Larry Ness

My free play is on Purdue at 3:30 ET.

This season is looking like it might be a special one for Iowa and that's saying something. Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by 4 points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa has opened 6-0 (3-0 in the Big Ten) and has already defeated three ranked opponents, No. 17 Indiana, No. 9 Iowa State and No. 4 Penn State. The Hawkeyes rallied past the Nittany Lions 23-20 last Saturday, as QB Spencer Petras found Nico Ragaini with a 44-yard touchdown pass with 6:26 remaining. Iowa has won 12 games in a row (10-2 ATS) and has captured NINE straight contests against Big Ten opponents. This past Sunday, the Hawkeyes rose to No. 2 in the AP poll, the school's highest ranking since being No. 1 back in 1985.

Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. Purdue (3-2, 1-1 in Big Ten) has scored just 13 points in each of its last three games. Two of those contests were losses, including a 20-13 home defeat to Minnesota on Oct 2 in its most recent game. The Boilermakers outgained the Golden Gophers 448-294 but were doomed by mistakes, allowing four sacks and committing two turnovers in the red zone. Purdue also lost 27-13 at Notre Dame on Sep 18.

Iowa QB Petras can be shaky but he's completing 60.7% for 1,138 yards with nine TDs and most importantly, only two INTs. RB Goodson has 518 yards on 4.2 YPC with 5 TDs for a running attack that is pretty mediocre, averaging 123.3 YPG (99th). However, it's Kirk Ferentz's defense that ranks fourth in the nation (and first in the Big Ten) in scoring defense (13.0 PPG) on 274.0 YPG (7th). The team's ability to force turnovers has become a big story, as Iowa leads the nation in turnovers forced (20), interceptions (16) and turnover margin (+15). not a bad trifecta!

Purdue comes to Iowa City and could stick with Aidan O'Connell. He started at QB in place of the inconsistent Jack Plummer and went 33 of 51 for 357 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to Minnesota. However, Plummer has completed 69.5% with seven TDs and no INTs. We'll see. Either way, WR David Bell (six catches for 120 yards) topped 2,000 yards receiving for his career and certainly will be a focus of the Hawkeyes' defensive game plan. Iowa won't be too worried about a Purdue running game that is averaging 90.2 YPG (122nd). What Iowa's offense will have to worry about is a Purdue defense that is allowing 15.4 PPG (8th) on 300.8 YPG (15th)

Iowa is overdue for a "let down" spot and off the Penn St win and facing a rested Purdie team (was off last weekend), this could be the week/game! The Boilermakers hold a 49-39-2 advantage in the series, including THREE wins in the previous four games. The last time Purdue faced the nation's No. 2 team (back on Oct 20, 2018), the Boilermakers scored a resounding 49-20 victory over Ohio State in West Lafayette. OK, Purdue's NOT at home this time around but I'm taking the double digit points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET.

Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games.

To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10.

Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th).

Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET.

Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona.

Washington saw head coach Chris Petersen retire after the 2019 season, having gone 55-26 in six seasons (six bowls). Jimmy Lake took over (his first-ever head coaching gig) in 2020 and was 3-1 in a COVID-riddled season. Washington was expected to contend for the Pac 12 North title (some had them the favorite) but the Huskies opened with an embarrassing 13-7 home loss to Montana (FCS), then fell 31-10 at Michigan in Week 2. The Huskies then smashed Arkansas State 52-3 and beat California 31-24, before then falling to Oregon State 27-24 in their last outing before their bye.

UCLA's Thompson-Robinson is a talented dual threat at QB, passing for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He has added 242 rushing yards and four TDs, UCLA has a strong running game, averaging 224.5 YPG (18th), led by RBs Charbonnet (566 yards / 6.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and Brown (442 yards / 6.3 YPC / 4 TDs). The defense is nothing special, allowing 26.5 PPG (75th) on 401.0 YPG (83rd).

Washington QB Morris is average, throwing for 1,262 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. The running game offers little help, averaging 116.6 YPG (105th), led by McGrew (just 188 yards but averaging 4.9 YPC and 6 TDs). The Washington offense averages a modest 24.8 PPG (92nd) but the defense is strong, allowing 19.6 PPG (29th) on 326.8 YPG (35th).

The Pac-12 North leader is 2-1 Oregon St, so the 1-1 Huskies are far from 'done,' with seven conference games remaining. Off a bye week (note: UCLA is on a 7-2 ATS run off a bye), a win here is almost a MUST! Washington's last-second, 27-24 loss at Oregon State back on Oct 2 still 'stings!'. UCLA has gone 2-0 on the road in 2021, although one win came at Arizona, which has lost 17 in a row? However, I will not ignore the fact that entering this season, the Bruins were just 5-21 SU on the road since 2016! In that same time frame, Washington is 28-6 SU in Husky Stadium. A SU win here virtually guarantees an ATS win. Take Washington.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET.

4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game.

Pitt comes to town off a satisfying 52-21 win over Georgia Tech. QB Kenny Pickett is having an OUTSTANDING season, having completed 72% of his passes for 1,731 yards with 19 TDs and one INT. interceptions. Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis each have 200-plus rushing yards for a running game that's averaging 169.0 YPG on the ground. WR Addison has 29 catches, averaging 18.1 YPC and his nine TD grabs are tied for 1st among FBS players. Pittsburgh is averaging 52.4 PPG and has scored at least 41 points in all five of its games, which is the longest stretch in program history. The defense is allowing 22.6 PPG (49th), which 'works well' when the offense is averaging 50-plus points.

Virginia Tech is led by QB Braxton Burmeister, who is a true double threat. He has completed 58.8% of his passes for 930 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Burmeister also leads the team in rushing with 193 yards and has added two rushing TDs. As has been typical over the years, the Hokies have been strong defensively this season, allowing an average of just 18.6 PPG (24th).

Getting the job done on the road in Blacksburg is a lot easier said than done, despite Pickett being an amazing talent. It's hard to imagine Pitt "looking past" the Hokies on Saturday, but with home games upcoming against Clemson and Miami next, the possibility definitely exists. The last time these longtime rivals were both unbeaten in conference play when they met came back on Nov.2, 2002, when they were both 3-0 in the Big East. I'm going to grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.

Michigan State is coming off a 31-13 win at Rutgers. The offense has been sparked throughout the season by freshman RB Kenneth Walker III, who leads the nation in rushing with 913 yards (7.1 YPC) and nine TDs. QB Peyton Thorne has provided more than just a little stability, completing 62.4% for 1,575 yards with 14 TDs to two INTs. The offense is averaging 36.7 PPG (27th) with excellent balance, passing for 26.9 YPG and rushing for 219.2 YPG. The defense allows just 19.3 PPG (27) but there may be a concern in the fact that the stop-unit is also allowing 420.4 YPG (94th!).

Michael Penix Jr suffered a separated AC joint in his throwing shoulder during Indiana's 24-0 loss at Penn State on Oct 2 and is not likely to play in this one. Jack Tuttle, who went 1-1 as a starter last season and has passed for 564 yards and 3 TDs in three seasons at Indiana, will likely play. Honestly, the Hoosiers may be better off without Penix in the short term. The running game has shown little, averaging 127.2 PPG (100th) and the offense is scoring a modest 23.8 PPG (99th). The defense checks in allowing 28.2 PPG (90th).

So why take the Hoosiers? MSU has had a very favorable schedule so far, getting wins against four underachievers in 2021 like Northwestern, Miami-Fl, Nebraska and Rutgers. The team is on the road for the second straight week with a bye on tap and then it's the team's "Game of the Year" at home vs Michigan on Oct 30. Naturally, the last thing MSU wants is to be coming off a loss heading into the Michigan game but I believe the Spartans are vulnerable here. Indiana is a MUCH better team than it's shown and has played the more difficult schedule. Michigan State has beaten Indiana in 10 of the past 12 meetings but lost at home 24-0 to Indiana last season. 17 starters are back from that Indiana team and the Hoosiers are coming off a bye week. This a HUGE game for Indiana's season and it's Homecoming! I'm telling you, the Michigan St defense can be had! This home dog may just 'bark' VERY loudly on Saturday. Take the points. 

 
Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Saturday O/U is on Toledo/Central Michigan Over at 3:30 ET

Toledo and Central Michigan are both 3-3 (1-1 in the MAC), as both teams meet Saturday in Mount Pleasant hungry for a win. Toledo smashed Norfolk in its opener 49-10, but then it suffered back-to-back losses, falling 32-29 at Notre Dame (excellent effort) and then 22-6 to Colorado State. The Rockets then bounced-back with victories over Ball State and UMass, before last week's 22-20 loss to NIU (a 'killer,' as the Huskies kicked the game-winning FG with 26 seconds remaining). CMU lost 34-24 to Missouri in its opener, before hammering Robert Morris 45-0. The Chips then lost to LSU 49-21, beat FIU 31-27 and lost 28-7 to Miami Ohio. Last Saturday's 30-27 win over Ohio came with CMU scoring the game's final 10 points.

Bradley and Finn have both been used at the QB position by Toledo (combined 7-1 TD/INT ratio) but it was Finn who passed for two TDs last week. Fin is by far the better runner, gaining 281 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs. RB Koback ran for 1,187 yards last year with 14 TDs (includes two TD catches) and has 455 yards on 5.2 YPC with five TDs this season. CMU has also used two QBS in Sirmon and Richardson but it's Richardson who has thrown for 859 yards the last three games with six TDs and two INTs.

Toledo averages 28.5 PPG and CMU 28.0 PPG but Toledo owns the much better defense, holding opponents to 17.5 PPG to CMU allowing 27.5 PPG. Toledo has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two MAC-West schools and I expect the Rockets to get a MUCH-needed win off last week's crushing loss to West-leader Northern Illinois (2-0). However, shutting down CMU won't be easy with Richardson playing very well (see above) and RB Nichols (591 yards on 5.1 YPC) adding excellent balance to the CMU attack.

This game has "Shootout" written all over it. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET.

Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that!

Danny Gonzales took over at New Mexico in 2020 and because of COVID missed spring practice and then the MWC originally decided not to play in 2020. When the league did decide to return, the New Mexico governor decided to ban athletics, so the Lobos never played a single game in New Mexico. The team started 0-5 but did win its final two games, 17-16 over Wyoming (+18) and 49-39 over Fresno St (+12). 17 starters returned for 2021 and the Lobos opened with home wins over Houston Baptist and New Mexico St. However, they've followed with three straight losses, as CSU comes to town for the school's Homecoming game. 

Rams QB Centeio has thrown for 1,039 yards with five TDs and just one INT plus has run for 203 yards. Bailey (260 yards) and Vivens (232 yards) join Centeio with over 200 yards, as CSU averages 170.8 YPG on the ground. However, the Rams are averaging a modest 22.4 PPG (107th). The good news is that the defense is allowing only 22.0 PPG (23rd) on 328.8 YPG (36th).

Trey Wilson is the Lobos starter at QB, passing for 1,058 yards with seven TDs and four INTs. He's got a pair of solid RBs in Dumas (284 yards on 5.0 YPC) and Cole (3231 yards on 3.6 YPC) but the offense is averaging only 15.2 PPG (128th) on 282.7 YPG (125th). The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (84th).

OK, Colorado St has won 10 straight over New Mexico (8-2 ATS) but the Rams had trouble finishing off drives against San Jose St (settled for SIX field goals) plus CSU's best RB (Bailey) is questionable for this game. The Rams take the field Saturday night for the first of three road games in a four-game stretch and it's HARD to ignore that CSU is just 4-12 SU in its last 16 road games. Yes, the Rams may win (making it 11 straight over New Mexico) but it will NOT be a 'walk in the park." I just think this is too many points for this Colorado State team to be giving up on the road to a 'hungry' New Mexico side looking form its first ATS win of 2021, after an 0-6 start. I'm expecting a very tight battle until the final whistle. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry