Ross Benjamin

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Memphis @ Milwaukee 9:05 PM ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Under 238.0

Every now and again you need to make an extremely uncomfortable pick to be successful in sports betting. This selection certainly qualifies in that regard considering the recent offensive scoring prowess both teams have displayed in recent games. Case in point, Milwaukee has scored 119 points or more in 7 of its last 8 games. Conversely, Memphis has scored 125 points or greater during 5 of their previous 7 contests. However, NBA betting history over the past 25 seasons indicates that when there’s a total this high, and similar betting data to this matchup occurs, it’s highly probable the game will go under.

Milwaukee is coming off an 120-109 win at Atlanta in their previous game. That victory improved their season record to 35-20 (.636). Memphis is coming off last night’s 126-115 win at Chicago which now makes them 28-26 (.518) for the season.

Any team (Milwaukee) with a total of 230.0 or greater that’s playing before Game 74 of their season, and they’re coming off a road win which improved their win percentage to between .600 and .750, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .505 to .735, resulted in those contests playing 40-4 (90.9%) to the under since the 1996-1997 season began. Bet on this game to go under the total.

Golden State @ Boston 8:35 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Boston -4.5 (10*)

Golden State has been reinvigorated since Stephen Curry returned from injury. The Warriors are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4. However, hold the phone because 3 of those victories have come over Houston, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland. Those 3 teams have a combined season record of 54-113 (.323). Additionally, Oklahoma City is currently on a 9-game losing streak and Houston has gone an abysmal 4-31 over its last 35 contests.

Boston is starting to like the team I thought they would be heading into this season. They have won 5 straight and covered each of their last 4 with 3 of those coming on the road. The Celtics are also 4-0 ATS iun their previous 4 as a home favorite of 3.5 or greater and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Bet on Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Astros (Greinke) @ Mariners (Flexen) 9:10 PM ET

Game# 977-978

Play On: Seattle +114 (5*)

These teams are currently headed in opposite directions. Houston has lost 6 straight while Seattle is 6-1 during their previous 7 games. Houston starter Zack Greinke isn’t nearly the power pitcher he once was earlier in his career. During his previous 2 starts he’s allowed 4 home runs in 11 2/3 innings pitched. That’s not good news for Houston backers when considering Seattle has hit 13 homers over their last 7 games. Additionally, the Astros bullpen has surrendered 5 homers during their previous 7 games while posting a lofty staff ERA of 5.34 while doing so.

Chris Flexen was sharp in his only home start of the season while pitching 5.0 innings of scoreless baseball. The Mariners bullpen has been superb during their current 6-1 run with a staff ERA of 0.92 and they failed to give up a home runs during that stretch. Bet on Seattle for a 5* money line wager.

Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Padres (Darvish) 8:40 PM ET

Game# 963-964

Play On: Under 7.0 (5*)

Both teams have gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Neither team has yet to go over the total in 3 consecutive games this season.

There will be a pair of elite starting pitchers facing each other tonight. Yu Darvish gets the nod for San Diego and he’s compiled a brilliant 1.38 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his last 2 starts over 13.0 innings pitched. Darvish will be facing a Dodgers lineup which has averaged a robust 1.43 home runs per game this season. However, Darvish has pitched 36-14 (72%) to the under iun his careers when facing teams that average 1.25 or more home runs per game. Darvish can take comfort in knowing that his bullpen has been consistently good this season which is evidenced by a staff ERA of 2.62 and 1.08 WHIP.

Clayton Kershaw gets the call for Los Angeles and he’s registered a 0.69 ERA in his previous 2 starts during 13.0 inning pitched. During their last 7 games the Dodgers bullpen has a stellar 1.80 ERA. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager.

Giants (Sanchez) @ Marlins (Alcantara) 6:10 PM ET

Game# 957-958

Play On: Under 7.5 (5*)

The Giants are coming off a 4-1 loss at Miami last night and have now gone under in each of its last 5 road games with a combined average of only 4.6 runs scored per occurrence. San Francisco will send Aaron Sanchez to the mound and he’s witnessed each of his first 2 starts going under while posting a sparkling 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Sanchez has gone 27-11 to the under in his career in starts in which there was a total of 7.0 to 8.5. The Giants bullpen has an outstanding 2.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. The Giants will be facing a Marlins team that’s averaging only 0.85 home runs per game in 2021. Since 2019, San Francisco has played 20-7 to the under versus teams that average 0.90 or fewer home runs per game.

Miami will go with Sandy Alcantara as their starting pitcher today. Alcantara has made 3 starts in 2021 and has recorded an excellent 2.45 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP. All 3 of those games went under the total. Alcantara has made 2 career starts against San Francisco and compiled an exceptional 0.69 ERA in 13.0 innings of work. Alcantara will be facing a Giants team that has a poor .373 slugging percentage thus far in 2021. The Marlins hurler has gone 10-1 to the under in his career when facing National League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse. Since 2019, Miami has played 6-1 to the under when going up against San Francisco. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager.