ASA Wins

ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too)

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The wind will be blowing out toward left field quite strongly for this one. That is bad news for Cubs southpaw Jon Lester. Though he has good numbers recently he has been quite fortunate in those starts and he now faces a White Sox team that has a .527 slugging percentage versus left-handed hurlers this season. That is good for the #1 spot in the majors and our computer math modeling projects a huge game at the plate for the White Sox in this one. The Cubs should also enjoy a big game at the plate too as they face Dane Dunning. The White Sox right-hander is a rookie and still enduring some growing pains as a 25-year old hurler at the MLB level. Dunning allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was against the Indians. Now Dunning faces a Cubs team that has hit 58 homers against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 5th in the National League and Dunning has allowed homers in each of his last two starts. The Cubs exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's win and have scored an average of 9 runs per game in their last 3 road wins. Look for the White Sox bats to bounce back big however after being shut out yesterday. The White Sox had won 15 of their last 17 home games prior to yesterday's ugly home loss. In those 17 games, the White Sox scored an average of 6.2 runs per game! Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early evening action Saturday.

#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here.

#451 ASA 8* PLAY ON Texas State +18 over Boston College, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - Anytime we look at a large underdog in college football, we like to have a team that can score points. That way they are always in the game, even if they get down big the back door is open. That’s what we have here. Texas State can score points. They are playing their 4th game of the season here vs BC and this team is averaging 37 PPG on 431 YPG and 6.1 YPP. They have 2 very solid QB’s in McBride and Vitt who’ve both played key roles already this year. McBride has been out due to Covid issues but could be back here. If not, Vitt has thrown for over 600 yards and put up 86 points in his 2 starts this year. Texas State played a very good SMU team to open the season and gave them a scare almost pulling the upset before losing 31-24. This offense is definitely capable of hanging in this game. While TSU is playing their 4th game of the season, this will be BC’s 2nd game. They upset Duke last week 26-6 so coming off a huge ACC win we’d expect a bit of a ho-hum performance here from the Eagles. On top of that, this BC team has a big ACC game on deck as they host North Carolina next Saturday. The Eagles win last week over Duke was a bit deceiving. The Devils were their own worst enemy with a number of mistakes that left points off the board. Duke was picked off at the BC 19 yard line, fumbled at the BC 4 yard line, fumbled at their own 12 yard line, fumbled at the BC 14 yard line, threw a pick at the BC 33 yard line, AND missed a FG. As you can see, the 20-point win by Boston College was not as it may have looked. The Eagles lost their battering Ram RB Dillon to the NFL (1,685 YR last year) and had only 84 yards rushing on 2 YPC last week. That’s a red flag for a team that has been a physical, run the ball team, over the last few seasons. This is also a spot the Eagles are simply not used to and that is laying a lot of points. The last time they were laying 17 points or more was back in 2018 and that was vs FCS Holy Cross. Just a bad spot for BC and playing in front of zero fans at home. We’ll grab the points here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER: Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #419

Very nice weather (light winds, mild temperatures, partly cloudy skies) expected in this one early Saturday afternoon in Oxford, MS and the offenses should flourish at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Florida averaged 33.2 points per game last season and their passing attack (300.8 yards per game) ranked 16th in the nation. Senior QB Kyle Trask is back for the Gators and his passing yardage last season (despite starting only 10 games) was the most for a Florida QB since Tim Tebow in 2007 when he won the Heisman. The Gators head coach, Dan Mullen, previously coached at Mississippi State so he is familiar with attacking the Rebels defense as that is a big rivalry. Ole Miss returns only 4 starters on defense and the Rebels struggled against the pass last season allowing 278.3 passing yards per game to rank 120th in the nation! That spells trouble in this match-up for Ole Miss but their offense just might bail them out! The Rebels do return 8 starters on that side of the ball and made a change at offensive coordinator. Last year they were a run-heavy team but will employ more of the passing game this season under new OC Jeff Lebby. He was the offensive coordinator at UCF last season. UCF's offense ranked 5th in total yardage and true freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel accumulated 3,653 passing yards plus 29 touchdowns. Lebby will have the Rebels attack looking much different than it did under Rich Rodriguez. Lebby is the OC under new Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin as he returns to the SEC. He had been a head coach at Tennessee and an offensive coordinator at Alabama. Kiffin has two solid QBs - Corral and Plumlee - to choose from and you're going to see a lot more passing with the Ole Miss attack this season. Look for a fast-paced high-scoring SEC shootout in this one. Bet the over in this early Saturday afternoon match-up.