Larry Ness

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET.

The Toronto Raptors opened defense of the franchise's first-ever NBA title in October with Kawhi in LA playing for the Clippers plus starting guard Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) also in LA, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news was that head coach Nick Nurse (reigning Coach of the Year) still had a familiar cast. Pascal Siakam was the NBA's Most Improved Player and then averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry's been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without (he was a former Defensive Player of the Year). Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believed Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). Toronto has opened 8-3, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry (21.8-4.3-6.5) and Serge Ibaka (14.0 & 6.5 while averaging just 23 minutes) have each missed the last three games. Lowry ( fractured thumb) is out until at least late-November and Ibaka (sprained ankle) is listed as "out indefinitely."

Toronto is playing the finale of a five-game road trip on Saturday and has won THREE of the first four stops. The Raptors bounced back from a 98-88 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday (Raptors got outscored 25-10 in the 4th quarter, one night after beating the Lakers 113-104 on the same court) with a 114-106 triumph at Portland on Wednesday. VanVleet went off for a season-high 30 points in Wednesday's win and is averaging 22.3 PPG over the last three contests (with Lowry sidelined). Siakam is averaging 27.2 & 9.2 on the season, as he's turned into an All-Star.

The Dallas Mavericks were playoff 'regulars' from 2000-01 to 2015-16, making the postseason in 15 of those 16 years (won lone NBA title in 2011). However, the Mavs opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing years, with win totals of just 33, 24 and 33. However, after Luka Doncic won rookie-of-the-year honors last season (21.2-7.8-6.0), expectations were that Dallas would be a playoff team in 2019-20. Kristaps Porzingis was acquired from the Knicks last season in a trade and he was healthy and ready to go to open this season. He's averaging 18.5 & 8.2 and with Doncic putting up Westbrook-like numbers (28.7-10.3-9.3), the Mavs surely have shown signs of being a playoff team. Five more players have played in all 11 games this season, with two others playing in 10 of 11. That group consists of guys averaging anywhere from 6.4-to-11.6 PPG.

However, the Mavs check in at a modest 6-5 and that includes TWO losses to the pathetic NY Knicks, home and away, in a seven-day span. Dallas has yet to convince me that "it is back," but the Raptors are in a tough spot, playing their FIFTH game in nine days. With no Lowry or Ibaka for Toronto, I expect Dallas to get a much-needed, confidence-building win here at home, against the defending champs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Boston College at 2:00 ET. Belmont and Boston College meet Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill in an on-campus Gotham Classic matchup. Belmont is coming off a 27-6 season  which included an upset of 6th-seeded Maryland in the NCAAs, before losing 81-70 to Temple in the second round. However, the Bruins saw legendary head coach Rick Byrd retire (805 career wins), plus lost the 6-7 Windler (21.3 & 10.9) and guard McClain (16.8-3.6-3.9) from that team. Windler was a 1st round NBA draft choice and led Belmont with 35 & 11 in its upset of Maryland. McClain was a 1st-team All-OVC guard, who led Belmont with 29 points in the Temple loss. Boston has struggled to find its way into the top-half of the ACC and went just 14-17 (5-13 in the ACC) last season. Replacing Windler and McClain will be difficult but Belmont feels great about new head coach. Casey Alexander, who played for Byrd at Belmont, was his assistant for 16 years and then as Lipscomb's head coach, led them to a 29-8 record last year, including a runner-up finish in the NIT. The Bruins have a solid guard duo in Kunkel (20.5) and Murphy (10.0-8.5-5.0) plus up front, the 6-11 Muszynski has averaged 17.5 PPG and 6-7 grad transfer Scanlon has averaged 10.0-6.4-4.5. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). However, BC is off to a 3-0 starts and seeks its first 4-0 start in 12 years. BC will really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad ttansfer Derryck Thornton has averaged 17.3 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic averaged 14.5 & 7.2 last season and in BC's 3-0 start, has averaged 12.7 & 5.7. The 6-8 Mitchell is also back up front and he's averaged 5.7 PPG and 10.7 RPG.  A pair of freshman have also looked good in the early going, as guard Heathchecks in at 12.7 & 4.3 plus the 6-7 Felder has added 6.3 & 5.3. It's hard NOT to be impressed by the Belmont program in recent years but this is just the team's third game, owning a home win over Samford and then taking a 79-72 loss at Illinois St, which lost FOUR starters off last season's 17-win team. Meanwhile, BC  opened with a conference win over Wake Forest (77-70) and has also won 74-60 at South Florida, last year's NIT champs. Belmont was picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference in coach Casey Alexander's first season but this visit to Boston does NOT end well. Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State.

Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs).

The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st).

Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch).

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF.

Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards.

A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th).

Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016, completing an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season. Minnesota's 31-26 win at home last Saturday over previously unbeaten Penn St gave the Gophers to their first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in last Sunday's AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. 6-0 Minnesota leads 4-2 Wisconsin by TWO games in the Big Ten West and can take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by winning in Iowa City on Saturday against 6-3 Iowa (3-3 in Big Ten). Iowa's hopes of winning the West Division are on 'life support' after dropping a 24-22 decision last Saturday at Wisconsin, missing a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion try late in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes are THREE games behind the Golden Gophers with three contests remaining. P.J. Fleck 'surfed' the locker room after what non-believers would call an upset over Penn State last week, then asked his players to grab a hand. "Whatever you believe in, whoever you believe in, this is what sport does, bring so many people together," Fleck told the group after his 18-second ride. There is NO doubt he's a motivator! QB Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions, completing 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three TDs, improving to 13-2 as the starting QB. He's completing 67.9% on the season with 21 TDs and just four INTs. He has two quality targets in Johnson (50 catches / 14.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and Bateman (38 catches / 22.3 YPC / 7 TDs) plus RB Smith leads a running game averaging 195.2 YPG (38th) with 940 yards on 5.5 YPA with 7 TDs. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 PPG (15th), while allowing 20.7 PPG (27th). It's been a "close but no cigar" season for Iowa in this year's Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes have lost THREE games all against ranked teams. Iowa lost 10-3 at then-No. 18 Michigan, 17-12 at home to then-No. 10 Penn St and 24-22 just last Saturday at then-No. 13 Wisconsin. QB Nate Stanley (60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs) threw for 208 yards and two TDs in the loss to Wisconsin, overtaking Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. He leads an offense that averages just 24.1 YPG (98th) and one which can't match Minnesota's skill players at RB or receiver. However, Iowa's defense is allowing only 11.7 PPG (4th) on 289.3 YPG (11th). I like Fleck but this is not Kirk Ferentz's first 'rodeo.' He's in his 21st year at Iowa and after going 4-19 in 1999 and 2000, he's led the Hawkeyes to 16 bowls in 18 seasons (make that 17 of 19, here in 2019). I called Minnesota's upset against Penn St last Saturday but let's look closer at its entire "body of work." Here's Minnesota's first four games. It opened with a 28-21 home win over SD St, which averages just 20.8 PPG. Minnesota needed OT to win at Fresno St 38-35 (Bulldogs are a 4-5 team) plus beat Ga Southern only 35-32 as a 17-point favorite. Minnesota then won 38-31 at Purdue (Boilermakers are just 4-6 in 2019). Yes, Minnesota comes into this contest having outscored its last five conference opponents 199-67 but note that Penn St almost 'caught' Minnesota late in last Saturday's game, with the Minnesota D allowing 518 yards. How did Penn St's offense fair at Iowa vs the Hawkeyes? The Nittany Lions scored just 17 points (they average 37.1 PPG) and gained only 294 yards (they average 434.8 YPG). Iowa has won FOUR straight vs Minnesota and note that THREE of those wins came over bowl-bound Minnesota teams. Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in the nation with Baylor) but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has captured EIGHT straight Floyd of Rosedale trophies at Kinnick Stadium! Make that NINE in a row! Good luck...Larry