Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in the Warriors win over the Cavs on Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Boston on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Warriors playing their third road game in five days this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 216.3 points. The 'under' has also gone 21-9 with the Warriors playing as a road underdog of six points or less, with those games reaching an average total of just 217.7 points. Note that while the Warriors are known for their offense, they can play some defensive as well. Golden State has held five straight opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting, with the 'under' going 3-2 over that stretch. For Boston's part, it has given up just 106.1 points per game after winning four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an identical average total of just 217.7 points. The Warriors offense is red hot right now with Steph Curry going off on a nightly basis but the Celtics will pose a stiff defensive test. Boston is locked in defensively right now, having held nine straight opponents to 49.4% or worse shooting, including limiting five opponents to 44.9% or worse over that stretch. The C's check in allowing 108.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting at TD Garden this season with the 'under' going 16-11 along the way. Finally, it's worth pointing out that each of the last two meetings between these teams in Boston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*).

A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*).

North Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

With the 'over' having cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg and the Oilers itching to get back on the ice following an extended layoff, I'm expecting a high-scoring game on Saturday night. Note that Edmonton will be playing for the first time in a week due to Covid-related postponements against the Canucks. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Oilers have played on three or more days' rest over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 9.0 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here. When we last saw Edmonton play, it suffered a 5-0 loss at the hands of rival Calgary last Saturday. That actually sets up the Oilers quite well here as they average 3.7 goals per game after allowing five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series but all three of those games were played in Edmonton. As I mentioned at the top, this has been a considerably higher-scoring matchup in games played in Winnipeg recently with two meetings here this season totaling 7 and 10 goals. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Angels took the opener of this series by a 10-3 score last night and I look for them to pick up a second consecutive win on Saturday. Matt Shoemaker will take the ball for Minnesota. Twins starting pitchers have to be feeling some pressure right now with their offense off to a slow start to the season save for a couple of outbursts. Shoemaker has been serviceable through his first two starts but there's also some reason for concern as he's picked up where he left off with the Blue Jays last season, recording a 6.5% home run percentage (7.0% last season) - more than double the MLB average in that category. While opponents are hitting just .233 against him, he has recorded a 46.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.4 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average. That's not to mention an inflated 37.5% fly ball percentage. While things should even out over time, the Angels have a lineup that's capable of exposing Shoemaker here. Jose Quintana will earn $8.5M for the Angels this season and will certainly be motivated to turn things around after laboring through his first two outings with his new team. Quintana had a fine spring and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here against a slumping Twins offense. While he has recorded an ugly 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats has been just 85.0 mpg - well below the MLB average. Quintana has also recorded a 55.6% ground ball percentage - more than 11% better than the MLB average - so there's reason to believe he can get back on track here. Take Los Angeles (10*).

MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Pirates took the first game of this series in blowout fashion last night (we won with the 'under'). I like the Brewers to get one back on Saturday as they go up against Buccos journeyman starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill is quite simply barely hanging on at the big league level - now pitching for his ninth different team since 2014. Things haven't been going particularly well for the veteran right-hander. He earned himself a $1M contract with the Pirates this year thanks to serviceable work with the Giants last year, in a very limited sample size. Through two starts with the Pirates, Cahill has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. It gets worse. He has recorded a 53.8% hard-hit ball percentage, 91.2 mpg exit velocity and a 34.6% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. Cahill was once a true ground ball pitcher but after posting a ground ball percentage well north of 50% every year from 2015 to 2018 he hasn't come close to touching that number since. His strikeout rate has managed to improve the last couple of years but his home run percentage has also ballooned. With opponents teeing off to the tune of a .324 batting average against him in limited work this season, I look for the Brewers bats to come alive on Saturday. Milwaukee will counter with a veteran starter of its own in Brett Anderson. Unlike Cahill, he has settled in during his twilight years at the big league level. Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage throughout his career, including through two starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .243 against him through 10 innings of work here in 2021. While the Pirates have been playing better baseball lately, they're still likely to bring up the rear in the N.L. Central this season. Look for the Brewers to respond following last night's lopsided defeat. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on Washington over Arizona at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen two very different games play out to open this series with the D'Backs winning a slugfest 11-6 on Thursday before the Nationals answered back with a 1-0 victory last night. Here, I look for the Nats to take a second straight victory as they send Erick Fedde to the hill against Luke Weaver. Fedde has been a very average big league pitcher to be completely honest, and he's off to an uneven start this season as well. I am expecting some positive regression to the mean, however, noting that opposing hitters are batting a collective .320 against him with a Babip of .421. Noting that he held opponents to a .241 batting average last season we can certainly anticipate some improvement moving forward. Note that Fedde has recorded a better than MLB average 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.3 mpg exit velocity this season and now faces a depleted D'Backs lineup that is missing two of its best hitters in Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. Luke Weaver has posted a typically high strikeout rate and has also held opponents to a .116 batting average through 12 2/3 innings of work this season. However, there is some reason for concern, noting that he gave up eight home runs in 14 2/3 innings pitched during Spring Training and has already been tagged for three home runs in two regular season starts. Weaver has recorded a 40.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.4 mph exit velocity, not to mention a 43.8% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. While those numbers are likely to even out over time, we can also expect his opponents batting average, ERA and WHIP to go in the wrong direction. After a slow start to the season, the Nats have now won three of their last five games. Look for them to pick up another on Saturday. Take Washington (8*).

Sean has turned a profit for clients in SIX of the last seven days and he extends his 96-74 (+$1,030) run with a SEVEN-GAME card on Saturday, keyed by FOUR big ticket releases! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Canes snapped their brief two-game skid with a lopsided 4-1 win over the Preds on Thursday night (we won with the 'under' in that game) and I look for them to complete the two-game sweep against Nashville on Saturday. Perhaps Carolina's lull in a two-game set against the lowly Red Wings last week was to be expected as it was coming off three straight wins, including consecutive victories over the rival - and at that time league-leading Panthers squad. We saw the Canes refocus and deliver a dominant performance on Thursday night and I look for some carry-over effect from that here on Saturday. Despite a boatload of injuries, the Predators have been playing well but some regression is certainly in order and they've had very little success against Carolina, dropping eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The Canes are in a fine spot here, having gone 23-7 in their last 30 games at home following a win over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average. Under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, the Canes have gone 40-19 following a win over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. Take Carolina (8*).

Sean has turned a profit for clients in SIX of the last seven days and he extends his 96-74 (+$1,030) run with a SEVEN-GAME card on Saturday, keyed by FOUR big ticket releases! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with this same play two nights ago as the Rangers jumped out in front early (they grabbed a 1-0 lead 47 seconds into the game) and the Devils were never able to recover in a 4-0 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday, however, as these two teams go head-to-head in the second of three straight matchups. As I noted in my analysis on Thursday, the Devils are still a winning team on the road this season having gone 10-9, outscored by just 0.2 goals per game along the way. Note they've gone 8-2 when playing on the road following consecutive losses against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. They also check in 9-3 on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 3-9 coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-7 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals per game on average. We'll grab the insurance goal here as the price warrants such a play. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*).