Ray Monohan

Houston -2.5

Houston doesn't need to be pretty here. It needs to make Dallas uncomfortable, and that's exactly where this matchup points. The Texans have already produced 11 sacks, giving that front a real chance to disrupt Dak Prescott before his receivers can take over the game. On the other side, this is the defense C.J. Stroud needs to see. Dallas is allowing nearly 180 rushing yards per game, opponents are converting 59% on 3rd down, and 69% of red-zone trips are ending in TD's. Houston has struggled to finish drives, but the Cowboys have been handing out defensive solutions like party favors. The Texans can lean on the run, keep Stroud out of obvious passing situations and attack a Dallas defense dealing with injuries. Houston is 0-3, so nobody needs to start planning the parade. I do like the desperation spot at home, though, and getting -2.5 instead of laying the key number of 3 matters. Lay it. Back Houston.

Sunday 5* NFL ATS Play

OVER 51

I'm expecting points here because both QB's are playing at a high level and these offenses are finishing drives. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 7 TD's against only 2 INT's, while Joe Burrow has 6 TD's with just 1 INT. Jacksonville is converting 53% on 3rd down and a ridiculous 89% of its red-zone trips into TD's. That's a major edge against a Cincy defense allowing 260 passing yards per game, and the Bengals pass rush didn't create enough disruption against Pittsburgh. On the other side, Burrow is coming off 282 yards and 3 TD's, and Cincinnati has enough weapons to answer if Jacksonville starts fast. The Jags just hung 35 on New England, while Cincy scored 27 at Pittsburgh, so both offenses enter this matchup showing some juice. Even with a total of 51, I see both sides reaching the high 20's with a legitimate path into the 60's. Take the OVER.

Sunday 4* NFL O/U Play

UNDER 51.5

Hawaii and San Jose State have value to the under. These are two offenses that are very one dimensional and they love to slow the game down. Neither team has much of an explosive playmaker, which has led to both running the ball a lot. Hawaii is only averaging 18.8 ppg and they just scored a mere 10 against a Wyoming team that struggles defensively. San Jose State fared no better last week themselves, only putting up 10 as well in a loss to Fresno State. This will be a game where both teams eat a lot of this clock with their run games and we see field position be the point of emphasis. Back the under.

Saturday 3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout O/U Play

Bills -6.5

Buffalo has too many advantages here for me to get scared off laying less than a TD. The Bills are 3-0 while producing more than 4 TD's per game, converting 55% on 3rd down and cashing 75% of their red-zone opportunities. New England is at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Pats have scored a TD on just 1 of 6 red-zone trips, while Drake Maye has thrown 1 TD against 6 INT's. That's a brutal combination when you're trying to keep pace with Josh Allen. Buffalo can also lean on James Cook and a ground game averaging 155 yards per game. New England has already surrendered 325 rushing yards, so Buffalo doesn't need Allen throwing it all over the yard to create separation. The Bills defense should eventually force Maye into obvious passing situations, and that's where this matchup gets ugly. We're laying 6.5 instead of crossing the key number of 7. Back Buffalo.

Sunday 3* NFL ATS Play

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

4/5 top plays 350-278 56% +3582 L3 years!** The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Broncos +3

I'm taking the full FG with Denver in a matchup where the sportsbooks are giving San Francisco plenty of respect for its 3-0 start. The Niners have been excellent offensively, but this number matters. I have San Fran priced closer to a 1-point favorite, which gives us value catching the full FG with Denver. The Broncos have also shown some serious fight, erasing double-digit halftime deficits in back-to-back wins over Jacksonville and the Rams. That's not something I want to ignore when I'm catching a key number with a dog that has already proven it can survive ugly stretches. Bo Nix has to be better early because slow starts against this SF offense are dangerous. Denver's defense can create enough pressure to keep this from turning into a track meet. I'm not asking the Broncos to outplay the Niners for 60 minutes. I need them hanging around and making this a 4th-quarter game. Take the FG. Back Denver.

Sunday 2* NFL ATS Play

Seahawks -7

Seattle is in a great bounce-back spot, and I'm comfortable laying the TD against a Chargers team that hasn't scored more than 16 points in a game. The Seahawks defense is allowing only 142 passing yards and 87 rushing yards per game, while holding opponents to just 27% on 3rd down. That's a nasty matchup for a Chargers offense already struggling to sustain drives. Justin Herbert has 3 TD's against 4 INT's, and LA has turned the ball over 6 times through three games. At this rate, Herbert might want to grab a Madison Beer and watch the 4th quarter from the couch. (Dad Joke) The Chargers forced 5 turnovers against Buffalo last week and still lost by 8. Seattle should have success on the other side too. The Seahawks are averaging 267 passing yards per game, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba already has 405 receiving yards. After giving away a winnable game in Washington, I expect a cleaner effort from Seattle at home. Lay the TD. Back Seattle.

Sunday 1* NFL ATS Play