Alex Smart

As the NBA season rolls into mid-December, the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to dominate the Western Conference with a blistering 24-2 record, showcasing one of the league's most explosive offenses. Averaging over 120 points per game through their first 26 contests, OKC has consistently overwhelmed opponents with efficient scoring from all levels, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-caliber play and Chet Holmgren's rim protection that fuels fast breaks. Tonight, they host a struggling Los Angeles Clippers squad that's mired in a six-game losing streak and sporting a dismal 6-20 overall mark. With the Thunder favored by a whopping 17.5 to 18.5 points, this matchup screams blowout potential,,,but don't let the lopsided spread fool you into thinking it'll be a low-scoring affair. Historical betting trends point definitively to the over on the 222.5 total, a line that feels undervalued given the angles at play.

Digging into the data, non-divisional conference games featuring double-digit spreads have been a goldmine for over bettors, cashing at a 325-244 clip (57.1%) over the past five seasons. This exact scenario fits the bill, as OKC and LA are Western Conference foes from different divisions, and the Thunder's massive favoritism aligns perfectly with systems that reward high totals in these spots. Adding fuel to the fire, teams on extended losing streak, like the Clippers, who haven't tasted victory in weeks, tend to leak points when facing well-rested opponents. Specifically, squads on a four-game (or longer) skid against teams coming off two or more days of rest have trended over at a 128-89-2 rate (59%) since the 2020-21 season. OKC enters with ample recovery time, while the Clippers are grinding through a denser schedule, playing their third game in over a week,a rest disparity that historically pushes scores higher, with overs hitting 33-22 (60%) in similar 2-days-rest versus extended-layoff setups since last year.

Beyond the situational trends, the team-specific metrics make this over even more compelling. The Thunder's offense ranks among the elite, posting 122.7 points per 100 possessions in the 2025-26 campaign, thanks to a balanced attack that excels in transition (14.6 fastbreak points per game) and inside the arc (52.2 points in the paint). On the flip side, the Clippers' defense has been porous, surrendering a defensive rating of 110.8, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They've allowed 115 or more points in each of their recent losses, a vulnerability exacerbated by injuries and poor perimeter containment. In games where a rested powerhouse faces a fatigued underdog, totals often inflate due to pace mismatches; rested teams like OKC push the tempo, while tired defenses struggle to rotate, leading to easy buckets and inflated scores.

Another angle worth highlighting is the blowout factor itself. While some assume large spreads lead to unders due to garbage time, the opposite holds in non-conference or intra-conference mismatches: overs have gone 230-187 (55.2%) in non-conference double-digit games, and similar patterns emerge in conference play when the favorite is at home. Even if OKC builds a big lead early, second units often keep the scoreboard ticking with up-tempo play, especially against a Clippers bench that's been outscored by double digits in recent outings. Factor in LA's desperation to snap their skid ,they rank high in pace during losses, attempting to outrun their defensive woesand you've got a recipe for a game that eclipses 222.5 without much sweat.

Public betting trends add a contrarian edge here, with early money leaning under due to the low line and blowout fears, but sharp action is piling on the over at sportsbooks , as it should be. For context, NBA games involving top offenses like the Thunder against bottom-10 defenses have overs cashing at 64% this season when rest advantages are in play. Monitor injury reports closely, absences like Gilgeous-Alexander could swing things ,but assuming full health, this is a confident play at -110 odds.

As the Missouri Valley Conference ramps up its early-season intrigue, tonight's matchup between the Illinois State Redbirds and the Southern Illinois Salukis at Banterra Center in Carbondale offers a prime betting opportunity for sharp eyes. The Salukis enter as a modest -2.5 home favorite across major sportsbooks l, where the line sits at -110, and the total hovers around 154.5 points. This mid-major clash pits two teams with contrasting styles, but digging into the trends and angles reveals why backing the Redbirds as underdogs could be the savvy play in what my predictive models suggest is a virtual coin-flip game.

Illinois State, boasting an 8-3 overall record, has been quietly efficient on offense this season, ranking 65th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 70th in two-point shooting while maintaining a crisp 61st in turnover rate. This balance has fueled a strong recent run, with the Redbirds covering the spread in five of their last six outings—a trend that highlights their resilience against the number, especially as road underdogs. Bettors will note that Illinois State has also cashed on the moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games, generating a solid +10.05 units in ROI at 7%, underscoring their knack for outright upsets in close contests. On the flip side, Southern Illinois leans heavily on an interior-dominated attack, deriving a whopping 64% of their points from two-pointers—the highest mark in Division I—but this one-dimensional approach could play right into the Redbirds' hands, as they hold opponents to just 49% shooting inside the arc, ranking 112th nationally in that defensive metric.

Delving deeper into the betting angles, this game screams "wrong team favored" based on my own advanced analytics. Historically, the series has favored the Salukis at home, with Illinois State going just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings against Southern Illinois, but current form flips the script: the Redbirds' shooting efficiency and low-turnover play could neutralize SIU's rebounding edge, which has been a key factor in their 2-4 ATS skid over recent games. Moreover, MVC road underdogs like Illinois State have shown value in December spots, particularly when facing teams with over-reliance on paint scoring, as conference play intensifies and defenses adjust to familiar foes.

Another angle worth highlighting is the first-half potential, where Illinois State has covered the spread in 22 of their last 36 games, offering a hedge for those wary of late-game foul trouble or home-court whistles. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, has struggled to pull away early against balanced offenses, going 1-4 straight-up in their last five as underdogs but showing vulnerability as short favorites, trends that align with broader MVC patterns where home teams in low-spread games (under 3 points) have covered at just a 45% clip this month. .

All told, while my powe rating projections lean toward a narrow Salukis win (78-76 on average), . For bettors hunting value in a slate light on marquee matchups, grabbing the Redbirds +2.5 at -110 represents a high-upside play backed by offensive metrics, recent covering streaks, and market mispricings. Don't sleep on this MVC gem—Illinois State could not only cover but steal one outright on the road.

As Thursday Night Football rolls into Week 16, all eyes are on the NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. With both teams locked at 11-3 records and vying for division supremacy, this clash carries massive playoff implications, potentially deciding seeding and home-field advantage. The betting landscape has shifted slightly, with the Seahawks opening as slim 1.5-point favorites and the total hovering around 42.5 to 44.5 across sportsbooks, reflecting a market wary of offensive fireworks in what could be a sloppy, defensive battle. Oddsmakers have baked in the elements, as Seattle's forecast calls for a chilly evening with temperatures dipping to around 44-50 degrees Fahrenheit, an 87% chance of rain, and southwest winds gusting up to 10-22 mph, conditions that historically suppress scoring and favor ground games over aerial attacks.

The weather angle alone tilts this matchup toward a lower-scoring affair, but it's amplified by the stout defenses on both sides. The Rams boast the NFL's top-ranked fantasy defense this season, racking up 42 sacks and 16 interceptions while forcing turnovers at a league-leading clip. They've been particularly stingy against the pass, allowing just 312 passing yards per game in recent outings, and their ability to generate pressure could exploit Seattle's offensive line, which has surrendered pressure on 39% of dropbacks. On the flip side, the Seahawks rank sixth in fantasy defensive scoring, with 37 sacks and a swarming unit under coordinator Mike Macdonald that's improved dramatically since midseason, posting a -34.0% DVOA over the last month, up from -16.3% earlier in the year. Seattle's defense excels at limiting explosive plays, ranking second in expected points added per play allowed at -0.12, making it tough for the Rams' high-octane offense to break free, especially if rain slicks the field and winds disrupt timing routes.

Diving into trends, the under has been a profitable play in similar scenarios. Head-to-head, the Rams and Seahawks have trended under in five of their last seven meetings, including their Week 9 clash this season where the total closed at 48 but finished at just 38 points in a gritty 20-18 Rams win. Seattle's home games have gone under the total in 60% of contests this year when winds exceed 10 mph, as the elements compound their defensive prowess and force opponents into conservative play-calling. Meanwhile, the Rams, despite averaging 28 points per game overall, have seen their scoring dip to 22.5 on the road in December over the past three seasons, a nod to Sean McVay's teams tightening up in late-year battles. Betting data shows sharp money leaning under, with 55% of the handle on the low side at major books, while public action splits evenly, creating value as lines have dropped from an opening 45.5 to as low as 42.5 in spots. My models are, projecting a controlled pace with totals in the 37-40 range, emphasizing short-week fatigue and the likelihood of field goals over touchdowns in inclement weather.

From a broader angle, this game's under appeal stems from pace-of-play metrics: Both teams rank in the bottom half league-wide in plays per game (Rams 25th, Seahawks 18th), preferring methodical drives that chew clock rather than up-tempo shootouts. Add in potential injury concerns, such as Rams wideout Davante Adams nursing a hamstring and Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet dealing with a shoulder, and offenses could lean heavily on the run, where Seattle allows a stingy 4.1 yards per carry and L.A. isn't far behind at 4.3. Historical December TNF unders hit at a 65% clip when rain is in the forecast, per Action Network trends, further bolstering the case for a slogfest.

. In a game defined by defense, weather, and divisional familiarity, expect points to come at a premium, making this a prime spot to fade the over and cash in on a low-scoring thriller. .

The inaugural Xbox Bowl pits the Missouri State Bears (7-5) against the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) in a neutral-site clash at Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas, . This matchup features a first-year FBS program in Missouri State, fresh off a surprising Conference USA campaign, facing a Sun Belt squad that's scraped into bowl eligibility for the third straight year. Current odds have fluctuated slightly, with Arkansas State listed as a slim 1.5-point favorite in many books, a moneyline around -115 for the Red Wolves and -105 for the Bears, Line movement has been telling: The game opened with Missouri State as a +2.5 underdog but has tightened, even flipping to the Bears as -1.5 favorites in some spots, reflecting sharp money on the newcomers despite their interim coaching situation. This volatility underscores a market divided on two evenly matched teams with middling defenses and opportunistic offenses, setting up a potential one-score thriller.

Digging into the trends, both squads have been solid against the spread (ATS) this season, but Missouri State's resilience as an underdog stands out. The Bears finished 7-5 ATS overall, going 3-3 in games where they were catching 1.5 points or more, including outright upsets like a 21-17 road win over Liberty as 7.5-point dogs on November 8. Arkansas State, meanwhile, posted an impressive 8-4 ATS mark but struggled as favorites, covering just 1-3 times when laying points and dropping two straight-up games in that role against UL Monroe and Southern Miss. Over/under trends lean toward the under for both, with only four of each team's 12 games eclipsing the total, thanks to defenses that rank outside the top 100 in SP+ (Missouri State 109th, Arkansas State 105th) but have shown bend-don't-break tendencies in low-possession affairs. Historically, in similar neutral-site pick'em scenarios since 2020, underdogs like Missouri State (when initially lined as such) have covered at a 53.4% clip when the line shifts against the favorite by 2.5 points or more, adding a layer of value to the Bears if you're grabbing them at +1.5 or better.

From an angles perspective, the quarterback matchup tilts toward Missouri State's Jacob Clark, who threw for 2,895 yards with a 65.1% completion rate, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, often exploiting weak secondaries like Arkansas State's, which ranks a dismal 131st in defensive success rate against the pass. Clark's protection has been spotty—he's been sacked 40 times, second-worst nationally, but the Bears' late-season surge (averaging 6.74 yards per play in November) came via a balanced attack featuring running back Shomari Lawrence, who's just 36 yards shy of 1,000 on the ground with seven scores. Arkansas State's Jaylen Raynor brings dual-threat upside with over 3,500 total yards and a career-high 67.2% completion, but the Red Wolves' offense ranks 107th in yards per play and has been turnover-prone, committing multiple giveaways in four losses. Defensively, Arkansas State tied for 28th in sacks, which could pressure Clark, but Missouri State's pass rush isn't far behind, and the Red Wolves allowed over seven yards per play in non-conference tilts against Power Four foes like Arkansas and Iowa State. Coaching adds intrigue: Missouri State is under interim Nick Petrino after Ryan Beard's departure to Coastal Carolina, but minimal opt-outs (just one starter in the portal) suggest high motivation for the program's first FBS bowl appearance.

Expert consensus leans Missouri State's way, with outlets like ESPN's Adam Rittenberg projecting a 34-30 Bears win, citing their passing edge in a high-scoring affair, and The Athletic's staff favoring them 7-4 outright. numberFire gives Missouri State a 61.6% win probability, while Covers.com's Andrew Caley highlights the Bears' undervalued status as FCS transitions often surprise in bowls. . Both teams excel in one-score games,Missouri State went 5-2 in such contests, Arkansas State 4-3pointing to a tight finish where the Bears' momentum from a five-game win streak earlier could prove decisive.

Putting it all together, the best bet here is Missouri State -1 , or even the moneyline at -120 if available, as the Bears are undervalued newcomers with a potent passing attack poised to exploit Arkansas State's secondary vulnerabilities. Shop lines across books, as the spread's minor swings could yield in spots for extra cushion.