ASA Wins

#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here.

#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight.

#848 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois -1.5 over Purdue, Monday at 12 PM ET - We have Illinois power rated as the top team in the Big 10 right now. They are playing their best basketball over the last month or so going 6-0 with all of their wins coming by double digits. They did struggle early in the season with their All American center Cockburn out (22 PPG & 12 RPG) but since he’s come back they’ve won 11 of their last 12 games. Their only loss during that stretch was by 4 points vs Arizona (highest rated team in the Pac 12) by 4 points in a game the Illini led by double digits. Their 5 worst performances of the season from an efficiency standpoint game prior to December 12th. Purdue has played 2 Big 10 road games thus far losing @ Rutgers and beating Penn State by 7. Both offenses are high end ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency, however Illinois has the much better defense (21st in efficiency and 10th in eFG% allowed). They also defense inside the arc at a very high level (8th nationally) which will help limit much of the advantage Purdue has on other teams with Edey and Williams inside. Dating back to middle of last season Illinois has covered 9 of their last 10 games at home vs Division 1 opponents. They have also won 21 of their last 24 home games outright and that’s pretty much all we need here with this line sitting at -1.5 as of this write up. Take Illinois.