Sean Murphy

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

I certainly feel the case could be made for the wrong team being favored in this game. We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres in what projects as an incredibly high-scoring affair in Mexico City. German Marquez takes the ball for San Diego and the common line of thinking is that the surging Diamondbacks offense will feast on the veteran right-hander. However, Arizona ranks just 27th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They've done their feasting predominantly against southpaws. I think Marquez can pitch well enough to keep his team in the game and leave the rest to the Padres terrific bullpen. Speaking of bullpens, the D'Backs relief corps has predictably struggled this season with few good options after Saturday's starter Zac Gallen. Gallen is now three years removed from perennially contending for the N.L. Cy Young Award. He's been very hittable so far this season, allowing 31 base knocks in 25 2/3 innings of work. Through five outings he has recorded a 3.87 FIP to go along with a 1.48 WHIP. We saw the Padres bats wake up late in Thursday's come-from-behind win in Colorado and I think we'll witness some carry-over from that performance as they head to Mexico City where the ball figure to be flying all over the park. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Thunder bettors probably felt comfortable laying the points in Game 2 of this series after seeing what transpired in Game 1 (the Thunder won that game by 35 points). Phoenix didn't roll over, however, ultimately dropping a 120-107 decision and staying comfortably inside the pointspread. I don't think that means the Suns are about to keep things within single-digits on Saturday, however. Oklahoma City has lost consecutive games ATS just once going back to March 29th and that's despite having little to play for down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted just one ATS winning streak since March 13th. Despite grabbing the cash in Game 2, they're still just 3-8 ATS over their last 11 contests. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 12:05 pm et on Saturday.

Bettors figure to be out in full force backing the Red Sox in this presumed bounce-back spot following four straight losses. Boston will hand the ball to its ace in Garrett Crochet after all. However, Crochet has been anything but 'ace-like' in the early going this season. He checks in sporting a 4.96 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through five starts. Now he faces an Orioles club that has been heating up, ranking top-six in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and inside the top-10 in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Trevor Rogers will counter for Baltimore. He got off to a terrific start but has since run into some trouble, allowing nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work over his last two outings. The good news is, he draws a Red Sox team that ranks 27th in xwOBA over the last week and 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Boston's bullpen has been serviceable in the early going this season, but Baltimore's has been even better. The O's 'pen has recorded a 3.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with nine saves converted and only three blown this season. And while Boston relievers have been pressed into duty for 31 innings over the last week, Baltimore's 'pen has worked just 20 2/3 innings over that stretch. The O's had the benefit of an off day on Thursday while Boston's last off day came back on April 16th (and its next won't come until this Thursday). Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 5:30 pm et on Friday.

This series has gotten off to a higher-scoring start than expected through three games and as a result we're seeing totals of '6' pop up ahead of Game 4 on Saturday. I think we'll see things tighten up considerably following Dallas' 4-3 double-overtime victory in Game 3. The Stars are already in uncharted territory from a totals perspective as they're riding a season-high five-game 'over' streak. Minnesota has seen the 'over' cash in three straight games, marking its longest such streak since a five-game 'over' streak from January 31st to February 27th (that eclipsed the Olympic break). Keep in mind, we're just over a month removed from an overtime game that saw the Wild prevail 2-1 in a defensive slugfest at Grand Casino Arena on March 21st. I'm expecting the series to take a lower-scoring turn in Saturday's pivotal Game 4. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Toronto over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Guardians jumped all over the Blue Jays in the opener of this series last night but I look for Toronto to answer back behind its ace on Saturday. Kevin Gausman continues to churn out quality outings for the Jays, even as his team continues to struggle. He checks in sporting a sparkling 2.21 FIP and 0.95 WHIP on the season. He figures to like this particular matchup as current Guardians hitters are just 18-for-91 (.196) with a .504 OPS against him and rank 21st in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While the Jays bullpen has had a shaky start to the season, we have seen positive signs over the last week, most notably a 1.06 WHIP in its last 22 2/3 innings of work with two saves converted and none blown over that stretch. Joey Cantillo will counter for Cleveland. Early returns indicate he's been a better pitcher at home than on the road over the course of his big league career. Toronto ranks near the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and three spots ahead of Cleveland in xwOBA over the last week. I'm confident they can put together enough offense to support Gausman on Saturday. Take Toronto (8*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

How quickly sentiment can change in a playoff series. Few were giving the Timberwolves any sort of shot after they dropped the opener in convincing fashion last Saturday. Since then, Minnesota has delivered consecutive wins and are suddenly in control entering Saturday's pivotal Game 4. We'll confidently back the Nuggets here as they look to even the series at a game apiece before heading back to Denver. Note that Minnesota has a grand total of zero ATS winning streaks lasting more than two games going back to February 2nd. Their lone ATS winning streak lasting longer than two games since January 10th went four contests back in late January. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have dropped the cash in more than two games in a row only once since February 20th, that coming in a three-game ATS slide in late March. How many times has Denver lost more than two games in a row SU this season? Just once, as it dropped three games in a row to kick off February. We'll take our chances laying the short number with the Nuggets on Saturday. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Ottawa over Carolina at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Everyone will be lining up to back the Hurricanes on Saturday as they look to wrap up this opening round series in short order. We'll go the other way and back the Senators as they aim to stave off elimination at home. It's certainly been a disastrous series for the Sens to this point. They simply haven't been able to take advantage of their scoring opportunities while the Canes have been incredibly opportunistic on the other side. I do think we'll see Ottawa show some fight on Saturday, however, noting that it is still 23-19 on home ice this season where it has outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 0.7 goals. The fourth victory is almost always the most difficult and the Canes know that with their extensive playoff experience. Of note, Ottawa has lost more than three games in a row just once previously this season, that coming back in early January when it dropped four straight contests. As good as the Canes have been this season, they own just one winning streak lasting longer than their current one (four games) since December 19th. Take Ottawa (8*).