Sean Murphy

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Fire aren't your typical expansion team. They were quickly dismissed by casual bettors after their season-opening blowout loss against Chicago, noto to mention a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS start. Since then, however, they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS including a 100-84 rout of a good Indiana team last time out. The case can be made for them catching the Valkyries in the wrong place at the wrong time as Golden State checks in off a double-digit defeat at home against Las Vegas on Sunday and has gone 2-0 SU and ATS after a loss this season. I simply feel the Valkyries are laying too many points in this spot, noting that the Fire have done a tremendous job of shortening proceedings, holding all 10 opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts this season and three of their last four foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Golden State hoisted up 74 field goal attempts on Sunday but that was thanks to trying to chase down the Aces all afternoon long. That type of pace isn't really typical of this team. I think the potential is there for this to be a slower-paced affair, and that lends itself to a play on the underdog catching a generous number of points. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

White Sox starter Davis Martin is in early contention for the A.L. Cy Young Award with a 2.31 FIP and 0.99 WHIP not to mention an 8-1 record. He's handled this current Twins lineup, holding them to 16 hits in 72 at-bats (.222) with a .645 OPS. Behind Martin is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last week and has converted 14 saves while blowing only seven on the road. Also of note, the Twins rank 30th (last) in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Minnesota will hand the ball to Connor Prielipp. He's been lit up to the tune of 8-for-17 (.471) with a 1.056 OPS against current White Sox hitters. Prielipp brings awful form into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in just 8 1/3 innings of work over his last two outings. That includes a 15-2 loss against this same White Sox club. The Twins bullpen owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Carolina at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the 'under' in the Golden Knights series sweep-clinching win over the Avalanche and with the 'over' in the Hurricanes blowout win over the Canadiens to wrap up the Eastern Conference Final. I think we'll see goals come at a premium in Tuesday's opener of the Stanley Cup Final in Raleigh. While it's true the Knights check in off an 'under' result and we often like to take a contrarian approach and call for a reversal, I won't do that here. Note that Vegas has put together six different 'under' streaks varying in length between three and six games going back to February 27th. The 'under' has cashed at a 9-7 clip in games involving the Knights in these playoffs. Meanwhile, the Canes haven't seen the 'over' cash in consecutive games since April 11th. The 'under' has quietly gone 13-3 in their last 16 contests. Playoff games played here in Carolina have averaged just 5.0 total goals. While Vegas' road playoff games have been higher-scoring (averaging 6.5 total goals), it has limited the opposition to 2.4 goals per contest away from home in these playoffs. I think this sets up as a tight-checking series-opener between two foes that aren't all that familiar with one another having only met twice during the regular season and not since October 28th. Take the under (8*).

Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina over Vegas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way the opener of the Stanley Cup Final sets up for the Hurricanes as they host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is of course coming off a stunning series sweep of the mighty Avalanche. The Knights were certainly fortunate to face the Avs at less than full strength as Cale Makar missed Games 1 and 2 and was clearly playing hurt in Games 3 and 4. Vegas enters this series on a six-game winning streak. Of note, it has posted just one winning streak lasting longer than that this season, that coming during a seven-game surge in January. Keep in mind, that seven-game winning streak included wins over six teams that would fail to make the playoffs and the only opponent that did was Los Angeles - arguably the weakest team in this year's postseason field. The Hurricanes check in having won four straight games. They've recorded four different winning streaks lasting at least five games this season so it's not as if they're in or approaching uncharted territory. Carolina owns a considerable home ice advantage, having gone 35-13 here in Raleigh this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. Vegas, on the other hand, is just 25-24 on the road this season. The Canes figure to have their guard up here after dropping the opener of the Eastern Conference Final in lopsided fashion against Montreal. Look for them to grab an early leg up on the Knights on Tuesday. Take Carolina (10*).