Larry Ness

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST).

LeBron James is 6-0 in the East Finals when down 2-0 throughout his 15 years in the NBA.

So James has more points, assists, steals, blocks and every other stat in this series than the rest of his other starting teammates combined. If Cleveland has any shot at making it back into this series, “The King” is going to need a couple of his guys to “step up” in Game 3.

I’ve played Cleveland over the first two games of this series, and I’m obviously 0-2. However, with Cleveland's backs against the wall I do now definitely feel that the Cavs will answer the bell with their best overall effort yet.

Boston has been playing unbelievably and no one is more surprised than myself by its performance. But Game 3 sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Celtics if I’ve ever seen it. 

So far, Boston is shooting 45 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including 35.8 percent in the series. Jaylen Brown had 23 points and seven boards in the latest victory, Terry Rozier added 18 points and big man Al Horford continued to be a difference maker as well with 15 points and 10 boards. Six different Boston players scored in double figures in Game 2  

James exploded for 42 points, 10 boards and 12 assists in the Game 2 setback and there’s no question that James will be expecting his teammates to step up and respond in kind in Game 3 (note: Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 boards.)

Note as well that Boston is a poor 11-17 ATS in its last 28 after playing three consecutive home games, while Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back ATS losses to the same team.

There’s no way that the Cavs go down without a fight. This one has blowout written all over it. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 1* Free Play is on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST).

Off their 8-3 loss last night, I expect the Twins to bounce back on Saturday.

The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.00) who looks poised for regression in my opinion after an unreal debut at Coors Field, striking out 13 over 5.2 scoreless innings on Saturday. The sky is the limit for Peralta, but clearly the sample size is too small to get an accurate read on the rookie yet. 

The home side counters with Fernando Romero (2-0, 0.54) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks with five K’s over five innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Angels on Sunday. So far Romero has conceded just one run with 20 K’s over 16.2 innings of work. 

For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” 

I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 5-2 in its last seven after allowing eight or more runs in its previous contest. 

All things being equal here, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup either.

Consider Minnesota in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:15 EST).

I think it’s a great time to pull the trigger against the over-priced Yanks.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (6-1, 2.14 ERA) who comes in off a win against the A’s on Sunday, allowing one earned run off five hits over six innings. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Severino, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that regression is imminent at some point for the hard-throwing right-hander and as mentioned off the top, I think he’s over-valued in this one.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (1-5, 6.51) who will be eager to get back on track after a humbling start in which he was rocked for nine earned runs off eight hits over 3.1 innings against the hard-hitting Indians on Sunday. 

Duffy has struggled with game-to-game consistency (it was his fourth start in which he’s conceded at least fives earned runs), however he does have a pair of starts in which he’s held his opposition to one earned run or fewer. And note that despite his struggles this year, Duffy is still a decent 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA in all “night” games.

I think the conditions are right for the upset. Grab the Royals on Saturday night!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (4-1, 2.53 ERA) who comes in off his first loss of the year, allowing four runs off six hits and a walk along with eight K’s to Milwaukee on Monday. 

Corbin has been better than expected overall this year though and there’s no reason not to think that the southpaw won’t be able to bounce back here and improve upon his already impressive 2-1, 2.90 ERA in all “night” games to this point.

The home side counters with the volatile Stephen Matz (1-3, 3.86) who gave up one run off five hits and four walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Friday. The leftie threw just 54 of his 95 pitches for strikes and he walked more batters than he struck out. Note that so far Matz is just 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA in all night games and only 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA at home.

Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 60-46 (+15.2 units) against left-handed starters the last two seasons, while New York is just 40-47 (-8.4 units) in the same position and time span.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jon Gray (4-5, 4.85 ERA) who was rocked for six earned runs off ten hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers and while Gray once again fell victim to the altitude, I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Chris Stratton (4-3, 4.88) who picked up a win in his last outing despite not being at his best, giving up four runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out one over five innings against the Reds on Monday. Stratton has struggled of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still a sharp 4-2 with a respectable 3.89 ERA in all night contests this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is just 6-9 (-2.3 units) this season in all day games, while San Francisco is 6-3 (+3.4 units) in its last nine day contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals (7:15 EST).

So far the visiting team is 4-0 in this series and I fully expect that trend to carry over here. The pressure is now on Washington to respond after wasting its 2-0 series lead with back-to-back losses at home. A date on the road is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked for the Capitals though, as so far they’re 7-1 in the playoffs away from friendly confines.

I said before this series started that whichever team’s goaltender plays better would most likely be the difference and so far that’s been the case over the first four games.

The Capitals’ Braden Holtby (10-5, 2.24 GAA) looked much better in Game’s 1 and 2, while the Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskly (10-4, 2.63) looked fantastic in the Nation’s capital in Game’s 3 and 4. 

Overall Washington comes into this one averaging 3.56 goals in the playoffs, while conceding 2.75. 

Tampa is averaging 3.36 goals in the postseason and conceding 2.69. 

Both teams have responded well in this spot for bettors all year long, but the double revenge factor of losing back-to-back games, combined with the other extremely strong trends I’ve listed above, make the Capitals just too good to turn down in this “plus-money” spot. 

Great value, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* EAST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 EST).

So far LeBron James has more points, assists, steals, blocks and every other stat in this series than the rest of his other starting teammates combined. If Cleveland has any shot at making it back into this series, “The King” is going to need a couple of his guys to “step up” in Game 3.

So far I’ve played Cleveland over the first two games of this series, and I’m obviously 0-2. However, with Cleveland's backs against the wall I do now definitely feel that the Cavs will answer the bell with their best overall effort yet.

Boston has been playing unbelievably and no one is more surprised than myself by its performance. But with the home side looking to push the pace of Game 3 from start to finish, the Celtics are going to be forced to match that effort. 

The C’s would outscore the Cavs 36-22 in the third quarter in Game 2. So far, Boston is shooting 45 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including 35.8 percent in the series. Jaylen Brown had 23 points and seven boards in the latest victory, Terry Rozier added 18 points and big man Al Horford continued to be a difference maker as well with 15 points and 10 boards. Six different Boston players scored in double figures in Game 2  

James exploded for 42 points, 10 boards and 12 assists in the Game 2 setback and there’s no question that James will be expecting his teammates to step up and respond in kind in Game 3 (note: Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 boards. It’s interesting to note that LeBron James is 6-0 when down 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals throughout his career. I think the shift in venue is the difference maker as far as the total is concerned tonight, as all signs point to a shootout between these two hungry teams. However, the Cavs are a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS at home this year (regular and post season).

In conclusion, no way the Cavs go quietly here. The team's guard trio of Hill (3 of 8 / 1-4 on threes), Korver (4 of 11 / 2 of 7) and Smith (2 of 16 / 0 of 7) can't possibly be this bad again at home. The Cavs are an 'ugly' 14 of 57 on threes (24.6%) as a team this series, after shooting 37.2 percent during the regular season. The Cavs have struggled ATS at home but have averaged 110.3 PPG all season on their homecourt. After averaging a pathetic 88.5 PPG in losing Games 1 and 2, anyone really think the Cavs won't 'light up the scoreboard' in this one? Of course, considering the Cavs are allowing 108.8 PPG at home, one can see why their ATS mark is so poor. However, that means the "average" final score of a Cleveland home game is  219.1 PPG or about two 'TDs' higher than this total!

Play the over.

Good luck…Larry