Larry Ness

My 9* Late Breaker is on the Arz D'backs at 7:40 ET.

Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022, coming off a 71-91 season last year. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss." The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941).

The D'backs and Cubs begin a four-game series tonight in Wrigley Field, with Arizona sitting 18-21 and the Cubs 15-21. However, while the D'backs enter on a six-game slide, the Cubs have won THREE straight series (6-3 in individual games). Arizona beat Chicago 4-3 at Chase Field on Friday the 13th but have since lost SIX in a row, the last two games of its series with the Cubs and then FOUR straight in Dodger Stadium against LA (note: D'backs had won 12 f 16 prior to their six-game skid). As for the Cubs, they enter this series winning two of three against San Diego, Arizona and Pittsburgh.

All that said, I REALLY like Arizona's chances here to break its slide. Zac Gallen (2-0, 1.05 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and he's been one of MLB's best pitchers this season. He's made six starts (D'backs are 4-2), allowing just four ERs over 34.1 IP, while allowing only 18 hits. He's got a 35-5 KW ratio, a 0.67 WHIP and opponents are batting a miniscule .150 against him. The Cubs counter with Marcus Stroman (1-3, 5.13 ERA), who will be activated off the COVID-19 injury list and takes the mound for the first time since May 1. I've always believed Stroman is HIGHLY overrated and his record says it all. He will take the mound with a respectable 3.67 ERA but his lifetime record is only 62-63.

Great spot for Gallen to lead the way as Arizona breaks its six-game slide. Cubs Lose! Cubs Lose!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET.

The Celtics knew that they were going to play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals without Defensive POY Marcus Smart (15.0 & 6.2 APG this postseason) with a midfoot sprain) but big man Al Horford (13.0 & 9.4) was a late scratch. due to COVID-19 protocols. Boston got off to a strong start, with Tatum scoring 21 points in the first half and Robert Willaims playing for the first time since Game 3 vs Milwaukee (he wound up with 18 & 9). The Celtics led by EIGHT points at the half but then didn't make a field goal in the first six minutes of the third quarter. Miami outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the third quarter and concluded it with a 39-14 advantage (Boston ended the quarter 2 of 15 from the floor!).

Miami star Jimmy Butler had 17 points in the third quarter, 27 in the second half and finished the game with 41 points (he also contributed nine rebounds, five assists, four steals and three blocked shots). The guard trio of starters Vincent (17) and Strus (11) plus Herro (18) off the bench. Butler now has three 40-point outings this postseason, averaging 29.8-7.7-5.4. Tatum finished with 29 points for Boston (just eight in the second half), while sidekick Brown added 24 & 10. I noted earlier that Robet Williams (10.0 & 9.6 in the regular season) was excellent in his return to the starting lineup (see above) but with Smart out, White made his second start of the postseason and scored just THREE points in 29 minutes. In his first start (stepping in for Smart), he was scoreless in 28 minutes. However, Smart is expected to play in Game 3 and White will come off the bench (he's averaged 7.7 PPG as a reserve this postseason).

So far, Miami is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this postseason, but the Celtics closed the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games, losing back-to-back games just ONCE. Here in the postseason, they have not lost back-to-back games in 12 playoff games. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Getaway Day Play is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET.

The Reds beat the Guardians 5-4 (10 inn) Tuesday night and will attempt to complete a sweep of Cleveland when the teams wrap of a two-game interleague series on Thursday (Wednesday's game was rained out). Cincinnati has won SEVEN of its last 11 games but the team's dreadful 3-22 start figures to leave them in the hole for most of the season. Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021. The Guardians won EIGHT of 10 to reach 15-14 through May 9 but have now lost FOUR of five to fall back to 16-18.

The Reds will hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (2-4, 5.89 ERA), while Cal Quantrill (1-2, 3.93 ERA) will start for the Guardians. This is the same pitching matchup scheduled for Wednesday. Mahle opened the season 1-4 in six starts (team was 1-5) with a 7.01 ERA. He's been much better his last two, going 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA (Reds won both games) but both starts have come against Pittsburgh. Mahle enters tonight's game 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in four career starts against the Guardians (Reds are 0-4!). This is Quantrill's 4th MLB season, and he was 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 2021 (40 appearances, including 22 starts). His 3.93 ERA is not all that bad but Cleveland is only 2-4 in his six starts. He's only faced the Reds once, allowing three ERs over six innings in 2019.

The Guardians won BOTH meetings in Cincinnati (10-5 and 7-3) back on April 12 & 13 and grab the "W" (one day later than planned) after a one-run loss on Tuesday night.

Good luck...Larry