ASA Wins

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle.  MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th.  They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards.  In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5.  The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points).  The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack.  Offensively this Tech team is not good.  The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points.  They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season.  Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win).  MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad.  The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game.  We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play.