Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER on A's -105

The Athletics are in a prime spot to take this contest in front of their home crowd.
Seattle is coming off a cross-country flight and historical data shows they struggle in these quick turnarounds.

Oakland’s starter tonight has a FIP nearly a full run lower than his current ERA.
He is generating ground balls at a 52% clip which neutralizes the heart of the Mariners' order.

The Mariners are swinging and missing way too much early in this 2026 season.
They currently rank in the bottom five in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching.

Oakland’s bullpen has been a major bright spot over the last week.
Their high-leverage arms are fully rested after an off-day on Wednesday.

Seattle’s relief corps is thin right now due to a heavy workload in their previous series.
The Mariners used their closer two days in a row and he is likely unavailable for this Thursday night matchup.

The A's have a significant advantage in the late innings if this game stays close.
The market has this priced as a coin flip but the advanced metrics favor the home side.

Oakland is 4-1 in their last five home games against Seattle.
The Mariners' offense is averaging just 3.1 runs per game on the road so far this month.

I am backing the better pitching situation and the fresher bullpen in this spot.
Expect the A's to exploit a tired Seattle lineup that is struggling to find its rhythm.

Bet A's ML (-105).

5* NO BRAINER on St. Louis +2½

Georgia is laying points here because of their conference pedigree, but the metrics do not back it up.
The Bulldogs have struggled with defensive consistency and rank 115th in effective field goal percentage defense.

They are especially vulnerable on the perimeter where they allow opponents to shoot over 35% from deep.
St. Louis comes into this matchup with one of the most efficient backcourts in the country.

The Billikens shoot 38.4% from three-point range and rarely waste possessions.
They rank 22nd nationally in turnover percentage and will not give Georgia easy transition points.

The Bulldogs rely on their athleticism to bail them out, but they rank near the bottom of the SEC in half-court offensive efficiency.
St. Louis forces teams into long possessions and ranks in the top 30 in defensive rebounding rate.

They will not give Georgia second-chance opportunities or easy points at the rim.
This is a classic matchup of a disciplined program against a power-conference team that plays sloppy.

St. Louis is 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as an underdog of three points or fewer.
Georgia has failed to cover in five of their last seven games when favored by less than five points.

The Billikens have a major edge in late-game situations due to their superior free-throw shooting.
They shoot 78% as a team from the charity stripe compared to just 71% for the Bulldogs.

In a game with a spread this small, the team that hits their free throws usually walks away with the cover.
Georgia lacks a true floor general, which leads to stalled possessions in the final four minutes.

St. Louis is the more cohesive unit and they are playing with a massive chip on their shoulder.
The Billikens are healthy and have had four days to prep for this specific defensive look.

Take the points with the more efficient shooting team that protects the basketball.

I like the St. Louis +2.5 (-118)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on St. Mary's -3

St. Mary’s is going to choke the life out of this game and dictate the tempo from the opening tip. They play at one of the slowest paces in the nation and force every opponent to grind it out in the half-court.

Texas A&M relies on chaos and offensive rebounding to generate their scoring. The problem for the Aggies is that St. Mary’s is elite at closing out possessions on the defensive glass.

The Gaels rank in the top five nationally in defensive rebounding rate. They won't give A&M the second-chance opportunities they need to overcome their poor outside shooting.

Texas A&M struggles significantly when they are forced to become a jump-shooting team. Their effective field goal percentage is bottom-tier compared to other tournament-caliber rosters.

St. Mary’s brings a massive edge in offensive efficiency and ball security. They move the ball until they find the highest-percentage look, while A&M often settles for contested drives and late-clock prayers.

The Aggies' style of play leads to high foul counts and defensive breakdowns when the whistles are tight. St. Mary's is too disciplined to fall for the traps and pressure that usually work in the SEC.

St. Mary's comes into this matchup with a significant rest advantage after cruising through their conference tournament. They have had nearly a full week to install a defensive plan specifically designed to neutralize the A&M backcourt.

This line is too short for a team that executes this well on both ends of the floor. Expect the Gaels to pull away late as the Aggies' frustration leads to forced shots and empty possessions.

Bet St. Mary's -3 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Texas +2½

Texas is catching points in a game they are fully capable of winning outright. The Longhorns' defense is the clear difference-maker in this matchup.

They rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They specialize in forcing teams into contested looks late in the shot clock.

BYU relies heavily on the three-point shot to generate offense. When those long-range looks aren't falling, the Cougars struggle to find easy buckets.

Texas has the length on the perimeter to bother BYU's shooters for forty minutes. They rarely give up the wide-open transition threes that BYU thrives on.

Turnovers will play a massive role in this outcome. Texas is disciplined and ranks near the top of the country in offensive turnover percentage.

BYU does not force enough mistakes to disrupt the Longhorns' rhythm. Expect Texas to get high-quality looks on the majority of their possessions.

The battle on the glass favors the Longhorns significantly. Texas has a major edge in offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points.

BYU has struggled all season against physical frontcourts that crash the boards hard. Texas will use that size advantage to control the tempo and limit BYU's possessions.

This is a classic spot where a defensive-minded underdog holds the edge over a high-variance shooting team. BYU is too one-dimensional to be laying points against a team this balanced.

Texas has the veteran guard play required to execute in a tight game down the stretch. They will take care of the ball and make their free throws when it counts.

I like the Texas +2.5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on VCU +2½

VCU is catching points in a matchup where they have the clear defensive edge.
The Rams rank in the top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

They excel at taking away the three-point line and forcing teams into tough, contested mid-range shots.
North Carolina has been erratic lately and struggled against physical, ball-pressuring defenses.

The Tar Heels turn the ball over on nearly 18% of their possessions when facing top-tier defensive units.
VCU thrives on those mistakes and ranks elite in points off turnovers.

The Rams are also 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog.
North Carolina has failed to cover in five of their last seven games when favored by three points or fewer.

The pressure of the tournament often weighs heavy on the big-name schools in the opening round.
VCU comes in with massive momentum after suffocating their opponents in the conference tournament.

They have the size in the paint to neutralize UNC’s interior scoring and limit second-chance opportunities.
UNC relies heavily on fast-break points, but VCU’s transition defense is among the best in the country.

This game will likely be decided in the final two minutes on the free-throw line.
Getting a few points with the better defensive team is the sharp play here.

The Rams’ ability to dictate the tempo will keep UNC out of their preferred rhythm.
Expect a high-intensity battle that stays close until the final buzzer.

I like the VCU +2.5 (-108)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State -15½

Tom Izzo in March is a different animal and this is a nightmare matchup for North Dakota State. The Spartans have a massive talent advantage and the coaching edge is off the charts in a tournament setting.

Michigan State dominates the glass and currently ranks in the top 15 nationally in rebounding margin. North Dakota State does not have the size or the strength to keep the Spartans off the offensive boards.

The Bison rely heavily on the three-point shot to stay competitive against high-major programs. Michigan State’s perimeter defense is elite, holding opponents to a very low effective field goal percentage all season.

If the Bison aren't hitting contested triples at a high clip, they have no path to keeping this game close. The athletic gap between these two backcourts will be evident from the opening tip.

Michigan State’s guards will pressure the ball for 40 minutes and force turnovers in the half-court. North Dakota State has struggled with ball security throughout the season when facing Power Five athleticism.

The Spartans also have the bench depth to keep their defensive intensity high for the entire game. Izzo rarely lets his team take their foot off the gas in the opening round of the tournament.

North Dakota State is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against Big Ten opponents. They typically fade late in the second half when the physicality of a bigger team takes its toll.

Michigan State is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as a favorite. They are built to blow out inferior mid-major teams that can't match their length in the paint.

Expect the Spartans to establish their dominance early and never look back. This line is too low for a team with Michigan State's defensive discipline and tournament experience.

Bet Michigan State -15.5 (-115).

5* NO BRAINER on Nebraska -13

Nebraska is going to overwhelm Troy with pure size and length in this opening-round matchup.
The Huskers spent the entire season battling in the physical Big Ten and they are built for this type of postseason play.

Troy comes out of the Sun Belt and hasn't faced a defense with this kind of perimeter length all year.
The Trojans rely heavily on forcing turnovers to jumpstart their transition offense.

Nebraska is one of the most disciplined teams in the country when it comes to taking care of the basketball.
They rank in the top 30 nationally in turnover percentage and won't give Troy the easy buckets they need to stay close.

When this game settles into the half-court, Troy is going to struggle to find clean looks.
Nebraska’s effective field goal percentage defense is elite because they stay home on shooters and protect the rim.

The Trojans simply do not have the frontcourt depth to keep the Huskers off the glass.
Expect Nebraska to rack up second-chance points and live at the free-throw line throughout the second half.

Troy is far too reliant on the three-point shot to keep pace with a high-major scoring machine.
If their outside shots aren't falling at a high clip early, this lead will get out of hand fast.

Nebraska has been a cover machine lately, going 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when favored.
They do not take their foot off the gas and have the bench depth to keep the scoring margin wide late in the game.

The talent gap on the interior is a massive problem that Troy cannot solve with heart alone.
This is a blowout waiting to happen as the Huskers dominate the paint from the opening tip.

I like the Nebraska -13.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on High Point +10½

The main edge in this 12-vs-5 matchup is High Point’s elite offensive efficiency. They enter the tournament with the nation’s third-highest scoring offense at 90 points per game.

High Point is not just a high-volume team. They rank in the top 20 nationally in field goal percentage and possess the third-best offensive rating in college basketball.

Wisconsin is a disciplined group, but their defense hasn't seen this level of tempo in weeks. The Badgers are getting 7-footer Nolan Winter back from an ankle injury that cost him the last four games.

While Winter is the team's leading rebounder, his lateral mobility will be a major concern against a fast-paced Panther attack. High Point creates extra possessions by protecting the ball better than almost anyone in the country.

The Panthers rank second nationally with a plus-7.1 turnover margin. They also sit 13th in assist-to-turnover ratio, meaning they don't give away the easy transition points Wisconsin needs to cover large numbers.

Wisconsin relies heavily on the three-pointer, ranking fourth in the nation in makes per game. That strategy introduces massive variance on a neutral court in Portland.

If the Badgers aren't hitting at an elite clip, they won't have the defensive stops to pull away from a team that shoots 49 percent from the floor. High Point is riding a 14-game win streak and has the veteran guard play to stay composed under pressure.

The Badgers are just 3-4 against the spread on neutral sites this year. This line has already dropped from 11.5 to 10.5 as sharp money respects the Panthers' scoring ceiling.

Expect a high-possession game where the underdog has the firepower to trade buckets until the final whistle. High Point is one of the most dangerous 12-seeds in years.

I like the High Point +10.5 (-115)

1* Free Pick on Ohio State -2½

Ohio State enters this 8/9 matchup with the clear best player on the floor in Bruce Thornton. The senior guard is a four-year starter who leads a backcourt that is simply more efficient than what TCU brings to the table. Thornton is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc and does not buckle under pressure.

TCU relies on forcing 14 turnovers a game to fuel their transition offense. That strategy falls flat against a veteran floor general like Thornton who has seen every defensive scheme in the Big Ten. If the Horned Frogs cannot get easy buckets off steals, they have to rely on a half-court set that lacks punch.

The main problem for the Frogs is their lack of a perimeter threat. They are shooting just 30% from three-point range as a team this season. In a tournament setting, you cannot survive if you cannot space the floor against a disciplined defense.

Ohio State also solved their previous size issues by adding 7-footer Christoph Tilly. He provides the rim protection and rebounding needed to negate TCU's physical style in the paint. Tilly is averaging nearly 17 points and gives the Buckeyes an interior scoring option they lacked in recent years.

The Buckeyes have been playing their best basketball of the season lately. They have won four of their last five games including a huge victory over Purdue. They have the edge in eFG% and a massive advantage at the free-throw line.

Expect the Buckeyes to control the tempo and limit the second-chance opportunities that Jamie Dixon’s teams usually live on. The spread is short enough that we just need Ohio State to win by a single possession. They have the better shooters and the better closer to pull away late.

I like the Ohio State -2.5.

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5* NO BRAINER on Spurs -9

The Spurs are catching the Suns in the perfect situational spot tonight.
Phoenix played a physical game last night in Dallas and didn't arrive in San Antonio until the early morning hours.

This is the third game in four nights for a Suns team that is showing some serious leg weariness.
The line opened at 7.5 and has already been steamed up to 9 for a reason.

San Antonio has been a different beast at home lately.
They have covered the spread in six of their last seven games at the Frost Bank Center.

Victor Wembanyama is a nightmare matchup for a tired Phoenix frontcourt.
The Suns are struggling to protect the rim and rank in the bottom five in defensive efficiency over their last five games.

They are giving up way too many easy buckets in transition.
San Antonio plays with a top-five pace and will look to run the Suns off the floor from the jump.

When you look at the rest disadvantage, the Suns are just 2-8 ATS this season when playing with no rest.
They typically struggle to find their shooting rhythm on the second leg of a back-to-back.

On the other side, the Spurs have had two full days off to prepare for this matchup.
They are rested, healthy, and clicking on both ends of the floor right now.

Expect San Antonio to jump out to an early lead and never look back against a gassed Phoenix squad.
The Suns simply don't have the depth to keep up once the starters start fading in the second half.

This is a big number, but the situational spot favors the home team in a big way.
The Spurs have the size and the energy to blow this one open.

I like the Spurs -9