Sean Murphy

My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over Northern Kentucky at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Northern Kentucky was very fortunate to come away with an 84-76 win over UTEP to open its 2026-27 campaign on Monday as it allowed the Miners to get off a whopping 70 field goal attempts. The Norse were able to hold off UTEP thanks to getting to the free throw line 33 times (and connecting on 30 of those freebies). I expect NKU to be in tough on Wednesday as it takes on South Dakota. The Coyotes essentially had a scrimmage against non Division-I foe Mount Marty to open their season, and predictably rolled to a lopsided 95-57 victory. There were good things to take away from that victory of course. They didn't give Mount Mary any breathing room beyond the arc, allowing just 12 three-point attempts. South Dakota didn't exactly push the pace but ended up knocking down 28-of-53 field goal attempts and got to the free throw line 41 times. I look for the Coyotes to pull the 'upset' here. Take South Dakota (8*).

My selection is on Radford plus the points over California at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Radford on Wednesday as it looks to rebound following a tough 76-62 season-opening loss against San Francisco on Monday. You could argue that was an even tougher matchup than this one but Radford was catching around the same number of points against a stingy Dons squad. Of note, San Francisco got to the free throw line a whopping 35 times compared to Radford's 16 in that contest. The Highlanders did hold the Dons to 24-of-57 shooting but couldn't break through offensively, making good on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts themselves. I think they'll have a little more room to work with on Wednesday as they face a Cal squad that allowed relative unknown Adams State to get off 70 field goal attempts, and make good on 31 of them (44.3%) in Monday's 115-86 win. The Golden Bears shot the lights out in that contest (40-of-66 including 11-of-23 from beyond the arc) yet still won by 'only' 29 points against a non Division-I opponent. Take Radford (8*).

My selection is on Seattle over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

A quick chance for revenge for the Kraken here after they dropped a lopsided 6-2 decision in Calgary last week. The Flames have certainly exceeded expectations lately, going 7-3 over their last 10 games including an 'upset' win in San Jose two nights ago. I do expect regression to come for Calgary in fairly short order, however. Seattle actually ranks seventh in the league in goals per game this season and has been idle since that loss to the Flames on October 30th. Keep in mind, the Kraken had taken the first two matchups between these two teams this season by a combined 12-2 score. They're 4-2 on home ice this season while Calgary checks in 2-5 on the road. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Heat ultimately waved the white flag and got off just 75 field goal attempts in Monday's 138-117 loss to the Lakers. That ended a stretch that had saw Miami connect on 41, 51 and 54 field goals over its previous three games but I'm confident we'll see it bounce back offensively here. After all, the Clippers are trending in the wrong direction defensively having yielded 51. 46 and 43 made field goals over their last three contests and 42 or more in five of their last six games. While Los Angeles hasn't exactly thrived offensively it should get dragged along by an awful Heat defense that has allowed a matador-like 43 or more successful field goal attempts in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Neither team has been able to dictate its opponents' tempo and I think the potential is there for this to turn into a fast-paced affair. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Hornets have seen each of their last two games go 'over' the total but the underlying numbers don't indicate that's a sustainable trend. Note that Charlotte, while not a defensive force by any means, has held six of eight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals this season as it has employed a deliberate pace. The Hornets have held six straight and seven of eight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Offensively, it's been a struggle. Charlotte has connected on just 31, 30, 38 and 32 field goal attempts in its last four games. It's a similar story for Brooklyn. It has been a struggle for it to simply get shots off let alone knock them down. The Nets have been held to 77, 73 and 76 field goal attempts in their last three contests. After struggling defensively out of the gates this season, they have performed better lately, holding three straight foes to 38 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This will be the second meeting between these two teams after the Pistons rolled to a 106-93 win in Philadelphia on October 25th. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as they match up in Detroit on Wednesday. The Sixers have been locked in defensively, holding five straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of eight foes to fewer than 40 this season. You would have to go all the way back to their season-opener to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and they still held the Knicks to just 35 made field goals and 100 points in that contest. It's a similar story for Detroit. The Pistons have held six straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. In fact, they've limited their last three foes to 32 or fewer made field goals. Detroit did enjoy an offensive outburst against Charlotte on Monday but continues to play at a reasonably slow pace, getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all but one of its seven contests and connecting on fewer than 40 of those attempts in five of seven games. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

I think this is a 'wrong team favored' situation as Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan match up at Ford Field on Wednesday. The Eagles do own the better overall record but that's only thanks to playing one more game than the Chippewas. Central Michigan has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics and enters off consecutive ATS wins but three losses in a row SU. The Chips still have plenty to play for with four games left on the schedule and three wins to their credit, with the possibility of reaching a Bowl game still in play. EMU checks in having allowed north of 6.0 yards per play in four straight and six of its last seven contests. Meanwhile, its offense is trending in the wrong direction after averaging 3.9 and 4.6 ypp over its last two games. Take Central Michigan (8*).