ASA Wins

ASA play on: UNDER 227 Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – We always like to be opposite of the public which is the case on this Under as more tickets have been placed on the Over and yet the line has dropped. There is a lot of value in this number too as these same two teams squared off on January 4th with a Total set of 223.5. They combined for 220 total points which would be fine with us tonight and get us the money. Let’s address the Thunder’s current 6-1 Over run which may concern the casual bettor. In five of their last seven games the Thunder have faced some of the fastest paced teams in the NBA. In fact, five of those teams rank 12th or faster in the entire league and two of those games were against the fastest and second fastest paced teams in the league. Tonight the Thunder get the Blazers who are the 19th slowest paced team in the league. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers at home and overall on the season allowing just 1.049 points per possession. Portland has been on a strong road Under run recently with 8 of their last ten road contests staying below the Total and all 8 finished with less points than tonight’s number. The clincher for us is how these teams do when coming off a game the night before. When playing without rest the Thunder average 215 total points per game while Portland games average 208PPG. Both of those numbers get us an easy win here. The Under is 4-1 the last five meetings. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA 9* PLAY ON OVER: NY Islanders at Chicago, Tuesday at 8:35 PM ET

The Islanders certainly trend under under new head coach Barry Trotz as he has been successful in implementing his systems and getting New York to the top of the Metropolitan Division standings. However, this total has dropped from a 6.5 to a 6 and we feel the Blackhawks on home ice are going to have a little something to say about the tempo of this game. Chicago continues to be involved in extremely high-scoring games and we don't foresee that changing in the final game before the All Star break for both the Blackhawks and Islanders. The over is 7-0 in Chicago's last 7 games. The Blackhawks have scored an average of 4.3 goals per game during this stretch. The Islanders, as noted above, have been trending under but they have scored an average of 3.6 goals in the 15 victories during their current 15-3 hot streak. We are forecasting the Islanders OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times they've entered a game off a shutout victory. The Blackhawks are 10-3 to the over this season when off a game that saw them score 4 or more goals. Bet the OVER in Chicago Tuesday evening.

ASA PLAY ON Free Pick: San Jose at Washington, Tuesday @ 7:05 PM ET

Both teams enter this match-up on losing streaks but, in our mind, there is only one way to play this. First off the line value is with the Sharks as they are the money line underdog in this match-up. Secondly, while the Sharks have lost 3 straight games, the Capitals have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games! As for San Jose, prior to their 3-game losing streak they won 16 of their previous 21 games! It is plain to see who the hotter team has been in recent weeks and, for the Sharks, this is also their final chance at a W before the All Star break while Washington does have a game tomorrow at Toronto. Of course the Caps still are motivated to win this game but, undoubtedly, San Jose is even hungrier. Also, there is no disputing that the Sharks have been the better team in recent weeks. San Jose also has revenge from being swept by the Capitals last season. Prior to that, San Jose was on a 26-5 run in this series and that long-term series dominance is expected to resume in this one. Free Pick: San Jose Sharks in early evening action Tuesday.