ASA Wins

#229/230 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 55.5 Points - Louisville vs. Mississippi, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - While the Ole Miss offense was very good last year, the man who coordinated that unit (and head coach) Lane Kiffin is now the head man at LSU. John David Baker comes over from East Carolina to take over the play calling and former defensive coordinator Pete Golding is now in charge at Ole Miss. QB Chambliss is back after a very good season but we see some regression coming. Almost everything went perfectly for the former D2 transfer last year and with a new OC, we don’t expect the same numbers this season. He’s going against a Louisville defense that has a number if players back and was outstanding last year. The Cards defense ended the season ranked in the top 15 in success rate and they were 3rd nationally in pass rush (per PFF) so we expect them to keep the pressure on Chambliss on Sunday night. On the other side, Louisville will have a new starter at QB, Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz. He’s a mobile QB who has only thrown 36 passes in his career so we look for the Cardinals to rely on the run in this game (eating clock). They’ll be facing a very good Ole Miss stop unit that ranks 3rd nationally in returning snaps from last season. The Rebels defensive line will be one of the best in the country. The D Line will be facing a Louisville offensive front with only 1 starter back and their LT is now out so they’ve had to move some guys around leading into this game. 2 of the best RB’s in the country will be taking part in this game, Brown for Louisville & Lacy for Ole Miss, so look for a heavy rushing attack on each side. We look for both defenses to be ahead of the offenses (as they usually are early in the season) and with 2 top tier stop units, we’ll grab the Under.

#901 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -155 over Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET - The Brewers are off a loss and have won 6 of 8 when coming off a loss. They lost a tight one against the Reds yesterday but now will take advantage of facing the Reds' Brady Singer (5-13, 4.83 ERA) today. Cincinnati is 16-29 in divisional games this season while the Brewers are 25-14 in divisional games on the year. Milwaukee also has the pitching edge here with Kyle Harrison as he is 10-4 with a 3.45 ERA on the season. Also, this is an early game Sunday and Harrison is 5-0 with a very impressive 1.30 ERA in his 6 day game starts this season and he is holding opponents to a .189 batting average in those outings. As noted above, he'll be opposed by Singer here and the Reds right-hander went winless in his 6 starts in August while compiling a 5.29 ERA and opponents hit .304 against him on the month! Milwaukee was on a 13-6 run prior to yesterday's loss. Also, the Reds were on a 6-11 slump prior to recent B2B wins entering this series. Even after yesterday's win that still puts Cincinnati at an unimpressive 9-12 their last 21 games. Perfect situational setup here to back the road team and we look for the Brewers to roll to a comfortable road win here. Prior to yesterday's win, the Reds were 4-7 last 11 games at home. Lay the price with Milwaukee here in very early day game action Sunday.

Spanish La Liga #201821 ASA PLAY ON Barcelona Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-135) over Valencia, Sunday at 10:15 AM ET - We like the situation here as there are so many positives in favor of the big road favorite in this one.  Barcelona lost the most recent meeting between these clubs in Valencia.  This followed Barcelona's domination of this series including 3 straight wins by a combined score of 18 to 1.  Yes, complete domination and Barcelona also enters this match red hot as they have won their first 3 matches this season by a combined score of 12 to 2.  Valencia, on the other hand, is still winless and they have scored a total of just 1 goal in their 3 matches plus they are off a match in which they allowed 3 goals.  This Barcelona club is so stacked this season after their off-season moves and they are going to dominate this revenge match and win by a multi-goal margin.