ASA Wins

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -2.5 vs Golden State Valkyries, 3pm ET - We just played against this Valkyries team the other night in Minnesota and will look to fade them again here in Las Vegas. Don’t be fooled by the Aced 6-3 overall record and a net rating of +4.6 as this is one of the very best teams in the league again this season. Las Vegas has the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson who has averaged 21.4PPG, 9.3RPG and 2.3APG for her career and has won 4 MVP’s. Golden State has been a big surprise this season with a 6-4 record overall and a solid Net rating of +7.5 but we are seeing a regression in that number after a hot start to the season. These two teams met earlier this season in Golden State and the Aces were favored by -1.5-points and won 91-81. Las Vegas pretty much dominated most key statistical categories in that game and has now won 4 straight in the series. Las Vegas is 0-2 at home this season and will be anxious and excited to be back in their own building for a rare home game. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the WNBA with a 39-16 SU record dating back to 2024 with an average margin of victory of +5.0PPG. Las Vegas will potentially have to play without Jewell Loyd and Chennedy Carter who are both game time decisions but that shouldn’t be a problem as it allows them to play a bigger lineup against a Valkyries team that has a tough time rebounding to begin with. Lay it here with the Aces.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 175.5 Indiana Fever at NY Liberty, 8 pm ET - We expect another high scoring shootout in this series that has seen four straight OVERS with 8 of the last ten eclipsing the O/U number. Last season the four games between these two teams finished with 178, 190, 175 and 182 total points being scored. Both teams are top 7 in the league in offensive Net rating and Indiana will force tempo here with the fastest pace of play in the league. New York is 10th in pace of play but their schedule has come against some of the slower paced teams in the league so they haven’t had the opportunity to play up tempo. Both teams are good defensively but not great with Indiana ranking 7th in defensive Net rating, the Liberty rank 6th. Our model is projecting 181.3 total points. Bet OVER!

#922 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -130 over Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 7:35 PM ET - Of course we are well aware that Aaron Judge is out for the Bronx Bombers but that is part of the reason the Yankees are priced so low here.  Yes, the Red Sox got the win yesterday but prior to that they were 12-18 on the season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Entering this series Boston was just 5-10 in divisional games this season.  Also, the Yankees are 14-6 against southpaws this season and left-hander Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Red Sox here.  The lefty did register plenty of strikeouts in his most recent start but this does not change the fact that it was the 2nd straight start in which Suarez allowed at least 4 earned runs.  Also, when he faced the Yankees last month he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work.  As for the Yankees Will Warren, he is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA this season and though he has had a few shorter outings the fact remains that Warren has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 10 of his 12 starts.  Boston is 3-8 the last 11 times they have entered a game off a win.  The Yankees are 3-0 the L3 times they have entered a game off a loss by a tight margin of 2 or less runs.  They lost yesterday's game 5-3 and we like the setup here for a Yankees bounce back as the Red Sox long-term struggles against quality teams quickly resumes here. We take advantage of the favorable pricing (due to Judge absence) and are laying the moderate, yet very reasonable, price in this early evening game Saturday.