Larry Ness

My 9* Playoff Hopefuls Showdown in on the StL Cardinals at 7:07 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers and the St Louis Cardinals split a Friday doubleheader, with the Brewers winning the first game 3-0 and the Cardinals winning the nightcap 9-1. The 28-30 Brewers are on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race and have quite frankly been playing catch up all season, since they have never reached the high side of .500. They must now win their last two games to have any chance of participating in postseason baseball. Meanwhile, the 29-27 Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NL Central's second-place playoff slot.

Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (2-5, 3.43 ERA) and St Louis' Adam Wainwright (5-2, 3.05 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-7 in Woodruff's 12 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of those 12 starts.

St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). 

Wainwright is 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA in 43 career appearances against the Brewers, including 36 starts (Cards are 24-12). These two squared off in the first half of a doubleheader back on Sep 16, a game the Cards won 4-2, as Wainwright pitched ALL seven innings, allowing two runs with a KW ratio of 9-1. Wainwright's had a very good career and here at 39-years-old, he's posted the lowest BBA of his career (2.12), 40 points lower than his career average of .252! Wainwright wants another postseason run and increases the Cards' chances by winning here. Bye-Bye Brewers!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

The 30-28 Cincinnati Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 with Friday night's 7-2 win at Target Field over the Twins. The team stuck around after the final out on the field to celebrate and with good reason. After all, when St Louis beat the Reds 16-2 back on Sep 1, Cincinnati was a mediocre 15-21. However, the Reds have rebounded to go 15-7 since then, including 10-2 in their last 12 games. The  series continues tonight at Target Field but it's the Twins, not the Reds, who have MUCH more to play for over the weekend. The 35-23 Twins own a one-game lead over both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians (both are 34-24) heading into the final two games of the regular-season. Minnesota can clinch home field advantage for the wild-card round by winning one game or Cleveland losing one game but can also claim the AL Central title by finishing with two victories. The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Twins but Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland or if there should be a three-way tie for first.

Tonight's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6).

However, Castillo has been a key figure in Cincinnati's September surge, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in four starts. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide.

He returned to the mound on Sep 1, 2020, making his first start since Sep 6 of last season. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts this season and comes in off an 8-1 victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field last Saturday when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21-4 KW ratio in his four September starts (Twins are 4-0!). Castillo is red-hot but the Reds could be a little drained off last night's playoff-clinching win, while the Twins have the AL's No. 3 seed clearly in their sights!  Minnesota suffered just its SIXTH loss in 29 games at Target Field in 2020 (Twins are a MLB-best 23-6 at home) and I'm betting this is the perfect situation for them to grab a VERY important win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:07 ET.

The Phillies lost 6-4 Friday night 6-4 at Tropicana Field to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have already clinched the AL East but can clinch the AL's overall No. 1 seed with a win here. Philadelphia can still make the playoffs but the Phillies need help. Here's what Philly knows for sure. Friday's loss combined with Miami's 4-3 win over the Yankees in New York in 10 innings meant the 28-30 Phillies can only finish tied with the 30-28 Marlins, who hold the tiebreaker edge and are guaranteed second place and a playoff spot for the first time since 2003. The Phillies can't finish any better than third in the NL East this season and there is just ONE wild card spot left in the NL. Either the 29-27 Cards or 28-30 Brewers will nail down the No. 2 spot in the NL Central, so the Phillies are 'fighting' the loser of that race plus the 29-29 Giants for that final wild card spot.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Philly's Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA) and Tampa Bay's John Curtiss (3-0, 1.85 ERA).Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and was acquired by Philadelphia to pitch in big games like this. Wheeler was 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA through his first eight starts (Phils were 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of those eight starts. However, he's 0-1 over his last two starts (team is 0-2) with a 3.46 ERA. He has never faced the Rays The Rays send Curtiss to mound to be used as an "Opener." this is his 17th appearance of 2020 but just his third 'start.' He was used for just 1.1 innings in each of his first two. His ERA (1.85), WHIP (0.86), KW ratio (25-3) and BAA (.202) are ALL impressive numbers but note that he's pitched a total of just 24.1 innings.

The Phillies are hardly a favorite to grab that final NL wild card spot but "hope springs eternal" heading into this contest. Is Wheeler really the "big time" starter the Phillies think he is? I'm NOT sure about that but I do expect him to pitch VERY well here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Tulane/Southern Miss Over at 2:30 ET.

Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marks the first time Tulane has posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. QB Justin McMillan could be erratic but he passed for 2,444 yards (17 TDs / 10 INTs) and was the team's leading rusher with 745 yards (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs). The bottom line is this, he led Tulane to 33.1 PPG on 449.3 YPG, as both totals rank third-best in school history for a single season. New QB Keon Howard is off to a poor start, completing just 43.6% for 299 yards without a TD and one INT in Tulane's 1-1 start. The Good news on offense has been redshirt freshman Tyler Spears running for 224 yards on 7.7 YPC. Tulane's first game saw them win 27-24 at South Alabama but then lose last Saturday at home to Navy. Tulane led that game 24-0 at the half, before Navy scored the game's final 27 points with the game-winning 33 -yard FG coming at 0:00!

Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old.

The Golden Eagles had seemingly bounced back with strong effort last week at home vs La Tech, as they led 27-10 towards the end of the third quarter. However, La Tech drove 74 yards in 17 plays to score the winning TD with 14 seconds to go, stealing a 31-30 win. QB Jack Abraham has been very good, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 578 yards with three TDs and just one INT. However, the running game is non-existent, averaging 112.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 31.5 PPG on YPG 453.5 YPG.

These two schools met in last season's Armed Forces Bowl, with Tulane winning 30-13. Sure, Southern Miss is playing with revenge but it' hard to trust this year's team at the moment. Then again, Tulane clearly needs to bounce-back from its disastrous second-half collapse against Navy. The Southern Miss defense is clearly vulnerable and Tulane QB Howard is a Southern Miss transfer, who HAS to be looking forward to playing against his former team. As noted above, Southern Miss QB Abraham has looked sharp and I'm expecting a high-scoring game. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET.

Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener.

This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards.

We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back.

With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET.

The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami.

Pitt  head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation.

That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. 

The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson).

Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and  after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation).

NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET

David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' 

The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory.

Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone.

Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019.

Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number.

Good luck...Larry