Larry Ness

My free play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

The 58-39 Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by NINE games (largest division lead in MLB), while the Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central by 6 1/2-games, the second-largest division lead. The two first-place teams opened a three-game series last night at Miller Park with the Brewers winning 7-1. Milwaukee used a six-run seventh inning (featuring a grand slam) to snap a five-game home losing streak, while Chicago was held to five hits in the loss.

Two of MLB 2021's stingiest pitchers are scheduled to square off on Saturday, as Carlos Rodon (8-3, 2.14 ERA) will be opposed by Corbin Burnes (5-4, 2.16 ERA). Rodon owns a .0.90 WHIP and a .177 BAA, while Burnes also owns a 0.90 WHIP and his BAA is .198. Rodon opened 5-0 with a 0.58 ERA through five starts (including a no-hitter on April 14) but then went just 1-3 over his next nine starts (team was 4-5). However, he comes into this one off back-to-back wins, allowing just one ER over 13 innings (0.69 ERA). Burnes went just 2-4 with a 2.33 ERA over his first eight starts but Milwaukee lost all four of his no-decisions (2-6 in team starts). However, he has yet to lose over his last eight starts (3-0), with Milwaukee going 6-2 in those starts.

Looking for an angle? Rodon owns a 1.69 ERA on the road, about ONE run less than his home ERA of 2.59. Meanwhile, Burnes has a 2.63 home ERA, about ONE run higher than his road ERA of 1.61. Let me also add that Milwaukee faces a VERY tough lefty in Rodon and the Brewers are just 10-10 (averaging 3.2 RPG) against all left-handers in 2021. Breaking it down further, Milwaukee is just 2-6 while averaging a puny 2.9 RPG in their eight home night games vs a lefty. Take the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Run-Line Division Dominator (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

Oakland won the opener of this series 4-1, but the Mariners bounced back with a 4-3 victory yesterday. I expect another really tight affair here as well, and because of that I'm going to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Oakland hands the ball to Chris Bassitt (10-3, 3.31 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be loss to the Indians on Sunday. 

It's difficult to say too many negative things about Bassitt, so I'm not even going to bother to try.

I just think that Logan Gilbert (4-2, 3.50) for the Mariners can match his counterpart inning for inning this evening.

Gilbert comes in off a tough road win over the Angels on Sunday, allowing two runs over six innings and striking out a career high nine in the process. 

Over his first 11 big league starts, Logan is getting progressively better. Not only does he sport the sharp 3.50 ERA over 54 innings of work, but also a tiny 0.98 WHIP and 62/12 K/W. 

In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra's, I'm laying the price for the runline option on the Mariners.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Royals at 7:10 ET.

I like the Royals to keep the foot on the gas and build on their three-game win streak.

That includes a 5-3 victory in the opener here against the Tigers, who are primed for a letdown in my opinion after their seven-game win streak was snapped in yesterday's setback.

Detroit's Casey Mize (5-5, 3.44 ERA) went four scoreless against the Rangers on Monday, in what turned out to be a no-decision.

Mize though hasn't gone past the fourth inning in any of his last three starts and I think he'll have his hands full here with this focussed home side.

Which counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-1, 4.91), who enters off a strong outing against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing two runs over four innings. While he's 0-0 with a 6.55 ERA on the road, he's 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home.

Look for home field to prove to be a big difference-maker today between these two rookie starting hurlers.

The play is Kansas City.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

I had a play on the Mets last night. It was my Interleague Game of the Month. After back-to-back losses though, as Toronto lost 13-4 in its final game in Boston before coming here, I expect the Jays to bounce back on Saturday night.

And Toronto has to be feeling confident here in handing the ball to ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. 

Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. New York has issues with its offense at the best of times, and it definitely has issues with elite level pitching.

Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99) was shelled for six runs over just one-third of an inning in what turned out to be fortunate no-decision against the Padres last Sunday. It was the shortest outing of his career.

Walker is 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts fo the Jays. Toronto has an opportunity here to do what the Mets did to Steven Matz yesterday, and that's score some runs against their former teammate.

And that's exactly what I'm expecting Toronto to finally do here. Note that the Jays are a strong 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent.

All things considered, I think we're getting a great price in this one.

The play is Toronto.

Good luck...Larry