Scott Rickenbach

Contrarian Crusher - 10* OVER 8 in Houston - Great line value here because Kyle Gibson has a low ERA this season but is struggling now and Framber Valdez had great numbers against the Rangers last season but is struggling now. I know Texas has not been scoring well but they can get to Valdez here. He has a 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts. As for Gibson, he has the impressive full season numbers but has allowed 13 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. 8 of the 10 games between these teams have gone over the total including 6 of 7 meetings in Houston. This total is only an 8 and the Rangers have allowed 7.3 runs per game during their current 10-game losing streak. Astros have won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 wins. Again, the low posted total makes sense based on Gibson's full season numbers and Texas struggling to score runs but the key factors here are that Gibson is currently struggling and so to is Valdez. Also, the over is 4-1 in home starts for Valdez and 7-2 in road starts for Gibson this season. 10* OVER 8 in Houston

Earliest Cash - 8* Philadelphia -115 - The Phillies Velasquez is certainly not known as a dominating pitcher but he does pitch better at home where he has a 3.62 ERA and Philadelphia is 5-2 in his starts this season. Also he has had success against the Braves with just 4 earned runs allowed in 14 and 1/3 innings while striking out 20 in his last 3 starts against them. He'll come up big here against a Braves lineup hurting without Acuna. As for Atlanta starter Smyly, he has faced the Phillies twice this season and has a 6.75 ERA and allowed 3 homers in 9 and 1/3 innings. Smyly allowed 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent road start. With yesterday's Philadelphia win, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 at home on the year and the Braves are below .500 on the road this season. Atlanta has lost 5 of last 8 games overall. Phillies have won 13 of 20 home games and get another W here as Velasquez continues his success against the Braves lineup and Smyly's struggles this season against the Phillies resume again. 8* PHILADELPHIA -115

Daytime TV Dominator - 8* OVER 9 in Boston - I know the Yankees lineup is missing some guys but they just saw Eovaldi. For that matter, the Red Sox just saw Taillon too. Before scoring just 2 runs yesterday the short-handed Yankees still had averaged 6 runs per game last 4 games. They will get to Eovaldi here but the bigger story could be Taillon getting crushed. The Yankees righty is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his road starts this season and all 7 of them went over the total. This one will too. The Red Sox are averaging 7.8 runs per game last 4 games. 8* OVER 9 in Boston

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Saturday Free Pick Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line +140 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - Merrill Kelly has been the hottest pitcher for the Dbacks and offers solid underdog value here as a result. The only thing that prevented this from being a premium play for me was the fact that the Diamondbacks have been so bad on the road this season. However, Kelly is 4-0 in his last 6 starts and has given up a total of only 9 earned runs in those outings. Arizona had won 4 straight games before yesterday's loss and they actually outhit the Cubs in the defeat yesterday. Look for an upset here as Chicago had lost 4 of 5 before yesterday's win and Alec Mills has been solid, but not spectacular, on the mound for the Cubs. Free Pick ARIZONA