Larry Ness

My 10* Game of the Month (AL) is on the NY Yankees at 8:10 ET.

The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins are both atop their respective divisions as the two teams get set to open a three-game series at Target Field on Monday. Back on the morning of June 15, the Yankees were 41-27, a half-game back of the TB Rays in the AL East. However, as of this morning, New York is 63-34, NINE games up on Tampa Bay, with the defending champion Red Sox trailing the Yankees by 11 games. Meanwhile, the Twins were 46-22 on the morning of June 15, 11 games up on the Indians in the AL Central. However, Minnesota woke up this morning at 60-38, just a mere THREE games ahead of the Indians. The Yankees, despite all their injuries, have overcome an 8-10 start to 2019 by going a MLB-best 55-24 (.696) since that slow start. The Twins have been atop the AL Central most of the season but a 14-16 record over their last 30 games (while the Indians have gone 22-8), has them in a tight race.

In a battle of lefties, CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.06 ERA) gets the call for New York, while Martin Perez (8-3, 4.10 ERA) goes for the Twins. Sabathia announced before the season that 2019 would be the final one of his 19-year major league career. It has hardly been a 'breeze' for CC in 2019, especially on the road. While he owns a 4-1 record with a 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .214 batting average at home (team is 7-1), Sabathia is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and has allowed the opposition to hit .295 (Yanks are 2-5). However, I will close with some very STRONG reasons to back CC (and the Yanks) in this one, in a bit.

Perez opened 2019 with three appearances out of the bullpen but then went 6-1 over his first eight starts (Twins were 6-2). However, he owns just ONE win over his last seven starts and while the Twins are 3-4 in that stretch, Perez has allowed four ERs or more FIVE times! The 28-year-old has seen his season ERA elevate over a full run (2.95 to 4.10), since posting a 7-1 mark in his first 11 trips to the mound (eight starts / three relief appearances).

On to the pick: The Yanks are on a great roll coming in (see above), while the Twins are sub-500 since mid-June. What's more, the Yankees have DOMINATED the Twins the last decade, compiling a 48-20 record since 2010, including going 23-10 at Target Field. As for CC, he is 22-9 with a 3.08 ERA in 41 career starts against Minnesota (teams are 27-14), while Perez is 2-2 with a bloated 9.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four career starts vs the Yankees. Let me finish by noting that CC is 12-1 in his last 16 starts against the Twins.

Good luck...Larry