ASA Wins

ASA NBA play on UNDER 222 NY Knicks at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - With the playoffs looming, games are starting to have more meaning and teams are starting to play more defense, which will be the case tonight in this Eastern Conference showdown. New York is really clamping down on opponents on the defensive end of the court in recent weeks. The Knicks defensive net rating in the month of February was 5th best in the league at 108.4. They have held 5 of their last nine opponents to 100 or less points, three to 90 or less, which includes San Antonio and Boston, two of the best teams in the league. NY’s defensive efficiency rating in their last 5 games is 2nd best in the league at 1.045PPP allowed. Toronto is no slouch on that end of the court either with the 7th best defensive net rating in the month of February at 109.9. In the Raptors last 5 games they have the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.098PPP allowed. The other big aspect that favors a lower scoring game here is the pace of play for each team. The Knicks are 24th in pace of play on the season, the Raptors are 20th slowest. Toronto doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well, ranking 22nd in 3PT% so they can’t exploit the Knicks defensive weakness, 15th in 3PT% allowed. New York is 6th in opponents FG% allowed at 45.7%. New York will have a tough time making shots against a Raptors D that is 9th in FG% allowed and 6th in 3PT% D. This will be the 4th meeting this season between these two teams and should be similar to the previous three which all ended with 118 or less points being scored.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -12.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30pm ET - The 15 win Nets have a ton to ‘not’ play for as they tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, currently sitting 8th but only 1.5 games behind the Sixers for the 6th spot. Remember, the top 6 teams are safe from the play in games so it’s a big advantage to land 6 or better. Miami had won 3 straight and was looking good before a pair of ugly losses to the Bucks and 76ers – both on the road. They then beat the Rockets on Saturday 115-105 at home. In late February the Heat were favored by -12.5 points against a similar Grizzlies team and Miami won that game by 16-points. Brooklyn has lost 8 straight games and none of the four road losses were close as they lost in Boston by 37, in Atlanta by 11, at OKC by 19 and at Cleveland by 18. Brooklyn is the worst shooting team in the NBA at 44.6% and will have a difficult time scoring here against the 7th best FG% defense in the league. Miami isn’t a great shooting team this season ranking 19th in team FG% overall and 12th in 3PT% but they’ll face a Nets D that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and allow opponents to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts. This one will get ugly early and the Heat’s transition game will turn it into a blowout.

#606 ASA PLAY ON Georgia +2 over Alabama, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Crimson Tide. They are coming off a revenge, miracle win @ Tennessee on Saturday, now on the road again 72 hours later, and they host arch rival Auburn next. In their game on Saturday, Bama trailed by 14 in the 2nd half and came back and took their first lead of the entire game with 24 seconds left 71-69 which was also the final score. They continue to struggle on the defensive glass allowing the Vols to grab a ridiculous 54% of their misses and that could be a problem here vs UGA who is a top 50 offensive rebounding team. In their win, Tennessee shot terribly hitting only 38% for the game and just 22% from deep and still led for all but 24 seconds. Tide head coach Oats called it their best SEC win of the season and said the comeback win was “emotionally taxing” on his team. Tonight they face a Georgia team (20-9 record) is currently slated as a 9 seed in most bracket projections, but aren’t guaranteed to make the Dance depending what happens over the next week plus. A win here in their home finale locks the Dogs into the NCAA tourney. UGA should absolutely be the fresher team in this game playing their 2nd straight home game after rolling over South Carolina by 19 points on Saturday with 9 players playing double digit minutes. Bama’s leading scorer Philbin (21 PPG & 5 assists per game) is banged up and healthy. He sat out vs Mississippi State last week but came back and played on Saturday. Oats said Philbin is not 100% and they need to be careful with him down the stretch as he’s much more important come tourney time. They come into this game having won 8 straight but they’ve been a bit fortunate with half of those wins coming by 4 points or less or in OT. We think Bama’s run ends tonight and we’ll grab the points with Georgia.

#678 ASA PLAY ON UCLA (-110) over Nebraska, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - After rolling over a discombobulated USC team (kicked leading scorer off the team after Saturday’s loss) the Huskers are @ UCLA tonight in a late 11 PM ET start which could be tough for Nebraska. After starting the season with a perfect 20-0 record, the Huskers have come back to earth a bit with a 5-4 record over their last 9 games and all of their wins have come vs lower tier Big 10 teams Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, and USC. They also have a huge revenge game on deck at home vs rival Iowa on Saturday. The Bruins will be all in on this game as they sit on the NCAA bubble and this win would most likely fit them into the Big Dance. They are coming off a loss @ Minnesota on Saturday which makes this one even more important. It was a game UCLA lost by 3 but Shot Quality scores had them winning by 5. The Bruins have struggled on the road, but at home they are 16-1 this season with their only loss coming in OT. They’ve beaten other upper tier Big 10 teams, Illinois and Purdue here at Pauley Pavilion. Since joining the Big 10 last year, they are 15-3 at home in conference play. They’ve been a home dog just twice in their 2 years in conference play and won both games outright. As expected, UCLA’s home splits are much better than on the road. They shoot almost 50% at home and 40% from deep. On defense, they allow opponents to shoot only 40% and from beyond the arc just 28%. We like UCLA to upset Nebraska in their home finale and lock themselves into the Big Dance.