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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Dayton covers on Friday night at VCU because the spread (buying anywhere from +6.5 to +7.5) is asking the Rams to win this game outright rather than just keep it close. The game total is forecast to be fairly high (about 148.5–149.5), so Dayton has more avenues to cover because possessions come quicker in higher-total games and scoring swings come faster. Dayton has enough guard scoring to answer runs, plus the Flyers aren’t relying on one player to carry them as Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery both average about 16 points per game. Being two-guard oriented will help Dayton on the road when they have to endure the Rams push in the second half at the Siegel Center.
The other facet of the game that helps Dayton find a path to clean up at covers is because VCU’s rotation is very much in question. Head coach Mike Rhoades indicated in his availability on Wednesday that there are question marks surrounding his frontcourt/rotation. Inconsistent play or missed time from contributors can change the dynamic of the game in a spread contest due to rebounding, fouling flexibility, and full-court pressure sustainability. Dayton has a few notes of their own (biggest name being Jaiun Simon questionable), but for the purposes of nailing a cover the Flyers simply need to stay functional against pressure defense. They do not need to play a perfect game. If Dayton can take care of the ball against VCU’s full-court press, the points become oh so precious late in the game. Yes, VCU can still win this game comfortably at home, but Dayton’s offensive capabilities combined with the expected pace and game total lend themselves to a one-to-two possession game. A one-to-two possession game is exactly what you want when you’re laying six or seven points.
Jim's Play: 875. Dayton
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