Larry Ness

My free play is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. 

The 2019 MLB season has entered its final two weeks and this two-game IL series between the Rays and Dodgers in LA has plenty of postseason implications. The 89-62 Rays currently own the second wild card in the American League, 1 1/2 games behind wild-card leader Oakland. However, they are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians, plus face a daunting final 11 games (two here in LA, a six-game homestand against the Red Sox and the Yankees, then a three-game series in Toronto). The Dodgers have already clinched their SEVENTH-straight NL West title but there is still the chase for best record in the NL (lead the Braves by just four games), as well as the best overall record in MLB (trail the Astros and Yankees by one game), which offers home-field advantage in the World Series against any opponent. 

Blake Snell (6-7, 4.28 ERA) and Ross Stripling (4-4, 3.40 ERA) are tonight's starters. Snell is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and will make his first start since July 21. Snell had arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow back on July 25 but he started to resemble the pitcher that went 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA last season in his last four starts before his surgery. He allowed just four ERs over 22 innings during that span (he went 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and the team went 4-0), lowering an ERA that had soared to 5.01 on June 25 to 3.40. However, Snell will be available for no more than three innings. 

Stripling makes his 30th appearance of 2019 (15th start) and is hoping to secure a spot on the postseason roster. The Dodgers have an opening for a No. 4 starter if they can advance to the NLCS and Stripling could get consideration with a strong close to the season. He is 2-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 14 starts this season, with the Dodgers going 8-6. Tonight's contest begins LA's final homestand of the season, with the the sad-sack Rockies (66-85, including 26-49 on the road) visiting Chavez Ravine for three games Friday-Sunday, after the Rays. LA is MLB's best home team, going 56-20 while earning $1,969 at $100/game (Dodgers are outscoring their opponents on average, 5.34-to-3.22 RPG). Tampa Bay is one of MLB's better road teams but who knows what Snell will have in his first game back and whatever it may or not may not be, he will be limited to just three innings. Take the Dodgers. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

The Washington Nationals' lackluster September play has left the team little margin for error in its quest for a wild card spot, as the 2019 season now has less than two weeks left. Washington opened its three-game series in St Louis against the Cards last night with a 4-2 loss. Anthony Rendon hit his 34th HR but Washington was limited to four singles otherwise. Washington came to St Louis having lost THREE of four in Atlanta, won TWO of three in Minnesota and lost TWO of three at home to the Braves, in the team's previous three series. The Nats' lead over the Chicago Cubs for the first wild card was reduced to one-half game with the loss plus the Brewers lurk just ONE game back of the Cubs. St Louis got its six-game homestand off on the wrong foot by dropping TWO of three to Milwaukee over the weekend but last night's win allowed the Cards to maintain a two-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central (Milwaukee is three back).

Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) will square off in tonight's second contest of the series. Corbin won double digits in victories three times with Arizona (2013, '17 & '18) and is two wins shy in 2019 of his single-season career high of 14 (2013 & 2017).Corbin logged his NL-best 22nd quality start in Thursday's 12-6 win at Minnesota, allowing three ERs on nine hits over six innings. However, a closer look at Corbin's season reveals that he's been significantly worse on the road than at home in 2019. He owns a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 ERA and .193 BAA in 14 home starts (Nats are 11-3), while pitching to a 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .256 BAA in 16 road starts (team is 7-9).

Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 16-14 in his 2019 starts (minus-$175). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.80 ERA in 16 road starts (as well as a poor 1.40 WHIP and .298 BAA) but in 14 home starts, his ERA is 2.91, his WHIP is 1.01 and opponents are batting a more modest .241 against him.

Corbin's road numbers up against Mikolas' home numbers make for a strong edge to the Cards and St Louis is 30-11 at home against the Nationals since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006. More notably, St Louis is 19-6 its last 25 at home. Cards win and with the Cubs and Brewers both playing at home vs losing teams (Reds and Padres, respectively), the Nats will really start to 'sweat.'

Good luck...Larry