ASA Wins

#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers.  That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles.  As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career.  The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here.  He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season.  Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well.  Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs!  The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch.   However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games.  The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers.  Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds.  Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue!  Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable.