Larry Ness

My 1* Free Play is on Air Force (9:00 EST).

Boise State is 8-10 and it enters this one “reeling” after three straight losses. Most recently it fell to Fresno State. A bright spot in the most recent setback was the play of Alex Hobbs, who had 15 points and four assists. Only one other player would score in double figures though.

Air Force fans can empathize. The Falcons are 7-11 after falling 67-52 to a tough Nevada team last time out. Previous to that Air Force had won two straight. Lavelle Scottie was a standout in a losing cause to Nevada with 15 points and seven boards. 

I think home court is a significant factor working in favor of Air Force tonight between these two struggling teams. The Falcons are a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss and they’re 13-5 ATS in their last 18 at home.

Conversely the Broncos have struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games following a three games or longer SU losing streak.

In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Butler at 7:00 ET.

All are aware that Villanova has won TWO of the last three national championships and with less than two months remaining until Selection Sunday, the Wildcats are beginning to at least partially, resemble those  previous teams. Villanova lost four players off last season's national championship team to the NBA, guards Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo plus forwards Mikal Bridges and Omari Spellman. However, since suffering back-to-back losses to Penn and Kansas, the Wildcats have handily beaten UConn (an old Big East rival) and followed with five straight wins in Big East play (14-4 / 5-0 Big East). They vie for their seventh straight victory when they visit Butler on Tuesday The Bulldogs won at DePaul Jan 16  (much-needed 1st road win of the season) and then took down St John's 80-71 at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Saturday. Butler has gone 'dancing' in 10 of the previous 12 seasons but will need to finish strong to keep to do so again this campaign (Butler is just 12-7 / 3-3 in Big East).

Seniors Phil Booth (18.4 & 3.8 APG) and Eric Paschall  (16.6 & 6.4) combine to average 35 points per game, while Collin Gillespie (11.4 points) has come on strong with 32 points over his last two contests. However, the trio are Villanova's only double digit scorers. Guard Booth has averaged 24.0 points in the past four games, while the 6-8 Eric Paschall has averaged 20.0 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in the Wildcats' five conference games. 

Butler coming off a quality 80-71 victory over St. John's on Saturday, as Kamar Baldwin scored a season-high 30 points and grabbed eight rebounds. He leads the team in scoring at 17.7 PPG (adds 5.7 RPG) and is beginning to get some solid help. George Washington transfer Paul Jorgensen joins him in the backcourt to average 12.3 PPG and PG Thompson has been solid, averaging 6.2 & 4.2 APG. Another guard, McDermott, averages 10.4 PPG. McDermott had 12 rebounds against St John's but the bigger news was that the 6-7 Tucker, the highly-touted Duke transfer, came off the bench to score a career-best 24 points. He's now averaging 10.4 & 5.5 in 10 games since becoming eligible in mid-December.

Butler is looking for its THIRD straight win over Villanova in the friendly Hinkle Fieldhouse and why can't the Bulldosg get it?  Butler is 9-1 SU at home this season, which is no surprise. After all, Butler entered the season having gone 53--12 at home the previous four seasons (clearly, settling into Big East play). Upset? Not really!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida St at 7:00 ET.

Florida State lost 80-78 to then-No. 1 Duke on Jan 12 and actually jumped from 13th to 11th in the AP poll released on Jan 14. However, after road losses this past week at Pittsburgh(75-62) and Bocton College (87-82), FSU fell out of yesterday's latest AP poll (surprisingly, FSU checked in at No. 23 in the coaches' poll). The Seminoles return home tonight to host 11-6 Clemson, which at 1-3 in the ACC, is ahead of FSU in the league standings (Seminoles are one of five teams at the bottom of the league with a 1-4 mark). Clemson comes into this contest having just snapped a three-game slide of its own, with a 72-60 home win over Georgia Tech on Wednesday.

Senior guard Marcquise Reed scored a career-high 30 points on 10-of-13 shooting while recording four steals against Ga Tech, as Clemson notched its first conference victory.

Reed leads the team in scoring at 19.7 PPG and adds 5.4 RPG. Senior forward Elijah Thomas is second in scoring at 13.1 per game, plus leads the Tigers with 7.7 RPG. Guard Mitchell is Clemson's only other player in double digits, averaging 11.9 PPG and a team-high 3.2 APG.Clemson averages a modest 71.5 PPG on the season (240th).

FSU has yet to recover from its "close but no cigar" two-point loss at Duke. The team's malaise was evident in its last outing, when FSU led by 10 points at BC at halftime but couldn’t get second half stops, as the Eagles went on to win, 87-82. Mfiondu Kabengele, a 6-10 sophomore, leads a balanced attack with 12.6 PPG, after posting a career-high 26 at Boston College. Senior guard Terance Mann is second on the scoring list at 11.6 PPG. Then there is junior PG Trent Forest (9.9-4.9-3.6), who is averaging 14 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his last two contests. However, 6-8 Mike Cofer's foot injury could hurt. He had a breakout season last year (12.8 & 5.1) but has played only seven games this year.

It's time for Leonard Hamilton's team to "put up or shut up." FSU was ranked 17th in the AP's preseason poll (ranked 15th by the Blue Ribbon Yearbook) and climbed as high as No. 9 in the AP poll in early January. Finding themselves as one of five teams at the bottom of the ACC at 1-4, is unacceptable. However, Clemson should play the perfect foil here, as the Tigers are playing just their fourth true road game of the season, averaging only 66.3 PPG. Meanwhile, FSU is  8-1 SU at home (lone loss being that two-pointer against Duke), outscoring opponents 82.6-to-69.7 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Revenge Rout is on USF at 8:00 ET.

South Florida saw its seven-game home win streak snapped Saturday as then-No. 21 Houston (now 17th) was too much for the Bulls to handle in a 69-60 loss. It was USF's third straight loss and fourth in five games but the Bulls are 12-6. Not impressed? Let me remind you that USF was 10-22 last year, following seasons of nine, eight and seven wins! The Bulls welcome fellow AAC rival Wichita St to the Yuengling Center tonight. The Shockers are just 8-9, including 1-4 in the AAC. That record is more than a little surprising, considering that Gregg Marshall's team entered the year having won 25 games or more the last NINE seasons (includes an NIT title in 2011 and seven straight NCAA bids, including a Final 4 appearance in 2013).

Markis McDuffie, 6-8 senior, did the heavy lifting offensively in Marshall's 66-55 home loss to Cincinnati, scoring 21 points on 7 of-14 shooting. The problem being, the rest of his team totaled just 34 points on 38 shots. McDuffie averages 19.6 & 5.2 but only guard Haynes-Jones (13.0) joins him in double digits. The 6-11 Jaime Echenique, a JUCO transfer, leads the team in rebounding at 5.4 (averages 8.5).

Brian Gregory's team won just 10 times last season but he's made great strides this season, already owning 12 wins (despite just one win in the team's last five contests). PG LaQuincy Rideauis a Gardner-Webb  transfer,  averages 14.3 PPG, 5.6 APG and 3.3 steals per game. He's joined in the backcourt by sophomore guard David Collins, who leads the team in scoring at 14.8 PPG. Finally free of eligibility issues, the the 6-7 Alexis Yetna checks in with 12.7 PPG and 11.2 RPG.

Marshall not only lost four starters from last year's team but entered the season having lost two assistants. Witchita State is hard to beat at Charles Koch Arena  but the Shockers are 0-4 SU on the road this season, going 1-3 ATS (pointspread win was plus-10 at Houston in a nine-point loss). Wichita St has been outscored on average, 78.5-to-61.5 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, USF is an impressive 10-2 SU at home (no real impost to worry about here). Let me note that the disparity in free throw attempts in Wichita State’s 66-55 home loss to Cincinnati on Saturday (35 attempts by Cincy to 7 for WSU)l ed to head coach Gregg Marshall and freshman Erik Stevenson receiving a pair of crucial technical fouls with 5:31 to play that turned a five-point deficit into an 11-point Bearcats lead. FT disparity could come to play here, as well. No American Athletic Conference team has made or attempted more free throws this season than USF (329-for-527), while no team in the AAC has made or attempted fewer than Wichita State (207-for-295).

Good luck...Larry