Alex Smart

Devils 8-2-0 (tied for NHL's best start, 1st in East/Metro), Sharks 2-6-2 (30th in goals diff at -14). Devils atop league; Sharks rebuilding with youth like Celebrini/Misa but 0-3-2 at home.Devils won 3-1 last Friday vs Sharks (Oct 24) – 13-0 shot edge in 2nd period, 2 PPGs (Hamilton). Sharks leaky at home; Im also betting Devils bounce back from 8-4 loss to Colorado (self-inflicted penalties).

Play on Devils to win

Edmonton Oilers (5-4-2) have flipped the script at home with a 3-1 record, including their latest 6-3 demolition of Utah on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the New York Rangers (4-5-2) are limping through their season-long road trip: losses like 6-5 OT to San Jose, 5-1 to Calgary, before a gritty 2-0 shutout at Vancouver snapped a three-game skid. However, the Rangers are 0-4-1 on the road lately lately w/ injuries. ( Panarin (7 pts), Fox (9 pts); missing Trocheck (upper-body), Rempe (long-term)

key here will be the Oiler PP that is 4th NHL (30%)— and McDavid/Draisaitl literally unstoppable.

Goalies: Skinner (3-3-1, 4-1 career vs NYR, 1.80 GAA) -Shesterkin (2-4-2, 1-3 career vs EDM)

Tonight Im betting on Edmonton's elite PP exploiting the NYR's tired D-core on the road (Rangers rank 30th in GF/game at 2.2).

Play on the Oilers puckline -1.5

This line seems inflated considering the matchup. UTSA's offense, particularly their efficient passing attack, is viewed as a strong counter to a Tulane defensive backfield that has been vulnerable at times this season.  Furthermore, UTSA is playing at home in a controlled indoor environment (the Alamodome), and my projections estimate  r a tight, one-possession game, which makes taking the 4.5  points  a viable betting option. Note:UTSA in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. are 5-0 ATS dating back to last season.

Play on UTSA

  Both teams involved in this game are averaging less than 115 points per game (PPG) in the early part of the current season. This points towards a lower-scoring affair.

  The Orlando Magic had the best (No. 1) defense in the league last season, allowing only 105.5 points per game. This establishes their track record as a strong defensive team.

What we have here today is a pace mismatch":  which implies that one team plays at a much faster or slower pace than the other, which can complicate the scoring environment and potentially favor the "Under" if a slow-paced team is controlling the game, which i believe will be the case here this evening.

Bottom line"Both offenses are a mess, both defenses are top 10 schedule adjusted. Pace is the complicator here and the under thus offers value.

Charlotte games in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 are 21-6 under since last season.

Play on the under

The San Antonio Spurs are performing very well at home, having won straight up (SU) and covered the point spread (ATS) in all $4$ games they have played so far . This highlights a strong home-court advantage and betting trend for the Spurs. .Meanwhile, the Heat are  3-1   have a poor historical record against the spread (ATS) when they are significant underdogs (+5.5 or more points), going 7-8-1 L/15 in the previous season. This suggests the market often overestimates their ability to keep games close when they are big dogs.

Im betting on SAS Wemby dominating: This is a key factor and likely the main reason for this fairly high confidence selection. 

NBA  team - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 95-46 ATS since 2017 for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Spurs

Thunder are off to a Elite start  (5–0) and  have been  dominant at home, but  expected to be without Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.  Walking wounded also starting to be a concern Thunder possibly shorthanded which is a reason for a  lower blowout potential.

Wizards (1–3) are an : Inconsistent  group but have kept games close vs. stronger teams, often losing by 10 or less points

Expected Value: Positive (+EV) — around 5.2–5.5% edge, which is meaningful in betting terms.

Expected Value (EV) Calculation Example:

EV=(0.58×0.893)−(0.42×1)=+0.097→+9.7%ROIEV = (0.58 × 0.893) - (0.42 × 1) = +0.097 → +9.7\% ROIEV=(0.58×0.893)−(0.42×1)=+0.097→+9.7%ROI

(This assumes +15.5 has a 58% true win rate. Obvious value with the underdog)

Play on the Wizards to cover

The statistics  paint a clear and concerning picture of a Mimai run defense that is struggling both in efficiency and volume:27th in rush EPA allowed (Expected Points Added): This is a key metric showing that opponents are consistently gaining efficient, high-value yardage on the ground. A high EPA allowed means every time an opponent runs the ball, they are likely increasing their chances of scoring.:28th in rushing yards allowed per game (145 yards): This figure confirms the volume problem. Opponents are able to rack up a large number of rushing yards, indicating they can run the ball effectively for an entire game.29th in yards per carry allowed: This is a metric of inefficiency and poor execution. Allowing a high yards-per-carry average suggests issues like:

Bottom line is just Poor Tackling by the Fins: Defenders are not wrapping up and bringing the runner down quickly.Gap Integrity Issues: Defensive linemen and linebackers are failing to maintain their assigned gaps, allowing the runner to find large, open lanes.

Baltimore behind RB Henry and now healthy and mobile QB Lamar Jackson are formidable opponents for Miami and my projections estimate a solid margin of victory that goes beyond what the lines-makers are offering. 

Baltimore after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 10-2 ATS L/12.

I know the Dolphins are off a big underdog win but it must be noted NFLteam - in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog zare just 13-39 ATS since 2016 for a go against 75% conversion rate.