Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While the CFL season is off to a high-scoring start through 4+ weeks, the Argonauts actually check in sporting a 1-3 o/u record. I think we're in for another relatively low-scoring contest featuring Toronto on Friday as it hosts provincial rival Hamilton. Neither team has gotten anything going on the ground this season. Any offensive success the Argos and Tiger-Cats have had has come through the air, and thanks to their respective defenses forcing turnovers. On a positive note, both offenses have taken care of the football lately. The Ti-Cats have turned the ball over just twice in three games while the Argos, after committing five turnovers in their first two contests, have turned it over only twice in their last two games. The pointspread indicates a tightly-contested affair and with that in mind, I don't see a shootout developing between these two teams. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Orioles have been playing better baseball lately but will enter this series riding a two-game losing streak after dropping back-to-back games in Texas. We'll back them with an insurance run on Friday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Spencer Strider. Morton has quietly turned things around and Baltimore has gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line, winning five of those games outright. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time Morton allowed more than three earned runs. Spencer Strider has been solid for the Braves but I think a lack of run support could bite him here. Note that Atlanta ranks 21st in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, Baltimore checks in fourth and third, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Friday.

The Twins return home looking to regain their footing after a tough series in Miami. I like their chances of bouncing back on Friday as they send Chris Paddack to the hill against Zack Littell of the Rays. Littell has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park this season and draws a tough matchup here. While Target Field isn't known as a hitter's park, it can play that way at times, and I believe this is one of those days with the temperature expected to settle out in the low-90's along with a considerable breeze blowing out to left field. The Rays have lost three of Littell's last four starts and he owns an undesirable 5.11 FIP on the season. I also think Tampa Bay can help this total along against Paddack. The Twins right-hander has given up 19 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work over his last four starts and owns a 4.47 FIP on the season. The Rays check in ranked ninth in the majors in weighted on base average and fourth in isolated power over the last seven days. Neither bullpen has lived up to expectations this season. The Rays have posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road while the Twins have recorded a 5.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home, notably blowing seven saves along the way. Take the over (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 2:20 pm et on Friday.

While it's a holiday Friday, the Cubs are certainly used to matinee weekday affairs at Wrigley Field. I like their chances of keeping it rolling against the reeling Cardinals on Friday. St. Louis couldn't get anything going offensively in Pittsburgh earlier this week and should be in tough in this matchup as well. Colin Rea will take the ball for Chicago. His overall numbers aren't great but he's been solid in two of his last three outings and the Cubs have won four of his last five trips to the hill with three of those victories coming by four or more runs. Miles Mikolas counters for St. Louis. The Cards went 2-3 in his five June starts. They did win his most recent outing but he was tagged for six earned runs in just four innings in that contest in Cleveland. Both bullpens have been sharp lately but the Cubs relief corps has been elite with a 0.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last week. Take Chicago.

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Friday.

While Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia has been known as a predominantly hitter's park over the years, that hasn't necessarily been the case here in 2025. On a Fourth of July where the temperature will peak in the low-80's and with a breeze blowing in from left-center, we'll call for a lower-scoring game than expected on Friday afternoon. This series opener will pit two left-handed starting pitchers in Andrew Abbott and Jesus Luzardo. Abbott has quietly been one of the better starters in baseball this season, logging a 3.51 FIP and 1.02 WHIP in 14 starts. Meanwhile, Luzardo has hit a couple of bumps in the road - perhaps to be expected after starting the campaign on the I.L. - but has settled down lately, allowing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two outings. The bullpens have been reliable enough to trust with the total in this range. Take the under (8*).