Larry Ness

My 1* Free Play is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST).

Toronto is trying to run down the Bruins for second spot in the East, but it comes to this difficult road venue off a poor 6-2 loss to the Senators. Overall the Leafs average 3.60 GPG, while conceding 3.00. 

Nashville is now a point behind Winnipeg for the Central division lead, but it enters having won two straight and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Predators average 2.95 GPG and they allow 2.66. 

Nashville won 4-0 in Toronto back on January 7th, but with a much more “winnable” game in Buffalo tomorrow night, I think the Leafs could get caught “looking ahead” here as well. 

The road ahead doesn’t get any easier for Nashville either, with Pittsburgh coming to town on Thursday night, followed by a five game road trip with three tough ones right out of the gate at Winnipeg, Minnesota and the rematch vs. the Penguins. The Predators can ill afford to “look past” the Leafs tonight.

I think this is a very fair price all things considered. The home side is definitely worth a second look in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My NIT 10* Game of the Week is on Memphis at 8:00 ET.

The San Diego Toreros finished seventh in the West Coast Conference and lost in the semifinals of the MWC tourney to eventual champion Saint Mary's. At 21-14, the Toreros didn't even bother to hold a team watch party on Sunday night to view the selection show, feeling chances were so slim at garnering the school's first-ever NIT invite. However, San Diego was the 32nd and final team announced to the NIT field (the 6-seed in the TCU bracket). Often, schools invited to the NIT experience a letdown, disappointed after failing to garner a spot in the NCAA Tournament. That is clearly NOT the case with San Diego.

However, San Diego opens its first-ever NIT game against a school that is also FAR from being disappointed to be playing in the NIT. 21-13 Memphis is headed to a postseason tournament for the first time since the 2013-14 season as the No. 3 seed in the TCU bracket. The Tigers' last trip to the NIT came in 2010 and Memphis won the tournament in 2002. Under first-year head coach Penny Hardaway, Memphis forced its way to the edge of the Big Dance bubble with a late-season run that ended with a three-point loss to Houston in the AAC semifinals last Saturday.

The Toreros are led by an impressive trio of seniors. The 6-7 Pineiro (19.1 & 9.5) will be the best player on the floor, supported by a pair of veteran guards in Carter (14.8) and Wright (13.8 & 4.7 APG). That said, Memphis counters with a superb pair of seniors, as well. PG Martin leads the team in scoring (19.6), assists (4.4) and steals (2.2) and was a first team All-AAC pick. Up front, it's 6-8 senior forward Kyvon Davenport (13.2 & 7.1). Hardaway loves to use multiple players, as while freshman guard Tyler Harris (10.6) also averages in double figures, SIX more Tigers chip in between 4.8 and 8.5 PPG.

I wish these teams weren't playing each other but that's the luck of the draw. Memphis was 15-12 SU at home during the regular season (lost to only Tennessee and Cincinnati), while averaging about 85.0 PPG. The Tigers got to play on their home floor (FedExForum), beating Tulane 83-68 and UCF 79-55, before barely losing 61-58 to Houston (31-3 and 11th-ranked in the final AP poll). Memphis will likely have to win on the road the rest of the way in this year's NIT but that's NOT the case here. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* First Four Opoener is on Belmont at 9:10 ET.

Fran Dunphy is a Philadelphia sports icon, having coached Penn for 17 years and now 13 years at Temple. Dunphy announced prior to this season that 2018-19 would be his his final season as a college basketball coach and he's going in style, as Temple is back to the NCAA Tournament. The 23-9 Owls won six of their final seven games before falling to Wichita State 80-74 in the quarterfinals AAC Tournament and likely needed every one of those wins to sneak into the field of 68. The Owls will play Belmont in a First Four game for the 11-seed in the East Regional (winner will play 6-seed Maryland on Thursday). The 26-5 Belmont Bruins were the No. 1 seed in the OVC but were upset by Ja Morant and Murray State in the conference title game. However the Selection Committee gave them a reprieve with an at-large bid (one of seven for a Mid-Major). This marks Belmont's eighth NCAA Tournament but its first with an at-large bid (note: this is the first at-large bid for an OVC team in 32 years!).

The announcement of Belmont's at-large selection brought veteran coach Rick Byrd to tears. I'm emotional right now," he said to The Tennessean in Nashville Sunday. "I get that way about those I care about, and I feel that way about this team. We were hopeful but you never know. This is an unbelievable accomplishment for this team and this program. Belmont is led by 6-8 "big guard" Dylan Windler, who averages 21.4 PPG (shoots 43% from three) and an impressive 10.7 RPG. Fellow guard McClain adds 16.3 PPG plus PG Murphy (9.8-4.5-6.6) make up a terrific perimeter trio. Belmont enters the tourney as the second-highest scoring team in Division I behind Gonzaga at 87.4 PPG and its 49.9 percent from the floor ranks fourth-best. It's good news that the 6-11 Nick Muszynski (14.9 & 5.9), who missed the conference title game with an ankle injury, is expected to play.

Temple is led by American Athletic Conference scoring leader Shizz Alston (19.7 PPG), who also leads the AAC in free throw percentage (90.7), minutes per game (37.1) and ranks second in assists (5.0). The Owls also have an outstanding perimeter group, as Rose adds 16.5 PPG and Pierre-louis (13.3 & 5.7). At issue is the lack of much of  a frontcourt presence, as the 6-10 Aflokoi (5.9 & 7.0) and the 6-7 Moorman (5.8 & 4.1) are not major contributors.

Looking closer, Temple's Rose is just 12-of-42 (28.6 percent) from long distance over his last nine games and Pierre-Louis has failed to surpass his scoring average in any of his last four games. Noting the likely return of Belmont big man Muszynski, he has 65 blocks while Temple has only 72 as a team. Dunphy has been an NCAA regular (16 previous appearances with Penn and Temple), but he's won his first game just THREE times (he's NEVER won a second game / 3-16 overall). I will admit that Belmont is winless in seven previous Big Dance appearances but Belmont IS the better team here (87.4 PPG on 49.9% shooting) and I believe won't miss this "at-large" opportunity to finally get the school's first-ever NCAA win. Expect more tears from Rick Byrd and Maryland had better watch out come Thursday.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET.

The 44-27 Indiana Pacers are in fourth place in the Eastern Conference as they continue a four-game road trip against the LA Clippers at Staples Center on Tuesday. The Pacers enter off a 106-98 loss Monday night at Portland. A Miami Heat loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, or a Pacers victory, would have clinched a playoff berth for Indiana but neither happened. Losers of seven of their last 11, the Pacers visit the 41-30 Clippers, who are closing in on wrapping up a Western Conference playoff berth. The Clipps have won SEVEN of eight and are six games clear of the ninth-place Sacramento Kings with 11 left to play.

Indiana center Center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.0) scored a season-best 28 points against Portland to fall three points shy of his career high but PF Thaddeus Young (12.5 & 6.5) was on the other end of the spectrum as he scored a season-low two points on 1-of-8 shooting. With Oladipo (18.8-5.6-5.2) out for the season, SF Bogdanovic 917.8 & 4.1), big man Sabonis (14.2 & 9.1, despite just FIVE starts), PG Collison (11.3 & 6.0 APG) and swingman Evans (9.8) are the main contributors, They have recently been joined by SG Mathews (12.5 PPG in 15 games), a late addition from the Mavs t

LA sixth-man man Lou Williams (20.4 & 5.2 APG) buried a three-pointer as time expired to provide the club with a 119-116 win over the visiting Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Along SF Gallinari (19.4 & 6.1) and 6-8 PF Harrrell (16.4 & 6.7), the trio represents the core of LA's team since the NBA trade deadline when the Clippers made three separate moves to alter a roster that was fighting for playoff eligibility. When the Pacers earned a 116-92 home win Feb 7 over the Clippers, leading scorer Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott, Marcin Gortat, Milos Teodosic and Avery Bradley never made it to Indiana that night. Clippers players who had yet to arrive by then, but have since helped the team to an 11-4 record while solidifying L.A.'s playoff chances include, Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Jamychal Green, Garrett Temple and Ivica Zubac.

So LA takes the court 11-4 in its last 15, including wins in SEVEN of its last eight. In stark contrast, the Pacers enter having lost SIX consecutive road games (1-5 ATS). It may come as a surprise to many that the "left for dead" Clippers are just ONE game behind San Antonio (No. 5 seed) and 2 1/2 games back of the No. 4 seed. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry