ASA Wins

#110 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -4.5 over UNLV, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the value with Boise in this game which is a home game for the Broncos. These 2 met in October and Boise was a 13 point favorite and won 56-31 and outgained the Rebels 558 to 476. The Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-1 and still won the game by 25 points. While we don’t expect a blowout here, laying just over a FG with the host is worth a strong look here. BSU didn’t play great down the stretch going 2-2 over their last 4 games, however they were without starting QB Madsen for those games and he is now back and at 100% from what we’re hearing. He is a 2.5 year starter for the Broncos and is comfortable with the spotlight as he led them to a 21-7 win over UNLV in last year MWC Championship game. His return is key for this offense as they were averaging 35 PPG with Madsen at the helm and that dropped to 29 PPG with him on the shelf. We feel that UNLV is overrated with their 10-2 record. They faced only 2 teams in conference play that ended the year with winning records and lost to both of those teams (Boise & New Mexico). The only team that beat all season that ended the year with a winning record was Miami Oh (7-5 record) and the Rebs needed to come from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win that won by 3 points. Both teams are very good offensively but Boise State has a huge advantage on defense allowing 100 YPG and 1.0 YPP less than UNLV. The Broncos know what it takes to get to this game and win it. They’ve been in the MWC Championship game 7 of the last 8 seasons and won 4 of those, including the last 2 years (both over UNLV). This is old hat to this team. UNLV has lost the last 2 MWC Championship games to Boise but they have 70 new players on this year’s team that didn’t experience this game last season. The Broncos have dominated this series winning all 9 meetings (all by 5 points or more) by an average score of 40-19. They’ve also won 17 of their last 18 home games and they are 51-11 at home since the start of the 2016 season. We’ll lay the small number

#103 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with JSU as a slight favorite and flipped to KSU favored. We agree with the move and feel there is still value on Kennesaw State. These 2 just met here @ JSU on November 15th and Kennesaw was a 3.5 point favorite and lost 35-26. That was KSU’s only loss in their last 10 games and their only other 2 losses this year were @ Wake Forest (10-9 final score) and @ Indiana. The Owls outgained Jacksonville State in that loss (579 to 450) and had 14 more first downs but they also had 4 turnovers (0 for JSU). Not only did they have 4 turnovers, they were shut out on downs at the Gamecock 34 yard line and missed a FG. They didn’t punt in the game and 3 of their 4 turnovers most likely took points off the board with interceptions at the JSU 4 yards line, 23 yard line, and 23 yard line. While KSU’s 3 losses were all to high level teams, Jacksonville State loss to UCF, Georgia Southern, FIU, and Southern Miss. The Owls were the better team in CUSA play across the key stats while both finished 7-1 in league play. If we look at conference stats only, KSU finished higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency, had a better point differential, and had a better YPP differential. We’ll take Kennesaw State to win the CUSA Championship.