Sean Murphy

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Valkyries have been a terrific bet this season as they're one of the league's elite teams but not necessarily thought of as that, resulting in them being undervalued most of the time. They do enter this contest off consecutive ATS defeats at home against the upstart Mystics before the All-Star break, including an outright 'upset' loss on July 20th. They've had over a week to stew over that defeat, which snapped their nine-game winning streak (7-2 ATS), so we'll get behind them in this bounce-back spot in Phoenix. The Mercury are one of the league's worst teams but did go into the break on the heels of consecutive wins. Of course those victories came against two teams that have been struggling mightily in the Sun and Sparks. Look for Phoenix to be brought back to reality here. Take Golden State (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

The Dream were essentially an auto-fade for a few weeks in June and early July as they dropped the cash in eight straight games, going 1-7 SU over that stretch. They did right the ship prior to the All-Star break, reeling off three consecutive victories while going 2-1 ATS. They've already handled Dallas twice previously this season, taking the first two matchups by five points here in Big D and 17 points at home. Of course, both of those contests came back in May and have long been forgotten by most casual WNBA bettors. The Wings were a terrific bet in the first month of the season but not so much since as they've gone 6-11 ATS over their last 17 games including 1-3 ATS in their last four. While both teams have really struggled defensively in recent weeks, I do have more confidence in the Dream figuring it out, noting that it has held an incredible 22 straight opponents to 67 or fewer field goal attempts. Dallas on the other hand has been matador-like at that end of the floor and lost both previous meetings in this series despite holding Atlanta to fewer than 70 field goal attempts in both contests. Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on Boston over the Athletics at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Athletics got back at the Red Sox after dropping the opener of this series, holding on for a 4-3 victory last night. Their bullpen once again did its best to blow that contest. Note that the A's 'pen has posted a ridiculous 7.62 ERA and 1.79 WHIP with only three saves converted and two blown over the last month. That struggling relief corps figures to be pressed into action again on Wednesday with Jacob Lopez starting. Lopez continues to struggle with his command. Even though he allowed just one hit over five shutout innings against the Twins last time out, he still issued four walks and threw just 50 of 91 pitches for strikes. On the season he has allowed a whopping 5.6 walks per nine innings and has also been tagged for a career-high 9.5 hits per nine innings. Fellow left-hander Patrick Sandoval counters for Boston. Of note, the A's rank 27th in the majors in xwOBA over the last month. Sandoval has been serviceable since joining the Red Sox starting rotation, helping them to victories in all three of his starts. While he's not a candidate to work deep into the ball game, the Red Sox bullpen has been terrific this season and certainly of late with a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and 12 saves converted compared to just one blown over the last month. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Arizona at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday.

Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been fortune to go undefeated over his last three starts as he hasn't pitched particularly well over that stretch, allowing 21 hits and six walks in just 14 2/3 innings of work. While the Pirates have been struggling a bit in July, I do think they can get to Rodriguez on Wednesday and provide enough run support to get starter Jared Jones an elusive victory. Jones is just 2-1 in 10 starts but he's pitched better than that record indicates having logged a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP. He's in excellent form right now having allowed just two earned runs on five hits over his last three starts, covering a span of 17 innings. The Pirates bullpen isn't in great shape right now but the same can be said for the D'Backs. Of note, Arizona hasn't had an off day since the All-Star break. It will finally get one tomorrow ahead of a weekend series in Cleveland. Look for the Pirates to take advantage. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over New York at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Braves dropped the opener of this series in blowout fashion two nights ago. After last night's contest was bumped ahead due to rain, we'll call for Atlanta to bounce back in Game 1 of Wednesday's double-header. AJ Smith-Shawver is slated to make his return from elbow surgery for the Braves. He looked good in his rehab starts in the minors and all indications are that he could be stretched out for 80-90 pitches in this contest. Of course, Atlanta owns one of the best bullpens in the majors and after it got back in order in Monday's lopsided affair and then had last night off, it's in excellent shape entering Wednesday's early matchup. The Mets will send Sean Manaea to the hill. He's coming off a fine outing against the Dodgers but those type of performances have only been scattered throughout his eight starts. In 22 appearances overall this season, Manaea owns a 4.27 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's had trouble against the Braves current hitters in the past and I'm expecting that to be the case again today. Take Atlanta (10*).