Sean Murphy

My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday.

The Cubs have taken the first two games of this series but we'll back the Padres as they look to respond on Wednesday. Walker Buehler will take the ball for San Diego. He has been quietly effective lately with the Padres winning each of his last four starts. He gave up exactly one earned run in all five June outings. Cubs starter Colin Rea has been terrific across his last two outings but consistency has never been his calling card. Prior to that he was lit up for 15 earned runs over a four-start stretch. Chicago has lost each of his last five outings. While you wouldn't know it by the first two games in this series, the Padres rank top-five in the majors in xwOBA over the last week while the Cubs sit in 22nd. With the bullpen matchup a virtual wash given the arms available, we'll back the Padres with an edge offensively and in the starting pitching matchup, not to mention at a plus money return. Take San Diego (8*).

My selection is on Bosnia and Herzegovina +1 goal (90 minutes) over the United States at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

The United States got off to a roaring start to this tournament with decisive wins over Paraguay and Australia but had its positive momentum zapped in its group stage finale against Turkiye. While most are expecting it to face little resistance in this knockout stage affair against Bosnia and Herzegovina, I'm not so easily convinced. Bosnia and Herzegovina has proven to be a worthy competitor in this tournament. It drew against Canada to start before falling to Switzerland and then handling Qatar. Of note, both teams have scored in eight of the USA's last 10 contests and nine of Bosnia and Herzegovina's last 10. There's reason to believe both sides can find the back of the net here and I'm not sure that the USA will ever put the game handily out of reach. I can't ignore the value with a plus money return grabbing a goal with the underdog. Take Bosnia and Herzegovina +1 goal (8*).

My selection is on the draw (90 minutes) between Senegal and Belgium at 4 pm et on Wednesday.

Yesterday's World Cup results were fairly straight-forward with all three favorites prevailing with only Norway facing much resistance at all. I don't think there's a lot to choose between these two sides on Wednesday, however. Both righted the ship in their group stage finales. Belgium overcame a shaky first couple of matches that resulted in stalemates against Egypt and Iran to drill New Zealand 5-1. The talent is certainly there but the play has been inconsistent. It's a similar story for Senegal. It is worth noting that it faced a tough early road in this tournament, going up against France and Norway before cruising against Iraq. It's tough to envision another plus-money three-way winner with the favorite here but I also don't expect Senegal to be able to hold a lead should it produce one inside of 90 minutes either. We'll call for the draw at what I feel is a generous price. Take the draw (8*).

N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Reds have dropped the first two games of this series but I think they're well-positioned to answer back on Wednesday - even if the price doesn't indicate so. Cincinnati will hand the ball to arguably its most reliable starter outside of ace Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott. The left-hander has allowed three earned runs or less in an incredible 11 straight starts and Cincinnati has gone 9-4 over his last 13 outings. While the Brewers have been hot at the plate, they rank just 22nd in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Current Brewers hitters are just 22-for-101 (.218) with a .646 OPS against Abbott. Cincinnati has held its own at the dish lately, ranking inside the top-10 in xwOBA over the last week. It will go up against Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan, who it just saw last week. Drohan has failed to last beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts with the Brewers going 1-2 over that stretch. His overall numbers aren't bad by any means but I'm not sure they warrant the price tag here. Cincinnati's bullpen enters this contest in good shape given the lopsided nature of the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has a few of its higher leverage arms in 'overworked' territory still. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Washington over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Nationals got their bats going for the first time in this series last night evened proceedings up at a game apiece. I like them to take Wednesday's series finale as well. This will be a battle of left-handed starting pitchers. In that case, we'll give Washington the edge as it ranks best in baseball in wOBA against southpaw pitching this season. Red Sox starter Payton Tolle is coming off a masterful seven inning outing against the slumping Yankees but prior to that Boston had lost his last three starts. While he's pitched well this season, the Red Sox bats haven't always backed him up as he owns a 4-5 overall record. I like the fact that the Nats' have all hands on deck bullpen-wise entering this contest. The same can't be said for the Red Sox with some key arms in 'overworked' territory. Take Washington (8*).