Mike Lundin

Mets vs Rays MLB Free Pick

Free Pick Run: 1-0

The Angle(s): The Tampa Bay Rays hand the ball to left-hander Ian Seymour (9-5, 4.21 ERA), who enters this interleague matchup backed by strong team trends. The Rays have been utterly dominant against National League competition, riding a sparkling 10-0 run against NL opponents. Seymour’s presence on the mound poses a major matchup problem for a New York lineup that has consistently cratered against left-handed pitching, stumbling to a 15-23 record (-28% ROI) when facing southpaw starters this season.

The New York Mets turn to veteran right-hander Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA), who has labored heavily through his outings. Stock was tagged for seven earned runs on 10 hits over four frames in his last turn against Milwaukee and faces a daunting task trying to contain a Tampa Bay squad sitting at 40-21 straight up at home. The runline record is not nearly as impressive though, suggesting plenty of one-run wins which is why I'm recommending the moneyline, not the spread.  

The Bet: Rays (3%). 

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LATE NIGHT Phillies vs Diamondbacks MLB BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.51 ERA), who has provided steady run suppression and exceptional command throughout his campaign. Pfaadt has been an absolute bank note for bettors this season, with Arizona posting a stellar 10-2 mark across his 12 starts. 

The Philadelphia Phillies counter with veteran right-hander Aaron Nola (5-10, 5.03 ERA), who continues to navigate a brutal, long-ball-plagued season. Nola has surrendered 32 home runs and carries a 1.38 WHIP, leaving him extremely susceptible to damage in a hitter-friendly environment at Chase Field. Philadelphia has lost 11 of Nola's 26 starts this season, making them a dangerous fade on the road.

The Bet: Diamondbacks (3%). 

4% MLB Moneyline TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Milwaukee eft-hander Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79 ERA) has been stellar at run prevention all season, issuing 127 strikeouts and giving up just one run against 13 Ks over 10 innings across his last two starts. Harrison has faced the Cubs twice this season, holding them to two runs on five hits while fanning 20 batters over 12 innings of work. 

The Cubs turn to right-hander Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26 ERA). While his surface ERA is strong, Holmes has a modest 55 strikeouts across 75 2/3 innings pitched. Managing continuous baserunners against a patient Milwaukee lineup leaves him little room for error.

Chicago enters this series winning just three of their last 10 games, while division-leading Milwaukee has a reverse 7-3 record L10 and holds an eight-game cushion atop the NL Central.

The Bet: Brewers (4%). 

5% AL Total of the Year MEGA MAX

The Angle(s): Chicago White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay (9-6, 4.35 ERA) enters this matchup struggling to find consistency over his recent turns. Kay has labored through a 5.06 ERA over his past three starts, and pitching on the road at Daikin Park against a Houston lineup that averages 4.56 runs per game (10th in MLB) creates a high-risk scenario for the left-hander.

The Astros turn to right-hander Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA), whose overall respectable metrics mask a severe late-season slump. Lambert has posted an alarming 8.16 ERA across his past three outings (14 1/3 IP), giving up hits at a worrying rate and struggling with command. He now faces a White Sox offense ranking 5th in the majors with 4.8 runs scored per game. 

The Bet: Over (5%).