Free Sports Picks

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+12½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5

This line is clearly inflated right now because the Packers have something to play for while the Buccaneers do not. Well, I would argue that Green Bay could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Detroit and overlooking the Buccaneers. Either way, I believe the value is with the double-digit home underdogs in this one. The betting public always backs the Packers, and that’s what has driven this line up higher than it should be.

All you have to do is check out how the Packers have fared on the road this season and you’ll be in love with the Buccaneers as well. Indeed, Green Bay is just 3-4 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 4.9 points per game on the road, and outgained by 47.3 yards per game. It averages just 21.1 points and 341.6 yards per game, while giving up 26.0 points and 378.9 points per game away from home.

Even the three road wins for the Packers have been close as they won by 3 points at Miami and by 3 at Minnesota.  They did beat the Bears by 21 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Bears actually outgained the Packers by 138 yards.  All five of Aaron Rodgers' interceptions this season have come on the road, where he's been held to under 210 yards passing four times in seven starts.  He's been limited to just 12 touchdown passes on the road as well.

While the Buccaneers have a poor 2-12 record, I have no doubt that they are better than their record indicates. They have simply been a victim of several close losses this season. Indeed, nine of the Bucs’ 12 losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer, and seven by 6 points per less. They have gone 1-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.

Tampa Bay clearly has not quit on Lovie Smith. It continues to fight as it has only been beaten by more than 10 points once in its last eight games overall. It has a 6-point overtime loss to Minnesota, a 5-point road loss at Cleveland, a 27-7 win over Washington, a 1-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 2-point road loss to Carolina during this stretch, just to name a few. The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last seven opponents despite going 1-6 over that span. They will continue to be competitive Sunday.

The Packers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. They have a tendency of playing down to their competition, and that has been evident by this trend. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its seven road games this season. Tampa Bay is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in its last game. The Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
UTEP vs. Utah State
UTEP
+10½-115
  at  BOVADA
in 5h

The Free New Mexico Bowl play is on UTEP + the 10 points. Game 203 at 2:20 eastern. UTEP has not won a bowl game in 47 years but they are getting double digits here which is key. Bowl favorites of more than 7 in December have ben profitable fades through they years and are even stronger at -8.5 or more and playing off a loss, vs an opponent off a loss Like Utah St is here. Bowl dogs of 10 or more that won 3 or less games last year have covered 10 of 12 times vs teams who have won a win percentage of .667 or higher. Utah St is 1-4 ats vs non conference teams and 0-3 straight up vs Conference USA Teams. The Miners have covered 8 of 10 on Saturday and qualify in a rushing bowl dog indicator. UTEP Hangs around for the cover. On Saturday a Tremendous card is up with a Triple Perfect NFL Totals system, the NFL Quad Perfect Game Of the Month, 3 Huge Bowl system sides and 2 Gigantic NBA Plays one a 100% Blowout the other a 94% dog, also a Trio of NCAAB Simulator sides with Perfect Power Angles. Football is ranked #1 overall at several high end Leader Boards for a 6th straight week. Get on the Most Powerful plays available all day and night on Saturday and cash big. For the free play take Texas El Paso plus the points. RV

NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Air Force
+1-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

Air Force Falcons +1

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl brings together Western Michigan and Air Force. The Falcons should feel very comfortable on the blue turf in Boise and a very nice season in the Mountain West including beating Boise State.

Western Michigan was solid in the MAC but I think they will find that the long layoff won’t help them solve that option attack and that Air Force will have plenty of fight as they strive for double digit victories.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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NCAA-B  |  Dec 20, 2014
Louisville vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky
+12½-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

Western Kentucky +12.5

Harrison-Docks and TJ Price played in the 78-63 loss at Louisville last year and now the Hilltoppers are the home team that should be motivated to face the instate team that is ranked in the top five. Louisville has a great team and should end up winning by 10 to 12 points early on Saturday.

Free play on Western Kentucky +12.5

NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
UTEP vs. Utah State
UTEP
+10-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

UTEP +10 1.1* Free Play

New Mexico Bowl game between UTEP and Utah State.  Normally I would back Utah State a team that in years past has been dominating on defense but right now there is just something missing as their defense gave up 900 yards rushing and 8 TD's over their last 4 games combined.  UTEP's Aaron Jones has the play making ability and I don't view Conference USA that far behind the Mountain West.  In fact I rank the Mountain West 6th, and C-USA 8th.  UTEP had the tougher non-conference schedule facing Texas Tech, Kansas State and no FCS team while Utah State faced Tennesse and Wake Forest + FCS team.  Each team had one common opponent which was New Mexico.  New Mexico is another team that runs first and UTEP went on the road and beat them 31-24 while Utah State won at home 28-21.  I just think there is too much value here with UTEP who is very excited to be in this bowl game.

The total in this game is also dropping like crazy and is now down at 44 which makes this 10 points all the more valuable.  UTEP is 2nd in the nation in time of possession, they have only turned the ball over 11 times, and they are among the best in fewest penalties ranking 23rd while Utah State comes in at 103.  If that's not enough for you, UTEP starts a senior QB and an experienced secondary while Utah State is starting a freshmen in Kent Myers.  Sure Kent Myers is 4-1 as a starter but the pass defenses he has had to go up against are some of the worst in the nation in Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico etc.  UTEP is ranked 10th in passing defense efficiency.  UTEP is also better on third down offense and defense and again I still don't think they are in a far worse conference. 

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Total
58 un-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

Play on:  Air Force (208)/Western Michigan UNDER the total @ 5:45 Eastern

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

It’s been a difficult assignment trying to ascertain a major edge inside this Bowl game, but these two have key differentials that equally affect the bottom line indicating a dead even tie after four quarters!  Although one of the more disturbing angles is the fact the MAC did not win a bowl game last year just about…0-5 SU, gives us a good reason to look at the total here.  WMU shows 7-4 SU (10-1 ATS), Air Force comes in 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS).  The Falcons have a major edge running the football (248 yards per game), the Broncos field averaging 263 yards a game through the air.  The Broncos have a net +9.0 point differential overall, AF starts with a net +5.0 differential.  For the Falcons 8-3 SU is a monumental bounce back after a horrid 2-10 SU season last year, which left key injuries on the field and much discord.  No doubt Air Force illustrated difficulty stopping the pass this season, but the AF game plan will be to control the tempo with their running game, an edge in TOP.  From the technical standpoint, Western Michigan has shot UNDER 6-of-7 vs. a >.500 unit, while the Falcons show 6-1 UNDER the number in games with a winning school.  We close with AF 10-2 UNDER against non-conference entities….GO UNDER!

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
-10-115
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

1* Free Play Packers.

Last week I gave you a free play on the Jacksonville Jaguars, an easy winner that almost took the game outright. This week I’m looking at a larger favorite, but one which I think has a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons working in its favor; I definitely feel that the Green Bay Packers are worth a second look in this spot. 

The Packers five game win streak would get snapped in last week’s listless 21-13 setback at Buffalo, however take note that it was the second straight week that Green Bay failed to cover the spread. A date vs. the inconsistent Buccaneers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion, Tampa is coming off its fourth straight SU loss in last week’s 19-17 setback at Carolina. The Packers are in a dog fight with Detroit for the NFC North’s top seed, added incentive today to take full advantage of their weaker opponent. Note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Tampa Bay is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 20 points or less in three straight games. At this time of year, “situations” become very a important tool for handicappers, consider a play on GREEN BAY this weekend.

AAA Sports

NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Utah vs. Colorado State
Utah
-2-117
  at  BETONLINE
in 6h

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Las Vegas, NV

Utah (-2) vs. Colorado St. 3:30 ET ABC

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Wild Card in this analysis is the response of Colorado St. to the defection of HC McElwain to Florida after guiding his team to a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS mark.  That completes a turnaround that has seen the Ram fortunes move in a positive direction.  Colorado St. is now 18-8 SU L2Y after going 13-35 SU the previous 4 years.  They are now on a 20-9 ATS run.  Offensive fortunes have improved to 36 PPG and 498 YPG on 7.2 OFF YP play, behind QB Grayson (32/6) and RB Hart. Among their pointspread feathers are records of 8-3 ATS as dog and 9-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  But without knowing the response of Ram players to the loss of McElwain, I will side with Utah in this matchup.  Replacement QB Wilson (17/4) and RB Wilson have kept this team competitive in rugged PAC 12 play. Against the vigorous competition of that league, Utah saw 7/9 conference games decided by 6 or less points.   In going 8-4 SU ATS this season, the Utes recorded 5 road wins.  A negative is a 0-5 ATS record as road or neutral favorite.  But, under HC Whittingham, this team is 8-2 ATS in Bowls, indicating his ability to motivate his team for these games and make them a priority.  Final positive indicator for the Utes is their 52 defensive sacks, a number that leads the nation and will make life miserable for QB Grayson.

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
-7½+120
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

Detroit Lions -7.5

The Lions are playing a Bears team that is lifeless and is laying down. Jay Cutler was just reported to be benched. The Lions defense will own this one as Clausen is taking over for Cutler.

Pick= Lions -7.5

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
+9½-125
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

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Play Arizona, game 130.

At 11-3, Arizona owns the best record in the NFC with Seattle just one game behind them at 10-4. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 19-3 back on November 23. Since then, Seattle's defense has continued to dominate. The problem is that the Seahawks offense has sputtered, big-time. The Cardinals have backup QB, Ryan Lindley calling the plays here. Not a rookie anymore, Linley has become a mature, intelligent team player. With the NFC West lead on the line, I expect head coach Bruce Arians to get his chemistry-rich team up once again here. The Cardinals are 7-0 straight up at home, going 6-1ATS. With running back, Kerwyn Williams finding his stride, this will allow Lindley time to find his talented corps of receivers, Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown. The Arizona offense can eat up enough clock to stay in this game. On defense, the Cardinals will bring the sixth best rushing "D" in the league here and slow down the Seahawks only offensive threat in running back, Marshawn Lynch. With quarterback, Russell Wilson still struggling and the offense really spluttering in the pass, I don't expect Seattle to light up the scoreboard here. Arizona is 6-0 ATS their  L6 games played at home, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in December, 12-3 ATS their L15 vs. the NFC, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the points here. Play Arizona. Thank you.

NFL  |  Dec 20, 2014
San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers
+1-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 11h

7 FREE PICK WINNERS IN A ROW! 19-3 Run this week! 6-1 NFL!

Jacksonville Jaguars WIN the TNF Steamroller!

Where do I begin with the once mighty Niners, and their "Who's got it better than us" rally chant?

This is an organization that strangely reminds us of those Mcnabb led Eagles teams a decade ago; good but couldn't get over the hump. When the Eagles reign finally fell apart, it fell apart fast.

Harbaugh and company have given up, and are ready to end their relationship as soon as possible. The team's demise started when they lost to Navarro Bowman to a season long injury; then everything came apart and is still falling apart. I don't have the time to write about how bad their offense is, but their mentally fragile.

The Chargers are a team that feasts on teams they should beat. This Chargers team is better than most think, and they have a solid QB with weapons at his disposal. The Chargers are fighting to stay alive for a playoffs birth, and are a organize team without inner and outer distractions. San Diego is 7-3 ATS on the road while the Niners are 2-6 ATS at home. Take the Chargers.My stronger play is on the total: 10*'Saturday Night Score Prediction'($19.95)

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Western Michigan
-1½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 9h

I'm recommending a play on Western Michigan on Saturday.  Air Force is a little banged-up for this one, including thousand-yard rusher Jacobi Owens who will not play on Saturday due to a foot injury.  The Falcons' second leading rusher is QB Kale Pearson and he is banged-up for this one, also, but expects to play.  AFA relies heavily on their running game, as usual, but will face a WMU defense that has been excellent against the run, allowing less than 143 yards rushing per game. The Broncos also have had extra time to prepare for the unusual Falcon attack.  Offensively, the Broncos have a 1,500-yard rusher in RB Jarvion Franklin, but they can also throw the football with Corey Davis leading the team in receptions and receiving yards.  The Broncos enter on a 10-1 ATS winning run, while the Falcons have covered just 3 of their last 10 against teams with a winning record.  I'm recommending a play on Western Michigan, minus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Air Force
-1½-104
  at  PINNACLE
in 9h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #208 Take Air Force Falcons over Western Michigan Broncos (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Saturday, 5:45 pm ESPN) The Falcons continue to be undervalued by the bookmakers as this is far and away the best of the academy teams in 2014. The Falcons are 9-3 on the season and that includes wining five of their last six games including a victory over Colorado State. The MAC was not as strong of a football conference this season compared to the Moutain West and I just do not believe Western Michigan is excited to be playing this game in Boise, ID. The Falcons get their quarterback back for this game and he is the straw that stirs the drink. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs and Air Force is not just a run on all downs team anymore. Air Force has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card featuring a monster selection on Saturday from the New Orleans Bowl and as well as our NCAA Game of the Year. Get all of the action now, right here and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. 

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Total
46½ ov-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 1d

This isn’t your Pittsburgh Steelers of the glory days. They relied on running the ball and a great D. This team scores a ton of points and the defense is far from the Steel Curtain, over the last three games in Pittsburgh, there has been a total of 218 points scored, or an average of 73 a game. Le'Veon Bell has emerged as one of the top backs in the league. He has been getting the job done and making big plays as both a runner and a receiver while Big Ben and Antonio Brown continue to make big plays in the passing game. The Steelers have allowed 20+ points in 12 of their 14 games played this season

The Chiefs have played Oakland and Arizona the last two weeks. Three weeks ago they played Denver which would be better comparison to the Steelers offense rather than Oakland or Arizona. Against the Broncos, they allowed 29 points. The Chiefs have some playmakers on offense themselves and should be able to put up points on this porous Steelers defense.     

Play on the OVER.

This is a 1* Free Play

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
+7-120
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Only once in their last eight games have the Vikings lost by more than seven points and that was an eight-point loss.

The Dolphins are beat up physically and in a bad place mentally with their playoff hopes realistically dashed and third-year head coach Joe Philbin almost certainly out after missing the postseason once again.

Miami has been outscored by 56 points during the past seven quarters. The Vikings, on the other hand, are an improving team showing spunk under defensive whiz Mike Zimmer. He has greatly improved Minnesota's defense. Teddy Bridgewater is showing better command of the offense. The Dolphins' pass rush has ground to a near halt recording just two sacks during the last two games, while facing 69 pass attempts.

The Dolphins are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry during their last 31 rushing attempts. They are not a big-play passing team either. So this is too high of a spread for them to cover.  

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
+7-130
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

Play - Atlanta Falcons (Game 113).  

Edges - Falcons: 9-1 ATS last road game of the season; and 18-7 ATS off a SU loss of 7 or more points under Mike Smith, including 8-2 ATS in division games.  Saints: 0-5 ATS in last home games off a non-division game when facing a division opponent.  With New Orleans having not won a home game in almost two months (0-4 SUATS last four), and the Falcons in control of their playoff destiny, we recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 24, 2014
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Total
66 ov-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 4d

30 DIME BAHAMAS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

TODAY'S WINNER: 66 OVERS

Central Michigan is averaging 38 points on the grass, and has allowed 30 points when playing on the road. Today they will face Western Kentucky who is averaging 38 points on the road, and surrendering 30 points on defense. Western Kentucky averaged 54 points in their last 3 games, and that caused a signal in the algorithms. Western Kentucky is 9-3 ATS on the over with a average score of 44 points. According to the algorithms, I have the total at 77 and 74. Lay the money on the 66 over for today's winner. Thank You