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*This subscription currently includes 7 picks (6 NCAA-F, 1 CFL) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
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*This subscription currently includes 7 picks (6 NCAA-F, 1 CFL) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Free picks
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.
This total has already been bet up considerably as most bettors are expecting plenty of fireworks in this matchup of high-powered offensive teams. We'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring game than expected. Arizona has scored 34+ points in four of its five games so far this season but it hasn't exactly faced an elite slate of defensive opponents. Those four offensive outbursts came against Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, Washington State and Cincinnati. Given the relatively weak slate of opponents, it's tough to get a true gauge on the Wildcats but I will point to their toughest matchup to date which came back in Week 2 at BYU - a game that totalled just 45 points as the Cougars prevailed 28-17. West Virginia has actually faced an even weaker strength of schedule than Arizona by most metrics. The Mountaineers offense has feasted on its share of overmatched defensive opponents. After a wild, high-scoring 45-42 defeat at Iowa State last week (their second straight loss), I look for the Mountaineers to settle things down a bit here. I have West Virginia rated as a weaker offensive but stronger defensive team than the stats have shown to this point of the season which is a perfect recipe for an 'under' result on Saturday. Take the under.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predators vs Canadiens | Canadiens -168 | Premium | 5-2 | Loss | -168 | Show |
| Guardians vs White Sox | OVER 7½ +105 | Free | 9-5 | Win | 105 | Show |
| Sam Houston vs Liberty | Sam Houston +13½ -110 | Free | 3-35 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Bucs vs Cowboys | UNDER 47½ -105 | Premium | 24-16 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Bucs vs Cowboys | Bucs +8½ -108 | Premium | 24-16 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over San Jose State at 9 pm et on Friday.
San Jose State is an automatic fade for me on Friday as it returns home on a short week following an ‘upset’ win in Hawaii on Saturday. The Spartans are now in excellent position to ultimately reach a Bowl game this year off to a 3-2 start but they of course have their eyes on the Mountain West Conference off to a 1-0 start. Wyoming has some work to do as it checks in 2-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play. I think Wyoming is comfortable playing the type of game San Jose State prefers. Expect a nip-and-tuck affair all the way so we’ll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Cowboys. Take Wyoming.
Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Friday.
We'll lay the points with the Aces as they look to stave off elimination at home on Friday night. Game 2 of this series was about as tightly-contested as it gets with the Valkyries prevailing by a bucket. The Aces figure to enter this game with confidence as they've still taken three of five meetings between these two teams this season including a 2-0 mark at home. It would be natural for the Valkyries - a team that has exceeded expectations this season - to suffer a letdown as they try to close out the series on the road on Friday. To put it simply, I don't think this line is high enough, noting that the Aces have won six straight games at home and the SU winner has gone 25-2 ATS in their last 27 contests. Take Las Vegas.
My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Washington at 9 pm et on Friday.
I've seen nothing to lead me to believe that Washington is as good as originally thought this season. There were signs early as the Huskies escaped with unimpressive home wins over Washington State and Utah State to open the campaign before a blowout victory (but another non-cover) against FCS squad Eastern Washington. From there the Huskies dropped consecutive games against Minnesota and USC. I suppose last week's narrow four-point loss on the road against a good USC team could be looked at as a positive but the low-scoring environment is what ultimately kept Washington in the game. Iowa checks in off its first loss of the season but it came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State. I don't expect the Hawkeyes to fold the tent after that loss - it was expected after all as a 14.5-point home underdog. Note that Iowa not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but it has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Iowa.
