Sean Murphy

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

This is a classic bounce-back and desperation spot for the Cavaliers as they return home for Game 5 after getting blown out in Game 4. That loss coincided with Donovan Mitchell leaving late in the third quarter due to an ankle injury. While Mitchell’s status remains up in the air as of Tuesday afternoon, he did participate in the team’s shoot-around — a positive sign.

Even without Mitchell, Cleveland should be fully locked in and ready to respond in front of its home crowd. The Cavs have been elite at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, going 36-9 while outscoring opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. That level of performance, paired with the urgency of facing elimination, gives them a significant edge.

This will be Indiana’s first road game with a chance to close out a series this postseason, and I’m not convinced they’ll rise to the occasion. The Pacers have been inconsistent away from home and could struggle to match the Cavs' intensity in what figures to be a raucous environment.

Whether or not Mitchell suits up, expect Cleveland’s defense to set the tone early and their physicality to wear down the Pacers over the course of four quarters.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 117, Pacers 106.

A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm ET on Tuesday.

Despite Toronto’s recent offensive surge — ranking third in the majors in wOBA over the past week — this sets up as a potential low-scoring affair as the Blue Jays return home following a west coast swing. Transitions like that often lead to a short-term dip in offensive production, particularly with an indoor game looming. With rain in the forecast, the roof at Rogers Centre is likely to be closed, limiting the ball’s carry and favoring pitchers.

Shane Baz gets the nod for Tampa Bay and is in need of a bounce-back after two poor starts. Fortunately for him, he’s had success against this Blue Jays lineup in limited exposure, allowing just seven hits (only one for extra bases) in 37 at-bats, good for a .189 batting average and .447 OPS against. The Rays bullpen should provide solid support as well, ranking seventh in xFIP this season.

On the other side, Toronto sends Jose Berríos to the mound. While he issued five walks in his last outing, he still completed six innings efficiently and has been consistently solid, giving up only four earned runs across his last 18 innings pitched. The Blue Jays bullpen continues to be one of the league’s most effective units, sitting third in xFIP.

With Tampa Bay’s offense struggling (ranking 26th in wOBA over the past week) and both bullpens in strong form, this sets up as a game where runs should be hard to come by.

Take the under. Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Rays 2.

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:45 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Giants enter Tuesday’s matchup in need of a spark after dropping four straight, including a narrow 2-1 defeat in the series opener. That spark could very well come in the form of left-hander Robbie Ray, who has helped lead San Francisco to a perfect 8-0 record in his starts this season. While his underlying metrics (notably a FIP just above 4.00) suggest he's been somewhat fortunate, Ray's sub-1.20 WHIP shows improved command — a critical factor given his track record.

Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who is working on short rest following a strong outing against the Dodgers. The matchup could be more challenging for Pfaadt this time around, especially given his past struggles against current Giants hitters (who are 9-for-28 with a 1.059 OPS against him). Compounding matters, Arizona has been less effective offensively against left-handed pitching this season.

The Giants bullpen also gives them a late-game edge, ranking fourth in the majors in xFIP. With their ace on the mound and the matchup working in their favor, this sets up as a strong bounce-back opportunity.

Take San Francisco. Projected score: Giants 5, Diamondbacks 3.