants and Falcons by a combined five points. Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on Road favorites off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) since 1983. Play (257) Kansas City Chiefs
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Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 10-17-21
Minnesota -2 1/2
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DMack's Free Play for Sunday, October 17, 2021 is on the Chiefs/WFT OVER
The Chiefs were just embarrassed at home by Buffalo and will be in a foul mood here. Still want no part of Kansas City's 1-11-1 run as a favorite so we'll look immediately at the total. KC has lost three of four, giving up 101 points, and committing 11 turnovers since the last time they forced one, themselves. The Chiefs have 18 plays of 20+ yards, they've given up a whopping 28 themselves on defense. The WFT has given up 33.8 ppg. in their L4, all of which went over the total. This will probably be a good one to watch where the first one to 40 wins. Play the OVER.
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Sunday’s NFL FREE WINNER: Dallas Cowboys
1:25 pm pst.
Sports fans, there is no possible way Mac Jones and the pedestrian New England offense can keep pace with Dak Prescott and the Dallas “O”. The Patriots are accounting for a mere, 19.2 PPG. They got a win last week against Houston. But some might argue there were some very questionable calls that went their way. Prescott, over the last three outings has tossed 10 TD’s and just one INT. Why you ask? Well guys, the backfield of Elliott and Pollard have teamed up to be quite the tandem of ball-carriers, keeping defenses honest and allowing their QB to open up the passing game. Granted, the Cowboys “D” is a work in progress. But, when your offense is dominating the clock and controlling the tempo, it makes it tough for opposing offenses to get into a rhythm. Not that the Patriots have what it takes to get into that rhythm. After this game, the Dallas schedule gets significantly tougher. They need all the wins they can get right now. Dallas gets another win and cover. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.
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L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants 1:00 ET
Giants (+) over Rams- The line has dropped 2-points from it's opener and it is probably because New York's QB Daniel Jones has returned to practice (although with limited reps). But, the Giants are still decimated with injuries and will be without Saquon Barkley, Kenny Galladay and a slew of others so this line move has me perplexed. It just might be that this trip to the East coast is just a mere distraction for LA and they may not be taking the Jints seriously. Anyway the price is too inviting to lay so I'll root root root for the home team. Take the GIANTS!
FREE PICK: Los Angeles Rams -9
You aren't going to make a profit long-term betting a lot of big road favorites, but I just can't help myself with the Rams as a mere 9-point favorite at the Giants on Sunday. I just don't know how New York can make a game of it with all the injuries they are dealing with.
There's a good chance starting quarterback Daniel Jones will be cleared to play after leaving last week's game against the Cowboys with a concussion, but he's got a bunch of backups to work with. Giant will be without starting running back Saquon Barkley and one of their top wide outs in Kenny Golladay. They also don't figure to have emerging rookie wideout Kadarius Toney, who left their last game with an ankle injury. Wide outs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are also both questionable to play. Same goes for starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and left guard Ben Bredeson.
How in the world are the Giants going to generate enough offense here to keep pace with Matthew Stafford and that potent Rams offense? Keep in mind New York's defense has regressed a ton from last year. They are giving up 27.8 ppg, 409 ypg and 6.3 yards/play.
Giants are just 8-20 ATS last 28 off a road blowout loss by 21 or more points, while the Rams have covered 21 of their last 30 vs fellow NFC opponents. LA is also 17-5 ATS last 22 on the road vs bad defensive teams that are giving up 27 or more points/game. Give me Rams -9!
This is a free play on Denver.
After winning three straight to start the season, the Broncos have lost back to back games. They look to get back on track, and a home game against a troubled Raiders team looks like a good spot to do just that. John Gruden is out as head coach, and you have to wonder how the players are going to respond to that. I look back to 2017 when Dererk Carr chose to stand for the National Anthem while many of his teammates chose to kneel. After Carr was sacked four times in a loss to Washington on Monday Night Football, the media started asking if his offensive line was tanking on purpose. One of his offensive linemen was quoted saying: “if he wants to stand alone, he can stand alone on the field.” While most of the players involved in the alleged incident are no longer with the Raiders, a similar situation could arise. "A house divided against itself can not stand" - Abraham Lincoln. The Broncos are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.