Sean Murphy

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Athletics continue to chug along with an above .500 record as they begin a road trip in Philadelphia on Tuesday. They are at somewhat of an advantage here as they were idle on Monday while the Phillies wrapped up their four-game divisional series in a Miami and did so with a second straight victory, albeit by the narrowest of margins 1-0 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The A's will hand the ball to Luis Severino on Tuesday. While the starting pitching matchup figures to favor the Phillies heavily, a closer look indicates otherwise. Severino looked like he was done in 2023 as he posted a 6.14 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 19 appearances with the Yankees. However, he's turned back the clock in the 2+ seasons since. He did get off to a shaky start this year but checks in off arguably his two best starts, holding the Rangers and Royals to just two earned runs on 10 hits over 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that he'll face a Phillies team that ranks 19th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and comfortably in the bottom-third of the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Severino has held current Phillies hitters to 16-for-60 (.267) at the plate with a .812 OPS. Cristopher Sanchez will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't looked right over the last month or so as he has allowed 41 hits over his last 29 innings of work, spanning five starts. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Phillies won one of his outings by more than a single run. They're just 2-5 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line when Sanchez takes the hill this season. The A's have rounded back into form offensively of late, climbing to 12th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Finally, we'll note that the A's figure to have 'all hands on deck' as far as their bullpen goes after an off day on Monday. Their relief corps has been terrific in 18 road games this season, sporting a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Meanwhile, the Phillies 'pen owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just three saves converted and two blown at home. Look for the A's to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Colorado at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Betting the 'under' in Game 2 of this series, after Game 1 saw a whopping 15 total goals, is about as difficult as it gets. However, I like the value here, noting that we saw plenty of 5.5's in advance of the series-opener but now we're working with 6.5's across the board for Game 2. Keep in mind, three of the four regular season meetings between these two teams totalled six goals or less. The Avalanche enter Game 2 on a three-game 'over' streak and that's notable as they've seen the 'over' cash in more than three games in a row only once previously this season, that coming during a four-game 'over' streak from December 27th to January 3rd. The Wild also head into this contest riding a three-game 'over' streak. They haven't posted more than three straight 'over' results going back to March 1st. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Cavaliers in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday. Cleveland snapped its 0-4 ATS streak with a win and cover against the Raptors in Game 7 of its first round series on Sunday. I believe it is well-positioned to put Detroit on 'upset' alert on Tuesday, even if this wouldn't be much of an upset at all. The Pistons have won three straight games and that's notable as they've won more than three games in a row just once going back to February 23rd. They're also checking in off back-to-back ATS victories. They've put together just two ATS winning streaks lasting three games or more since February 23rd and only four such streaks since November 24th. Take Cleveland (8*).