Larry Ness

My free play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:40 ET.

When Klay Thompson went down before the start of the 2020-21 season, not much was expected from the Warriors, who were coming off a 15-50 season (worst in the NBA). However, led by the remarkable Steph Curry, Golden St is 28-28 and has an excellent chance to be part of the West's "Play-In" tournament (7-10 seeds play for the No. 7 and N0. 8 playoff seeds). The Celtics were expected to be among the East's top teams but after back-to-back home losses to New Orleans and Dallas, stood just 23-25 through the end of March. However, the Celtics have won SEVEN of eight and are currently 30-26, tied with the Hawks for the East's No. 4 seed.

Golden State has won four in a row, including two straight to open a five-game trip. Curry (30.7-5.5-5.9) has scored 32 or more points in each of his last nine games and he has averaged 41.5 points during Golden State's current winning streak. Wiggins (18.1 & 4.8) and Oubre (15,3 & 6.0) had been excellent 'sidekicks' all season. Boston is back healthy, led by Tatum (25.6-7.1-4.2), Brown (24.6-5.8-3.4), Walker (17.6 & 5.1 APG) and Smart (13.4 & 5.6 APG).

This game is a rematch of a 111-107 Celtics win in San Francisco back on Feb 2. Curry had 38 points in the loss, but he missed his last two shots in the final 45 seconds to stall a Warriors comeback. That marked Boston's fourth straight win over the Warriors and I say the Celtics make it FIVE wins a row, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Marlins at 6:10 ET.

The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29 (just two games better than San Francisco), made the expanded playoffs. 

The Giants opened the 2021 season 6-3 but last night's 4-1 loss in Miami drops them to 8-5. Not bad for a team that ranks 28th in spring (3.23 RPG) and 28th in team batting (.203). In contrast, the Marlins got off to a 1-6 start but have since won FIVE of their last six games, including last night's win. Saturday's starters are the Giants' Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 2.45 ERA). Both have pitched well so far but have gotten little support.

Some remember Sanchez from the 2016 season when went 15-2 for Toronto while winning the American League ERA title (3.00). However, from 2016-19 he was just 10-23, as injuries plagued him. An MRI revealed a torn capsule in his right shoulder in August of 2019 and he missed the rest of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season. Sanchez agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in February of 2021. He's pitched five innings in each of his 2021 starts (three ERs allows) but the Giants have lost 3-0 and 3-1.

Miami's Alcantara has felt the pain of non-support in 2021, as well. He's got a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and has held opponents to a .159 BAA in three 2021 starts. However, the Marlins scored just TWO runs in his first two starts combined (both team losses) and then gave him just ONE run vs Atlanta (6.1 IP / 3 ERs), before rallying after he left to win 5-3 in 10 innings. Alcantara is considered Miami's ace and is OVERDUE for some support. He shouldn't need much as he owns a 1.32 ERA in three career appearances against the Giants, including two starts. Both starts came in 2019, with him allowing one ER in 13 innings (0.69 ERA). Remember, he's facing a 'tooth-less' San Francisco offense (see above).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Afternoon Delight (IL Game of the Month) is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. Cleveland arrived in Cincinnati on Friday at 7-5 on the season but having won 10 of its last 12 games against the Reds (since July 2018). As for the Reds, they averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates in  their season-opening homestand. However, they followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco.

Glad to be back home, the Reds' Joey Votto hit a two-run HR to highlight a seven-run third inning, allowing Cincy to cruise to a 10-3 victory. Taking the mound in the second contest of this three-game series will be Cleveland's Triston McKenzie (0-0, 4.70 ERA) and Cincy's Sonny Gray (2021 debut). McKenzie is a promising 23-year-old, who is beginning his first full major league season. He made his first 2021 appearance in relief, then yielded a three-run HR but then allowed just one other hit while striking out six with two walks over four innings of a 4-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Monday,

Gray had back-to-back 14-win seasons with the A's 2014 & 2015) but never built on that the next four seasons. However, when he signed with The Reds in 2019, he went 11-8 in 31 starts (teams was 19-12), posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.08. He got off to a great start in 2020 (1.94 ERA through the end of August) but was 'lit up' in four September starts, posting an 'ugly' 8.79 ERA. A strained back muscle has delayed Gray's first start here in 2021 but he's ready to go. He pitched at the club's alternate site in Louisville and threw 84 pitches in a simulated outing last weekend. "When you come back, you hit the ground running -- let's go," Gray told the Reds' official website. "That's kind of where we're at with that." He won't be on a pitch or inning limitation Saturday, according to the Reds.

Gray owns a 3.15 ERA in 10 regular-season starts vs the Indians and takes the mound in front of a team that is 6-1 at home, averaging 9.6 runs and batting .321 with 16 HRs. In contrast, rookie McKenzie is 'begging' for some offensive support, as the Indians have totaled only 10 runs for their starting pitchers while the club has split its last six games. Reds Win! Reds Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Goin' Over Total is on Min/LAA Over at 9:07 ET.

The Twins entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The Twins started 3-1 this season but after last night's 10-3 loss to the Angels, will take the field on Saturday just 6-8. The Angels matched a franchise best with their 6-2 start but are currently a more modest 8-5. It should be pointed out that the Angels entered the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns.

Taking the mound tonight will be Minnesota's Matt Shoemaker (1-0, 4.09 ERA), who will be making his first start at Angel Stadium since Sept 30, 2018, when he was a member of the Angels. Left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 16.20 ERA) will start for Los Angeles. Shoemaker looked like a breakout star back in 2014, when he was 16-4 (3.04 ERA / 1.07 WHIP) for the Angels. However, that seems like decades ago, these days. He's been limited to just 20 starts since 2018, including two this season. In that stretch, he's just 6-3 but with a respectable 3.81 ERA,

Quintana had a 13-win season for the White Sox in 2016 plus back-to-back 13-win seasons for the Cubs in 2018 and 2019. The Angels had hoped his reunion with manager Joe Maddon would be "good news" but he has struggled in his first two efforts, failing to last at least four innings in either one. He gave up four runs in 3.1 innings while getting a no-decision against the Houston Astros, then gave up seven runs (five earned) in 1.2 innings in a loss to Toronto (16.20 ERA / 3.40 WHIP / .370 BAA).

Will things get better for Quintana? They had better but I wouldn't expect it here, as he owns.4.05 ERA in 21 career starts against the Twins. As for Shoemaker, it's his first game against his ex-team and the Angels rank 4th in both runs scored (5.46 per) and team BA (.265). This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry