Sean Murphy

MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night - even though that contest wasn't without its scoring opportunities. I look for a higher-scoring affair on Friday as the Padres send Joe Musgrove to the hill against Zach Thompson.

This play is actually more about the bullpens than anything else but more on that in a moment. Joe Musgrove has labored through his last four starts for the Padres, allowing 15 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 3-1 over that stretch and has cashed in five of his last six starts overall. The Marlins haven't had any recent experience against Musgrove but do generally hit a shade better at home and against right-handed pitching this season.

My big issue with the Padres right now is their overworked bullpen. The San Diego 'pen has now logged well over 400 innings this season. While they've held up reasonably well on the whole, they enter tonight's action sporting a 4.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with only two saves converted and two blown over their last seven games so we are seeing some signs of wear.

Zach Thompson has been a terrific find for the Marlins, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 28 innings of work so far this season. With that being said, he doesn't tend to work deep into games, having gone more than five innings just twice in six starts. He's also been fortunate considering he has posted a 42% hard-hit ball percentage and his fly ball rate sits nearly 10% above the MLB average yet he's given up just one home run this season.

The Marlins have played seven games over the last six days with their bullpen logging over 40 innings along the way. Thanks to getting only one inning from last night's starter Anthony Bender they're in a tough spot here, noting that they've recorded a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that stretch with just one save converted to go along with one blown. They've blown 11 saves while converting just 10 in night games this season. Take the over (10*).

American League F5 Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Tigers are red hot right now and I like them to at least get off to a strong start against the Royals on Friday night in Kansas City.

Former Royal Wily Peralta has been a pleasant surprise in the Tigers rotation this season. He checks in sporting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four road starts. He came out of the All-Star break tossing seven shutout innings against the Twins last time out. With opponents hitting sub-.200 against him this season, I like his chances of keeping the Royals lukewarm bats at bay on Friday night.

What I don't want is any part of the Tigers bullpen on the road, where they've posted a collective 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown this season. While their bullpen was forced to work extended innings in yesterday's 7-5 win over the Rangers, the Royals 'pen was idle.

Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He's generally been awful this season, failing to even last five innings in any of his last five starts. In four home outings he has recorded a 4.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that over his last four starts he has been tagged for a whopping 11 home runs in 17 innings of work. The Tigers have seen Bubic twice since last September, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits off of him over 9 2/3 innings. Take Detroit first five innings (10*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Braves got off to a fast start at the plate and cruised the rest of the way in last night's 7-2 victory. I look for the starting pitchers to dominate Friday's contest, in the early going at least.

Max Fried will get the nod for Atlanta. After struggling in his first few starts against the Phillies back in 2019 he's been locked in over his last three going back to the start of last season. In those three outings he has allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. Note that Fried comes into this start off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Rays last week. While his road numbers are poor this season, it's worth noting that in his last two road starts on five days' rest (as is the case here) he's given up just four earned runs in 11 innings.

By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season.

Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He is of course enjoying a career year and has been particularly sharp here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, he's owned the Braves in two previous home starts this season, allowing only five hits while posting a ridiculous 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 shutout innings.

The Phillies bullpen is another one we'll look to avoid, noting that they've posted a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home this season. Take the first five innings under (7*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

I'm anticipating a slugfest as the Nationals and Orioles open their series at Camden Yards on Friday night.

Pat Corbin will take the ball for Washington. To say that he's struggled on the road this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in eight road outings. Worse still he has posted a 6.49 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts. He's faced the Orioles twice since the start of last season, allowing a whopping nine earned runs on 19 hits over just 10 2/3 innings of work.

Behind Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.41 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown on the road this season.

Jorge Lopez will counter for Baltimore. He's failed to last five innings in six of his last seven starts. Here at home he has posted an ugly 5.49 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. While he did hold the Nationals to only two earned runs over five innings in a start earlier this season, it's not as Washington was completely shut down in that one as it generated seven hits and three walks. I would expect further improvement against Lopez here, noting that previous contest took place in Washington. The Nats have actually been a better offensive club on the road where they average 4.8 runs per game this season.

The Orioles bullpen got off to a strong start this season but then the wheels came off. They've recorded a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over.

Only a bad beat with the Dodgers (blew a 3-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning) kept Sean from a 2-0 MLB SWEEP last night. He bounces back and extends his INCREDIBLE 143-87 (+$3,334) premium run with a 3-GAME card of MLB action on Friday, including TWO big ticket releases! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!