Sean Murphy

My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this MAAC matchup on Thursday. These two teams had much different results earlier this week as Marist dropped a 68-55 decision at Merrimack while Siena rolled to an 85-77 victory over Fairfield. The Saints have shot extraordinarily well over their last two contests, connecting on 61-of-103 field goal attempts. They'll run into a tough opponent here, however, noting that Marist has limited an incredible eight straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Red Foxes made good on just 17-of-52 field goal attempts on Monday against Merrimack. Those type of outlier performances have been there this season but we've generally seen Marist bounce back offensively. It was held to 18 made field goals in a 69-59 loss at Saint Peter's back on January 2nd but followed it up with a 31-of-68 shooting effort in an 83-38 rout of Iona two nights later. Finally, we'll note that while Siena has posted the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Marist has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Marist (8*).

My selection is on Florida Gulf Coast plus the points over Austin Peay at 1 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with Florida Gulf Coast in this revenge spot on Thursday. The Eagles were 'upset' 82-71 at home against Austin Peay earlier this month. The Governors shot the lights out (14-of-31) from three-point range in that game and also held a decisive edge in terms of free throw attempts, something that will be difficult to replicate on Thursday. While Austin Peay does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Florida Gulf Coast has faced the more difficult schedule. I like the consistency the Eagles have shown offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 28 or more field goals in nine of their last 12 games. On the flip side, they've held five straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Governors have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 26, 26, 28 and 31 field goals. We'll call for FGCU to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Florida Gulf Coast (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Penguins skated to a comfortable 4-1 win in Calgary last night, marking their second straight victory to open their road trip. Success away from home is nothing new for Pittsburgh this season as it checks in 14-7-4 while averaging 3.2 goals per contest. Entering Thursday's game, the Pens have produced a whopping 19 goals over their last four. The Oilers are giving up 3.3 goals per game on home ice this season but producing 3.6. We'll call for Edmonton to bounce back offensively in this game after it was held to a single goal in an overtime loss against the Devils two nights ago. The Oilers had scored 11 goals in posting consecutive victories prior to that setback. Note that this will be the second and final regular season matchup between these two teams this season after the Oilers skated to a 6-4 win in Pittsburgh back on December 16th. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

We've seen a wide range of outcomes in games involving the Jazz lately. They're coming off an 'upset' victory as double-digit underdogs at home against the Timberwolves two nights ago but I look for them to fall well short as they host the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio figures to be in a foul mood after suffering a 111-106 loss in Houston on Tuesday. >That marked the Spurs third straight ATS loss. They've experienced only one four-game ATS losing skid all season and that came back in early November. Look for San Antonio to bounce back in this spot. Take San Antonio (8*).

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

I can understand why bettors would be a little nervous to back the Warriors. After all they lost Jimmy Butler to injury on Monday before getting blown out at home against the Raptors on Tuesday. We won with Toronto in that spot but we'll go the other way and back Golden State as it begins its four-game road trip on Thursday in Dallas. The Mavericks have had a couple of days off to pat themselves on the back following three straight victories including an 'upset' win as double-digit underdogs in New York on Monday. Look for the Warriors to bring Dallas back to Earth in this spot. Take Golden State (8*).

Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

Public perception would tell you that the Magic are the vastly superior team in this matchup but it certainly hasn't played out that way from an ATS perspective over the last couple of months. The Hornets have been the far better bet since the beginning of December and I think they're catching too many points in this spot on Thursday. Yes, Charlotte played last night. It was never really all that competitive as it found itself in a bad spot against a good Cavaliers team looking to bounce back. The Magic enter this game off a three-day layoff following their two-game trip to Europe. Noting that Orlando is just 6-16 ATS over its last 22 contests, I think it will be hard-pressed to win this game, let alone by margin. Take Charlotte.

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My selection is on Idaho State plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Idaho State on Thursday as it looks to rebound following an 'upset' loss at home against Eastern Washington on Saturday. The Bengals were in a clear letdown spot in that game as they were fresh off consecutive wins over Northern Arizona and Idaho and playing on just one day of rest. There's not much at all separating these two teams in terms of overall records or strength of schedule (Idaho State has faced the slightly more difficult schedule by most metrics). I like the Bengals ability to limit possessions in an underdog role. Note that Idaho State has held four straight and 10 of its last 11 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. On the flip side, the Bengals figure to be afforded their share of scoring opportunities against a Montana State team that has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The Bobcats have been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Take Idaho State (8*).