ASA Wins

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. Golden State Valkyries, 10pm ET - The value in the number is what first got our attention on this play followed by the betting markets reaction and the current line move. GST was favored by -7.5 points at home in early June and won 87-81. Based on that number the Mercury should be a +1.5 point dog at best in this rematch. I’ll be honest, I’m very anti Phoenix this season as they haven’t played to the level of the team that was in the Championship last season with essentially the same roster. They did win two straight going into the AS break and are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games. They are playing slightly better in their last 10 games compared to their season long statistics and we expect a focused effort after a few days off. Golden State has exceeded expectations this season with a 19-8 SU record and currently rate as the 3rd best team in the W. The Valkyries are 3-2 ATS as a road chalk this season but we expect a regression in that number as inflated numbers will eventually catch up to them, as will be the case today. Golden State was recently favored by -5.5 points at Connecticut who is the worst team in the league so we’re not about to pass up this number with a much better Phoenix team at home.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 181 Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - Season long statistics have the Wings as the 3rd best offense in the league, the Dream are 4th. Both teams are playing above expectations in their most recent 5-games with the Wings offensive rating of 121.7 and the Dream at 115.7. Dallas has scored 89 or more points in 7 straight games with two of those being 100+. Atlanta has been a little inconsistent on offense for the season but in their last four games they’ve put up 92 or more points, 101 and 111 in two of those four. The first two meetings of this season between these two teams were very low scoring with 155 and 149 total points but that’s about to change tonight. With the added rest of the AS break we predict both offenses to put up points in this one. Bet OVER.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Pirates -135 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 12:40 PM ET - We love situational value in matchups like this one. On the surface, bettors will see Eduardo Rodriguez (9-3, 2.64 ERA) has the better record and lower ERA in comparison with Jared Jones (2-1, 3.72 ERA). However, the key here is current form. Rodriguez has allowed 9 earned runs on 21 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts. Jones, on the other hand, is in phenomenal current form as he has a 1.29 ERA in his 4 starts this month and has held opponents to a .100 batting average here in July. In both games in this series the Pirates have rallied from a deficit to force extra innings. Pittsburgh won Monday's game but then fell short in 12 innings in Tuesday's game after rallying from a big deficit. The Pirates will respond big off the loss and we like the fact that the Diamondbacks used 6 relievers in yesterday's game. Their bullpen is a bit stretched if Rodriguez would be getting hit hard early in this one which is what we expect here. The Pirates are 6-0 the last 6 times they have entered a game off a loss in which they gave up 4 or more runs! Arizona is 21-37 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record on the season. Lay the moderate, yet reasonable, money line price early Wednesday with Pittsburgh

#951 ASA PLAY ON 4* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (-105) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 12:10 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 1-0 loss yesterday. They are 15-3 the last 18 times they have entered a game off a loss in which they scored 2 or less runs!  Also, Philadelphia is expected to have Jesus Luzardo on the mound here and he has been fantastic with a total of only 8 earned runs allowed over his last 8 starts!  Luzardo has allowed only 29 hits in 49 and 1/3 innings over those 8 starts while striking out 72 in those outings!  He has been nothing short of phenomenal with his current form.  The Marlins send Ryan Gusto to the mound and he is 7-9 with a 5.37 ERA in his career and also has been mediocre this season in his 12 games (7 starts). The Phillies pounded him already this season and they do it again here.  9 of Philadelphia's last 10 wins have been by 2+ runs.  The Marlins had lost 12 straight before these B2B tight wins and in the last 11 Miami losses 10 have been by 2+ runs!  Road rout here.  Lay the -1.5 with Phillies

UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round - #224322 ASA PLAY ON Universitatea Craiova -110 over Levski Sofia, Wednesday at 1:30 ET - This is the 2nd Leg match-up and we like the home team here after they wasted a number of great scoring chances in their 1-0 1st Leg loss to Levski in Sofia. The home team is 4-0 in the last 4 Universitatea Craiova matches and the combined score of those matches was 11 to 1. The Craiova team certainly has not traveled well recently but they have been great when at home and due to a ban on visiting fans (because of racist chants in a prior match), Levski Sofia can not have any fans present for this match. Keep in mind that this club is from neighboring Bulgaria so they definitely would have had plenty of fans making the trip north to Romania for this match. However, even though some purchased tickets, those have all been canceled and no Levski Sofia fans will be permitted to enter the premises. This strengthens an already potent home pitch edge for the Romanian 2025-26 Champions and we look for Universitatea Craiova to have no trouble overturning the 1-0 deficit here. Keep in mind, this selection will be graded after 90 minutes + stoppage time. If extra time and/or penalties are required that would only be the case if the hosts win the match by a 1-goal margin in which case we have already cashed our ticket. The home team gets the win here and, at a minimum, they force the added extra time and that is all we need to cash this bet Wednesday afternoon. Let's get it!