Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Dream/Wings: under 180½

This total is built on one game of film for each side, and the numbers underneath it are screaming regression.

Dallas dropped 107 in their opener on 59% from the floor and 52% from three. That 0.68 eFG% is not a real number over a full WNBA season. It's an outlier, and the market is treating it like a baseline.

Atlanta's debut went the other direction. The Dream shot 24% from three and turned it over on 24% of their possessions. Even at a 103.8 pace, they only managed a 104.6 offensive rating in a 91-point game.

The opposition case leans on Dallas pace (106.8) and the loss of Brionna Jones inside for Atlanta. Fair points. But Dallas posting a 120.2 offensive rating again against a fresh defense, on the road shooting they put up in game one, is the bet you're making on the Over. I'm not paying that price.

Four 20-point scorers in the opener gets cited as a reason to expect fireworks. Allisha Gray dropped 24, Arike 22, Bueckers 20, Sims 20. Those four combining for 86 again is the exception, not the rule. WNBA scoring distributions flatten out fast once teams get a real scout.

Atlanta's last 19 games have gone Under 13 times. That's their identity even when the pace ticks up. Dallas was 116.9 on defense in game one, so the regression cuts both ways: their offense cools, and Atlanta's 42% shooting team isn't punishing them for 95.

I like the Under 180.5 (-105)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cardinals +1½

The Cardinals are 23-17 and playing their best baseball on the road. They're 12-4 SU in their last 16 away games and 9-4 SU over their last 13 overall. That's a team I want on the run line at a fair number.

The head-to-head history backs it up. St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games against Oakland. The A's counter with a 4-2 SU mark in their last 6 home games versus the Cards, but that's a smaller sample on a team that's only 21-19 and dealing with real lineup holes.

Oakland is without Max Muncy (10-Day IL) and Denzel Clarke (10-Day IL), and shortstop Jacob Wilson is day-to-day after an MRI on a shoulder sprain. That's three lineup pieces either out or compromised against a Cardinals club running hot.

The opposition's best argument is the pitching matchup. Jeffrey Springs and his 3.89 ERA against Andre Pallante at 4.34 is a real edge for the A's, and the Cardinals have had issues with lefties this year. I get it. But Springs has been homer-prone lately at 3.26 HR/9 over his last three starts, and St. Louis actually cuts its strikeout rate from 23.4% to 18% against southpaws. They put the ball in play, and they hit it hard right now.

I'm buying a run and a half with a road team that's 12-4 in its last 16 and 6-3 in this head-to-head.

I like the Cardinals +1.5 (-140)

Tuesday's Premium Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-170)

The Braves came into this series banged up and just got worse. Ronald Acuña Jr. is on the 10-day IL, and Sean Murphy hit the IL today with a fractured finger. That's the heart of the order and the starting catcher gone, with Drake Baldwin now handling Grant Holmes behind the plate in a spot-start situation.

Holmes hasn't been the answer either. He's 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA, and his last time out he gave up 5 earned and 7 hits in 5 innings to Colorado. His xERA of 4.35 says the surface number is exactly what he is. This is a back-end starter the Cubs lineup can get to.

Chicago is 27-14 and 10-2 SU in their last 12. They're also 4-2 SU in their last 6 against Atlanta. Colin Rea has been steady at 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA and has gone 5+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts.

The opposition case is real. Rea's 4.50 xERA and .443 xSLG allowed say regression is coming, and Atlanta's pitching staff is legit. I get it. But +1.5 isn't asking the Cubs to win outright. It's asking them to lose by one or fewer against a depleted lineup behind a 4.34 ERA starter. That's a different question.

The price is the kicker. -170 was the open. The market has moved to roughly -192 to -200 after the Murphy news. I'm getting 20+ cents of value off current consensus.

I like the Cubs +1.5 (-170)

Tuesday's Free Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-195)

Minnesota is 3-8 SU in its last 11 home games and 6-12 SU in its last 18 overall. This isn't a team punishing visitors at Target Field right now. They're 18-23 and trending the wrong way.

Miami owns this matchup historically. The Marlins are 6-2 SU in their last 8 against Minnesota. That's a real pattern, not a small-sample fluke.

Bailey Ober is a get-able starter. The 4.19 ERA is mediocre, and his last outing was 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER against Washington. He's gone five-plus in every start, but the contact quality against him is real. A .243 xBA and .386 xSLG say hitters are squaring him up.

The opposition case centers on Eury Perez and his 5.01 ERA, and yes, that's the risk. Perez walked 5 in his last start and hasn't completed six innings in three straight. I'm not pretending that away. But I'm not betting Perez to outduel anyone. I'm betting Miami stays within a run, and the +1.5 cushion is the whole point of paying the juice here.

The 17 MPH NW wind at Target Field plays in Miami's favor too. NW wind at Target generally knocks down balls to left-center, and Minnesota's righty power (Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers) loses more from that than Miami's lefty-heavy lineup.

Give me the run and a half with the team that consistently beats this opponent against a home club that can't hold serve.

I like the Marlins +1.5 (-195)

Tuesday's Premium Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+128)

Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last six games against Texas, and the Diamondbacks just took the series opener 1-0. The market is still pricing them as a clear road dog at +128. That's the gap I'm playing.

The knock on this side is Zac Gallen's underlying profile. His 5.45 xERA and .301 xBA against suggest the surface 4.70 ERA is generous, and a Rangers lineup with three lefties at the top (Pederson, Nimmo, Seager) is a real matchup concern. I'm not dismissing it. But Gallen doesn't need to dominate here. He needs to keep this Rangers offense in check for five or six innings, and Texas is doing the heavy lifting on that front.

The Rangers have lost six of their last nine and the total has gone UNDER in nine straight home games at Globe Life Field. This is a lineup not driving in runs, missing Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, and Cody Freeman. Throwing Ildemaro Vargas at first isn't ideal for Arizona, but the bar to score against the current Rangers offense is low.

MacKenzie Gore has the better xERA at 4.17, but his last five starts tell the real story: 23.1 IP, 21 ER, 16 walks. He hasn't gone more than 5.1 innings in any of them. Texas is leaning on a fatigued bullpen.

Dog price, recent H2H dominance, struggling home team, opposing starter walking the park. That's the play.

I like the Diamondbacks ML (+128)