ASA Wins

ACTION on pitchers. #905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -125 over Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team, no matter who has been on the mound, has won 11 of 13 games and has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 13 games.  Los Angeles could start Max Scherzer here as, even though he came in to pitch the 9th inning in the Game 5 victory over the Giants, he threw only 13 pitches.  The point about the Dodgers pitching is that even if they go with a bullpen game here this team continues to dominate with pitching no matter who is on the mound.  LA has won those 11 of 13 games also, thanks in part, to a red hot lineup.  The Dodgers have scored an average of 7.3 runs in their last 9 victories!  The Braves have scored an average of 3.7 runs per game last 7 games and we are going to take the better lineup and the better bullpen and the more experienced post-season team to get the win here in Game 1.  Whether or not the Dodgers start Scherzer and whether or not the Braves start Max Fried, we are siding with Los Angeles in this one for the reasons outlined above.  We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -125

#181 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +12 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We see no way the Hawkeyes have their complete focus for this game. They are coming off a top 10 match up vs Penn State in what was a wild Saturday in Iowa City. We had some friends in the stands for that game and they said the energy from the crowd was off the charts. Iowa was down 17-3 in the game when PSU lost their QB Clifford for the rest of the game with an injury. From that point on, with 12:30 to go in the 2nd quarter, the Penn State offense gained a total of 50 yards. Back up QB Roberson, who had 8 career pass attempts entering the game, was overwhelmed by Iowa’s defense and completed just 7 passes. Even with that Iowa was barely able to squeak out a 23-20 win. Now after that game and with big time rival Wisconsin on deck, the Hawkeyes will be flat here. Purdue is solid this season and they are coming off a bye. They are coming off a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in a game they outgained the Gophers by 150 yards. The Boilers have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this year including their game @ Notre Dame. Their defense is solid ranking 16th nationally allowing just 300 YPG on 4.8 YPP. They should be able to stay in this game facing an Iowa offense that ranks 110th nationally putting up only 317 YPG. Iowa’s YPP differential is nothing to write home about at +0.6 YPP but they’ve been gifted with a ridiculous +18 TO margin in just 6 games! That includes +3 last week vs PSU with their back up QB and again they still only won by a FG. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they’ll have a shot to pull the upset here. Iowa’s offense isn’t good enough to pull away from a solid defense off a bye week. This has been a close series with the last 3 meetings being decided by a total of 12 points. Dangerous spot here for the Hawkeyes and we’ll take the underdog.

#163 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -3.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Fresno comes in off a bye week and a loss @ Hawaii the previous week. That 17-14 setback was very misleading with FSU outgaining Hawaii by 160 yards. Bulldog top notch QB Haener had perhaps the worst game of his career throwing 4 interceptions in that game all inside the Hawaii 15 yard line! Basically taking away 4 scoring chances and they still only lost by a FG. For the season he had completed 70% of his passes for over 2,200 yards and 18 TD’s with just 2 total picks in his other games. Just an aberration and a motivating one at that. Fresno’s other loss this season came @ Oregon by 7 in a game they outgained the Ducks. They also outgained UCLA by 174 yards in a win on the Bruins home field. This team is very good, coming off a bye and a tough loss which sets up nicely. Wyoming lost @ Air Force last week. The Cowboys are outgaining their opponents by only 13 YPG despite playing a very easy schedule that includes Montana State, Northern Illinois, UConn, and Ball State. It’s not as if the Cowboys are rolling over this suspect competition as they struggled to beat FCS Montana State by 3 points and UConn, the lowest ranked team in FBS, by 2 points. That’s the same UConn team that Fresno beat 45-0 this season. The Wyoming defense was preparing for the option attack of Air Force last week and now they have to completely switch gears facing a top notch passing attack this week. Fresno ranks 3rd nationally averaging 380 YPG through the air and the 4 FBS teams that the Cowboys have faced thus far rank 128, 124, 120, and 78 in passing offense. This will be a really tough adjustment for Wyoming. We like the better team, off a bye, off a loss, and they’ve played the much tougher slate (outplayed 2 Pac 12 teams as we mentioned above). Take Fresno.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia -21.5 over Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UGA has allowed 2 TD’s the entire season – just 5.5 PPG given up. Kentucky offense isn’t great throwing the ball, they rely on the run and no way they get that done here vs UGA defensive front (allows 2 YPC). UGA will be motivated here as UK is undefeated and ranked 11th – they shouldn’t be – Wildcats have already faced 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC (Mizzou & South Carolina) and won those games by 7 points & 6 points. Since season opener vs Clemson (10-3 final) the Dawgs offense has scored an average of 46 PPG and they have not scored less than 34. With a defense that has allowed 2 TD’s ALL YEAR, that means they are blowing out everyone. UGA is covering by an average of 15 PPG (#1 in the country) and their scoring margin is +34 PPG which is #1 nationally. This is just 2nd road game for UK and they struggled for a 16-10 win @ South Carolina in their other road tilt. Two weeks ago UGA played host to then undefeated and #8 ranked Arkansas who was looking great and scoring lots of points averaging 35 PPG entering the game – UGA won 37-0 and held Arkansas to 162 total yards. Arkansas offense is better than Kentucky’s and we see a similar result in this game. Just like Arky, the Wildcats might not score in this game. UGA rolls to another big win and cover.

#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers.

#175/176 ASA CFB FREE PLAY ON Over 63 Points – TCU vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams are coming off high scoring games as TCU just faced Texas Tech and they combined for 83-points, while Oklahoma and Texas squared off in an All-timer with 103 total points. OU had played a couple lower scoring games but have figured things out offensively in two straight games with over 1,000 combined yards and 92-points against Kansas State and Texas. The Sooners made a change at QB last week from Rattler to Caleb Williams who threw for 212yards, 2 TD’s and ran for 88 yards. Williams is a dual threat QB and hard to prepare for. Last week he entered the game with 6 minutes to go in the first half he led the Sooners to 38-points on 9 possessions. With Williams under center the OU offense averaged 8.1YPPL after averaging just 5.7YPPL on the season. TCU defense way down from past editions allowing 30+ points in 4 straight games while ranking 122nd in total defense. The Horned Frog offense will need to score as well to reach this number and we like them to have success here. They have put up at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5. This one is a shootout and we like the OVER.