Sean Murphy

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Saturday night as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Corey Kluber and Dallas Keuchel on deck.

Kluber is coming off a seven inning performance in which he didn't allow a single earned run against the Royals. He has posted a stellar 2.34 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season. With that being said, the 'over' has gone 4-1 in his last five starts. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend, however.

Keuchel has settled in over his last couple of starts, giving up just one earned run on eight hits in 15 innings of work. Note that the 'under' is 3-1-1 in his five career starts against the Indians. He has given up two earned runs or less in four of those five outings.

These showcase matchups between elite starting pitchers don't always result in 'pitcher's duels' but in this case I believe that's precisely what we'll see. Take the under (8*).

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My selection is on Arizona over New York at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The D'Backs have certainly been struggling lately but I like them to turn the tide on Saturday night in Queens. Patrick Corbin will take the ball for Arizona. He brings a three-start winless streak to the table on Saturday but save for his most recent start, he has continued to pitch well. Note that Corbin has worked at least six innings in five of his last six trips to the hill. After going 1-3 in his first four career starts against the Mets he went 2-0 against them last year. Steven Matz will counter for the Mets. He has worked six innings only once in seven starts this season. Matz hasn't looked all that comfortable pitching at home, posting a 4.66 ERA. He pitched well but the Mets suffered a 5-3 loss in his lone prevous outing against the D'Backs in 2016. Take Arizona (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night as neither team could find any offensive consistency in the fourth quarter, ultimately ruining what looked like an easy, rocking chair winner after three quarters. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Cleveland, however. I fully expect to see the Celtics to continue to attack, albeit with some wiser shot selection than we saw in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Cavs could have easily gotten back into that game were it not for some dreadful fourth quarter shooting and shot selection of their own on that night. Look for them to do a much better job of getting to the basket and forcing the issue rather than hoisting up desperation three-pointers the way they did late in Game 2. The Cavs will also need to stop standing around and watching Lebron James. I don't see that being as much of an issue here at home in Game 3. Regardless whether this is a tight game or a lopsided affair, I believe we'll see plenty of scoring all the way through. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

While the Cavs are certainly capable of getting back in this series and holding serve on their home court, I don't expect to see the Celtics back down, even with a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. The Cavs, even when at their best, have had a tendency to let teams hang around, or even creep back in late in the game - particularly at home - and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday night in Cleveland. Both teams had an extremely tough time making shots in the fourth quarter in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston gave Cleveland every opportunity to get back in the game but the Cavs essentially stood around watching Lebron try to do it all (when they weren't doing that they were hoisting up ill-advised threes). Still, Cleveland couldn't take advantage. The Cavs are being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers here, and perhaps rightfully so given their pedigree. I'm just not sure they'll have an easy time winning by margin. Take Boston (10*).