Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Orioles/White Sox UNDER 7.5

There will be 20-25 MPH winds blowing in from right-center field in Chicago this afternoon to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket.  This total has been set too high today given the forecast.

Kyle Bradish is the ace of the Orioles this season.  He is 19-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 69 career starts.  Bradish held the White Sox to one earned run with 9 K's in 5 innings of a 4-1 win in his lone career start against them.

Sean Burke is perhaps the most underrated starter for the White Sox.  He has gone 6-12 with a 3.86 ERA in 26 starts and eight relief appearances.  Burke has 12 K's in 10 innings with a 3.60 ERA in two games this season.  He held the Orioles to one run in 4 innings in his lone start against them last season.

These are two struggling lineups.  The White Sox are hitting .206 and scoring just 3.5 runs per game thus far, while the Orioles are hitting .245 and scoring 3.6 runs per game.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between Baltimore and Chicago with 6 or fewer combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 9-2 OVER in all games this season with 8 or more combined runs in nine of their 11 games.  They have a terrible bullpen with a 7.49 ERA on the season, and a potent lineup.

The Cubs also have a potent lineup scoring 4.6 runs per game with the Rays scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The Cubs also have a shaky bullpen with a 4.57 ERA on the season.  And there's not a lot to love about either starter today.

Colin Rea is 37-27 with a 4.41 ERA in 612 1/3 innings in his career in the big leagues with a 4.26 ERA in two games thus far in 2026.  Joe Boyle is 6-10 with a 4.82 ERA in 127 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Yankees OVER 8

The Yankees are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 13, 16, 10, 8 and 8 combined runs.  All four of their home games this season have seen 8 or more combined runs.  The A's are 4-0 OVER in their last three games overall with 15, 11, 22 & 8 combined runs.

The Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own today.  Luis Severino went 8-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 29 starts last season.  Severino is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  Severino faced the Yankees twice last season, allowing 13 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Will Warren is 10-11 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 40 career starts in the big leagues.  The A's will get to him, too.  The A's have a 5.48 ERA as a bullpen this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Marlins OVER 7.5

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 97-66 OVER in all home games since 2024.  The Marlins remain an OVER team this season going 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  This total of 7.5 is very short for a game involving the Marlins right now.

Brady Singer has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 5 earned runs and 14 base runners in 9 innings.  Eury Perez has posted a 5.73 ERA in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -116

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound over the Washington Nationals today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Max McGreevy is 11-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 21 starts and two relief appearances in his career.  He is 0-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in two starts this season.

37-year-old Miles Mikolas went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts in 2023, 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 31 starts in 2025.  He has been even worse thus far in 2026, going 0-2 with a 14.46 ERA in two starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Nationals OVER 8.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 9-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their 11 games this season.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.  They are scoring 6.4 runs per game and allowing 6.6 runs per game.

The Cardinals are capable of covering this total on their own against 37-year-old Miles Mikolas.  He went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts in 2023, 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 31 starts in 2025.  He has been even worse thus far in 2026, going 0-2 with a 14.46 ERA in two starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 1/3 innings.

Michael McGreevy has been solid for the Cardinals, but the Nationals will get to him and this St. Louis bullpen enough to cash this OVER ticket.  The Cardinals have a 5.67 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 6.39 ERA as a bullpen.  The Cardinals are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are locked in to the 6th seed in the West.  They have nothing to play for in these final three games.  I anticipated they would rest starters when I released this play, and that's precisely what they have done.  They will be without Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Mike Conley with both Rudo Gobert and Jaden McDaniels downgraded to questionable.  Their biggest concern is having everyone healthy for the playoffs.

The Magic need this win like blood.  They sit in 8th place in the East just a half-game ahead of the Hornets in 9th place, tied with the 76ers in 7th place, and one game behind the Raptors for 6th place.  They are only two games behind the Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division, and the Hawks have a brutal remaining schedule that could have the Magic catching them.

Either way, the Magic will be max motivated to get a win tonight, and they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and playing well as a result.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back to the Hawks, who are the hottest team in the East.

The Magic recently got back Franz Wagner and Anthony Black, two of their top four scorers that they desperately missed.  They are a dangerous team when they are as healthy as they are right now and that's showing.  They should make easy work of the Timberwolves tonight.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML +105

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 5th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are one game ahead of the Raptors and 2 games ahead of the 76ers and Magic.  They can grab a stranglehold on the division title with a win tonight.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 18-3 SU & 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 16 of those 18 wins have come by double-digits.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.

The Cavs aren't motivated right now.  They are just fine being the 4th seed in the East which would allow them to avoid the Celtics in the 2nd round.  They trail the Knicks by one game for the 3rd seed and lose out on the tiebreaker with the Knicks as well.  The Cavs play the Hawks in a home-and-home situation over their next two games.  They are likely to play the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs, so they don't want to show their hand in these two games.  

That's why they have decided to sit Jaylon Tyson, and Donavan Mitchell is questionable as well.  The Cavs are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall and have been going through the motions for weeks.  They don't care about winning this game, and the wrong team is favored as a result.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.