Sean Murphy

My selection is on Washington over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the bounce-back spot for the Capitals on Tuesday as they look to respond after suffering a 5-1 loss to the red hot Devils last time out. The Canucks enter on a three-game winning streak, sweeping their road trip. They're just 3-5 on home ice this season, though. The Capitals are a woeful 2-9 on the road but that record will level out eventually. Looking back, Washington has faced a tough slate of opponents away from home. I do think they use the rest of this trip as an opportunity to get on track on the highway and off two full days' off, this is an ideal turnaround spot in my opinion. With the Canucks 'fat and happy' off a perfect road trip and having dropped last year's lone matchup between these two teams here in Vancouver, I'll back the Caps at a generous price on Tuesday. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Senegal and Ecuador at 10 am et on Tuesday.

With kickoff fast approaching, I'll key my analysis brief. Ecuador knew it had to 'go for it' against the Netherlands last time out but I expect a much different story to play out here. Both teams are unlikely to give an inch here. I think the fact that Ecuador is so stout defensively was lost in the wash last time out as it was on the front foot in a big underdog role against the Dutch (that along with the fact that Holland got an early strike from Cody Gakpo). Senegal doesn't want to get involved in a fire-fight here and will keep its shape at any cost. A 0-0 or 1-0 result is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the under (8*).

Tuesday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Warriors enter this game red hot offensively and on the heels of three consecutive 'over' results, I like the Mavericks chances of at least slowing them down on Tuesday night in Dallas. Golden State has knocked down 48, 52 and 50 field goals over its last three contests - that's about as good of a stretch as you'll see from an NBA team this season. While Dallas is reeling on the heels of four straight losses and has been the worst bet in the league from an ATS perspective this season, one thing it can do is play defense and focusing on that end of the floor would seemingly give it its best shot at snapping its skid here. Note that the Mavs have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The outlier came in a blowout win over the Nuggets in which Denver scored only 99 points. Offensively, Dallas has been as inconsistent as they come, knocking down 35 or fewer field goals in four of its last seven games. More importantly for our purposes, it plays at a snail's pace, getting off 82 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The outlier was a game against Houston that totalled only 193 points (we won with the 'under' on that night). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 73-49 with the Warriors coming off three consecutive ATS wins and 38-21 in Dallas' last 59 home games. Take the under.

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*).